UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit

Date: Saturday, January 2nd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Robbie Lawler (26-10) vs. Carlos Condit (30-8) (Welterweight Championship)
Stipe Miocic (13-2) vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-10) (Heavyweight)
Albert Tumenov (16-2) vs. Lorenz Larkin (16-4) (Welterweight)
Diego Brandao (20-10) vs. Brian Ortega (9-0) (Featherweight)
Abel Trujillo (12-7) vs. Tony Sims (12-3) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Michael McDonald (16-3) vs. Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5) (Bantamweight)
Kyle Noke (22-7-1) vs. Alex Morono (11-3) (Welterweight)
Justine Kish (4-0) vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-4) (Women's Strawweight)
Drew Dober (15-7) vs. Scott Holtzman (8-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Dustin Poirier (18-4) vs. Joseph Duffy (14-1) (Lightweight)
Joe Soto (15-4) vs. Michinori Tanaka (10-1) (Bantamweight)
Edgar Garcia (14-4) vs. Sheldon Westcott (8-3-1) (Welterweight)

Other

- The event was expected to feature a UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship bout between undefeated champion Ronda Rousey and Holly Holm, a former 18-time boxing world champion in three weight classes. However, the bout was moved to UFC 193 after a thumb injury to UFC Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler forced him out of his title bout against Carlos Condit, a former WEC Welterweight champion and former interim UFC Welterweight champion. The Lawler/Condit pairing will remain intact and has been rescheduled to headline this event.
- A welterweight bout between Sheldon Westcott and Edgar Garcia, originally scheduled for UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant was moved to this event.
- A lightweight bout between Dustin Poirier and Joseph Duffy was originally booked as main event for UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs. Smolka. However, the bout was canceled on fight week due to Duffy sustaining a concussion during a sparring session. The fight was later rescheduled for this event.
- Neil Magny was briefly scheduled to face Stephen Thompson at the event. However on November 3, Magny was pulled from the pairing in favor of a match-up with Kelvin Gastelum at The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 2 Finale. Thompson was expected to remain on the card, but on December 13 it was announced that he was going to face former UFC Welterweight champion Johny Hendricks at UFC 196.
- Russell Doane was briefly scheduled to face Michinori Tanaka at the event. However, Doane was pulled from the pairing for undisclosed reasons and replaced by former Bellator Featherweight champion and one time UFC Bantamweight Championship challenger Joe Soto.
- Erik Koch was expected to face Drew Dober at this event. However on December 4, Koch was forced to pull out of the event due to injury and was replaced by Scott Holtzman.
- Kelvin Gastelum was expected to face Kyle Noke at this event. However on December 22, Gastelum was forced to pull out due to a wrist injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Alex Morono.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Condit > Lawler
• Arlovski > Miocic
• Larkin > Tumenov
• Ortega > Brandao
• Sims > Trujillo
• McDonald > Kanehara
• Noke > Morono
• Kish > Ansaroff
• Holtzman > Dober
• Duffy > Poirier
• Tanaka > Soto
• Westcott > Garcia

Some bold picks. I like it.

Lawler > Condit - While I won't be picking against the champ here, I do think it's a great style matchup for Condit both for potential USADA reasons and because he's great vs non-wrestlers and has the particular skill-set (kicking game, length, and cardio) that could get him the 'W', but he's never looked as good as Lawler has looked since his resurgence. I'm surprised the odds are so sharp and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I think if they both bring their 'A Games' Lawler wins, but it's definitely one of the closest championship fights on paper I can think of. Weigh-ins and fight lead-up will be key for me, I want to see what they look and sound like, particularly Lawler.

Miocic > Arlovski - Hoping it gets bet down to closer to a pickem, Arlovski is a tough match-up for Miocic potentially, but its also potentially a squash match depending on what versions show up. Nothing would shock me here but an Arlovski decision would be pretty surprising.

Tumenov v Larkin - Pickem - Awesome fight, really like the over 1.5 just because both guys are gonna respect each other and while they both throw fire, Tumenov seems pretty impossible to get to clean and Larkin will have to respect Tumenov or hell get starched. Still, Larkin is fucking ridiculously athletic and skilled, I'm stoked for this one

Ortega v Brandao - Pickem - Don't understand the Ortega hype. He's super exciting and obviously has one of the best jitz games in MMA but why he's a big favorite is beyond me. I know Brandao has cardio issues that could play into Ortega's hands nicely, but he's also just as good of a fighter....

Sims > Trujillo - Should be a pure boxing fight with MMA gloves and should come down to Sims chin. If he can take a few big shots, he should be fine since he's the better technical fighter and Trujillo can't go a hard 3 at his own pace. If not, he's probably fucked.

McDonald > Kanehara - Squash match if McDonald returns in anywhere near good form.

Noke > Morono - From what I've seen of Morono, he's drawing close to dead vs the last version of Noke we saw, but I have no clue since that was only 1 fight. If anyone knows anything more about the guy, I'm open to re-thinking it.

Kish > Ansaroff - Kish should absolutely fuck up Ansaroff. I had no clue who she was but early on researching I realized she had a lot of hype and watching her fight vs Randa Markos, I instantly was on the bandwagon. Bitch is good, well-rounded, and has serious power for 115 women. She should probably find a finish via beatdown. Unless, I'm missing something, Ansaroff is mediocre and this is some intentionally 1-sided matchmaking.

Holtzman > Dober - First actual test for Holtzman, will be nice to see how he deals with adversity if there is any. His first fight was against Anthony Christodoulou and honestly that might be the worst modern-day UFC fighter of... the modern-day (excluding heavyweights ofcourse). I think he should fight CM Punk at 170. I just wanted to put that in writing so if they make that fight, I can say I called it. #narcissist

Poirier > Duffy - Not confident, but confident that the odds were wayyyy wide. This isn't the type of fight where anyone really knows who will win IMO.

Soto > Tanaka - What is Tanaka's path to victory - having improved drastically and Soto being shot I guess. I feel like people will be fading Soto here but really, he's a damn solid fighter. I think the UFC is giving him a layup for taking Dillashaw and than Birchak - pretty tough intro.

Wescott v Garcia - Dunno, don't care, neither guy has any upside

+ Show Spoiler +

this main event is going to be a war, Lawler took so much damage the last fight, good thing he doesnt spar because he is going to age a few years in one night again.

Miocic is going to shit on Arlovski, he is a legitimate young contender, Arlovski is just an old dog on a good streak

Wtf Holtzman's career trajectory is kinda impressive... Started competing ammy in 2010 at age 27, turned pro in 2012, made the UFC after than 3 years as a pro...

miocic looks like bisping on roids

On December 26 2015 10:48 Baalim wrote: this main event is going to be a war, Lawler took so much damage the last fight, good thing he doesnt spar because he is going to age a few years in one night again. Miocic is going to shit on Arlovski, he is a legitimate young contender, Arlovski is just an old dog on a good streak

He started sparring again when he moved to ATT. That along with his drop to WW, and maybe some ATT sauce, is probably the reason for his big resurgence.

Can Arlovski sustainably outbox Miocic?

Can't really pick against Lawler after his performance against Rory. It was incredible. Condit can definitely cause some trouble, but the odds should not be this close, imo. Betting Lawler big at -115.

Miocic holds advantage over Arlovski pretty much everywhere except power. No way Arlovski outboxing him, I think Stipe is the better boxer, but he can definitely put him away if he lands his right hand. I think this fight has the potential to be really boring snoozefest with a lot of clinching and a close decision at the end, so I am unsure about betting.

If Arlovski can't sustainably outbox him, I don't think he can win. I don't think Arlovski holds the advantage in power either, only speed and footwork really.

Arlovski has changed a lot from his earlier days into a speed movement fighter with experience, thats what got him back.

I was thinking about betting Stipe -235. I love Arlovski but I don't think he has improved as much as people feel he has.

Thinking of betting Lawler at -110 too. Kind of scared of that one though.

I'd like to see Condit win and he matches up nicely against Lawler. Effin Lawler comes off as a turd to me... plus he beat Rory, who i have taken a liking to. Arlovski vs Miocic is a coinflip. Miocic looks better but Arlovski has that wildness. Awesome card.

On December 27 2015 20:52 Nazgul wrote: I was thinking about betting Stipe -235. I love Arlovski but I don't think he has improved as much as people feel he has. Thinking of betting Lawler at -110 too. Kind of scared of that one though.

Easiest bet in the world on Stipe, Arlovski is less hittable than before and doesnt commit as much, kind of the same thing Overeem did but on a much lesser degree, Stipe has a granite chin and went toe to toe with Cigano on striking.

Alright I went for it, pretty big too I feel the same, $675 at -225. I swear I think Arlovski has improved and is smarter, but is also on a bit of a lucky streak.

- The win vs Schaub was close and umimpressive
- The win vs Browne was like playing Russian roulette he was +350
- Good matchup vs Mir (I bet on Arlovski)

While I think Lawler is the better fighter due to defensive wrestling, I think this is a good match up for Condit. Lawler rarely uses his wrestling offensively, and has had cardio issues in a 5 round fight often taking rounds off to reserve energy.

I think Condit will get hit a lot, but his pace, cardio, chin and volume can definitely win him this fight. Robbie basically doesn't check kicks nor use them to get takedowns so Condit can probably kick him at will out of range. I think it's gonna be a close, competitive war that will come down to who wins the close rounds.

But who knows Robbie might surprise me and use takedowns to win rounds.

Condit > Lawler
Miocic > Arlovski

think those will be my bets, I feel very strongly about the Miocic fight, and closer about the Condit fight.

On December 28 2015 21:17 Mortensen8 wrote:

Conor McGregor worked with Ido Portal for his movement.
Alistair Overeem worked with Wim Hoff for his breathing/cardio.
Carlos Condit is using MovNat in his training.

This could be a sign!

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Really looking forward to this card for the obvious main event but really also Larkin/Tumenov. Potential for a bit of a too careful fight because like sober said, I'm sure they'll respect each other a good bit to start but the ceilings of both are so high such that it's going to be interesting regardless. Always have been high on Larkin's potential and Tumenov straight up looked like he had the technical skills with his hands to hang with even upper level pro boxers...except looks like he has that same level with his kicks as well. I think I'm going to go with Larkin at odds hoping his athleticism is a bit blinding for Tumenov but still fully expecting the good chance that Larkin slips up somewhere and gets slept in a very quick sequence. Either way, really going to enjoy the fight I think.

Going to go with Condit. Aboard the movement train. Though Condit's been using heavy lateral movement training since ever anyways. Expecting Condit to come out with a similar'ish gameplan to the one he used vs Nick Diaz except I think he actually will trade a bit more after a little bit because I think he can and will inflict more damage on Lawler than he did on Nick during the early rounds. But can't ever be too strong against Lawler coz well...yeah...everyone's already said why. Dude's kind of an animal.

For those who play DraftKings, should take advantage of Kyle Noke being priced still as he was going to be vs Gastelum. Almost a 3:1 favorite vs the replacement nobody who I know nothing about yet he's priced like he's still a 3:1 dog instead.

Stipe >>> Arlovski. By a lot. Not that I think Stipe will finish him a majority of time but I just don't see Arlovski's paths to victory besides the usual puncher's chance into a quick flurry thing.

Going to be on Kish pretty good. Really going to go behind any new chick with previous striking credentials. It's clearly where women's MMA is headed since a lot of the 'old school' chicks really were sub-par athletes in general.

I still haven't seen Duffy fight. Should get on that soon before the event. Saw picture of Poirier somewhere recently though and he was looking like a borderline 170-185'er. Not sure what that will mean for this fight.

On December 30 2015 21:45 iakim322 wrote: I still haven't seen Duffy fight. Should get on that soon before the event. Saw picture of Poirier somewhere recently though and he was looking like a borderline 170-185'er. Not sure what that will mean for this fight.

Definitely worth checking out, won't take long to see why the hype is there (adding onto the fact that he beat Conor, etc). He has looked tremendous. When Duffy gets into a rhythm on the feet, he looks God-Like. The issue is that his two UFC opponents, particularly Jake Lindsey, are glorified regional fighters. I was impressed with his bout with Jorge simply because he displayed the all-around goods.

The thing about those performances though, are that he faced zero adversity, wasn't tested defensively, and has obviously suffered the concussion since (which to me negates the obvious chin advantage that he would have on paper).

Also worth noting that the oddsmakers saw the huge influx of money on Duffy for the first fight, and didn't set the odds any wider for this fight. I know they are covered either way by the 2-way action that has come in but to me, this is a clear sign that are inducing fish action on Duffy early (which came), and the sharp money came in later on Duffy at +180 - +200 which I feel is far too wide.

I note this because I think we can make a lot more money this year by keying in on what the oddsmakers are intending when they set the lines, and simply betting at optimal times. The ROI difference would have been massive for me if I played certain fights at better times last year. Generally this means hitting favorites early and dogs late, but not always, and I do feel that it is predictable if enough wisdom is applied. Ofcourse I didn't put any of said strategy into practice for this card because I simply jumped the gun like a degenerate, but I have a clear plan for UFC FN 81 (the Dillashaw/Cruz card that is coming up) as far as who I will be slamming early, and what I will be looking to get my dogs or close favorties at.

When you think about it, the fight game is so different than NFL, Soccer, etc because those lines are set very accurately and only generally move 5-10 percent max, whereas MMA or Boxing odds regularly move 50-100 percent. Some of this can be attributed to the transparency and constant new information that we get as fight fans, but it doesn't account for the extreme movement. This in it of itself shows that MMA betting can be much more profitable if done optimally IMO.

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Prop plays I've made thus far:

Larkin round 2 +1000 $2 for $20
Larkin round 3 +1600 $2 for $32
Brandao round 1 +735 $5 for $36.75
Kanehara/McDonald ITD -155 $38.75 for $25
Dober submission +1025 $2 for $20.50
Sims round 3 +1200 $2 for $24
Sims KO/TKO/DQ +290 $10 for $29
Poirier KO/TKO/DQ +600 $10 for $60
Tanaka submission +700 $2 for $14
Westcott KO/TKO/DQ +1025 $2 for $20.50
Noke/Morono ITD +135 $10 for $13.50

I should've only bet $5 instead of $10 on: Sims KO/TKO/DQ +290, and Poirier KO/TKO/DQ +600, but I got the opening lines and rushed my bet. I'll have to bet more on Sims' ML at some point, and I'm still waiting to get a good line on Duffy's ML.

I only bet a parlay on Miocic + Lawler. Really confident on those two.

On December 31 2015 14:06 alejandicto wrote: I only bet a parlay on Miocic + Lawler. Really confident on those two.

good parlay imo

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If you have a really strong feeling Lawler will win, there's a prop at 5dimes that should interest you: Lawler points handicap +5½ -180

I feel like a fish betting on Arlovski after reading this thread..

My logic was that Stipe has lost to Struve and JdS, and has beaten Mark Hunt by TKO in round 5 and beaten Roy Nelson and Gonzaga by decision in round 3. How is that impressive? He also beat a bum looking guy in round 1 with 2 punches, so he has some power, but more than Arlovski?

Arlovski beat Brown handily by playing counter striker and following up with a rush attack when Brown was hurt, maybe a bit lucky, but he still looked good for the most part. His weaknesses to me seem to be his notorious chin and reliance on punching..

Is Stipe really that good?

Also, Arlovski has the highest takedown defense in the UFC according to wikipedia, so it's unlikely he will be put in a bad position on the ground.

^ I bet Arlovski early at +200 for 2 units, but I've been waiting for the line to get better on Stipe so I can place a bigger bet on him and get rid of my Arlovski bet. After I did my research, I had a better idea of how they match up, and I think Stipe will win a decision or a late finish.

Arlovski vs. Browne = 2 former training partners who knew each other well. Browne has always been questioned for his actual skills in MMA, and his lack of striking/defense showed in his fights with Werdum and Arlovski, which Arlovski and Jackson's MMA already knew of beforehand.

You can talk about Arlovski's good TDD, but he hasn't faced anyone with good take downs in his return to the UFC, which spans 4 fights (all of his take down stats are either old, or just not accurate in the grand scheme of things). Schaub is a boxer with good BJJ but not good wrestling; Bigfoot is a slow sack of meat who has a black belt in BJJ that we have never seen him use in the UFC; Browne is considered an MMA fighter, in that he does everything, but he's not good at any of them, he just has heavy hands and a sick good chin and cardio; Mir is a BJJ fighter with improved boxing and a good chin for the most part, unless you have that 1-punch KO power and can land on him and follow-up real fast.

The bet I like most in this fight is Over 1.5 rounds. I have o1.5 @ -145 for 1.5 units.

Thanks for the post, makes sense

Robbie Lawler (170) vs. Carlos Condit (169)
Andrei Arlovski (246.5) vs. Stipe Miocic (241.5)
Lorenz Larkin (171) vs. Albert Tumenov (171)
Diego Brandao (146) vs. Brian Ortega (145.5)
Tony Sims (156) vs. Abel Trujillo (156)
Masanori Kanehara (135) vs. Michael McDonald (136)
Alex Morono (170) vs. Kyle Noke (170.5)
Nina Ansaroff (116) vs. Justine Kish (116)
Drew Dober (155.5) vs. Scott Holtzman (155.5)
Joseph Duffy (155) vs. Dustin Poirier (155.5)
Joe Soto (135.5) vs. Michinori Tanaka (135.5)
Edgar Garcia (170) vs. Sheldon Westcott (170)

On December 30 2015 22:57 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 30 2015 21:45 iakim322 wrote: I still haven't seen Duffy fight. Should get on that soon before the event. Saw picture of Poirier somewhere recently though and he was looking like a borderline 170-185'er. Not sure what that will mean for this fight. I note this because I think we can make a lot more money this year by keying in on what the oddsmakers are intending when they set the lines, and simply betting at optimal times. The ROI difference would have been massive for me if I played certain fights at better times last year. Generally this means hitting favorites early and dogs late, but not always, and I do feel that it is predictable if enough wisdom is applied. Ofcourse I didn't put any of said strategy into practice for this card because I simply jumped the gun like a degenerate, but I have a clear plan for UFC FN 81 (the Dillashaw/Cruz card that is coming up) as far as who I will be slamming early, and what I will be looking to get my dogs or close favorties at. When you think about it, the fight game is so different than NFL, Soccer, etc because those lines are set very accurately and only generally move 5-10 percent max, whereas MMA or Boxing odds regularly move 50-100 percent. Some of this can be attributed to the transparency and constant new information that we get as fight fans, but it doesn't account for the extreme movement. This in it of itself shows that MMA betting can be much more profitable if done optimally IMO.

Great points. Don't disagree with a thing. So yeah you go ahead and keep the train going and I'll follow along here and there with the rest of the sheep

On January 01 2016 23:59 PuertoRican wrote: Robbie Lawler (170) vs. Carlos Condit (169) Andrei Arlovski (246.5) vs. Stipe Miocic (241.5) Lorenz Larkin (171) vs. Albert Tumenov (171) Diego Brandao (146) vs. Brian Ortega (145.5) Tony Sims (156) vs. Abel Trujillo (156) Masanori Kanehara (135) vs. Michael McDonald (136) Alex Morono (170) vs. Kyle Noke (170.5) Nina Ansaroff (116) vs. Justine Kish (116) Drew Dober (155.5) vs. Scott Holtzman (155.5) Joseph Duffy (155) vs. Dustin Poirier (155.5) Joe Soto (135.5) vs. Michinori Tanaka (135.5) Edgar Garcia (170) vs. Sheldon Westcott (170)

Morono def. looks the part of a late replacement. Flabby. Though I have no idea who he is so I'm not sure if that's somewhat normal for him.

Still haven't seen Kish fight but one look at her appearance just screams huge athletic advantage over Ansaroff.

Was leaning Sims but thought Trujillo looked better than he has before. Bit of a less weight drained look.

Condit looks like he's in fantastic shape. Then again him and Robbie (these days) almost always are. Can't imagine how this isn't going to be a great fight.

On January 02 2016 01:36 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On January 01 2016 23:59 PuertoRican wrote: Robbie Lawler (170) vs. Carlos Condit (169) Andrei Arlovski (246.5) vs. Stipe Miocic (241.5) Lorenz Larkin (171) vs. Albert Tumenov (171) Diego Brandao (146) vs. Brian Ortega (145.5) Tony Sims (156) vs. Abel Trujillo (156) Masanori Kanehara (135) vs. Michael McDonald (136) Alex Morono (170) vs. Kyle Noke (170.5) Nina Ansaroff (116) vs. Justine Kish (116) Drew Dober (155.5) vs. Scott Holtzman (155.5) Joseph Duffy (155) vs. Dustin Poirier (155.5) Joe Soto (135.5) vs. Michinori Tanaka (135.5) Edgar Garcia (170) vs. Sheldon Westcott (170) Morono def. looks the part of a late replacement. Flabby. Though I have no idea who he is so I'm not sure if that's somewhat normal for him. Still haven't seen Kish fight but one look at her appearance just screams huge athletic advantage over Ansaroff. Was leaning Sims but thought Trujillo looked better than he has before. Bit of a less weight drained look. Condit looks like he's in fantastic shape. Then again him and Robbie (these days) almost always are. Can't imagine how this isn't going to be a great fight.

Lawler always deliver great fights. i'm sure it will be a great one.

I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did.

I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds.

just jumped through the weigh-in but it seemed as if Robbie Lawler has some sort of injury on his right leg. Watch how he left the stage at the stairs and the walk to the backstage area. He seemed to have some sort of problem with his leg, just seemed unnatural in his movement. Carlos on the other hand looked 100% so not sure if it makes a big difference but if Robbie cannot get in and out of exchanges as fluidly then Carlos has an advantage with his range / kicks / avoiding shots and getting into exchanges. Maybe I am off here but since you guys bet real monies it might be of interest

On January 02 2016 14:46 FiSheYe wrote: just jumped through the weigh-in but it seemed as if Robbie Lawler has some sort of injury on his right leg. Watch how he left the stage at the stairs and the walk to the backstage area. He seemed to have some sort of problem with his leg, just seemed unnatural in his movement. Carlos on the other hand looked 100% so not sure if it makes a big difference but if Robbie cannot get in and out of exchanges as fluidly then Carlos has an advantage with his range / kicks / avoiding shots and getting into exchanges. Maybe I am off here but since you guys bet real monies it might be of interest

omg u scare me xD Lawler is my biggest bet.

On January 02 2016 12:34 Minsk wrote: I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did. I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds.

hard to say man. Condit was never KO before, only stopped by sub or injury. Robbie isn't subbing Condit, and injury won't happen to him every fights.
Lawler took Macdonald/Hendricks's best shots for 75 minutes and didn't get KO, hes unlikely to get stopped.

That being said, it does last 4 1/2 for even odds, which is pretty interesting. I personally won't bet on under or over.

On January 02 2016 14:46 FiSheYe wrote: just jumped through the weigh-in but it seemed as if Robbie Lawler has some sort of injury on his right leg. Watch how he left the stage at the stairs and the walk to the backstage area. He seemed to have some sort of problem with his leg, just seemed unnatural in his movement. Carlos on the other hand looked 100% so not sure if it makes a big difference but if Robbie cannot get in and out of exchanges as fluidly then Carlos has an advantage with his range / kicks / avoiding shots and getting into exchanges. Maybe I am off here but since you guys bet real monies it might be of interest

Just from watching that, I don't think he's injured.

Robbie naturally walks stiff like that, and using the bars to skip steps on stairs doesn't mean much to me, as I've done it plenty of times in my life. Tons of fights jump up the stairs to skip steps, and using the bars to skip steps on the way down is the other side of that.

I'm on Condit, so I wouldn't mind if Robbie is injured pre-fight.

On January 02 2016 12:34 Minsk wrote: I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did. I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds.

Condit is probably the least 'stoppable' fighter I can think of at welter. Not sure where that would come from. Guy has been forever durable besides the Woodley injury (who was and probably always will be a bad matchup for him) and generally fights intelligently which adds to his durability.

On January 02 2016 21:10 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On January 02 2016 12:34 Minsk wrote: I'm pretty sure Joe Duffy is going to take apart Dustin Porier just like Connor did. I also like the U4.5 on Lawler x Condit, any thoughts about that? It seems like they're both quite dangerous and stoppable, and more than likely one of them goes down within 4.5 rounds. Condit is probably the least 'stoppable' fighter I can think of at welter. Not sure where that would come from. Guy has been forever durable besides the Woodley injury (who was and probably always will be a bad matchup for him) and generally fights intelligently which adds to his durability.

I agree that calling either guy 'stoppable' is foolish - they are both proven durable warriors with unbreakable hearts, but even with that said I'm still thinking about hitting the under.

I think it's kinda up to Condit as to whether or not this goes the distance. For one thing, when he opens up, he is more hit able but also a bit more dangerous (strike for strike) than Robbie, so if Condit plants down and trades, its in those moments where major violence will ensue. Robbie typically fights at his opponents pace with bursts of pure offense sprinkled in (completely unpredictable when he decides to go HAM, like in minute 1 of his second Hendricks fight).

If at any point in the first few rounds Condit wants to just say fuck it and go to war, I think the probability of a finish on both sides is pretty high... and he may do that if he doesn't feel like he's winning the points battle after a little while (I do for-see him playing it safe at first and trying to stay at kicking range like vs Diaz, take it to deep-waters, damage the legs, out-point, etc, but I don't think it will work with Robbie in terms of using that to win on points).

If the whole fight is fought at a moderate pace, there's still always a chance of a finish just because they are both so violent and yet either chin could go at any minute.

Finally, the obvious argument for the under, which is valid, is that there will be little to no stalling on the ground or in the clinch (maybe Robbie tries to stall in the clinch at certain points, but this would probably indicate that he's uncomfortable / tired and would not end well for him via Condit's knees and elbows). More exchanges = more finishes.

i went fairly big on under and ive earned myself the nickname "king of sport bets" amongst my peers, that must certainly mean something.

I like Condit tonight but I think it will be real close. I've bet against Lawler in pretty much every fight since he's been to the UFC and he's punished me repeatedly. I think his hot run will come to an end tonight.

It's hard to bet vs Robbie but the I also feel like Carlos may win just cause Robbie gets all aggro in the 1st round then has the capability to give away 2,3,4 rounds then come back.

I still ended up betting Robbie to win tho, and I also bet on under 4.5 rounds.

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Easy win for Westcott.

Hopefully the rest of the night goes this good.

Whatever on that decision. Soto won that fight. Bad bet on my end but still should've won.

close fight but 2-1 for Tanaka seemed right

Rd 1 neither guy does shit, Tanaka gets a TD, Soto almost locks up a fucking gogo-plata and does more damage off back. I'll score that for gogo any day of the week no matter what side of the aisle my money is on.

Tanaka easy rd 2.

Soto easy rd 3, maybe a 10-8.

29-28 or 29-27 Soto.

Nice win for Tanaka.

I had it Tanaka 29-28.

Of course Adalaide Byrd was the person who scored the fight for Joe Soto.

What a fucking fight man. Shoot that shit. Poirier is the fucking man.

On January 03 2016 00:35 PuertoRican wrote: Nice win for Tanaka. I had it Tanaka 29-28. Of course Adalaide Byrd was the person who scored the fight for Joe Soto.

MEDIA SCORES
Rob Tatum
CombatPress.com 29-28 Tanaka
Chris Nelson
Sherdog.com 29-28 Tanaka
MMAJunkie.com 29-28 Tanaka
Patrick Wyman
BleacherReport.com 29-28 Tanaka
Tim Burke
BloodyElbow.com 29-28 Tanaka
Brian Knapp
Sherdog.com 28-28 DRAW
MMABrasil.com.br 28-29 Soto
Dave Meltzer
Wrestling Observer 28-29 Soto
Craig Amos
BleacherReport.com 28-29 Soto
Nathan McCarter
BleacherReport.com 28-29 Soto
Tristen Critchfield
Sherdog.com 28-29 Soto
Paul Fontaine
WrestlingObserver.com 28-29 Soto
Nick Baldwin
BloodyElbow.com 28-29 Soto
Adrian MacNair
MMAMania.com 28-29 Soto
Shaun Al-Shatti
MMAFighting.com 28-29 Soto
Dallas Winston
BloodyElbow.com 27-30 Soto

W/E, guess I can't call robbery. But I can be mad ;P

Added the following:

+ Show Spoiler +

Nice performance by Drew Dober. I needed that win after Duffy couldn't stop the take downs.

Ansaroff vs. Kish was an exciting fight.

Kish fights like she doesn't give a fuck about her brain cells.

Did kish win? She got 3 but dunno about the first 2. Have her in everything

I had it 29-28 for Ansaroff.

30-27 by two judges is a joke. Robbery imo.

I had Kish. Was super unimpressed with her. 30-27 was a joke. It being a robbery is too much. I was expecting Kish by 29-28 x2 and one 29-28 for Ansaroff.

And okay with 29-28 x2 for Ansaroff. Minus the losing a bet part.

Dam thot noke won that

Another bad decision.

Let's see if they continue.

dude i didnt even stay for the decision, went to bathroom straight away, never thought Noke could lose that.

Noke won R1 and R3 very clearly. R2 was close.

Talk about luckboxing, I almost feel bad winning that -575 McDonald bet

Can't believe I still hit the u1.5 rounds after that bullshit from Michael McDonald...

ROFL. McDonald comes back looking as bad as possible and gets the 'W'. All I can say is phew.

No ppv hype with Dana and Joe? Or did I miss it

Tony Sims = clearly winning on the feet > dives for a take down > gets subbed for a guy who isn't known for submissions.

Great fight IQ, fucktard.

BEAUTIFUL

Brandao made a mistake but that was probably to happen at some point. Ortega just that next level jiu jitsu, beautiful stuff.

IMO - He showed a solid chin too but he won't be beating anyone better than Brandao on a consistent basis unless he learns to strike or wrestle. This is clearly his ceiling with his current game, and he barely eeked it out.

Added:

+ Show Spoiler +

Bookmaker hasn't opened up live betting, so I haven't been able to make any serious money tonight, especially since I've lost several bets.

I have no choice but to let my Larkin bets ride, unless BM opens up live betting some time soon.

I'd say Larkin won, nice. Hope the judges agree

Bleh robbery 2 imo

Edit. Not robbery I thought larkin won Rd 2 and 3 tho

Another loss. Not surprised, considering the way my night is going.

Still no live betting, so I'm not adding anything else to the rest of my bets. My remaining bets are:

Carlos Condit +100 $20 for $20
Condit/Lawler round 5 +1200 $2 for $24
Andrei Arlovski +200 $20 for $40
Arlovski/Miocic o1.5 -145 $21.75 for $15

Unreal. This is garbage. Should be up massive. Instead scraping by.

On the bright side, and I know the uneducated pleebs are booing, but that was an unreal fight.

Both unparalleled in what they do, great fight, I think either is live vs Lawler or Condit tbh. Larkin already beat Lawler at 85 but thats kind of irrelevant. I especially would favor Tumenov over Lawler. That would be an unreal fight. I think Tumenov sleeps him though.

I'm getting fucked so hard by bad decisions tonight

I bet on soto. http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6717/Michinori-Tanaka-vs-Joe-Soto
Majority said soto should have won

I bet on Noke. http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6721/Alex-Morono-vs-Kyle-Noke
Every media but one said noke should have won

and then i bet on larkin... =(

Ez win miocic. Ship the under too

Dam arlovski has 0 chin. Those looked like standard punches a fighter should eat...

FUCK.....................MY....................LIFE.....................

Another loss...

The Pitbull is back alright... Back to getting knocked the FUCK out...

Boom Stipe.

I've won 2 bets out of 13 bets so far.

Good day so far.. bleh

last bet is Robbie for the W and under 4.5 rounds.

i thought the punch behind the ear was pretty clean. not sure who else would take that and stay on his feet
also thought turmenov > larkin 29-28
not robbery imo but i can see why you gave larkin the 2nd round

I'm on Condit and the under here. Looking good.

Id be happy with Lawler itd because of stones bet. I'm hoping that happens cause this looks headed to decision

sick 5th roudn

What a war what a 5th. One of best rounds ever

are you srs? now that was a robbery

Some very sketchy judging tonight. Was that 10-8 lol?

omgoodness

won 3 out of 15 bets..

what the fuck????????????????

HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT CARLOS CONDIT LOST THAT???????????????????????


HDGKJ;J;JGHHHDGHJKJHKJHKJLKJKLJ

HOLY FUCK MOST RIGGED JUDGING I'VE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFE

IM SO FUCKING LUCKYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

i lost all night, went on tilt, and went almost all in on Lawler. THANKS JUDGES

Check the striking output: http://www.ufc.com/event/UFC195#howToWatchModule


Not even fucking close!

SOMEONE GOT PAID OFF HARD TO MAKE THAT JUDGMENT CALL. I.E. MONEY ON LAWLER.

Wtf???? What a robbery

ROFL, i was so hoping Condit stopped him cause judges... this must be the worst robbery i've seen.

I was betting on Lawler but I honestly think he lost the 1st/3rd/4th rounds. Maybe 10-8 5th?

thats some machida v. shogun shit right there... sure if the fight is a draw you gotta give it to the champ but cmon robbie did nothing that fight cept the last round.

i had lawler winning roudns 2 e 5 but he only won round 2 because of that knockdown, cuz condit was dominating before and dominated after it iirc. but 1-3-4 were pretty clear condit
felt like lawler was walking back and head hunting for most of the fight, it's a shame he won

Wow. Unreal. I scored it for Condit. What a fucking fight. I'm so pissed that went the distance but I can't even hate.

I really don't understand it tho.

Condit RAPED Lawler in R1 and R4. there is absolutly no way a judge can gave any of these 2 rounds to Lawler.
R2 can go to lawler, but i gave it to condit
R3 should be condit
R5 should be lawler.

INTERESTING DECISION

Condit's chin is fucking iron man. Lawler got hurt as expected but I thought Condit would put the finishing touches or run into a bomb he couldn't eat. Both happened multiple times, yet both guys just war'ed.

That was absolutely one of the best fights of all time on a round by round scale, it was pure joy.

Lost $107 on the night and can't even complain despite some robberies. Just an epic, epic night of fights.

And fwiw, if the split went Condit way, I'd be up, so I'm not happy about that robbery. Bullshit is what it was.

should've been 49-46 condit but no way lawler should win wtf was that obv I bet on condit lol

On January 03 2016 05:37 soberstone wrote: Condit's chin is fucking iron man. Lawler got hurt as expected but I thought Condit would put the finishing touches or run into a bomb he couldn't eat. Both happened multiple times, yet both guys just war'ed. That was absolutely one of the best fights of all time on a round by round scale, it was pure joy. Lost $107 on the night and can't even complain despite some robberies. Just an epic, epic night of fights. And fwiw, if the split went Condit way, I'd be up, so I'm not happy about that robbery. Bullshit is what it was.

was the u4.5 a good bet at all ? condit dsnt seem like he can be humanly knocked out

Yea super sick fights despite the BS judging decisions that cost $

That was some bullshit decision... But absolutely unreal 5th round.

Like the kish fight I was even on Kish and found the 30-0 in her favor off. And all splits? These judges agree on anything?

Unfortunately bad judging tonight is probably as much of a story as anything.

Soto, Ansaroff, Noke, Larkin, Condit - All bad decisions IMO and in 2/3 of public's opinion as I see it in this thread and on twitter that they got ripped off

Condit got robbed, but pretty amazing two fights in a row for Robbie so I can't be too mad about it.

On January 03 2016 05:51 soberstone wrote: Unfortunately bad judging tonight is probably as much of a story as anything. Soto, Ansaroff, Noke, Larkin, Condit - All bad decisions IMO and in 2/3 of public's opinion as I see it in this thread and on twitter that they got ripped off

actually public agrees with tumenov decision. I don't.

Round 3 is questionable.

Carlos was super active, I dno if that was an illusion that made me feel like he was winning or what.. I don't even know I'm just glad Robbie won

Rewatching round 3, I could see it being a toss up depending on how you value volume vs power shots.

On January 03 2016 06:01 gebbstet wrote: Judges scorecards

MMA Media scores: http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6727/Robbie-Lawler-vs-Carlos-Condit

After some thought, i think this is what happened.
Judges saw it as this:
10-9 condit
10-9 lawler
10-9 condit
10-9 condit
10-8 lawler

They didn't wanna make it a draw, so they gave the "close" r3 to lawler.

that was an unreal fight

going into the 5th, i thought it was 2-2 and condit looked like he was winning round 5 until Lawler just connected multiple times on an insane last 1:00 or so volley of haymakers.

i don't really quite understand the judging in MMA sometimes. seems like a lot of the judges go by a different set of rules. If you're judging on pure strikes landed/attempted and activity, i don't see how you can't give it to Condit. if you go by damage done and score more for the guy that gets the knock downs, then i could see an argument for Lawler

tbh, i thought Lawler won the fight before the decision was announced (and i bet on Condit)

I'm glad to see the general consensus here feel the same way I do, what a shame. It's idiotic that a few morons can take away what Carlos just did, it's a robbery, his belt, his win, blabla, fucking sucks :-(

On January 03 2016 05:51 soberstone wrote: Unfortunately bad judging tonight is probably as much of a story as anything. Soto, Ansaroff, Noke, Larkin, Condit - All bad decisions IMO and in 2/3 of public's opinion as I see it in this thread and on twitter that they got ripped off

Larkin v Tumenov:
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6725/Albert-Tumenov-vs-Lorenz-Larkin

Most people seem to have it for Tumenov. I need to rewatch it, but what I do know is that Tumenov needs to implement a kick defense that isn't "bite down on mouth piece and counter". He ate an obscene amount of body kicks vs Musoke a few fights back (I have no fucking idea how he came on so strong in the 2nd and 3rd round there), and again today (tho leg kicks instead of body).

He's been talked up a bunch but I'm really not liking what I'm seeing kick defense wise...

Noke v Morono decision is obviously a joke, only 1 outlet scored it for Morono:
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6721/Alex-Morono-vs-Kyle-Noke

Ansaroff v Kish, I didn't watch closely enough to have a strong opinion on but seems people agree with you:
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6720/Justine-Kish-vs-Nina-Ansaroff

Tanaka vs Soto, I thought was really close. Depends on how you score the ground exchanges, since Tanaka got it there but then immediately got into trouble... I think Soto deserved it probably, but was close and not as bad as the others. Soto didn't seem super upset about it either after the fight.
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6717/Michinori-Tanaka-vs-Joe-Soto

Btw, apparently I'm the only one that thinks this but... I thought the main event was shit outside of round 5, Lawler looked super sloppy and either an active kicker is just his kryptonite (since he had 0 upper body movement) or something was wrong with him. Condit looked sharp, good gameplan, deserved to win and I hope he gets a rematch. I hope Lawler comes in with a better gameplan/preparation if so, otherwise it will be boring as fuck too (I don't blame Condit at all btw, Lawler's inability to engage and how sloppy he looked was really annoying to me, Condit did excellent). He kind of got reset everytime one of the distance maintaining kicks were thrown and just looked like he had no good way in.

Condit post fight interview humblest of all time, much respect.

On January 03 2016 06:27 Floofy wrote: After some thought, i think this is what happened. Judges saw it as this: 10-9 condit 10-9 lawler 10-9 condit 10-9 condit 10-8 lawler They didn't wanna make it a draw, so they gave the "close" r3 to lawler.

I'm pretty sure they write down their score round by round, don't think they can retroactively change round scores...?

On January 03 2016 03:24 PuertoRican wrote: Tony Sims = clearly winning on the feet > dives for a take down > gets subbed for a guy who isn't known for submissions. Great fight IQ, fucktard.

I thought the takedown was pretty nice timing wise, he just fucked up leaving his neck exposed.

On January 03 2016 03:51 soberstone wrote: Brandao made a mistake but that was probably to happen at some point. Ortega just that next level jiu jitsu, beautiful stuff. IMO - He showed a solid chin too but he won't be beating anyone better than Brandao on a consistent basis unless he learns to strike or wrestle. This is clearly his ceiling with his current game, and he barely eeked it out.

Has Brandao always used such Peek-a-boo mike tyson esque head/upper body movement? Thought he looked pretty good tonight, though haven't watched any of his fights since McGregor one I think.

Just downloaded and watched. So many bullshit decisions... MMA betting is fun.

What a great fight, Lawler and Condit are superhumans. Going into the 5th round I had it 2-1-1 Condit actually with a tie for round 3. That said I really would have been fine with it going either way, but a draw would have been the best outcome. I should still re-watch round 3 sometime, but I don't rate Condit's activity with punches as high as Lawlers and overall felt it was very even when accounting for power vs volume.

Happy with the bet on Miocic, Arlovski's chin really is not there. Good start to the year

I just re-watched the main event.

Initially I gave Condit 1,3,5 however after re-watching it, round 3 Carlos was super active throwing alot but not really landed anything much, compared to Robbie's aggression + power shots which looked like most landed.

Like I said in my previous post, this was probably the illusion that gave me the feeling Carlos won the 3rd when I watched it live because he moved and threw a lot.

I rewatched round 3.

Condit had double the SS, but it is true at least half of his strikes were tiny kicks which didn't really do anything, and Lawler's strikes were powerfull, so if you judged it by damage/power, i can definetly give the round to lawler.

That being said, the judges are not supposed to go by damage from what i understand of MMA scoring. I have no idea how you can give this fight to Lawler, but then give the fight to GSP in his fight against Hendricks.

Judges needs to be consistent, not "Well tonight i think power is important because i feel blood thirsty". "Ok tonight, fuck power, i'm analysing the fight based on volume".
Its like judges have no training and just go based on feelings or something.

I would wish the UFC would just score fights based on MMA decisions's scores. I usually almost always agree with the majority in that site (once in a while i don't, like the Larkin fight, but i can definetly understand why the fight was given to Tumenov. Its definetly not a robbery type of decision.).

Maybe they should have judges that value diffrent aspects on purpose. They tell one to lean towards power, one to lean towards volume, one for aggression and conditioning.

On January 03 2016 05:41 MiPwnYa wrote: Show nested quote + On January 03 2016 05:37 soberstone wrote: Condit's chin is fucking iron man. Lawler got hurt as expected but I thought Condit would put the finishing touches or run into a bomb he couldn't eat. Both happened multiple times, yet both guys just war'ed. That was absolutely one of the best fights of all time on a round by round scale, it was pure joy. Lost $107 on the night and can't even complain despite some robberies. Just an epic, epic night of fights. And fwiw, if the split went Condit way, I'd be up, so I'm not happy about that robbery. Bullshit is what it was. was the u4.5 a good bet at all ? condit dsnt seem like he can be humanly knocked out

Dunno. Pretty sure any man can be humanly KO'd.

I will say that the only real true 'robbery' on the card was Noke - I stand by saying there is no way to score that fight in Morono's favor unless you are... a Moron.

The rest of card was just full of close fights and close decisions I didn't really like, I guess throwing the word robbery out is a bit much.

Welterweight is a weird division - I'd favor a lot of guys over the Lawler I saw last night and presume to see in the future but at the same time, I'm not sure if anyone besides Condit deserves a shot right now. I'd probably go ahead with a rematch. Woodley has an argument I guess.

Just a quick recent history lesson in split decisions and recent WW title fights.

GSP > Hendricks - Split
Hendricks > Lawler - Split
Lawler > Hendricks - Split
Lawler > MacDonald - Was gonna be a split for Rory if he finishes 5th round (on 2 judges cards, he was up 3-1)
Lawler > Condit - Split

Juicy trend in hindsight but I don't think the Ruthless One has another 5-round high-level title split type fight in him. If he proves me wrong, more power to the badass.

How much punishment a guy can take? Wow Condit is a fucking beast.

I like it as a casual, don't care about which way it went as this division just rocks, fights are so close at the top almost as if they are catching up on entertainment after GSP's retirement

GSP vs Lawler PLEASE! :D

Who would you favor?

My friend that went to see this fight in person said that he thought it was 2-2 going into the 5th round, largely based on how the crowd reacted to Lawler's strikes as opposed to Condit's.

On January 04 2016 13:12 Nazgul wrote: GSP vs Lawler PLEASE! :D Who would you favor?

I'd imagine this would look similar to GSP vs Koscheck 2, where GSP just tags him from range over and over again.

Lawler has fucking torched me, maybe I should stop betting against him.

Robbie Lawler is a boss. So is Carlos Condit. What a fight. Happy with the decision obv since I had quite a bit on Lawler, but def don't think it was a robbery. I scored it 3-2 for Condit, but 3rd round can go either way.

As for GSP - Lawler. Atm I would favor Lawler by TKO. I'll favor him against Woodley as well. I don't think Tyrone can take a 5 round fight against Lawler.

There are plenty of other guys in that division thought that will give Robbie a lot of trouble and I would favor them over him. That is one of the many reasons that make him such an exciting champion.

On January 04 2016 13:12 Nazgul wrote: GSP vs Lawler PLEASE! :D Who would you favor?

Agreed this would be amazing.

And its hard to say, i would probably bet on the dog.

Lawler has a good style to face GSP. One of the best TDD in ufc, mixed with a fairly good standup.
But GSP is GSP. He always finds a way to win.

Unless GSP happened to touch Lawler's chin and it finally gave out (which is bound to happen pretty soon) - he would, in my opinion, get absolutely murdered by Bob.

The days of being able to blast double and lay on a top tier 170 pounder are over. Hendricks is obv a better wrestler on paper than Robbie but his functional MMA TDD is actually no better, and he was able to completely nullify the TD. Prior to that, its been over 5 years since GSP actually out-wrestled a grappler - Koschek.

I would love for them to make this match as I'm quite sure the public would over-value GSP based on name value.

Lawler's TDD is super underrated, GSP would die against him

Happy I won my parlay (Miocic + Lawler) almost 100 bucks winning on this bet. But when the fight ended I was sure I had lost my bet.

thought GSP has been retired for a while?

On January 04 2016 13:12 Nazgul wrote: GSP vs Lawler PLEASE! :D Who would you favor?

Unless GSP returns as a shallow shell of himself he should rape Lawler

Are you sure about that Baal? Sure GSP is quite a bit more explosive than Macdonald, but striking wise I'm not sure he's better, and Robbie has really excellent takedown defense.

I guess GSP would never allow himself to get into the kind of stand up war that Macdonald/Lawler turned into, so he'd probably win it on points. But I don't think he'd destroy him at this point.

On January 05 2016 23:35 traxamillion wrote: thought GSP has been retired for a while?

Yah never officially though.

If Lawler wasn't so potentially shopworn at this point and GSP did come back to fight him, it could be one of those beautiful moments where the general perception is a full 5 years behind and the odds would be ludicrously off (not saying there aren't logical reasons for thinking GSP would win, but mostly it would just be hype money based on his popularity and record).

But because of the recent wars Brutal Bob has been in, I couldn't be super confident in him against any Elite fighter anymore. I think he reached his peak in the MacDonald fight. Robbie would amaze me if he won another war in a row (whether he deserved it or not) but I kinda hope they just give him Damien Maia to smash to pad his little insane 2 year legacy of violence and let the division flush out / MacDonald get healthy.

I will definitely bet on GSP by decision if he fights Lawler

GSP is past his prime, had 2 knee surgeries and the game has evolved a lot since his best days. He was having trouble standing against Johny Hendricks who is a southpaw and is just spamming his left hand, when he was not able to take him down. On top of that he was getting hurt in his recent fights and they were alot closer than before.

Now Robbie Lawler is a southpaw, which renders GSP best weapon standing up (his jab) not very effective and has insane TDD. Yes Lawler has been in some wars lately and I have no doubt that GSP can devise a gameplan where he uses kicks mixed with some takedowns to take a decision or even finish him, but the most probable outcome in my opinion is : Robbie finds him and takes him out by TKO ( don't see GSP withstanding Lawler's power) .

I would bet GSP at +200 for sure ^^

Don't think GSP will be at +200. I see him being favored by the bookies.

Yea it's really hard to say where GSP should be. I think he look significantly worse after his first knee surgery. He took more damage in his 3 fights after than basically his entire career combined. He looked significantly less explosive. Since then he's had another acl tear and knee surgery and has had two years off. I think the GSP we'll see would be a shell of his former self. Really hard to predict though tbh.

He is as professional as they come though so if he fights he'll be as ready as humanly possible.

its pretty much impossible to predict, thats why Im assuming he will return as he left, and I think all of you are overestimating Lawlers TD defense, the only fighter who has been able to stop GSPs takedown is Hendricks but he is in another level of wrestling compared to lawler

On January 06 2016 23:59 Baalim wrote: its pretty much impossible to predict, thats why Im assuming he will return as he left, and I think all of you are overestimating Lawlers TD defense, the only fighter who has been able to stop GSPs takedown is Hendricks but he is in another level of wrestling compared to lawler

But keep in mind Lawler can stop Hendricks's take downs.

Overall, i think GSP should be able to get take downs at some point in the fight, but i doubt he can take down Lawler at will like he can with guys like condit.
And i think the fight would go similar to hendricks vs lawler 1, where GSP has a bit the upper hand in striking, but gets much more damage done to himself.

On January 07 2016 02:24 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On January 06 2016 23:59 Baalim wrote: its pretty much impossible to predict, thats why Im assuming he will return as he left, and I think all of you are overestimating Lawlers TD defense, the only fighter who has been able to stop GSPs takedown is Hendricks but he is in another level of wrestling compared to lawler But keep in mind Lawler can stop Hendricks's take downs. Overall, i think GSP should be able to get take downs at some point in the fight, but i doubt he can take down Lawler at will like he can with guys like condit. And i think the fight would go similar to hendricks vs lawler 1, where GSP has a bit the upper hand in striking, but gets much more damage done to himself.

Hendricks' takedowns are not as good as they should be given his wrestling pedigree, so that's less impressive than it sounds.

There are some interesting bits on why that is in this video (I think it's the right vid, cant check at the moment):