damn conor does need to move up to lightweight, I can't imagine it being healthy to keep doing these insane weight cuts then get your head clobbered since he doesn't really avoid shots too well. I hope he does move up soon.
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Stim_Abuser United States. Dec 12 2015 01:20. Posts 7499
Odds are shifting. Aldo now a slight favorite or even on most sites.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
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PuertoRican United States. Dec 12 2015 01:27. Posts 13051
On December 12 2015 00:20 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Odds are shifting. Aldo now a slight favorite or even on most sites.
On December 12 2015 01:22 Spitfiree wrote:
fuck my life i suck at betting
i waited for aldo s coef to go higher since it was 2.5 @ b365 but they re down to even now fuck me
On December 10 2015 04:50 Floofy wrote:
Recently i've mostly been following sober's picks a bit blindly
but there's some of his picks i have serious doubt about.
Weidman -165
RockHold has never lost to anyone except to a flash KO by super TRT vitor.
He even dominated Machida harder than Conor dominated Siver... its saying something imo.
The way i see the fight going is.... weidman will press forward, and most likely look like hes winning the striking, not doing any real damage. RockHold will back away and keep his cool, eat a few shots and play it safe. At some point he will probably attempt kicks, which will either inflict damage or get himself taken down. If he is taken down, it won't be an huge deal. He will take some damage, but it won't be like Weidman vs Vitor. Essentially, during this period, Rockhold will be safe, and might catch WeidMan with something big if WeidMan makes a mistake.
Eventually, as fight will go on, Weidman will slow down and get more tired. At this point, RockHold will get really dangerous, and probably decimate Weidman whatever way he wants. I actually think 5 round fights gives advantage to RockHold.
But the odds got much worse than before. i was really happy about RockHold +150, but now i might consider passing the fight since sober actually thinks Weidman -160 is +EV and i know hes a much better sport better than me. Rockhold +115 isn't that crazy anymore.
Nelson +125
I agree with you, if Nelson gets on bottom, hes in trouble. And i think he will get on bottom, because at welterweight pretty much nobody can stop maia from takin you down. Your only hope against maia is to survive early rounds and then beat him once hes tired as hell, a bit like Rory did. I think Nelson won't be able to do it.
Imo, Maia is like a gate keeper to the top 5, while Gunnar probably isn't even top 10 yet. I think the odds are the way they are because they think Nelson's BJJ will somehow negate Maia's grappling, and Nelson has the edge standing.
One thing i find very interesting is, as a general, the guys who pick RockHold actually respect the guys who pick Weidman, and vice versa. I think most people agree both are really good, and both have a real shot at winning this.
On the other hand, Conor vs ALdo's odds are much closer, but it seems like Conor fans are like "LOL EZ MONEY CONORS NEVER LOSING THIS", while aldo fans are the exact opposite. On that fight, most people are either white or black, while ppl are much more grey for the co-main event.
2 things re: weidman vs rockhold. Weidman has NEVER lost. Rockhold has Also, I don't look at the Machida fight and say "rockhold dominated this", i look at it as "rockhold made a bunch of mistakes early, looked very hittable, landed a huge shot that fucked machida up and then he finished him on the ground". Rockhold is a pretty phenomenal grappler, has huge power in a variety of shots, but he is an antiquated striker. he doesnt throw combinations, he looks for one shot at a time, and i dont think his defense is good. meanwhile weidman is just a standard boxer with basic strikes, but he is effective, and has good head movement and defense. I just think he is better than Rockhold at almost everything, and even though Rockhold is super dangerous at everything, I think Weidman is good enough to outclass him in every area, avoid the traps and danger and win.
This fight is super similar to Mendes vs Edgar. I think Edgar is just the better fighter and is facing the better athlete who is a bit more dangerous, and my head just tells me that the better fighter is gonna win. The one difference between these fights is that Mendes has more 1 punch KO power than Rockhold and Edgar is more hittable with defensive lapses than Weidman. So my gut tells me that at some point during the fight Mendes might just waste him. But I get less of a feeling of that in this fight. Completely understand why people bet on Rockhold as a dog, the guy is fucking great at everything, I just think he has some holes, Weidman doesnt, and the stuff Rockhold is absolutely best at (finishing on the ground with a sub) he won't be able to take advantage of due to a wrestling disadvantage.
HOPE YOUR RIGHT, myself thinks Rockhold will win
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PuertoRican United States. Dec 12 2015 10:07. Posts 13051
Rekrul is a newb
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jvilla777 Australia. Dec 12 2015 14:38. Posts 1348
Aldo is now the favourite on bet365.
He looks really good during weigh in also.
longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality!
I dont understand why people care so much about weigh in. I mean, trying to figure out what will happen based on weigh in looks silly to me. I like seeing what happens there thou
On December 11 2015 11:09 MiPwnYa wrote:
has sonnen ever correctly made a prediction? lol
just trollin with whatever random thoughts come to his retarded mind in order to get a bit of attention
kinda feel the same way with rogan. he calls the fights and gives his insights, which are good. but he doesn't have the experience fighting in the ufc making what he says kinda... *can't find a word*... 'fake' maybe...?
Also, I don't look at the Machida fight and say "rockhold dominated this", i look at it as "rockhold made a bunch of mistakes early, looked very hittable, landed a huge shot that fucked machida up and then he finished him on the ground". Rockhold is a pretty phenomenal grappler, has huge power in a variety of shots, but he is an antiquated striker. he doesnt throw combinations, he looks for one shot at a time, and i dont think his defense is good. meanwhile weidman is just a standard boxer with basic strikes, but he is effective, and has good head movement and defense. I just think he is better than Rockhold at almost everything, and even though Rockhold is super dangerous at everything, I think Weidman is good enough to outclass him in every area, avoid the traps and danger and win. 
