UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor

Date: Saturday, December 12th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 1:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Jose Aldo (25-1) vs. Conor McGregor (18-2) (Featherweight Championship)
Chris Weidman (13-0) vs. Luke Rockhold (14-2) (Middleweight Championship )
Ronaldo Souza (22-3) vs. Yoel Romero (10-1) (Middleweight)
Demian Maia (21-6) vs. Gunnar Nelson (14-1-1) (Welterweight)
Max Holloway (14-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (24-11) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Urijah Faber (32-8) vs. Frankie Saenz (11-2) (Bantamweight)
Tecia Torres (6-0) vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-1) (Women's Strawweight)
Warlley Alves (9-0) vs. Colby Covington (8-0) (Welterweight)
Leonardo Santos (14-3-1) vs. Kevin Lee (11-1) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Joe Proctor (11-3) vs. Magomed Mustafaev (12-1) (Lightweight)
John Makdessi (13-4) vs. Yancy Medeiros (11-3) (Lightweight)
Court McGee (16-4) vs. Marcio Alexandre Jr. (11-2) (Welterweight)

Other

- This event marks the first time the UFC has ever scheduled three events in consecutive days, with all of them taking place in Las Vegas. Instead of the MGM Grand Garden Arena, the other two events will be held at The Chelsea at The Cosmopolitan.
- The event is expected to be headlined by a UFC Featherweight Championship unification bout between current champion Jose Aldo and interim champion Conor McGregor. The bout was originally expected to take place at UFC 189. However, Aldo pulled out of the bout due to a rib injury and the event was instead headlined by an interim title bout between McGregor and Chad Mendes.
- The co-main event is expected to feature a UFC Middleweight Championship bout between undefeated champion Chris Weidman and former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Luke Rockhold.
- A middleweight bout between Ronaldo Souza and Yoel Romero was originally booked for UFC 184 and later UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold. However, the bout was cancelled both times due to Souza being struck with pneumonia and Romero pulling out due to a ligament and meniscus tear in his knee, respectively. The fight was later rescheduled for this event.
- Michelle Waterson was expected to face Tecia Torres at the event. However, Waterson pulled out of the bout on November 24 citing an injury. She was replaced by promotional newcomer Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Aldo > McGregor
• Rockhold > Weidman
• Jacare vs. Romero (dunno yet, but I expect this to be a stinker/boring fight, unless Romero lands a punch that stuns or finishes Jacare. I expect them to circle and fight on the outside, with both guys attempting a take down in round 1, then both giving up on TD's when they see it's too hard to get them.)
• Maia vs. Nelson (dunno yet. Nelson wins on the feet, and he has the better cardio. Not sure how their BJJ in MMA matches up.)
• Holloway > Stephens
• Faber > Saenz
• Torres vs. Lybarger (dunno yet. Torres can't finish a sandwich, and she won't out-wrestle and hold Lybarger down like she has been doing to low level chicks. Torres used to be super active with her stand-up, but I dunno what happened; her coaches probably noticed she eats a ton of punches in all of her fights and wanted to implement some wrestling before she loses. Lybarger is more dangerous (but Torres knows how to win on the cards), but I'm not sure how in-shape she is, and this is a 17-day short notice fight for her.)
• Alves vs. Covington (dunno)
• Lee > Santos
• Mustafaev > Proctor
• Makdessi > Medeiros
• McGee > Alexandre

So which UFC event is on a Friday?

On December 04 2015 05:33 jvilla777 wrote: So which UFC event is on a Friday?

TUF 21 Finale:

Frankie Edgar vs. Chad Mendes
Edson Barboza vs. Tony Ferguson
Joe Lauzon vs. Evan Dunham
Ryan LaFlare vs. Mike Pierce
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Jason Knight
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Konstantin Erokhin
Joby Sanchez vs. Geane Herrera

The entire list of fighters won't be released until Wednesday, which is 2 days before the actual event. It's standard with TUF Finales.

Thanks for the thread PuertoRican!

I have a bet on Jose Aldo at +155. I expected the line to move up but it is going down. If it moves up again I will lay some more money on him, otherwise I will probably hedge. Such an exiting match up. Can see it go in so many different ways.
Without a doubt this looks like the best card in history.

I might be stuck in an airport during this fight, realllllllly dont' want to get accidentally spoiled.

Thanks for making this thread, as always.

I'm thinkin Conor, Chris and Yoel!! Gogo

Will be at fights. Stoked as shit. Thanks for making the threads mate.

McGregor > Aldo - Size, strength, chin, power, confidence, aggression, functional movement, highly technical but unorthodox style > speed, resume, highly technical but orthodox style. There are a million factors here and I'm sure everyone will have their own take. The narrative that Aldo got old and McGregor is still over-rated will be in full force after Aldo gets his lights put out. Anything could happen but I'm fairly confident the young Lion is gonna take over that kingdom.

Weidman > Rockhold - I don't need to even explain this pick. Weidman is so good everywhere. Rockhold has paths to victory because he is also really good everywhere and may have the cardio edge. I just don't really see where Rockhold is better that should matter. Great fucking fight.

Romero v Jacare - Pickem. Couple athletic as hell juice-heads that are insanely powerful. I'm interested to see if Jacare can get and hold a dominant position on Romero because if he can, that's a wrap, his Jitz is too insane. I doubt it tho, so I see the fight like Rican, except maybe less boring because I a KO or some back and forth madness on the feet would not be shocking either.

Nelson > Maia - Tough to pick. Maia likes to fight in insane bursts because of his cardio issues and because it suits his skill-set so well. So it really comes down, IMO, to the moments when Maia decides to explode with 1 or 2 punches into his vicious chain wrestling, can Nelson shut that aspect of Maia's game down? If so, he wins, and I do think he will. If not, he's still live because he has amazing BJJ as well and could have some sort of comeback victory, but his chances greatly diminish if he ever ends up on bottom. Also, Nelson's patient Karate style is probably a good standup style to have vs a fighter like Maia.

Holloway > Stephens - Via technical pick-a-part murder. 3rd round finish cuz Stephens is tough as hit but Holloway wants that paper.

Faber > Saenz - Snooze

Torres > Lybarger - Very clear, boring, and easy to score decision incoming. Lybarger sucks and Torres is good relative to the top talent at women's BW. Torres speed, movement and kicks will be way too much if she fights even half-smart.

Alves > Covington - Initially I had picked Covington and even had him in some parlays. Then I rewatched the tape and completely shifted my views. Covington can feasibly grind out a really boring decision. But more likely, he gets starched. At the top-20 level at 170, being a 1-dimensional wrestler shouldn't be enough, and I don't think it will be for Covington. Maybe he's improved since hes a touted ATT prospect.

Lee > Santos - Lee a beast.

Mustafaev > Proctor - Mustafaev a beast.

Makdessi v Medeiros - Not sure, Medeiros defense is soooo bad but he has a major reach and aggression advantage here and hes tough as shit.

McGee v Alexandre - Pickem. Vintage McGee wins via IQ, cardio/output.

Bets:

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 04 2015 13:17 northsails wrote: Thanks for the thread PuertoRican!

After analyzing and reviewing Aldo and McGregor fights I have completely lost faith in my Aldo bet and will probably hedge with the recent line movement. I can get a freeroll at current odds for McGregor and will do so.

Aldo needs to use his wrestling and be able to take Conor down frequently and keep him there or he is pretty much screwed. I think if he decides to stand with McGregor he is getting destroyed a lot of the time. The size of Conor is also going to be a problem as he has never faced such a big fighter so far in his career. Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie, where against Hominick he was picked apart in boxing range a lot. Still he has a lot of ways to win this fight so I am not counting him out. At pickem odds however I will chose Mcgregor .

On December 06 2015 00:41 northsails wrote: After analyzing and reviewing Aldo and McGregor fights I have completely lost faith in my Aldo bet and will probably hedge with the recent line movement. I can get a freeroll at current odds for McGregor and will do so. Aldo needs to use his wrestling and be able to take Conor down frequently and keep him there or he is pretty much screwed. I think if he decides to stand with McGregor he is getting destroyed a lot of the time. The size of Conor is also going to be a problem as he has never faced such a big fighter so far in his career. Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie, where against Hominick he was picked apart in boxing range a lot. Still he has a lot of ways to win this fight so I am not counting him out. At pickem odds however I will chose Mcgregor .

Definelty man. I think Conor should be closer to a -200 favorite.

Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie,

My memory of Aldo vs Hominick (which was years ago now), was that Aldo destroyed him for 4 rounds then gassed hard in the 5th? Should I rewatch that? It's been a while.
Vs KZ he broke his foot in round 1 or 2 iirc...? Not really an indication of much I think except that wrestling Aldo can beat KZ.

Not really trying to say I think Aldo is going to win btw, I legitimately feel completely clueless about how the fight will even look.

On December 06 2015 02:40 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + Also his worse performances came against striking based fighters like Hominick and Korean Zombie, My memory of Aldo vs Hominick (which was years ago now), was that Aldo destroyed him for 4 rounds then gassed hard in the 5th? Should I rewatch that? It's been a while. Vs KZ he broke his foot in round 1 or 2 iirc...? Not really an indication of much I think except that wrestling Aldo can beat KZ. Not really trying to say I think Aldo is going to win btw, I legitimately feel completely clueless about how the fight will even look.

Everyone knew Aldo was sick going into that fight. The reason why that fight was memorable is cuz Hominick was on top of Aldo in the 5th round and people overreacted, as if Aldo was close to being finished. The take down Hominick landed in R5 was due to Aldo landed an uppercut and hurting Hominick, then both guys were so close that Hominick grabbed Aldo and took him down, using momentum and poor footing by Aldo. Anyway, Aldo clearly won that fight. (4.5 year-old fight) (The judges scores were 50-43, 48-46, 49-46.)

The fight against Korean Zombie wasn't close, it was Aldo being a counter striker and then KZ's shoulder popped out of the socket. (2.5+ year-old fight)

Aldo vs. Lamas was Lamas not wanting to fully engage and get clipped. Lamas fought from the outside the entire time and it was basically a sparring match that Lamas wasn't going to win because he isn't a volume striker, and he would get clipped if he tried to box against Aldo.

Anyway, in the end, using these 3 fights as a reason why Aldo will lose is kinda bad. Aldo landed more strikes and 5 take downs against Homnick and wasn't going to lose; Aldo wasn't losing his fight against KZ prior to the injury, he had almost double the significant strikes landed, and landed 5 take downs against KZ; and Lamas was fighting not to lose, thus Aldo just had to do his usual thing, which he did by landing more strikes and getting 2 take downs on a wrestler.

But the point is that these were competitive fights vs Mark Hominick and the Korean Zombie. No disrespect to those fighters but now we have an older Aldo and a completely different level fighter. Aldo's fight vs Mendes was insanely impressive (prolly Aldo's best UFC performance) but also worrisome if you are an Aldo fan. He was dropped twice by a guy who hits half as hard as McGregor and it was a very close fight. Edgar is just a perfect stylistic opponent for Aldo, not really impressed by that one relative to how good I already know Aldo is.

These aren't reason's in it of of themselves to bet on McGregor, but if you come out of the fight and say to yourself "Aldo got old and worse, that's the reason he lost" - than you should have seen that as a realistic possibility well before the fight occurred.

For the record, I'm not saying "you" at anyone in specific, more the general public, because I know that if Aldo gets crushed, that is going to be the narrative - "he got old and McGregor got him at the right time". And I think that's really dumb since its such a predictable outcome.

Don't get me wrong, Aldo could come in, frustrate McGregor, implement insane defense, and pick him apart. And if so Aldo is just too good and mad props to him. I don't see it going that way.

McGregor
Rockhold
Romero
Holloway
Nelson

My point in bringing this two fight is that Aldo is not looking as impressive when he is facing a striker. Yes he was ill and had a bad weight cut coming into the Hominick fight, but that doesn't change the fact that at times he had to resort to his wrestling and take him down because Hominick was doing very well in exchanges. He dominated and won both those fights but it was not the Aldo we see when he is fighting a wrestler.

He is looking like an absolute destroyer when fighting wrestlers and the reason for that I believe is that they match up very well for him. He has insane takedown defence and great intercepting knees and punches (his uppercut) and he is huge for the weight class and very athletic. When facing a wrestler he looks unstoppable as if his opponent stays on the outside he is going to destroy him with kicks and if he shoots for takedowns he is going to meet him with knees or uppercuts. On top of that he always has the size advantage and usually is alot bigger that his opponents. Now he is coming in against an opponent who is not going to shoot for takedowns and is alot bigger than him with I believe a superior striking. He is in trouble.

Weidman will have a pretty sick record if he wins here...

[QUOTE]On December 06 2015 11:33 northsails wrote:
My point in bringing this two fight is that Aldo is not looking as impressive when he is facing a striker. Yes he was ill and had a bad weight cut coming into the Hominick fight, but that doesn't change the fact that at times he had to resort to his wrestling and take him down because Hominick was doing very well in exchanges. He dominated and won both those fights but it was not the Aldo we see when he is fighting a wrestler.

He is looking like an absolute destroyer when fighting wrestlers and the reason for that I believe is that they match up very well for him. He has insane takedown defence and great intercepting knees and punches (his uppercut) and he is huge for the weight class and very athletic. When facing a wrestler he looks unstoppable as if his opponent stays on the outside he is going to destroy him with kicks and if he shoots for takedowns he is going to meet him with knees or uppercuts. On top of that he always has the size advantage and usually is alot bigger that his opponents. Now he is coming in against an opponent who is not going to shoot for takedowns and is alot bigger than him with I believe a superior striking. He is in trouble. [/QUOTE

Well put IMO

I think Rockhold is at least 50% to beat Weidman, I think he has a slight edge 60/40 but Weidman's championship status makes it back to 50/50.

I have no fucking clue or idea about Aldo vs McGregor. I mean Aldo is from the favela's, I don't think hes going to cave but he might just lose on straight up skills alone.

I think Romero > Jacare, I think its just his time. I think he has more to gain/lose and will want it more.

Maia > Gunnar Nelson ~ I'm not sure about this one, but Maia is a beast now. Gunnar Nelson is good, but I doubt he has an edge grappling...I think Maia has the right type of energy to beat him, the type that puts on pressure and expounds a consistent output, but doesn't leave enough openings for Gunnar Nelsons calmness and strategic nature to be able to find much.