UFC 194: Aldo vs. McGregor - Page 2

Haven't stayed up till 7am just to watch fights in a long time, but this is going to be insane.

Firas Zahabi 40 min video on Aldo v McGregor

Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is.

On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is.

Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'.

I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor.

On December 08 2015 05:08 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is. Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'. I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor.

I think that video has some interviews that are from ufc 189 or something. look at what Mir said.

Now look at this one which seems more recent:


This one is much more 50/50. Also keep in mind Brazilians will almost all say Aldo....

I actaully have no idea who's going to win main & co main, but I am leaning towards Rockhold over Weidman..........which pains me to say

Can't wait for this weekend starting thursday!!!

Aldo
Weidman
Jacare
Maia
Halloway

I think Aldo will mix it up and dominate on the ground, possibly subbing Conor. Conors TDD and ground game looked really mediocre against Mendes.

Weidman will pressure Rockhold, taking away his only real good offense standing which are his kicks, be in his face, box him up. push him against the cage, take him down and beat him up there too. Rockhold has a good chance if Weidman gasses, if not though I think he gets beat handily.

Jacare should be the better striker. Romero hits like a tank but he's pretty wild and sloppy and has an average chin. I think Jacare cracks him and tko's or subs him in 2.

Maia will be able to get Gunnar down and win the first two rounds and takes it 29-28

Holloway will light Stephens up standing.

On December 08 2015 05:08 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is. Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'. I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor.

Plus 1/3 of them = Brazilian so some bias

I think it was also filmed, at least some of them, before McGregor vs Mendes, since Mir mentions he would have liked to see McG Mendes or McG Edgar first.

On December 08 2015 05:23 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On December 08 2015 05:08 soberstone wrote:   On December 08 2015 02:45 TianYuan wrote: Wow not a single pro picked McGregor? EDIT: OK 1. And I have no idea who he is. Its very clear that there is a certain 'political correctness' for both the media and the pros. They don't want to be the guy to pick against the legend, and worse, they don't want to be the guy to pick for the 'douchebag'. I bet my bank account at least a few of those dudes are leaning McGregor. I think that video has some interviews that are from ufc 189 or something. look at what Mir said. Now look at this one which seems more recent: This one is much more 50/50. Also keep in mind Brazilians will almost all say Aldo....

Feels still overwhelmingly in favour of Aldo or wishy washy answers? I mean even someone like Gus who did pick McGregor basically said he was picking him because he's a fellow European.

There are some very interesting aspects to this fight that I haven't seen discussed much in other places.


-I think it was pretty obvious Conor had a knee injury going into the Mendes fight. His lateral movement was non existent and didn't look like himself. That fight was 5 months ago and he never had surgery, is his knee really healed for this fight?

-I read an interesting breakdown of the fight by Patrick Wyman over at bleacherreport. One of the things he noted was that Conor isn't as wedded to outside leg dominance as most southpaw fighters. Basically, when a southpaw fighter faces an orthodox fighter, winning the battle of outside leg dominance often leads to an advantageous position. Robbie Lawler is an absolute master at this and he uses it to both stop takedowns and to land big strikes with a positional edge. Now Conor has his own tricks by not using lead leg dominance, but I think this also makes him more vulnerable to Aldo's chopping leg kicks.

-Conor's pace and output will give Aldo fits. Not just because Aldo is comfortable fighting at a slower pace, and not just because Aldo has shown more cardio issues, but if CM pushes forward, throws more strikes, he can win rounds. I think this fight probably goes to a decision more often than most others do, winning those close rounds with more volume is really important.

-I think a common sentiment is that nobody really knows how good CM is yet. He was injured vs Mendes and his striking has never been challenged. I would argue we don't really have any idea how good Aldo is; he seems to coast in every fight and is obsessed with conserving energy and finding the path of least resistance to victory.


All in all, I think Aldo needs to be favored. He is literally better at everything except for punching faces (and taking face punches), has multiple paths to victory, is an absolute defensive wizard while CM has holes in his defense, and I'm not convinced CM fully recovered from the knee injury without surgery. Still, not confident in that opinion and am more excited for this fight than I have ever been for another.


Weidman > Rockhold. LR gets hit a lot, CW has solid fundamentals and should capitalize repeatedly on LR mistakes.

Romero > Jacare. Think he probably melts him at some point, and no shot Jacare gets this to the ground other than a knockdown. People love to reference Yoel being taken down by Derek Brunson, but the guy literally didn't train his wrestling (since his actual wrestling days) for any fight until Tavares and has not been taken down since.

Maia > Gunnar. GN is just too passive, think he loses 2 rounds. Better fighter though and should win, just don't believe he has the heart to be a fighter.

I know this isn't the right thread but since all you MMA enthusiasts will be checking it http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/12/8/...ps-after-loss-i-m-staying-with-edmond

I would definitely recommend a bet on Holm at +135.

@daut

Good points mate.

Agree 100 % about the injury. No-one seems to acknowledge that the McGregor that squashed the 2-week Mendes was the worst version of McGregor we have seen in the UFC health-wise, and its not close. He didn't look like himself at all, he was pale and could only come forward, backward effectively. Luckily for him, Mendes broke mentally early on in that fight. I think McGregor will fight very similarly to how he did vs Holloway in gameplan (using forward pressure, cagecutting and his boxing to setup his exotic kicks, not vice-versa) and I don't think Aldo can take half the shot Holloway can these days (that is completely subjective of-course, I can't prove that, but we'll see what happens Saturday).

Patrick Wyman gives really good technical breakdowns but I've noticed with his picks he tends to over-think individual technical aspects and undervalue overall fight dynamic, intangibles, and fighter trajectory. If I want technical analysis, Slack is God and much more on the money with picking out the relevant technical dynamics.

I say that about Wyman's point because I don't believe this fight is going to have to do with the southpaw / lead-leg position battle dynamic nearly as much as timing, power, durability, and mental readiness. The nuanced technical aspects come into play over 5-rounds in a layered battle - like in Rory vs Robbie - but I doubt it plays a tangible role in this fight but it is a very interesting point he brings up

@nazgul

I wouldn't tie up money in a Holm/Rousey bet right now simply because a date hasn't been announced and fights get pushed back and cancelled way too much. Totally with you in sentiment though, the fact that Rousey is a favorite speaks to the stubbornness of the public and I am certainly more convinced after reading that that she's learned nothing about how truly out-classed she was that night and how she is not special beyond what she has done for the sport and how great of an athlete and grappler she is. The hype got to her so hard that even the events that transpired didn't blast her back into reality via humility. She learned nothing and is not shedding her yes-men.

On December 07 2015 11:57 Nazgul wrote: Haven't stayed up till 7am just to watch fights in a long time, but this is going to be insane.

+1

is there a way to watch premium quality in the eu on a stream

One thing that might be interesting is the IV ban coming into effect. Usually all 4 of the title fighters are huge for their weight class. Especially Conor and Rockhold. Apparently Weidman was like 193 pounds 2 weeks ago and is currently 189 as of 2 days ago. Wonder if this will help him a lot, or being the smaller man will hurt him here. The one weakness in his game people have pointed out though has been his cardio, and this should help it.

On December 08 2015 15:40 Nazgul wrote: I know this isn't the right thread but since all you MMA enthusiasts will be checking it http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/12/8/...ps-after-loss-i-m-staying-with-edmond I would definitely recommend a bet on Holm at +135.

"I guess it's all going to be determined by what happens in the rematch," Rousey told ESPN Magazine. "Everything is going to be determined by that. Either I'll win and keep going or I won't and I'll be done with everything."

Now she knows what it feels like to be Miesha Tate.

Final picks Aldo > McGregor and Weidman > Rockhold. I saw what made Weidman so special in that interview. And saw something about the Aldo/McGregor fight.

The more I think about their skillsets and the more technical analysis I read, the more I'm confident in Weidman. Rockhold has to rely on a mistake. What's he gonna do, back Weidman off with his pillow-fists? He's got a nice check hook I guess. Kick moving backwards? That seems like a recipe for disaster.

Weidman coming in light and healthy while the odds move the opposite direction is just indicative of dog-chasing and/or people being enamored with Rockhold's highlights or chalking up everything Weidman has done to luck (which is really stupid, I say that unapologetic-ally)

I really don't understand what Rockhold's path to victory is besides somehow winding up in top position for a prolonged period of time. That's hard when the other guy is a much better wrestler and probably won't even be shooting sloppy takedowns.

I actually think Weidman is going to get himself a stoppage in rounds 3-4.

My opinion on strategy:

Rockhold's best strategy is probably to lure Weidman in with an active jab while moving laterally and backwards, clinch with over-unders once they get near the fence, and work a trip to initiate a scramble.

Weidman's best strategy is to be patient, legkick, and let his hands go on Rockhold when they are in tight. He should only clinch/wrestle once they are sweaty and Rockhold is damaged.