UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs. Johnson

Date: Saturday, January 24th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 15:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 16:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (FOX): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (FOX)

Alexander Gustafsson (16-2) vs. Anthony Johnson (18-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Dan Henderson (30-12) vs. Gegard Mousasi (35-5-2) (Middleweight)
Phil Davis (13-2) vs. Ryan Bader (18-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Akira Corassani (12-5) vs. Sam Sicilia (13-5) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Nico Musoke (13-3) vs. Albert Tumenov (13-2) (Welterweight)
Kenny Robertson (14-3) vs. Sultan Aliev (13-1) (Welterweight)
Andy Ogle (9-5) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (10-2) (Featherweight)
Nikita Krylov (17-4) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (12-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Mairbek Taisumov (22-5) vs. Anthony Christodoulou (12-4) (Lightweight)
Mirsad Bektic (8-0) vs. Paul Redmond (10-4) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Viktor Pesta (9-1) vs. Konstantin Erokhin (9-1) (Heavyweight)
Neil Seery (14-10) vs. Chris Beal (10-0) (Flyweight)

Other

- In order for the event to be broadcast live during Prime time hours on the east coast of North America, the main card is expected to begin at 2:00am local time in Stockholm (CET), with a full preliminary card slated to begin at approximately 11:00pm local time.
- Yan Cabral was expected to face Mairbek Taisumov at the event. However on December 30, Cabral was pulled from the fight for undisclosed reasons and replaced by promotional newcomer Anthony Christodoulou.
- Alan Omer was expected to face Mirsad Bektic at the event. However on January 12, Omer was pulled from the fight with an undiclosed injury and replaced by promotional newcomer Paul Redmond.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Gustafsson > Johnson (I'll wait to see what the KO/TKO prop looks like for Gustafsson. He has the speed, movement, gas tank, and hometown advantage. I give Johnson u1.5 rounds to get a KO/TKO, or else he's done.)
• Mousasi > Henderson (This could be Hendo's last fight in the UFC, unless he lands something big.)
• Bader > Davis (I'll wait to see what Bader by decision looks like.)
• Corassani vs. Sicilia (dunno, don't care. I can never guess right on Sicilia, whether he wins or loses, and Corassani isn't good, so it's a tough one.)
• Tumenov > Musoke (Musoke is more well-rounded, but I think Tumenov will keep it on the feet and land more with his heavier hands.)
• Robertson > Aliev (Aliev is just a wrestler.)
• Ogle vs. Amirkhani (dunno, don't care.)
• Nedkov > Krylov (u1.5 will probably be the play. I can see a headkick on Nedkov, or a TKO via GnP from Nedkov.)
• Taisumov > Christodoulou
• Bektic > Redmond
• Pesta vs. Erokhin (dunno)
• Beal > Seery (Seery has a sick good chin on him and heavy hands, but his defense sucks. o2.5 rounds seems good, but I can see Beal getting a TKO with his speed, athleticism, and power.)

didn't know we have a bulgarian in the UFC, only thought we got the Bellator guy - nice

btw its kind of weird since fighting @ 2am seems kind of dumb, fighters, i presume, have a strict regime during their preparations for fights, their bodies shouldn't adjust well to a fight that late

Same sentiments with the picks.... Definitely like Mousasi I wish Hendo's name value made the line better but DC destroyed him so bad that he was exposed as pretty useless these days....

Also love the line on Bader, think there is definitely value there, gun to my head I'd pick Davis but Bader being a straight 2:1 dog seems like madness to me. Phil's MMA wrestling is better but if that's neutralized and it's just a standup fight its a toss-up and Davis is a total front-runner.

Mousasi is at 1.307 now and i think it is a lock.
I thought it would be like 1.1 . And it might well go to such numbers in a few days.

I am betting on Hendo because of the odds (+230)

I may bet on Bader an Gustafsson

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Current bets I like on Bookmaker:

Ryan Bader +210 (1 unit bet)
Kenny Robertson -125 (1 unit bet, but wait a bit, people are betting Aliev)
Krylov/Nedkov u1.5 -135 (half a unit bet)

Max L (DraftKings)

Jan 19, 6:42 PM

Hello,

Please check back later in the week as we normally post MMA contests mid-week.

Thank you,

Max L

Customer Experience Associate
DraftKings Inc.

Floofy

Jan 19, 6:41 PM

Hello

I know there is no contest at the time, my question is, will there be contests for UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs. Johnson

Thanks you

________________________________

Max L (DraftKings)

Jan 19, 6:36 PM

Hello -

Currently, we do not have any MMA contests posted, check back later in the week for all our MMA contests.

Best,

Max L

Customer Experience Associate
DraftKings Inc.

Floofy

Jan 19, 6:34 PM

I was wondering if there will be contests for UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs. Johnson

I really like this site so if there is one i won't bet anything on other sites i will keep it all for this one.

I think he has no idea what the answer is but he refuse to just say "We don't know at the time"

Hendo is up to +350 on bookmaker right now. I think that's getting a bit excessive. Definitely watching that line to see if it stays or gets even better and how they look weigh-in day.

If I was gonna bet Hendo, it'd be via decision. The opener of +650 looked good, but it dropped to +525. I can see Hendo coming forward a lot and winning off of activity, but Mousasi's defense is pretty good and he will probably catch Hendo with some counters. Since Hendo doesn't threaten anyone with his wrestling, he makes it hard on himself. Granted, Mousasi does have above average TDD.

If I were to bet the fight, I'd put Mousasi in a big 2-man parlay and hedge with Hendo via decision at +525 or better.

Oh I just realized Mirsad Bektic is on this card. Sick. Kid is a stud.

Gegard is just going to win a 30-27 decision with his jab.
He is too smart and experienced and will not engage with Henderson,and also has a pretty solid chin so he may well survive even if he gets caught.
Henderson throws 20 punches per round and he can not win a decision.If Moussasi fights to win a decision it is going to be an awful fight to watch.

Just put in a bet on Gustafsson at -252 for $378. It was at -224 for a bit and I would have bet more then. I just kind of feel Gustafsson/Jones/Cormier are at a way higher level than the rest, even if Johson has looked pretty good. The 205 division has sucked ever since Pride died and Jones has just been feasting off of old reputations. Johnson beating lil' Nog is meaningless to me as any of those three would just crush him too.

After Rumble loses, I'd like to see him fight Glover Teixeira.

Gustafsson is -196 at betsson/betsafe if anyone interested. Just put in a bet for 400 eu. I think it is too good to pass. Rumble looked scary versus Davis and Nog, but I can't shook up the memory when he got owned by Koscheck.
I know it is a completely different fighter now, but Gus is on another level and has a great chin on him, so chances for Rumble are slim to none.

much better card than boston, hopefully we see some finishes in main card

On January 20 2015 17:14 northsails wrote: Gustafsson is -196 at betsson/betsafe if anyone interested. Just put in a bet for 400 eu. I think it is too good to pass. Rumble looked scary versus Davis and Nog, but I can't shook up the memory when he got owned by Koscheck. I know it is a completely different fighter now, but Gus is on another level and has a great chin on him, so chances for Rumble are slim to none.

You can't put much stock into Rumble's previous losses in the UFC, because they were at a different weight class, and he often had cardio troubles. He fights at 205 now, where his cardio is much better and he's stronger. It's kinda crazy that hist first run in the UFC was at 170 pounds.

Anyway, even with improved cardio and not having to cut so much weight, I still think Gustafsson will beat Rumble.

On January 20 2015 05:07 Nazgul wrote: Just put in a bet on Gustafsson at -252 for $378. It was at -224 for a bit and I would have bet more then. I just kind of feel Gustafsson/Jones/Cormier are at a way higher level than the rest, even if Johson has looked pretty good. The 205 division has sucked ever since Pride died and Jones has just been feasting off of old reputations. Johnson beating lil' Nog is meaningless to me as any of those three would just crush him too.

He also embarrassed Phil Davis.

If he's not with those 3, he's definitely #4 and #5 is way, way far away.

I do think Gus will give him trouble with his movement and length. Johnson is a little too plodding with his footwork and Gus & Jones will exploit the shit out of that. That said, he explodes and hits as hard as anyone at that weight, and Gus is super hittable.

I do expect Gus to win a decision or late tko the majority of the time though. Mostly because I don't think Johnsons cardio can be that good with the way he is built. I think in a 3 rounder he could give Gus a close match though with pressure and bombs.

I think people forget that right before the Jones fight, broken Shogun gave Gus a hell of a fight. Won the first round in my book, and the 2nd round was relatively close, albeit for sure a Gus round.

Wonder if Johnson can continue to not get popped for roids. I'm basically 99% sure he's on roids. I mean he was always a big WW, but he turned into a fucking tank after going to blackzillians. I mean he's one of the biggest LHW's around. He walks at like 230ish ripped as fuck. Built like a tank. He put on like 30 pounds of solid muscle in less than a year, no way that was natty.

March 2011, Rumble fought Dan Hardy at 170 lbs and mostly avoided stand up so he could wrestle decision his way to a win. Literally only two years later, he beat Andre Arlovski, a career heavyweight, in a mostly uneventful stand-up fight. Now almost two years after that, he's being talked as possibly the guy to challenge the best fighter in the world, Jones. Weird stuff

No idea who'll win but rooting for Rumble. Of the opinion that Jones controls Gus in a kind of boring rematch. And Rumble, esp if he pulls this off, will make for a really interesting first 2-3 rounds vs Jones

Also like Bader. Hunch he could look better than expected on the feet where he's improved a bit. Davis is really so poor technically on the feet that he masks with athleticism

On January 20 2015 02:05 gryzzlybearr wrote: Gegard is just going to win a 30-27 decision with his jab. He is too smart and experienced and will not engage with Henderson,and also has a pretty solid chin so he may well survive even if he gets caught. Henderson throws 20 punches per round and he can not win a decision.If Moussasi fights to win a decision it is going to be an awful fight to watch.

Mousasi supposedly could have fought alike vs Jacare and avoid his wild haymakers but he fought like an idiot, im not confident in Mousasis ring IQ anymore

On January 20 2015 19:11 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On January 20 2015 05:07 Nazgul wrote: Just put in a bet on Gustafsson at -252 for $378. It was at -224 for a bit and I would have bet more then. I just kind of feel Gustafsson/Jones/Cormier are at a way higher level than the rest, even if Johson has looked pretty good. The 205 division has sucked ever since Pride died and Jones has just been feasting off of old reputations. Johnson beating lil' Nog is meaningless to me as any of those three would just crush him too. He also embarrassed Phil Davis. If he's not with those 3, he's definitely #4 and #5 is way, way far away. I do think Gus will give him trouble with his movement and length. Johnson is a little too plodding with his footwork and Gus & Jones will exploit the shit out of that. That said, he explodes and hits as hard as anyone at that weight, and Gus is super hittable. I do expect Gus to win a decision or late tko the majority of the time though. Mostly because I don't think Johnsons cardio can be that good with the way he is built. I think in a 3 rounder he could give Gus a close match though with pressure and bombs. I think people forget that right before the Jones fight, broken Shogun gave Gus a hell of a fight. Won the first round in my book, and the 2nd round was relatively close, albeit for sure a Gus round. Wonder if Johnson can continue to not get popped for roids. I'm basically 99% sure he's on roids. I mean he was always a big WW, but he turned into a fucking tank after going to blackzillians. I mean he's one of the biggest LHW's around. He walks at like 230ish ripped as fuck. Built like a tank. He put on like 30 pounds of solid muscle in less than a year, no way that was natty.

I definitely agree Johnson seems to be a clear #4 leaving a pretty decent gap below him to the next best fighter. I just feel LHW isn't very good at the moment and that Davis/Rashad are basically the best of the rest. I see a huge divider with Gustafsson/Cormier/Jones being the 'new' (Cormier being 35) breed, and then Rashad/Davis leading the rest of the pack, with Johnson floating somewhere in between but still being significantly worse than the other three. We'll see when they fight I could be wrong it is a lot of theory crafting.

Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ?

On January 21 2015 02:18 Spitfiree wrote: Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ?

His cardio and what seems to be lack of understanding of the point-game makes him a tough bet. I would sooner consider Hendo he has a good record with lucky decisions.

On January 21 2015 03:21 Nazgul wrote: Show nested quote + On January 21 2015 02:18 Spitfiree wrote: Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ? His cardio and what seems to be lack of understanding of the point-game makes him a tough bet. I would sooner consider Hendo he has a good record with lucky decisions.

You're correct about Mousasi.

Regarding Hendo, this fight is at 185 pounds, and Hendo hasn't fought at 185 pounds since his loss to Jake Shields in Strikeforce in April 2010; Hendo didn't have the best cardio in that fight. Also, Hendo SHOULD be on a 5-fight losing streak; Shogun was kicking his ass until Hendo landed that one punch that broke Shogun's nose and put him on his butt.

Anyway, I won't be betting this fight, so I don't care who wins. Hendo looks worse in every fight, and I've said many times that I must've missed Mousasi's best years of fighting because he has never impressed me in any of the fights he's had since the first time I saw him in April 2010.

Always bet on black. I like Johnson because his career is too weird

On January 21 2015 03:28 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On January 21 2015 03:21 Nazgul wrote:   On January 21 2015 02:18 Spitfiree wrote: Is Mousasi even worth betting at -330 ? His cardio and what seems to be lack of understanding of the point-game makes him a tough bet. I would sooner consider Hendo he has a good record with lucky decisions. You're correct about Mousasi. Regarding Hendo, this fight is at 185 pounds, and Hendo hasn't fought at 185 pounds since his loss to Jake Shields in Strikeforce in April 2010; Hendo didn't have the best cardio in that fight. Also, Hendo SHOULD be on a 5-fight losing streak; Shogun was kicking his ass until Hendo landed that one punch that broke Shogun's nose and put him on his butt. Anyway, I won't be betting this fight, so I don't care who wins. Hendo looks worse in every fight, and I've said many times that I must've missed Mousasi's best years of fighting because he has never impressed me in any of the fights he's had since the first time I saw him in April 2010.

When I was most impressed about Mousasi and his potential/future is around 2008 when he was on a winning streak in MMA that included Lombard, Kang, Manhoef, Jacare. Several of those were beautiful submissions. At this point he went to K-1 and in a standup match and fought Musashi to KO him in the first round (which is unreal). He followed this up with a Kimura win over Hunt shortly after. He was 22 years old at this point and excelled at important facets such as standup, groundgame, fight iq, and was still really young with lots of time for growth. It seems like he already adapted a mindset, one I think was much more common back then than it is now, that misses several things to be a champion in the modern era. The fight iq game developed, the sport advanced. You now have to be incredibly professional both in training as well as things like cutting weight. Besides that you also had to adapt and focus on your wrestling. The mindset back then was that if you were sick on the ground then you could just submit people if they took you down. The mindset now is that even if you are sick on the ground your opponent is likely good enough to avoid getting subbed. You can't let yourself get taken down. Anyway Mousasi is still only 29 and has plenty of time to turn things around and possibly become a champion. But I'm not betting on that he does.

On January 20 2015 18:07 PuertoRican wrote: You can't put much stock into Rumble's previous losses in the UFC, because they were at a different weight class, and he often had cardio troubles. He fights at 205 now, where his cardio is much better and he's stronger. It's kinda crazy that hist first run in the UFC was at 170 pounds. Anyway, even with improved cardio and not having to cut so much weight, I still think Gustafsson will beat Rumble.

Yes, I agree he's a completely new fighter now. However I am not sold on him just yet, Phil Davis stand up is very bad, so beating him up when able to negate his wrestling is not so impresive . Lil Nog is like a walking zombie. It was a sad fight to watch.
Gus chin is very solid. He has been hit with some hard shots and head kicks and the only time I have seen him shooked up was against Jones after the spining elbow. Even then he was able to survive so It is really hard for me to imagine for Rumble to KO him, which I think is the only way he is going to win this fight.
I think Gus by KO/TKO is also a very good bet at + 250.

I have no idea how Dan Henderson is going to beat Mousasi.

I thought there was value in Gustaffson / Mousasi / Bader before but the lines on Gustaffson / Mousasi have shrunk.

Gustaffson is primarily a boxer, and wide power punchers are exactly what boxers train to pick apart.

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Rewatched Jones vs Gus this AM and wow.... Jones was so slow that fight compared to all his other bouts, I know its old news but it really re-enforced to me that he really didn't train for that fight or was going through those personal issues we have been hearing about.... I really think Gus's stock might be a little bit too high right now. I'm like AJ more and more at the current odds as time goes by.

On January 22 2015 14:21 soberstone wrote: Rewatched Jones vs Gus this AM and wow.... Jones was so slow that fight compared to all his other bouts, I know its old news but it really re-enforced to me that he really didn't train for that fight or was going through those personal issues we have been hearing about.... I really think Gus's stock might be a little bit too high right now. I'm like AJ more and more at the current odds as time goes by.

If Rumble won, do you think he'd get a finish, or win by decision? I see little chance that Rumble wins by decision.

On January 20 2015 19:11 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On January 20 2015 05:07 Nazgul wrote: Just put in a bet on Gustafsson at -252 for $378. It was at -224 for a bit and I would have bet more then. I just kind of feel Gustafsson/Jones/Cormier are at a way higher level than the rest, even if Johson has looked pretty good. The 205 division has sucked ever since Pride died and Jones has just been feasting off of old reputations. Johnson beating lil' Nog is meaningless to me as any of those three would just crush him too. He also embarrassed Phil Davis. If he's not with those 3, he's definitely #4 and #5 is way, way far away. I do think Gus will give him trouble with his movement and length. Johnson is a little too plodding with his footwork and Gus & Jones will exploit the shit out of that. That said, he explodes and hits as hard as anyone at that weight, and Gus is super hittable. I do expect Gus to win a decision or late tko the majority of the time though. Mostly because I don't think Johnsons cardio can be that good with the way he is built. I think in a 3 rounder he could give Gus a close match though with pressure and bombs. I think people forget that right before the Jones fight, broken Shogun gave Gus a hell of a fight. Won the first round in my book, and the 2nd round was relatively close, albeit for sure a Gus round. Wonder if Johnson can continue to not get popped for roids. I'm basically 99% sure he's on roids. I mean he was always a big WW, but he turned into a fucking tank after going to blackzillians. I mean he's one of the biggest LHW's around. He walks at like 230ish ripped as fuck. Built like a tank. He put on like 30 pounds of solid muscle in less than a year, no way that was natty.

shutup sir. =]

On January 22 2015 16:23 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On January 22 2015 14:21 soberstone wrote: Rewatched Jones vs Gus this AM and wow.... Jones was so slow that fight compared to all his other bouts, I know its old news but it really re-enforced to me that he really didn't train for that fight or was going through those personal issues we have been hearing about.... I really think Gus's stock might be a little bit too high right now. I'm like AJ more and more at the current odds as time goes by. If Rumble won, do you think he'd get a finish, or win by decision? I see little chance that Rumble wins by decision.

It would be by tremendous fight altering violence early more likely ending up in a stoppage, but a 2-3 round beating followed by 2-3 rounds of more survival is possible I suppose. I guess the fact that its a 5 rounder really does bode poorly for him.... it's just I really do think Alex will need to be very careful early and AJ really will look better early. Could be a great fight to live bet Gus on if AJ wins the first round very convincingly but you see that Alex has weathered the storm well.

I guess Johnson by TKO at +375 would be the way to go if I were to bet him, but I'll probably just stay away.

I think Bader by decision at +615 is pretty phenomenal.

Well considering what Gus did to Jones early I don't think he s the one that has to be worried for the early match :/
True though being careful and losing the rounds are two different things so


btw i just saw a video of Bellator signing Kimbo Slice whaaat

DraftOps (DO) is basically the same thing as DraftKings (click this link and scroll down to the big picture for my original post about it), but it isn't as good, imo. The thing I hate about DO is that when you go to "My Missions" to view your list of teams, it doesn't say which event is which. All of the events currently have the same name, so I can't tell if one team is for the $10k event, or if it's for the $10 event. Also, they don't have the function available to deposit money yet, so the games they have on their website are all free rolls.

Anyway, I assume DO will continue to do free rolls until they can get more exposure. DraftKings is already a household name, so they didn't have to advertise much at all for their MMA debut. Also, as you can tell by the banner, DO is an official partner of Bellator MMA, but they will also have UFC events to choose from, so that's nice.

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why is there 0 hype videos ;(

On January 23 2015 02:58 MysticJoey wrote: why is there 0 hype videos ;(

https://www.youtube.com/user/UFC/videos

Alexander Gustafsson (205) vs. Anthony Johnson (204)
Dan Henderson (185) vs. Gegard Mousasi (185)
Phil Davis (206) vs. Ryan Bader (205)
Akira Corassani (145) vs. Sam Sicilia (145)
Nico Musoke (171) vs. Albert Tumenov (170)
Kenny Robertson (170) vs. Sultan Aliev (170)
Andy Ogle (146) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (145)
Nikita Krylov (205) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (205)
Mairbek Taisumov (156) vs. Anthony Christodoulou (156)
Mirsad Bektic (145) vs. Paul Redmond (149)*
Viktor Pesta (239) vs. Konstantin Erokhin (229)
Neil Seery (125) vs. Chris Beal (126)

* Redmond fined 20% of his purse, which goes to his opponent.

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PuertoRican, or someone that knows Seery vs Beal well. Do you think there is value on Beal?

Neil Seery(14-10) looks like a punching bag, the line is -200, Beal looks like a talented up and comer. The line is -200

Does Beal not win more than 2/3 here for some reason?

On January 23 2015 15:38 Minsk wrote: PuertoRican, or someone that knows Seery vs Beal well. Do you think there is value on Beal? Neil Seery(14-10) looks like a punching bag, the line is -200, Beal looks like a talented up and comer. The line is -200 Does Beal not win more than 2/3 here for some reason?

This is Beal's first cut down to 125, and he's fighting outside of USA for the first time. He's stronger, faster on the feet, faster with his hands, and a better MMA fighter imo. Seery is known for being extremely tough and hard to finish. Seery has decent power in his hands, so Beal can't get reckless and trade shots. As long as Beal keeps moving while he strikes, he should easily win via decision or via TKO. Seery via TKO is +600.

Interesting, during the weigh ins Cormier quoted Rashad as saying Rumble brought in a 6'8'' kickboxer from Holland, and all they did was work on footwork all camp on cutting off Gus and getting on the inside. And to not expect the flat footed Anthony Johnson you're used to seeing. The fact that they acknowledges AJ's flat footed approach would be a problem and worked an entire camp on correcting it is pretty impressive.

He also came in at 204 with socks and a hat on, making me think he dropped a bit of muscle and focused on cardio and speed.

All very interesting. I know it's just words, but it makes me feel a lot better about AJ's chances honestly.

My picks: if you like lighting money on fire

Johnson
Moussasi
Phil Davis
last fight is bullshit i dunno these bums

I've been lucky the past two events getting parlays correct(which were easier to pick). I might luck out again lol

On January 23 2015 16:35 Stim_Abuser wrote: Interesting, during the weigh ins Cormier quoted Rashad as saying Rumble brought in a 6'8'' kickboxer from Holland, and all they did was work on footwork all camp on cutting off Gus and getting on the inside. And to not expect the flat footed Anthony Johnson you're used to seeing. The fact that they acknowledges AJ's flat footed approach would be a problem and worked an entire camp on correcting it is pretty impressive. He also came in at 204 with socks and a hat on, making me think he dropped a bit of muscle and focused on cardio and speed. All very interesting. I know it's just words, but it makes me feel a lot better about AJ's chances honestly.

I was ready to be on Gus and then I read this... damn it

Damn Luke Barnett has commentator potential.... good stuff.

I've flipped back and now think Rumble is kinda drawing dead again. Gus really is sort of the Dominick Cruz of LHW.

I like AJ a lot vs Gus and even JBJ if he gets more time to improve. The guy kinda fucked people's impression of his potential by fighting smaller guys but fucking up his body so much by extreme weight cuts. I really believe he will surprise everyone tomorrow.
He also has nothing to lose, which makes me believe makes him a very dangerous opponent vs anyone in the LHW

Gustaffson vs AJ I think its somewhere between everyone. I'm just not betting it.

Dan Henderson also seems to refuse to age, I thought he had no chance, but it might be opposite and he has the experience to not make mistakes against Mousasi, and how will Mousasi threaten him then? I've kind of flipped on this one, I thought he was done and here for the check, but don't after seeing weigh ins. Think I'm going to take Henderson at 5.35.

Bader is my favorite line.

Also want to take Beal at -200.

I can help translate Alex's final words in the weigh in, I speak Swedish!!!

är ni redo? Da kör vi!!

Are you ready? Then let's GOOOO!!


Something close to that.

Gus looks very big compared to Rumble.
I did not realize this before the weigh ins.I thought they are pretty similar in size but they really are not.Now i see why Gus is such a big favourite. Rumble will have big problems because his strikes are mainly hooks and uppercuts.I can't see him catch Gus easy with these ,and also he is mostly flat footed so.. Left high kick will be almost impossible to work too.I also want to see what is his cardio if the match reaches the 4th round.It should be a great fight.

Don't forget that this card starts earlier than normal. 1pm PST / 4pm EST / 15:00 LP.net

Mousasi at -500 wtf... His interview seems weird, he says that he will now bring more emotion to the fight and that he will be aggressive, and the only reason people favor him so much is because he is supposed to cruise striking and not taking risk but apparently he is.

Also Hendo is pretty good at sneaking his famous right haymaker even against technical volume strikers, actually Bisping is a slower and dumber version of Mousasi but I wouldnt be surprised if Hendo manages to KO Mousasi too, remember how poorly Mousasi handled Jacare's wild hooks, he couldnt stay on the outside and just jab him away. Those seem like terrible odds, might even be worth a bet for the KO

Henderson is getting older and is looking worse in every next fight that he is in. No way he KO's Mousasi, whose chin is absolutely unreal and his stand up is levels above Hendo's. I think there is value here in the fight goes the distance line at +105. I am betting this.

Going to distance is a good bet,but the only problem is that it seems to me that Moussasi is going to try showcase his skills ,be more agressive and finish Hendo.I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for the takedown early and chokes out Henderson.If this does not happen ,it will go to distance(30-27) and be boring i think.Henderson who is 40 years old and very slow in general cutting weight OMG.I don't know how it will play out,maybe he gets knocked out even.

I think the main thing is nobody trusts Hendo coming off TRT. He's coming from having higher than average T levels for a prime athletic male, to 47 year old male t levels. It's a massive difference, and he's clearly lost like 7+ pounds of muscle. I mean like 2 months after the ban he came in at 199 against Cormier and was thrown around like a child. Sure, Cormiers wrestling is good, but Hendo looked like a deflated old man.

Also considering Beal at -200 here.

Mousasi looks to be in ridiculous shape. GG

Someone posted this on Sherdog:

Unibet has a bet for -175 that Mighty Mouse is still the champ on December 31st 2015. Basically it's like betting MM with -175 in the rematch vs Dodson since i dont think theres anyone else who can be competitive with him.

Actually they got the same bet for all men's divisions in the UFC:

TJ is +120
Aldo -105
Pettis +120
Lawler +188
Weidman +125
Jones -175
Cain -135

snapbet on cain

good god please have those lines elsewhere

bet your bankroll on cain if you have any money there

A new school semester started for me a couple days ago, so I won't really be betting much for the next four months. I'll stick to Kountermove and DraftKings till the semester is over.

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Final bets (only sticking to 2 bets for this event)

Ryan Bader +210 $10 for $21
Gustafsson, Taisumov, Bektic $30 for $30.99


Final picks

• Gustafsson > Johnson
• Mousasi > Henderson
• Bader > Davis
• Corassani vs. Sicilia (dunno, don't care.)
• Tumenov > Musoke
• Aliev > Robertson
• Ogle vs. Amirkhani (dunno, don't care.)
• Nedkov > Krylov
• Taisumov > Christodoulou
• Bektic > Redmond
• Erokhin > Pesta
• Beal > Seery

On January 24 2015 14:05 nicksson wrote: snapbet on cain

On January 24 2015 14:22 Nazgul wrote: good god please have those lines elsewhere bet your bankroll on cain if you have any money there

Cain is scheduled to fight Werdum in June 2015, which is 1.5 years after his last fight. If Cain pulls out of his upcoming fight versus Werdum, he'll most likely be stripped of his title. I believe Dana White mentioned something about stripping Cain if he pulls out (it makes sense cuz Werdum already has the Interim belt).

IMO, the best bet out of those champions is Jose Aldo -105. You're basically betting on him to beat Conor McGregor, and then one other fighter whom he already beat in the division. If you like Aldo -190 vs. Conor, you should love Aldo -105 to hold his belt on December 31st, 2015.

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Fight Pass prelims: http://www.vipleague.se/boxing/278345...-pass-prelims-live-stream-online.html
http://firstrowus1.eu/watch/315308/2/watch-ufc-on-fox:-early-preliminaries.html

On January 24 2015 14:40 PuertoRican wrote: Cain is scheduled to fight Werdum in June 2015, which is 1.5 years after his last fight. If Cain pulls out of his upcoming fight versus Werdum, he'll most likely be stripped of his title. I believe Dana White mentioned something about stripping Cain if he pulls out (it makes sense cuz Werdum already has the Interim belt). IMO, the best bet out of those champions is Jose Aldo -105. You're basically betting on him to beat Conor McGregor, and then one other fighter whom he already beat in the division. If you like Aldo -190 vs. Conor, you should love Aldo -105 to hold his belt on December 31st, 2015. ---------- Fight Pass prelims: http://www.vipleague.se/boxing/278345...-pass-prelims-live-stream-online.html http://firstrowus1.eu/watch/315308/2/watch-ufc-on-fox:-early-preliminaries.html

I like several of those bets. Cain is still the best though. No monies on Unibet sadly.

Forgot to say I bet $157.50 on Beal. Pretty much missed the first two rounds. How is he looking?

Tough fight to score

aldo's most likely follow up challenger is edgar. dont like -105. if hes 70% in both fights its -EV

Damn Beal is in survival mode. I'm praying he won the first two rounds and doesn't get finished lol.

On January 24 2015 15:24 Nazgul wrote: Damn Beal is in survival mode. I'm praying he won the first two rounds and doesn't get finished lol.

Not sure what I have to be impressed by , the fact that he has no cardio for a flyweight fight or the fact that he takes in so many punches and doesn't fall

edit: 2x 30-27 is kind of ridiculous though, he wont the fight imo as well but 30-27 ????

I'd go

Beal
Serry
Serry


Beal def needs to go back up to 135. Being dead tired by the 3rd round won't cut it if you wanna be elite. Especially at 125 where the elite guys could go 30 rounds 100 mph.

This will teach me not to bet on cancer survivors and fighters that I don't know well enough.

30-27, 30-27, 29-28 for Neil Seery... Yeah, okay...

Irishman are running good in January.

Now I have to wait for the main event just to go break even. SHITTY

Guess Aldo shouldn't leave it to the judges :D

I scored it for Seery.... but it was certainly closer than the judges made it seem.

Meh, the first two rounds were pretty close to me. I had the first for Beal, but I felt it could of gone either way.

God damn these shitty European fighters...

One is a hard hitting boxer with a shitty gas tank, while the other is a shitty fighter that can take a punch.

haha yeah, both had one round gas tank lol

How can the greek guy be a UFC fighter???

On January 24 2015 16:44 iop wrote: How can the greek guy be a UFC fighter???

Short notice fight. The Greek took the fight on 22 days notice. Taisumov was supposed to fight Yan Cabral.

Paul Redmond, the Irish guy who lost to Bektic, took his fight on short notice, too. 10 days short notice.

Terrible mismatch. That was embarassing.

Hopefully Nedkov takes next one.

That's easily the worst 55'er I've ever seen in the UFC. Not even close. At HW I'm not surprised when I see those types, but that guy has no business in even an RFA type promotion. I learned nothing about Tuisomov from that.

I kind of feel like Nick Diaz vs Anderson is rigged by Dana White for Nick Diaz to lose. Who better to pick than Nick Diaz to lose. Hes down.

On January 24 2015 17:03 Minsk wrote: I kind of feel like Nick Diaz vs Anderson is rigged by Dana White for Nick Diaz to lose. Who better to pick than Nick Diaz to lose. Hes down.

Nick asked for the fight. He only wants big fights.

I'll be betting on Diaz to win, even though Anderson is the more well-rounded fighter.

Damn no wonder i dont know the bulgarian he s pretty bad :D

Did Dana White say that? Dana White has a really close relationship with both of them, and Nick is down. Human race gets more value by Anderson winning than by Nick winning, which means Nick gets more value by Nick losing. I'm sure Dana White could convince Nick to do it, Nick would never tell, no value in telling. Theres just something fishy about them putting Anderson a year after he broke his leg clean off into an octagon. Those things don't really heal like that, put him against someone that wants to rebreak that leg, and they have a really good chance to do it, or fuck up the metal rod inside a lot.

I bet on Nick too a long time ago, I was actually pissed that they postponed the fight a month to let his leg heal more, but I really feel it has a good chance to be rigged. I don't like my bet anymore.

Took U1.5 on Krylov vs Nedkov, was good bet I think.

Andy Ogle vs. Makwan "Mr. Finland" Amirkhani

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If Anderson beats Diaz, he'll fight for the Middleweight title in his next fight, per Dana White.

Dana didn't say what happens if Diaz wins, but I think that Robbie Lawler saying he wants to take a break for a bit really means that the UFC told him to wait and let the guys below him fight each other, that way they can have Lawler vs. Diaz 2 for the title later in the year. If Diaz doesn't get TKO`ed in the first 2 rounds, his style might be enough to keep pressure on Anderson and have the better cardio + constant attacks.

HOLY FUCKING SHIT AHHHHHHHHHHHHHAHAHA

holy shit what happend

mr. finland gg :D

lmao! Mr. Finland with the TKO!!!

Ogle is terrible~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

HOLY SHIT! LOL!

And Joe Rogan needs to shut up... Ogle was trying to TD the ref for fuck's sake. Was it early? Maybe. But seriously, you need to reserve your opinion on the live broadcast for 2 seconds... he's way to quick to jump the gun all the time.

Lived up to all his crazy hype lol.

Did he knock him out or was that a bad stoppage? His body was alive, but he was tackling the referee

Wow

God Joe is such an idiot now.

What is Joe talking about, questioning the referee live?

It looked premature but watching the replays it was a sound decision.

Whether or not it was a an early stoppage is up for debate was it a really bad stoppage compared to what we've seen? Absolutely not.

Joe Rogan just needs to give the guy his due and pick and choose when to really bring this kind of shit up.

That was awesome.

Amirkhani landed that uppercut on Ogle and dropped him, then Ogle started to react after the GnP woke him up a little. Ogle went into autopilot and grabbed the first leg he saw.

I think its a ref decision on the stoppage right now, both ways is fine.

Joe Rogan and his team alpha male bias is annoying, but that was awesome. Good stoppage.

Kenny Robertson up to +170... through 10 bux on him. He open at -125... just don't see why the line has moved that much.

Boom.

Aliev kept turning his hips to go for a spinning move, and then paid for it when he finally spun around.

Building off of that, betting Tumenov by decision at +300. His last KO win I remember being insanely impressed by. Musoke is a tough guy who actually put it on Kelvin Gastellum early and went the distance so I'm hoping he'll be able to take a beating but not get finished.

im confused, im hearing joe rogan sometimes and dan hardy or w/e his name is ( The british ex UFC fighter guy ) doing commentary sometimes too.. is it just my stream? Or are they each doing half a a job?

I'll feel pretty robbed if it's not a 29-28 for Tumenov. Great high level fight right there.

Tumenov looked great in round 2 and 3. Round 1 was close, which they'll probably give to Musoke.

Tumenov 2-1, clear win imo.

great fight. I need a robbery.

Bam baby, great judging.

On January 24 2015 18:18 milkman wrote: im confused, im hearing joe rogan sometimes and dan hardy or w/e his name is ( The british ex UFC fighter guy ) doing commentary sometimes too.. is it just my stream? Or are they each doing half a a job?

You're watching a british tv stream. Which has Dan Hardy doing commentary. But Joe still doing the actual interviews.

On TV in the US Joe is commentating and doing interviews.

Eh would've been absurd if they had given it to swede I felt like it might've been 30-27, but PR s probably right and they gave the first one to Mousuke was pretty close anyway
Pretty nice match up though

Oh man I like the Rick Story call-out. I think Tumenov takes that fight, his TD defense was outstanding and he's definitely the classier striker.

I'm taking Johnson. Based off Sweden fans not being super aggressive, Gustaffson injury, good odds, and his father dying.

DAMN! Sicilia with the one-hitter-quitter KO!

Wow, the Swedish crowd is so quiet.

On January 24 2015 19:23 goose58 wrote: Wow, the Swedish crowd is so quiet.

its almost 3 am there, im guessing attendance isnt exactly high, but the UFC doesn't care as long as they get their american viewers @ TV
Davis - Bader is a really boring fight, crowd pretty much showed em that they both already lost

On January 24 2015 19:44 Spitfiree wrote: Show nested quote + On January 24 2015 19:23 goose58 wrote: Wow, the Swedish crowd is so quiet. its almost 3 am there, im guessing attendance isnt exactly high, but the UFC doesn't care as long as they get their american viewers @ TV Davis - Bader is a really boring fight, crowd pretty much showed em that they both already lost

2nd biggest UFC gate of all time, most attended UFC of all time. IIRC.

On January 24 2015 19:44 Spitfiree wrote: Show nested quote + On January 24 2015 19:23 goose58 wrote: Wow, the Swedish crowd is so quiet. its almost 3 am there, im guessing attendance isnt exactly high, but the UFC doesn't care as long as they get their american viewers @ TV Davis - Bader is a really boring fight, crowd pretty much showed em that they both already lost

Attendance is 2nd to the UFC record at 30,000. This fight is just that bad.

This is not a suitable arena, I dont know, but it's a football stadium and people in front are sitting flat... and it's far away to the stands

but also a shitty fight.

I'm utterly pissed off that I didn't have money wherever the Bader +615 by decison line was and had to take the ML.

lol how did he win

I had it a draw, Round 1 Bader, Round 2 David, Round 3 draw.

YES! Bader lucked out with the white favoritism in Sweden~

I had Davis winning every round, but rounds 1 and 3 was close enough to give it to Bader. I'm glad Davis' punk ass didn't win, as he's terrible for the sport in the grand scheme of things.

Probably a bit biased that Bader threw him in the last 10 seconds

I just feel like that's a perfect place to put the good old draw to use. Neither man deserved a win. Both deserved a loss. And a draw is a loss in the context of both of their careers.

All that plus the rounds really were close enough to warrant draws in any of em besides round 2 that Davis clearly won.

Just bet $8.52 on Johnson via KO/TKO/DQ +352 as a hedge on my $30 parlay on Gustafsson/Taisumov/Bektic.

Just threw another one on Gus by decision at +386. I do think he'll probably get the finish but I like the odds and am running hot.

damn, Hendo looks old. Time to retire

That guy used to have the best chin in MMA.

If he wants to go fight in Bellator fine, but the UFC needs to make a statement and cut him for his own good. That was just pathetic.

And no, it was not an early stoppage.

On January 24 2015 20:14 northsails wrote: damn, Hendo is old as fuck. Time to retire

fyp

Seems to be the case with all these legends. BJ Penn, The Noguiera brothers and I think Anderson Silva is going to follow them soon enough. They just don't have the awareness to stop when It is time.

Can't wait for Gus to put a beating on Rumble. I hope it is a great fight.

On January 24 2015 19:52 Minsk wrote: I'm utterly pissed off that I didn't have money wherever the Bader +615 by decison line was and had to take the ML.

i had bader to win at +180, i think the ITD line was like +210 or something too close to make me wanna risk it, bader does have KO power somewhere

On January 24 2015 20:25 northsails wrote: Seems to be the case with all these legends. BJ Penn, The Noguiera brothers and I think Anderson Silva is going to follow them soon enough. They just don't have the awareness to stop when It is time. Can't wait for Gus to put a beating on Rumble. I hope it is a great fight.

Anderson hasn't taken anywhere near the damage the rest have. But I don't necessarily disagree.

Told you guys. His father died, you can see the sadness on him. They put him to perform in a major stadium in front of 40,000 countrymen.

holy shit

That sadness can take away killer instinct and create a hesitation, and thats deadly against Johnson.

Jon Jones may be in trouble guys. This guy is such a fucking destroyer.

Thank goodness I hedged on my parlay. Too bad Gustafsson lost, though. I wanted to get a goos price on Jones when they rematched.

Jon Jones would murder AJ.

On January 24 2015 20:51 Minsk wrote: Jon Jones would murder AJ.

He has great pressure and closed the distance very well against Gus. And he's got the power to put Jones ou t.

RUMMBBLLLEEE!!

Gustaffson lost this because he was injured and his father died. He lost his continuity, a top shape Gustaffson would have won. This wasn't a AJ victory, it was a Gustaffson loss.

let his country down

not a good day for the swedish fighters lol

well, congrats to rumble!

On January 24 2015 20:52 Minsk wrote: Gustaffson lost this because he was injured and his father died. He lost his continuity, a top shape Gustaffson would have won. This wasn't a AJ victory, it was a Gustaffson loss.

Whatever you say buddy

The Jones eye-pokes vs the shorter powerful and dangerous Johnson with a history of horrific eye injuries is going to be a huge talking point going into the fight, and rightfully so

On January 24 2015 20:52 Minsk wrote: Gustaffson lost this because he was injured and his father died. He lost his continuity, a top shape Gustaffson would have won. This wasn't a AJ victory, it was a Gustaffson loss.

wtf did you bet on gustafffson or something? so much bias, looks like a brazilian talking about a br who just lost

it was a great and quick counterattack, nothing that "top shape gustaffson" could have avoided. he was fighting like his usual self before getting hit.

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Skip to 7:25 of the video.