UFC FN 59: McGregor vs. Siver - Page 2

I would really recommend the 2nd round starting as a bet.

Cosmo help me out here what do you think about betting Overeem vs Nelson -240?

@floofy
It looked like you were using some custom program (grey background) etc

I didnt really look at the rules closely yet for draftking but there's a lot more than finishing fights that counts towards points right? Seems like a model for avg score would have to weigh all those datapoints (which i think you can get from fightmetric) together.

On January 11 2015 22:35 Nazgul wrote: I would really recommend the 2nd round starting as a bet. Cosmo help me out here what do you think about betting Overeem vs Nelson -240?

Think that line is sharp. Like before it would be something retarded like -600 Overeem. Even thou Big Country still has the power, he's at a pretty big reach disadvantage. This is definitely one of the better match-ups for Overeem in the HW division. He'll be able to land leg kicks to that fat stomach at will all fight. Think Overeem takes 3 round unanimous decision a lot here, and a few times Big Country will KO him in round 1 or 2.

On January 11 2015 14:50 Spitfiree wrote: Cerrone vs Henderson would be a much better main event tbh Don't think McGregor can win within 1 round plus Siver has a a pretty good chin as far as i remember

Cowboy vs Benson should be a great fight(100 times better than the main event)
I like both of them and i watched the first fight between them.I think there is a pretty big chance the same thing happens in this fight.If Cowboy wins give him a title shot.If Benson wins square him off with Khabib.This will be sick,maybe the two strongest fighters in the LW division.
And i think betting on Siever to get out of he first round is pretty coinflip.
If he circles all the time in the first round maybe he has a chance to survive ,but if he engages with Connor he is going down.And his chin is actually pretty weak.
I think he will get KO'd in the first.
But this injury thing is getting huge.Every card changes 5 times before it goes live.I think some of the guys just might pretend to be injured when they find themselves in pretty bad match ups. Like Alvares for example.He would get schooled by Benson.I think soon all of the Khabib's opponents will start to get injured,as he is the worst match up for everybody.

Think Khabib will just get a title shot in his next match although he s never fought anyone close to how good Pettis is, Benson would be a good test for him before a title shot indeed, but I don't really see who will get a title shot in the mean time

edit: oh i just saw they gave the shot to dos Anjos which is kind of stupid considering Khabib beat him and they are essentially fuckin Khabib up if Cerrone wins vs Henderson now

On January 12 2015 08:56 Spitfiree wrote: Think Khabib will just get a title shot in his next match although he s never fought anyone close to how good Pettis is, Benson would be a good test for him before a title shot indeed, but I don't really see who will get a title shot in the mean time edit: oh i just saw they gave the shot to dos Anjos which is kind of stupid considering Khabib beat him and they are essentially fuckin Khabib up if Cerrone wins vs Henderson now

Yah they should just make everyone wait while Khabib is injured.... clearly.

"Uriah Hall will be fighting UFC newcomer Ron Stallings on six days notice. Stallings trains with Team Lloyd Irvin in Maryland, where he has amassed a 12-6 record with one no contest. He has won three of his last four bouts, but enters the fight with Hall coming off of a unanimous decision loss in his last outing this past November."

I keep forgetting that this event is on Sunday, not Saturday. Either way, saying this guy has 6 days notice sounds better on paper. Does Stallings train year-round? If he doesn't, he'll have to get into fight-shape and start cutting weight and weigh in on Saturday. However, there's one upside to Stallings that I just noticed: he fought Adlan Amagov in Strikeforce in 2011 and lost via split-decision. If Stallings was terrible, he would've been knocked out by Amagov.

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Translated by some random guy on Sherdog

Dennis Siver is pissed. An Interview has been published where he speaks about his upcoming fight versus McGregor. Here are some highlights:

"Everybody thinks that I have already lost this fight. At least, this is what many Americans think. They believe every word of his gibberish. That's their attitude.

In my opinion he (McGregor) landed a lucky shot(vs.Poirier) as the fight was very competitive till that moment. None of his fights was impressive, he hasn't faced any exceptional fighters yet. I'm not impressed!

F**k his prediction! (referring to McGregors prediction to knock Siver out in under 2 minutes) I've stopped reading all the interviews as it is all getting too ridiculous

He's the same ***** behind the scenes as he's in front of the audience.That's the proof that he is a bad person and an as*****

Smashing McGregors face in will be more satisfying than getting a titleshot."


Siver will probably make sure he at least survives the first 2 minutes by any means necessary. I assume he'll stick to a heavy kicking game for the first half of round 1, probably some jabs with 1 big overhand to make Conor aware he isn't afraid of him, but never really committing to anything major until late-round 1 and then opening up a lot more in rounds 2 and beyond (5-round fight).

The biggest problem for Siver here is that it's a 5 rounder. He is gassed by the beginning of the 3rd usually, and I don't see him finishing McGregor via strikes. Maybe he could pull a sub or liver shot though.

Despite Benson being up 2-0 on Cerrone, I think this fight is close to a flip.

On January 11 2015 01:56 Nazgul wrote: isn't that fight really likely to start round two? I'm not at all convinced Connor is such a power puncher that he will just finish him instantly edit: thanks I bet $110

Well McGregor has finished 12 of his 16 wins in the first round, 11 of them being by t(ko). But Siver is his best opponent so far imo, and I do think it being a 5 rounder he might try to pace himself early.

On January 11 2015 23:30 TianYuan wrote: @floofy It looked like you were using some custom program (grey background) etc I didnt really look at the rules closely yet for draftking but there's a lot more than finishing fights that counts towards points right? Seems like a model for avg score would have to weigh all those datapoints (which i think you can get from fightmetric) together.

Yes its a program, but the user has to input the values of % to win and average score.

On January 12 2015 02:23 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On January 11 2015 22:35 Nazgul wrote: I would really recommend the 2nd round starting as a bet. Cosmo help me out here what do you think about betting Overeem vs Nelson -240? Think that line is sharp. Like before it would be something retarded like -600 Overeem. Even thou Big Country still has the power, he's at a pretty big reach disadvantage. This is definitely one of the better match-ups for Overeem in the HW division. He'll be able to land leg kicks to that fat stomach at will all fight. Think Overeem takes 3 round unanimous decision a lot here, and a few times Big Country will KO him in round 1 or 2.

Leg kicks to the stomach :D

Pretty decent card imo, but like many have said cerrone/henderson should be the five round fight.

On January 12 2015 15:18 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On January 11 2015 01:56 Nazgul wrote: isn't that fight really likely to start round two? I'm not at all convinced Connor is such a power puncher that he will just finish him instantly edit: thanks I bet $110 Well McGregor has finished 12 of his 16 wins in the first round, 11 of them being by t(ko). But Siver is his best opponent so far imo, and I do think it being a 5 rounder he might try to pace himself early.

Siver is probably not better than Holloway and certainly not better than Poirier imo

On January 12 2015 19:17 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On January 12 2015 15:18 Stim_Abuser wrote:   On January 11 2015 01:56 Nazgul wrote: isn't that fight really likely to start round two? I'm not at all convinced Connor is such a power puncher that he will just finish him instantly edit: thanks I bet $110 Well McGregor has finished 12 of his 16 wins in the first round, 11 of them being by t(ko). But Siver is his best opponent so far imo, and I do think it being a 5 rounder he might try to pace himself early. Siver is probably not better than Holloway and certainly not better than Poirier imo

Idd Siver s definitely not better than Poirier, but also plain statistics like those are so meh, might as well have 16 wins w TKO in the first round still wouldn't bet the fight finishing in 1 round

Dunno why youd think Poirier is better than Siver. I mean prior to McGregor, Poirier got rocked and dropped hard by both Brandao & Akira. His striking defense is pretty terrible, and his wrestling is average to below average. Siver has much better striking, much better defense, and much better wrestling. Which makes him a tougher test for McGregor Imo. At least for the first 3 rounds.

Sivers only lost 3 times in 7 years, to Cerrone, Pearson, and Swanson.

This all might be false though, since he's 36 and coming off steroids. So he might be significantly worse than he's been the last 7 years. Hard to say though.

So if i'm not mistaken, on DraftKings, We can still bet on Uriah Hall, but we cant bet on his new opponement?

On January 13 2015 17:58 Floofy wrote: So if i'm not mistaken, on DraftKings, We can still bet on Uriah Hall, but we cant bet on his new opponement?

No. Think about what you wrote.

You need two to tango.

On January 13 2015 18:59 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On January 13 2015 17:58 Floofy wrote: So if i'm not mistaken, on DraftKings, We can still bet on Uriah Hall, but we cant bet on his new opponement? No. Think about what you wrote. You need two to tango.

Yes but they put the name of Taylor in red, but Uriah Hall isn't grayed, And they updated who his opponement is (Stallings)

And above the contest, you can see the list of fights with little green checks, and Hall vs Stallings is there.

On January 13 2015 20:37 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On January 13 2015 18:59 PuertoRican wrote:   On January 13 2015 17:58 Floofy wrote: So if i'm not mistaken, on DraftKings, We can still bet on Uriah Hall, but we cant bet on his new opponement? No. Think about what you wrote. You need two to tango. Yes but they put the name of Taylor in red, but Uriah Hall isn't grayed, And they updated who his opponement is (Stallings) And above the contest, you can see the list of fights with little green checks, and Hall vs Stallings is there.

The top area shows Hall vs. Stallings, but the box down below shows Hall vs. Taylor. It's obviously an error, or it's not updated yet. It would make no sense to only offer one fighter in a 1 vs. 1 match.