I know there are many topics on this but.. - Page 3

On November 24 2006 09:58 RaSZi wrote: who cares.. i been losing 4 months and i won 65k in tourneys this week.. shit happens it will change and it can go fast .. just keep playing have people watch you play.

but your an insanley good tourney player

any time i have a really bad losing streak and i start losing confidence in my game, i switch to a different game for about a week
maybe try out sngs for a while, shl, omaha, i dno
kinda clears your head and gets you thinking more about your game than your run of bad luck

the last bad down swing i had at shl i was down around 150 bb's over a couple weeks, i switched to playing some shnl for a while, made back some of my losses, and went back to shl and have been winning consistantly since.

VARIANCE IN NL IS MUCH MUCH BIGGER THAN YOU COULD IMAGINE

100k hands is nothing. not today. maybe a few years ago when play was much more passive variance in nlh was much smaller. but today it definitely is huge, with the aggressive way the games play out. 3betting preflop light, defending from light 3bets by calling light and using the allin move postflop/4betting preflop, thin value bets, thin bluffs, thin calls, floating, bluffraising, semibluffing allin with draws, allin preflop AK v QQ flips, so much high variance stuff is the norm. in an aggressive game 80k hands is really not much of a sample at all.

i can relate with you twisted, i havent won shit in the last 2 months. check out graphs:

July-end of September, little over 200k hands 12tabling 2/4 3/6 5/10.


poker seemed pretty easy, not sure what if anything i was doing "right" then that im not doing now. stuff just went my way constantly and i came to expect it. every session i sat id go up 2-5 buyins and think nothing of it.


Beginning of October-present


suddenly im barely more than breakeven for the last 150k hands, under a quarter of my previous winrate. what the hell happened? isnt 150k hands supposed to be very significant statistically? i doubt it. did i somehow get worse at poker? maybe, i hope not. did the games get tougher? maybe, i hope not. the thing is, every human alive even nazgul will let how they're running affect how they're playing. the extent to which that happens can vary a lot from person to person, but it happens in a much more subtle way than the images that are conjoured up by the word "tilt" (read: b buddy style allin every hand). you might become slightly more reckless and aggressive, fold preflop much less when facing reraises and play more gamble happy. you might go the other way and become more timid in marginal situations because its hard to not expect to lose again if thats what happened the last few times in a similar situation. you might find you don't pull the trigger in big pots in a good +ev bluff spot because you are leaking so much money every hand and all you can think about is how you got called last time and u dont wanna get called again. we all laugh at fish who play hands in an unorthodox way based on the results of what happened the last few times, ie ppl who used to slowplay AA and put the money in after being outdrawn now start raising 15bb preflop trying to avoid another "bad beat" at all costs, but this could be what actually happens to winning players too, just in a much more subtle and less extreme way. are you and i playing differently as a result of not being able to win any money? almost definitely. is this a bad thing? impossible to tell but probably.

although theres probably an extent of playing bad resulting in running bad, and "life tilt" being the result of the vicious cycle that creates, id still say these graphs do a pretty good job of showing 100k hands is really not that much. maybe if you stick with poker, in the future you'll have a really nice 100k hands where more things go your way, which will result in making a TON more and feeling a lot better about poker. here's to running good, because thats all this game's really about.

Twisted, take a break man, have tons of fun, for like 1-2 months, then come back.

The stress of being on tilt or not winning are causing more damage, just relax for some time, try not to think about it.

GL man

btw, nice graph Ket

nice post Ket

how do you make these graphs anyway? I'm using PT now to track my results

nazgul, you need to get pokergrapher, or pokerpatterns!

http://sourceforge.net/project/showfiles.php?group_id=149136

Poker is gay.

got some error when trying to run that program after installation

pokerpatterns is no longer available. i found this out after i uninstalled it.

oh, but i still got the pokerpatterns install file. still works =)
oh, and nazgul, i think you need to download the latest .net framework from microsoft for the program to work. install that and it should work.

http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/de...-8edd-aab15c5e04f5&displaylang=en

http://83.149.84.143/~muse/pokerpatternsv17.zip

got this link from here

hf

very lucid, helpful, insightful post ket. well done.

going on that note, maybe you should do some serious data analysis (@ twisted). it will be really tedious, but make a spreadsheet with all of your hands where your net was over 20bb (or net was under -20bb, you want to analyze both wins and losses) or something, and just note for each one what your net was, and whether you made a mistake in the hand. you can use a notation system something like

"yes" = i made a mistake
"no" = i was outdrawn
"ul" = shitty situation you usually can't get away from, like set over set in a raised pot

if you have a ton of UL's and "no"s, obv we should tell you "it's just variance." if you have any "yes"s, work on improving from those.

but be very very very very honest with yourself about the mistakes you make. it's difficult, but if you make a mistake, fess up. for instance, i genuinely think i made a mistake going broke in this hand, because alarms were ringing in my head and my instincts were telling me he had KK when he raised the turn, but i convinced myself that he might have AA and put me on AK:

Submitted by : [vital]Myth

PokerStars Game #7121454368: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2006/11/21 - 21:50:29 (ET)
Table 'Achaia' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: sfman614 ($141.05 in chips)
Seat 2: BrotherSpice ($36 in chips)
Seat 3: HHHthegame88 ($554.95 in chips)
Seat 4: Xblood ($307.80 in chips)
Seat 5: The Hobbitt ($96 in chips)
Seat 6: Tecknowledgy ($304.50 in chips)
Tecknowledgy: posts small blind $1
sfman614: posts big blind $2

Holecards
Dealt to Tecknowledgy
BrotherSpice: folds
HHHthegame88: folds
Xblood: raises $6 to $8
The Hobbitt: folds
Tecknowledgy: calls $7
sfman614: folds

Flop (Pot : $18)

   
Tecknowledgy: checks
Xblood: bets $10
Tecknowledgy: raises $23 to $33
Xblood: calls $23

Turn (Pot : $84)

   
Tecknowledgy: bets $60
Xblood: raises $90 to $150
Tecknowledgy: calls $90

River (Pot : $384)

   
Tecknowledgy: checks
Xblood: bets $116.80 and is all-in
Tecknowledgy: calls $113.50 and is all-in

Showdown
Xblood: shows (three of a kind, Kings)
Tecknowledgy: mucks hand
Xblood collected $608 from pot

Summary
Total pot $611 | Rake $3
Board  
Seat 1: sfman614 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: BrotherSpice folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: HHHthegame88 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Xblood showed and won ($608) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 5: The Hobbitt (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Tecknowledgy (small blind) mucked

heh i didn't play as much as you guys but it's pretty much the same situation.
september & beginning of october
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/678/3733/1600/331193/sept-oct.jpg



now
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/678/3733/1600/427047/mid-oct-november.jpg

i suck at poker

lol, im in similar spot too, tore it up Sept. half of oct. sucking it up since then.

November has really been sucking balls for me.

NOVEMBER SUX!

9k hands this week... nothing much to do and yea i barely broke even =/

my only losing month ever was November 2005, and it looks like Nov. 2006 will be #2

not a nice graph joe ;(