Fucking Cyprus bullshit

geopolitical risk too OP
Although at the end of the day it's just 1 trade and nothing you can't come back from. You can just chalk this one up to variance

both Euro and USD is equally fucked

I was anticipated that the USDX would go back down to 81, maybe at least 81.2. I did try to go short Usd/Jpy but couldn't get my order hit. The loss is less than 1% of my equity, and it's no big deal, but just a little frustration. (moreso because I couldn't get out even after my broker opened, and then somehow kept getting into positions by clicking "close position." Hopefully my broker will refund the loss on the unwarranted positions.

I hear there is going to be a vote on Tuesday about the Cyprus stuff, and everyone's really gloomy about. Though, however, I am also hearing that most of the bank accounts that are getting robbed belong to Russians, not Cypriots.

move and adjust your stop-lost's

Seems like one of those, whatever happens the Euro will take a hit. USD is crap but considered a safe haven.

On March 17 2013 16:59 Trolala wrote: move and adjust your stop-lost's

I had one, however, you can't adjust anything once the weekend hits. Also, once price GAPS below your stop, it becomes useless.

Made up for the loss by going long at 1.2895. Got stopped out a little too early, though. Meh. If price returns to that level within the week, I will enter long again. However, I will put a stop inc case the level breaks, which I highly doubt. If it does, then I'm looking for 1.27.

are u doing this kind of thing professionally at a company's trading desk, or punting around your own money while sitting at home in your undies? just curious if the latter category actually exist as ive been lead to believe its impossible to win and the broker rake will anal you

On March 18 2013 17:11 Ket wrote: are u doing this kind of thing professionally at a company's trading desk, or punting around your own money while sitting at home in your undies? just curious if the latter category actually exist as ive been lead to believe its impossible to win and the broker rake will anal you

I am looking to get a trading job, but I will most likely have to relocate, so I'm saving up money. I'm doing retail for now, but I don't like doing the scalping and staring at screens. I just look at the chart, identify a few areas and then come up with a small plan, put in my limit orders and leave. If you scalp, the rake can fuck you, but if you hold your trades for a long time, the rake is nothing. Though, you have to worry about roll over, though that can also help you. I pay about 1.5-2.5 pips on average per total position. (entry and exit combined, unlike faggot stocks.)

I'm trying to get better at "freerolling" my winnings, meaning I add on whenever I get an extra MMR (minimum margin requirement) which is usually around $20. (I trade micro) The bigger guys have to worry about management fees, commission, and other stuff because they are paying for extra information and order books and whatnot. I just try to buy low and sell high. Been doing this for a year and I haven't come close to busting yet. Pretty much BE due to my inability to put my money where my mouth is. Once that is done, things should be smooth sailing for the rest of my life.

On March 18 2013 17:11 Ket wrote: are u doing this kind of thing professionally at a company's trading desk, or punting around your own money while sitting at home in your undies? just curious if the latter category actually exist as ive been lead to believe its impossible to win and the broker rake will anal you

The latter category does exist but are rarely successful. The successful ones are usually the guys who were trading at a professional desk but have enough confidence in their edge that they are willing to take on 100% of the risk so they don't have to share their profits with a firm. Top traders at trading firms don't stay very long as they either go start their own hedge funds or go retail for more freedom in their lifestyle.

If you are at the least decent at poker, then you have a very big edge. I've talked to a few poker players on a forex forum and they are similar to me, and on 2+2, their investing subforum is pretty informative too

-

Wipe that smileticon off your damn post, RIGHT THIS MINUTE!

USDX in pic above.

But really, the red day where the black line is when I went long eur/usd. Around the top, but just a few ticks/pips away from the top/bottom. (usdx for ticks top/ eur/usd for pips/bottom.)

I don't like trading based off fundamentals or technical. People like to say that past results does not guarantee future performance, but one can exploit people in poker due to past results. I try to think of areas where brokers and interbanks are going to minimize their risk and let others take their exposure off their balance sheets.

Eur/Usd did break the 1.29 level, but it just did a 75 pip move in a minute right now, so I gotta check that out.

-

On March 19 2013 14:51 2c0ntent wrote: Glad to see profitability. I'd like to learn a bit about how you search for trades of that type.

I guess there are a few fundamentals I follow and that's things like quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates soon, maybe within the year or by 2016, which is when they have it planned. They will also be selling off their balance sheet to counter the dollar from getting too strong too fast. Best time to buy up the dollar was just before the new year, imo.

It's a bit hard to explain how I see these trades because when I look at the chart, I'm looking for a smooth curve down or up, or a very, very tight price range that persists, or use previous lows/highs on a large time frame as points of reference.

Daily charts of Eur/Chf, Usd/Hkd, and Aud/Usd. I wanted to go long eur/chr around august last year but was too much of a noob back then. Did manage to get long in usd/hdk but didn't like the profit per pip, so I took my money out to use elsewhere. The Aud/Usd shows two points of reference which you can see the latest doji pierced through. I forget what happened around that time, but I got stopped out on that trade. (doji is a candle type, though trading candle formations like a bearish engulfing bar are things I don't do. You might be able to find some luck with them, though.)




Then there's the Usd/Jpy monthly in which these lines help me to see just how smooth the lows/highs are curving. I'm still working on that idea, so I don't trade off it too much, but it helped me to start taking time into account, rather than just price direction.


Buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading, though. Once price leaves a level I like, I won't touch it until it moves to another level I like. I never, ever, ever chase trades.

Based on my experience working at a trading firm, most retail "day traders" have no idea wtf they are doing. In most cases they aren't even thinking about the same thing as the professional traders do. In fact, being on the other side of their trades, one has to wonder whether they are thinking at all. On top of that, people who rely on technical analysis (aka reading charts) are essentially reading tea leaves with all the financial success that can be expected from that activity. You know when you are in a poker game and a dude shows up and plays 100% of his hands and will call pot size all-in bet to see one more card to make his baby flush draw. Then he will turn to you and talk about his deep thought-out strategy for playing poker that he's been using for the past 10 years, and you can tell this dude isn't even playing the same game as you. Without trying to be overly harsh, when it comes to trading, the OP is that guy, and I can only chuckle at "buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading" comment. Yes, because there are all those people out there who purposefully try to buy high and sell low. It's like telling someone about your swimming technique by saying you like to stay on the surface of the water so that you can breathe. Thanks mate, that's helpful.

And another pearl: "Pretty much BE due to my inability to put my money where my mouth is. Once that is done, things should be smooth sailing for the rest of my life." Now raise your hand if you've never heard this at the poker table.

For reference, when I talk about retail day traders I refer to people who move in and out of positions fairly quickly (hours, days, weeks etc.) and not buy and hold guys who buy a stock and hold it for the next few years (mind you, those have a variety of faults of their own). The sad thing is that, just like with poker, there is a lot of information out there based in years and decades of research that shows why what the OP does cannot possibly work, gives historical evidence for it not working (ever) and even goes into some detail regarding what professional traders do, how they do it and why they are able to stay profitable (most of the time).

The financial industry is very good at pitching the idea that retail traders can do well. Incorrect information spread both purposefully and due to ignorance on TV, through books, articles, financial websites only exacerbates the problem, as does people's tendency to lack the drive to search for disconfirming information to the opinion they hold. That tendency is what keeps the fish at the poker table from wondering about their strategy over the course of 10 years of playing.

This post was far longer than what I had intended, but this is type of misconception about trading and investing activities is something I see a lot and it never ceases to amaze me.

As for the OP getting a trading job, the only way I see that happening is if he has a personal connection who would be willing to hire him. Being a (good) poker player, assuming he is, is something that can definitely work in his favor since traders generally view that very positively. However, the truth of the matter is that most trading jobs are already spoken for, as those firms recruit at top schools and have very few positions for anyone who isn't studying there. For example, JP Morgan US, to use a name most people will recognize, in a recent year hired 8 traders for its summer Trading internship (from which most of its full-time hires are made). Two of those positions went to Chicago Booth MBA, two to Harvard MBA, two, I believe to Columbia MBA, and the remaining two to all other applicants, of which there were a couple of hundreds for each spot. Competition may not be as tough at some smaller prop shops, but they aren't exactly talking walk-ins either.

I will conclude with a simple question to the OP. Seeing as you are looking for a job in trader, what type of trading do you want to do, why, and what do you think a person in that job actually does (please don't say buy and sell securities and try to make money)? You don't need to post it here, just know for yourself. Unless your answer to that is crisp, somewhat complete and at least approaches having the facts right, whatever slim chance you may otherwise have for securing a trading job, is actually not slim at all, it's non-existent.

-

On March 20 2013 00:35 phexac wrote: Based on my experience working at a trading firm, most retail "day traders" have no idea wtf they are doing. In most cases they aren't even thinking about the same thing as the professional traders do. In fact, being on the other side of their trades, one has to wonder whether they are thinking at all. On top of that, people who rely on technical analysis (aka reading charts) are essentially reading tea leaves with all the financial success that can be expected from that activity. You know when you are in a poker game and a dude shows up and plays 100% of his hands and will call pot size all-in bet to see one more card to make his baby flush draw. Then he will turn to you and talk about his deep thought-out strategy for playing poker that he's been using for the past 10 years, and you can tell this dude isn't even playing the same game as you. Without trying to be overly harsh, when it comes to trading, the OP is that guy, and I can only chuckle at "buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading" comment. Yes, because there are all those people out there who purposefully try to buy high and sell low. It's like telling someone about your swimming technique by saying you like to stay on the surface of the water so that you can breathe. Thanks mate, that's helpful. And another pearl: "Pretty much BE due to my inability to put my money where my mouth is. Once that is done, things should be smooth sailing for the rest of my life." Now raise your hand if you've never heard this at the poker table. For reference, when I talk about retail day traders I refer to people who move in and out of positions fairly quickly (hours, days, weeks etc.) and not buy and hold guys who buy a stock and hold it for the next few years (mind you, those have a variety of faults of their own). The sad thing is that, just like with poker, there is a lot of information out there based in years and decades of research that shows why what the OP does cannot possibly work, gives historical evidence for it not working (ever) and even goes into some detail regarding what professional traders do, how they do it and why they are able to stay profitable (most of the time). The financial industry is very good at pitching the idea that retail traders can do well. Incorrect information spread both purposefully and due to ignorance on TV, through books, articles, financial websites only exacerbates the problem, as does people's tendency to lack the drive to search for disconfirming information to the opinion they hold. That tendency is what keeps the fish at the poker table from wondering about their strategy over the course of 10 years of playing. This post was far longer than what I had intended, but this is type of misconception about trading and investing activities is something I see a lot and it never ceases to amaze me. As for the OP getting a trading job, the only way I see that happening is if he has a personal connection who would be willing to hire him. Being a (good) poker player, assuming he is, is something that can definitely work in his favor since traders generally view that very positively. However, the truth of the matter is that most trading jobs are already spoken for, as those firms recruit at top schools and have very few positions for anyone who isn't studying there. For example, JP Morgan US, to use a name most people will recognize, in a recent year hired 8 traders for its summer Trading internship (from which most of its full-time hires are made). Two of those positions went to Chicago Booth MBA, two to Harvard MBA, two, I believe to Columbia MBA, and the remaining two to all other applicants, of which there were a couple of hundreds for each spot. Competition may not be as tough at some smaller prop shops, but they aren't exactly talking walk-ins either. I will conclude with a simple question to the OP. Seeing as you are looking for a job in trader, what type of trading do you want to do, why, and what do you think a person in that job actually does (please don't say buy and sell securities and try to make money)? You don't need to post it here, just know for yourself. Unless your answer to that is crisp, somewhat complete and at least approaches having the facts right, whatever slim chance you may otherwise have for securing a trading job, is actually not slim at all, it's non-existent.

You sound like one of those people who keeps telling me, irl, that it's impossible to ever win at poker, it's completely totally random, there's no fucking sense in ever trying. I hate that type of thinking. If the retail markets were a scam, why don't they just shut it down instead of introducing bullshit legislation like the Frank Dodd act?

When I first started out, I used to only trade off charts, using MA strategies and whatnot, trying to scalp. Never thinking about who's actually doing what. However, I started to realize that that's not what the bigger guys do. I am trying to hold my positions for a very long time, but according to you, I could NEVER get a winning trade, right? I don't know for a fact how the interbanks trade, however, I do understand that they can not buy or sell an entire position all at once, they must do it in parts due to liquidity and market stability. I understand that my broker takes the other side of my trade or matches me in house. Or, am I just talking out of my ass here?

I'm not looking to be a trader right off the bat in a firm, but looking to do something around the office like an assistant or even a fucking janitor or something. (lord knows that I'll need a masters in dish-washing to be a janitor)(I've actually seen a legit job listing wanting a degree for a dish-washer job) I know that these firms don't simply buy and sell to speculate, but to transact customer's wants and needs. Like Apple needing to pay Foxconn or whoever it is that makes their products in China. They have to go through a bank to exchange their money. Or am I completely wrong?

Hence the saying: One may KNOW how to conquer without being able to DO it.

How is it that I kept "knowing" where price would turn around, and started to "do it" with an increased frequency, albeit a slow progression? Literally, am I just getting lucky that many times? The main thing that stops me is NOT sticking to my plan, not allowing enough flexibility with my risk, not having the balls to get into the position in the first place. I got tired of watching price move in the direction I would think it would move, so I started to change how I did things. It seems to be working a little, because the winning trades I've been able to make have been getting bigger and bigger. But that's just probably luck and a very mishap according to you.

Sorry if I sound like I'm pissed or venting, because I am. Fucking dog keeps waking my ass up.

On March 20 2013 01:02 2c0ntent wrote: Show nested quote + On March 19 2013 23:09 Gnarly wrote:   On March 19 2013 14:51 2c0ntent wrote: Glad to see profitability. I'd like to learn a bit about how you search for trades of that type. I guess there are a few fundamentals I follow and that's things like quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates soon, maybe within the year or by 2016, which is when they have it planned. They will also be selling off their balance sheet to counter the dollar from getting too strong too fast. Best time to buy up the dollar was just before the new year, imo. Interesting predictions. My own reason for being long USDX is three-fold. The first part is the stage: The USD is still a primary store of value in the developed world's respective central banks. The second part, the waiting dynamite of the equation, is my interpretation of today's world economic scenario being that the USD's value is depressed globally by excessive credit denominated in USD being issued. The third aspect is that tragic catalyst, where I predict that the global or domestic USD credit bubbles will somehow be "popped". So I'm basically long gamma and trying not to get sucked into blowing my investment wad all at once.. But I think I'm getting hustled buying options on the UUP ETF because the bleed from option premium decay coupled with the .75% of assets(!!) fee that the ETF management charges really hurts over time.. BTW wouldn't it be crazy if we ended up with a one world government after a true global economic collapse enabled the world's central banks (which hold a lot of USD cash reserves) to buy up their countries for pennies on the dollar? That 1%'er thing will sound like a joke (even though its really the .01% today).   Gnarly also said: + Show Spoiler + It's a bit hard to explain how I see these trades because when I look at the chart, I'm looking for a smooth curve down or up, or a very, very tight price range that persists, or use previous lows/highs on a large time frame as points of reference. Daily charts of Eur/Chf, Usd/Hkd, and Aud/Usd. I wanted to go long eur/chr around august last year but was too much of a noob back then. Did manage to get long in usd/hdk but didn't like the profit per pip, so I took my money out to use elsewhere. The Aud/Usd shows two points of reference which you can see the latest doji pierced through. I forget what happened around that time, but I got stopped out on that trade. (doji is a candle type, though trading candle formations like a bearish engulfing bar are things I don't do. You might be able to find some luck with them, though.) Then there's the Usd/Jpy monthly in which these lines help me to see just how smooth the lows/highs are curving. I'm still working on that idea, so I don't trade off it too much, but it helped me to start taking time into account, rather than just price direction. Buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading, though. Once price leaves a level I like, I won't touch it until it moves to another level I like. I never, ever, ever chase trades. I'm going to keep an eye on this charting stuff, pretty interesting to see the real phenomena, in real time, of price discovery.

There are more reasons why I'm long USD, and some include the petrodollar idea. The panama canal has been expanded which will allow major US ports to increase their traffic. The Port of Houston is primarily energy transportation, and with fracking, I can see that America will be exporting more and more and more energy. This could allow Israel to change the maps in the Middle East due to hurting Saudi Arabia's dominance in the region. The US does plan to be the top exporter for a while, and then slow it down around 2025-2030. This will increase the demand for the dollar.

America is going to be exporting a lot of tech and research, and will be able to start increasing their dominance in plastic exports because of the fracking and whatnot. Also, we are getting rid of the jobs in China because outsourcing is becoming less cost-effective over automation. Then you have the military. We're using drones more and more, and keep automating in that field more and more.

I highly doubt that there would be a one world government. Corporations will be able to build their own personal automated armies soon, and I think corporations will replace what we know as governments.

On March 20 2013 06:15 Gnarly wrote: You sound like one of those people who keeps telling me, irl, that it's impossible to ever win at poker, it's completely totally random, there's no fucking sense in ever trying.

Was pretty sure that this was going to be your response as it is consistent with the reasons for which you do what you do--tendency to not look for disconfirming information. The fact that you compare me to someone who, without much experience, states that winning at poker is impossible, despite the fact that I've stated I do trading as a profession, pretty much sums up your ability to objectively assess your activity. What I am telling you isn't an opinion or "attitude," it is a statement of fact based on quite a bit or research both academic and for profit.

OP plays play money?

On March 20 2013 00:35 phexac wrote: Based on my experience working at a trading firm, most retail "day traders" have no idea wtf they are doing. In most cases they aren't even thinking about the same thing as the professional traders do. In fact, being on the other side of their trades, one has to wonder whether they are thinking at all. On top of that, people who rely on technical analysis (aka reading charts) are essentially reading tea leaves with all the financial success that can be expected from that activity. You know when you are in a poker game and a dude shows up and plays 100% of his hands and will call pot size all-in bet to see one more card to make his baby flush draw. Then he will turn to you and talk about his deep thought-out strategy for playing poker that he's been using for the past 10 years, and you can tell this dude isn't even playing the same game as you. Without trying to be overly harsh, when it comes to trading, the OP is that guy, and I can only chuckle at "buying low and selling high is the foundation of my trading" comment. Yes, because there are all those people out there who purposefully try to buy high and sell low. It's like telling someone about your swimming technique by saying you like to stay on the surface of the water so that you can breathe. Thanks mate, that's helpful. And another pearl: "Pretty much BE due to my inability to put my money where my mouth is. Once that is done, things should be smooth sailing for the rest of my life." Now raise your hand if you've never heard this at the poker table. For reference, when I talk about retail day traders I refer to people who move in and out of positions fairly quickly (hours, days, weeks etc.) and not buy and hold guys who buy a stock and hold it for the next few years (mind you, those have a variety of faults of their own). The sad thing is that, just like with poker, there is a lot of information out there based in years and decades of research that shows why what the OP does cannot possibly work, gives historical evidence for it not working (ever) and even goes into some detail regarding what professional traders do, how they do it and why they are able to stay profitable (most of the time). The financial industry is very good at pitching the idea that retail traders can do well. Incorrect information spread both purposefully and due to ignorance on TV, through books, articles, financial websites only exacerbates the problem, as does people's tendency to lack the drive to search for disconfirming information to the opinion they hold. That tendency is what keeps the fish at the poker table from wondering about their strategy over the course of 10 years of playing. This post was far longer than what I had intended, but this is type of misconception about trading and investing activities is something I see a lot and it never ceases to amaze me. As for the OP getting a trading job, the only way I see that happening is if he has a personal connection who would be willing to hire him. Being a (good) poker player, assuming he is, is something that can definitely work in his favor since traders generally view that very positively. However, the truth of the matter is that most trading jobs are already spoken for, as those firms recruit at top schools and have very few positions for anyone who isn't studying there. For example, JP Morgan US, to use a name most people will recognize, in a recent year hired 8 traders for its summer Trading internship (from which most of its full-time hires are made). Two of those positions went to Chicago Booth MBA, two to Harvard MBA, two, I believe to Columbia MBA, and the remaining two to all other applicants, of which there were a couple of hundreds for each spot. Competition may not be as tough at some smaller prop shops, but they aren't exactly talking walk-ins either. I will conclude with a simple question to the OP. Seeing as you are looking for a job in trader, what type of trading do you want to do, why, and what do you think a person in that job actually does (please don't say buy and sell securities and try to make money)? You don't need to post it here, just know for yourself. Unless your answer to that is crisp, somewhat complete and at least approaches having the facts right, whatever slim chance you may otherwise have for securing a trading job, is actually not slim at all, it's non-existent.

ty for posting and sharing this insight

On March 20 2013 12:14 Rinny wrote: OP plays play money?

Being that I live in the states, I can't play online for real money, only live. I can't play live anymore because I'm no longer invited to the games because I kept winning them. (this isn't a brag because they were bad bad fish)

On March 20 2013 08:37 phexac wrote: Show nested quote + On March 20 2013 06:15 Gnarly wrote: You sound like one of those people who keeps telling me, irl, that it's impossible to ever win at poker, it's completely totally random, there's no fucking sense in ever trying. Was pretty sure that this was going to be your response as it is consistent with the reasons for which you do what you do--tendency to not look for disconfirming information. The fact that you compare me to someone who, without much experience, states that winning at poker is impossible, despite the fact that I've stated I do trading as a profession, pretty much sums up your ability to objectively assess your activity. What I am telling you isn't an opinion or "attitude," it is a statement of fact based on quite a bit or research both academic and for profit.

I didn't see that you stated that you professionally trade, just that you knew of some who do. What exactly are you telling me? Quit?

I'd also like to know a few things about how you trade, phexac. Do you trade in a pit or in an office? Do you ever read a chart, or tape-read, or is that too retail for you? Got quants that make an automated system for you? Are you able to read order books? Instead of being negative, why not give some insight into what you actually do? You typed up that really long post, and I'm just asking for a couple of pointers. About a 20th of the post you typed up, maybe.

Instead of making it seem like it's literally impossible for me to ever have a winning trade, that I can never possibly do anything right, which I know for a fact I've been able to win more trades lately than when I first started, why not give some pointers? I'm not asking for a full on mentorship or anything, but being in the finance world is something I'm very interested in. Instead of trying to crush the motivation I have, why not give just a couple pointers?

I know it's astronomically against me that I can be successful being a retail guy. Should that stop me, or anyone who has a will to be successful? Has anyone, ever, in the entire history of the world, ever made it with individual trading? I like the challenge, and I view the markets as the MOST challenging thing I could possibly do.

Sorry if I sound pissy, I didn't get enough sleep because my dog kept barking her head off.

in my opinion you can make money trading.

you have to work hard and work smart.

Here's a brief overview....

For most products (equities, currencies, fixed income, derivatives, etc.) there are several types of traders.

1. Execution - you have a trade from a client, execute it in an efficient manner, collect a fee. Say someone wants to sell 200,000 shares of Apple. That's a big trade that will likely move the market, so the trader will structure it over some time to try and get the best price for the client.
2. Sales trader - very similar to the above guy, except he is also responsible for client management. This guy is the result of automation and shrinking of the industry and margin. Where before you had a few sales guys and a few traders, now in some cases one dude can do all their jobs.
3. Market maker - this is what I do for options. The majority of this job is providing liquidity to the market for an edge and make your money on the spread. Your goal is to sell above fair value and buy below it. This means that you need to be quite good at figuring out what that fair value is. A lot of market makers will also do some prop trading where they will actually have an opinion regarding a security and try to trade on that. The latter makes up a relatively small portion of the activity though, say around 10%.
a. A subpoint to this is that when you trade, you are trading against this guy. If he makes money, you lose it, and you lose your broker commissions.
4. Pure prop traders - have an opinion, make bets based on it, hopefully profit. There is really not many of these guys. Usually prop trading will go along with another activity as in point 3.

Do not confuse prop traders with brokers. They do not do the same thing and have different compensation schema. Brokers purely match their customer with either another customer or a trader as they attempt to get them the best price. They live on commission and many actually don't have a very good idea about how traders make decisions. It's not their job and they don't really need to know.

Now, here are some reasons why a retail trader will have trouble.

1. Execution - Speed matters, and when I am talking about speed, I am talking microseconds. Trading operations have high levels of automation. A trader will control parameters of the trading system, but the system will do execution. This means it needs to send signals to and from the exchange as it places and executes orders. The speed of this signal depends on two factors - speed of system processing and ping of the connection. Trading operations spend millions to speed up both using hardware, software development, and looking for ways to get a faster connection. To give you an idea of how important it is and how much money is at stake, a few firms have considered building a series of their own microwave transmitters across the country from the their HQ to the exchange to shave off a few microseconds. With the communication speed they achieve, retail investor in their home relying on a broker to execute traders isn't even in the picture for any sort of top level trade execution. In practice that means that you are going to buy on average at a higher price and sell at a lower one. In a market as busy as currency, you just aren't getting in on a lot of the trades you need to make a profit. Your wins will be smaller and your losses larger than they need to be.

2. Support - traders at a shop have top of the line proprietary software, quants and analysts to help them keep track of the information they need and make decisions. A guy sitting alone at home simply cannot get access to the necessary information fast enough. In many products this means he likely does not have an edge. This includes currency, as it's a very complex market with a ton of liquidity and many many players. In the products where it is possible for a retail guy to win, the only practical way is specialization. Since I deal with options, I will talk about those. A retail trader needs to focus on one or two companies and get to know them super well. Well enough to gain an information edge over the field. This means this likely should not be one of the most active names. You aren't going to make a lot of money trying to trade Intel for example. The edges are just too small. Most traders fill those orders just to maintain the relationship with the broker and get in on better trades in less active names. Something smaller, with less activity, say Corning, maybe that is doable. The bottom line is, you need an information edge about whatever it is that you trade. You need to understand the product EXTREMELY well and know what moves it.

3. Capital - When your edge is in pennies, you need a lot of capital and a lot of activity to make any respectable amount of money. To get a larger edge, you need to know some information that the market does not then make the correct bet. That is incredibly hard.

Now here are the reasons why what you do cannot work

1. Chart reading doesn't work. You make money because you turn out to be right about the future. Charts offer no information about the future. This does not stop a significant number of people, even some professional traders, from trying to puzzle out the next move of their security through obsessive chart analysis that includes voodoo terms such as "Bearish Engulfing Pattern," "Ascending Channel" and "Bullish Harami." These people have a religious faith in their charts and when they lose money, they tend to say that they just didn't see what the chart was telling them or that they should have trusted their charts. Simple truth is they are all wrong and persist in their belief through an extremely heavy doze of confirmation bias and discarding of all disconfirming evidence.

2. Short-term predictions for security moves are very hard to make without possessing some real gem of information. Since you deal with currencies, the chances of you knowing something like that are zero. Any success you have had, along with any failure is 100% luck. Traders who make bets operate on expected value, which resonates very well with poker. As you should know from poker, this means you need to know the inputs for your expected value calculation and the reasons behind those inputs being what they are. I doubt that you have that for currencies. To put this in perspective, for large highly liquid markets such as currencies and equities many trading operations actually cannot make money because they lack the expertise and proprietary tools to do so. Only some institutions are able to do trade those products and make money. A lot of others simply admit they cannot make a profit and only have those operations to minimize trading loss they would get by going through a broker (which is by the way, who you are relying on). And keep in mind, these guys have huge financial resources, a ton of people trying to figure this out, and get a huge discount on the fees they pay (think rakeback). So let me put it to you this way, if you see a game where a player who is better than you, has a bigger bankroll, pays lower rake (their bets are bigger compared to the fees than your bets) and training resources and gets rakeback, while you do not, cannot make money, would you sit down to play in that game? Because this is exactly what you are doing right now in your trading.

So yes, it is possible to make money trading if you focus on a product you understand extremely well that isn't super popular. You fail on all three counts, you don't have focus, your understanding of your products is far inferior to that of the people you trade against, and the products you trade are extremely liquid with enormous volume. The bottom line is, yes it is literally impossible for you to have a positive long-term expectation in the trading that you do and your should stop. As far as exploring the possibility of focusing on a smaller product, it is still very hard to do without very good training, which is unfortunately very hard to come by. If you truly think that this is something you want to do, you need to go work professionally in the field, at least at first to learn how to do it well. This means go to school and then network and recruit for the job while you are there. But above all, yes absolutely, positively, no doubt about it, stop whatever it is you are doing now.

Outside of that, a lower degree of difficulty would be long-term investing where you buy and hold securities for a long time. Even there, it's hard to beat simply buying an index ETF and forgetting about it. The truth is that for the vast majority of people who want to make money in the market, even professionals, more activity leads to lower profit.

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Phexac, a lot more than I expected, and I do appreciate your post, there are just a few small things I have a problem with.

What does going to school help you with? I've heard that getting an economics degree is just for show, to show that you are "dedicated", and not so much teaching you how to trade. Surely, knowing economics is helpful, but isn't that the fundamental side? Isn't fundamentals and technicals both looked down on?

I appreciate that you typed up who the players are, as I've been working on a poker table metaphor for trading. I put the retail traders UTG and early spots, but I'm not sure if I want them in the blinds. After that, you've got their brokers. I don't know if I want to put in central banks, but if I do, they are the button and the game host, while brokers also host their own tables. I'm not going much into that, because it's still preliminary, but if you could give a thought on that, it would be much appreciated.

Now, I understand that the big big buys spend millions to get the fastest execution, and I've even heard of people trying to break into the NSYE server system, the physical servers, to get the fastest speeds, or something along those lines. However, as a retail guy, I'm not worried about a pip slippage if I'm aiming at a couple hundred pips. I am fine with this as long it's very minute; having my spread initially go from 2.5 pips to 3.5 or 4 pips isn't too much of a deal with me. Sure, if I ever had the money to be considered a big guy, but not the biggest guys, I'd care, but it's retail trading. Hardly any money on the line, so hardly any worry.

I don't know if you think that I trade just because of the charts, but that's not what I do. I don't look at just the charts, look to see where subjective S/R or S/D areas lie, but I do look at them for references after deciding whether or not the fiscal cliff is real or not or something similar. If I think the USD is going to be getting stronger, it's not because I read the charts, but because of macro economic factors, such as the petro dollar and war and tech. I don't know if you read my thoughts on why the USD will be getting stronger, but I'd like your thoughts on that.

I know about the candle patterns, but I don't trade off them. I don't do "double bottoms" or "double tops" or whatever.

You are right, I don't know how to quantify expected value for currencies, but then again, can anyone? In poker, don't you have to consider your villains range to be able to get a proper EV? If this is the case, then the interbanks(this may be the wrong term) would be guessing the ranges of their villains, since they can't see each others order books?

To take your example, If I were to play poker with someone and I weren't allowed to make money, why would I do that? Your example seems a bit off, because If I could not make money, then that would mean the cards are rigged, no? Or that he could see my hole cards, but then, I'd still make money when he folds. However, that would assume that it's just us two playing, which isn't the case. That player is playing against other larger stacks, no?

What I'd like you to respond to:

Why exactly is going to school needed?
The poker table metaphor.
My response to your poker game scenario.
What you think of my thoughts on the USD.

Thanks.