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k2o4 United States. Jan 05 2008 21:04. Posts 4803 | | |
I gotta be running hot. I am pretty sure that my LAG style has an edge @ NL100, but not THIS big. Ever since I started playing LAG on the 1st of January things have been going amazingly well. My last 2 sessions have been huge thanks to my newfound ability to FOLD in bad spots. I have also won a few flips which is definitely putting me ahead, but I think I'd still be winning even if I ran bad in them, just not @ such a huge level. Tonight was especially good since people were just donking off chips left and right. Sadly most of them were shortstacks... and I was running hot vs shortstacks which is nice but it sucks since I'm getting lucky in spots where there's not much profit. I'd much rather run well vs large stacks and bad vs shortstacks.
But fuck man, this sux. Last time I ran like this was when first moved to NL50. I was super hot and it was great but man o man, when I started losing again it really blew. I'm also looking at pokerEV and I'm looking break even in there... gay. I don't like the main graph's for pokerEV anymore cause it can't really take into account situations where you put them on a pretty accurate range and get it all in, but they have the least likely hand in their range. So it's a spot you should definitely push but all pokerEV knows is you got in with the worst of it so that's what it graph's. I like the all-in luck graph a bit better since it's just very clearly showing all-in situations, but it's still not perfect. It just shows if you sucked out/got sucked out on, not whether you made a good read and play based on the situation vs his range.
With all that, I still do feel like I'm running quite well. Not getting many set over set's or shit like that, and I especially tonight I hit most all of my draws. But that was mostly only in fights vs shortstacks where I pretty much won when best in big pots and lost when worst.
I just really hope that my success playing LAG isn't some sorta crazy heater rather than good play. I feel like I'm playing well and am only doing 4-5 tables and really paying very close attention to everything and trying to make the best decisions for the longterm. But I dunno, pokerEV just put some doubt in me. DAMN YOU POKEREV! I will keep posting hands and maybe make some videos of me playing so that good players can watch my overall game and see if I'm just luck-sacking my way through right now.
Anyway, here's tonights session:
And here's January so far since I started playing LAG (Pokergrapher keeps freezing so no regular graph):
Here are most of my big winners of the night and reasons I played them. Plz tell me if it seems like I'm luckboxing or not:
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353356 - Villain was super laggy and I'd seen him overbet the pot like that before and everyone folded. I felt like he was bluffing there and went with it. Checked in PT and I was ahead 56 to 44 on the flop, so it was a flop. I honestly expected him to fold and maybe call with a draw.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353364 - I'd seen him being pretty crazy so I figured it was ok to call the 4bet with position. After that flop I knew I was going all the way and snap called his push. I figured my A was good, hearts were good, T was probably good and maybe even the Q.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353358 - This guy was being very LAG, 3 betting me a lot, and had been aggro on the flop on scary boards w/ Air before. He's the guy who 4bet me with small suited 1gaps earlier and pushed on a 3 suited board. I honestly felt I'd take it with a Check-Raise. When he pushed I went "shit I'm behind" but felt that with the pot odds and the high chance that he'd do that with any pair 7 and up I had to call and got lucky.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353365 - Standard AA vs AK and A flops.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353367 - Standard AK vs AT when A flops and I induce his shove.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353368 - Again another standard AK vs AT and I bet it all the way. I'd been pretty good about building a maniacal image and felt he'd definitely call me down with any ace and maybe even a Q.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353369 - Not any real history vs this guy but he was pretty tight. I figured he'd repop me pre w/ AA or KK. When he flat'd and I saw that flop I felt I had to make a bet @ it and represent AA / KK and maybe fold out JJ and lower while having 6 outs vs QQ. Of course I had to call his raise. I felt that it was either check/fold or bet out cause a CR he'd be pot committed. Got lucky.
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/353370 - Again, standard 2pair vs TpTk and we get it in on the flop.
So those are my 8 biggest wins of the night. Half were standard and the rest seemed overall pretty good to me. The I checked a few more of my winners that are just below these and they're standard things like KK vs 22. So I don't FEEL like a luckbox!
Oh well, thanks for any comments. I think I'm doing ok and that LAG is working out very well for me =)
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Bejamin1 Canada. Jan 05 2008 21:08. Posts 7042 | | |
It must be nice to run insane hot in all-ins like you do. You're like $600 clear of expectation.. thats just nuts. I'm like $300 bellow expectation, which is equally insane. |
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| Sorry dude he Jason Bourned me. -Johnny Drama | |
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k2o4 United States. Jan 05 2008 21:14. Posts 4803 | | |
| | On January 05 2008 20:08 Bejamin1 wrote:
It must be nice to run insane hot in all-ins like you do. You're like $600 clear of expectation.. thats just nuts. I'm like $300 bellow expectation, which is equally insane. |
yeah I was looking @ that, but I'm just not finding those hands. I guess that I just got lucky in a few monster hands or something. Look through the hands I posted - I went from my biggest winners of the night and posted the top 8 biggest winning hands. I don't feel like I'm just lucksacking. |
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Question Czech Republic. Jan 05 2008 21:16. Posts 1074 | | |
wow ur luckbox  |
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k2o4 United States. Jan 05 2008 21:19. Posts 4803 | | |
| | On January 05 2008 20:16 Question wrote:
wow ur luckbox |
T_T
damnit!!!!!!!!!!!
hehe |
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| InnovativeYogis.com | Last edit: 05/01/2008 21:19 |
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F4Zi United Kingdom. Jan 05 2008 21:30. Posts 3462 | | |
awesome i think it is possible to run at about 15 |
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| My girlfriend started blowing me and then she stopped, I went on tilt and donkey punched her. | |
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Python817 Canada. Jan 05 2008 21:36. Posts 2733 | | | |
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SKoT United States. Jan 05 2008 21:36. Posts 1768 | | |
| | On January 05 2008 20:19 k2o4 wrote:
T_T
damnit!!!!!!!!!!!
hehe
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meh noone wants to hear their success is all luck but your stats are too stupidely insane to really deny it=/
keep riding that train though |
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WilsWils Canada. Jan 05 2008 21:51. Posts 285 | | |
yea 20 bi's in 4k hands is running reaaaaaaally good, but think of it this way, it'll help balance out the inevitable downswing, so grats to you and keep on bankin |
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k2o4 United States. Jan 05 2008 21:56. Posts 4803 | | |
| | On January 05 2008 20:36 SKoT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 05 2008 20:19 k2o4 wrote:
| | On January 05 2008 20:16 Question wrote:
wow ur luckbox |
T_T
damnit!!!!!!!!!!!
hehe
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meh noone wants to hear their success is all luck but your stats are too stupidely insane to really deny it=/
keep riding that train though |
Yeah, so true. Definitely NOT sustainable. I know that I'm running good and that I'm winning at a pretty high rate right now. I'm fine with that and ok with the fact that I'm winning much more than I should. I just want to be sure that I SHOULD be winning at all. =) |
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vegable United States. Jan 05 2008 22:06. Posts 2453 | | |
you must tape horseshoes to your balls to run that good |
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k2o4 United States. Jan 05 2008 22:20. Posts 4803 | | |
| | On January 05 2008 21:06 vegable wrote:
you must tape horseshoes to your balls to run that good |
superglue works better |
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nomanirvana United States. Jan 07 2008 21:56. Posts 2523 | | |
Seems like your aggression and went to showdown % are unusually high. Definitely running hot as hell. |
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