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Daut    United States. Mar 21 2015 18:16. Posts 8842
Despite success in season long football leagues for the past few years, I was pretty unsuccessful playing DFS. I would deposit a few hundred bucks at the beginning of football, swing up and down a bit, and eventually lose it by the end of the year. I tried out basketball last season, but I knew basically nothing and lost some more money.

Roothlus (the poker player) convinced me that I should give NBA DFS another shot this season. It's more fun, predictable and beatable than other sports. For instance, if Lebron scores 20 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds thats a pretty bad fantasy game while 30 points, 7 assists and 7 rebounds is a great game. the variance in game to game results is much smaller than other sports like football or baseball.

So at the beginning of the season I threw another $250 on both fanduel and draftkings with the intention of treating it just like poker when i started. I was essentially starting as a .05/.1 NL player and trying to work my way up without ever shooting my roll and using safe BRM.

It turns out DFS is just like poker. You play other people in a variety of cash games and tournaments and the site makes money off rake. The most common cash games are 50/50s (half the field cashes for 1.8x) and HUs (1 on 1 with another player). And tournaments work the same way as in poker, with 10-25% of the field receiving money with top heavy prizepools.

I tried to never put >20% of my roll into play on any given day and split my action between a few lineups to reduce variance. Fanduel went great right from the start. I was winning in cash games and I got 2nd place in a tournament for $1500 early on which allowed me to start playing a bit bigger. Draftkings...not so much. Basically lost every day there until my $250 deposit was gone. I didnt care too much because I could get all the action I wanted on fanduel and i was doing well over there.

Since that initial tournament cash, I have not cashed in another tournament for more than $700. Despite this lack of big scores, I have run up my roll on fanduel despite still not really being an expert on basketball. After the all star break, I redeposited $500 to DK and have run it up there, and started playing on victiv and am winning there.

Fanduel results since early november, provided by a really cool tracking site similar to PT and HEM built by liquidpoker's Panorama:


if you notice, I made a lot of my money in very low buyin 50/50s. its very easy to enter a lineup you like into tons of contests and just let it go to work.


Graph:


The tracking site is a little buggy for draftkings, but i've deposited $750 this season and have my roll up to $4k, and on victiv ive run a $1k deposit up to about $3k in the past week. So overall, including some bonuses and FPPs im up about 26k this season, all started from $500. I've basically grinded up from micros to midstakes in 4 months without any prior knowledge of NBA.


tips if you want to start playing:
-trust your projections. if your optimal lineup is 290 points, and a lineup you personally like better with players you trust more is projected at 275, throw it in the trash. It's ok to audible a pick over machine projections occasionally, but make sure your lineup is as close to the optimal projections as possible. In general I dont like to give up more than 1% in points for lineups i like. Those points add up over the season and they are where you get your edge.

-use good BRM and start smaller. most poker players who come into DFS just shoot it like they are playing the same stakes in poker/DFS, yet their DFS skill is much lower than their poker skill to start.

-play lots of smaller buyins. It's better to enter your 1 lineup into 100 $1 cash games than to enter it into two $50 cash games. players get better at higher stakes and the only downside to playing more lower stakes games is the time it takes to register them.

-a lot of edge in NBA is due to injuries. its a long season and rough sport, there are often tons of late scratches and random rest days. if a starting player goes down, and his cheap backup is slated to get 30+ minutes, he will often do well. minutes = money. stay on top of the injury news, know the depth charts/rotations, and who to plug in when starters miss a game.

-treat it like a job. i work all day on registering, tinkering with lineups, reading injury reports, figuring out where the projections may be off and which players i should trust/not trust, etc. it's a lot of work, but its not quite as intense as poker. from 9am to 2pm I basically spend 5-10 minutes out of every 30 minutes checking news, registering for more contests, tweaking lineups and the rest of the the time i am free to do other things like run errands, walk my dog, beat off, take a shower, whatever. then from 2-4 i am working really hard on lineups since lineup lock happens at 4pm PST, and then from 4-6pm i check if there are any changes i need to make for the sites (draftkings only for me) that allow changes to be made after the first games started. i dont really even have to watch the games but i do because basketball is a fun, high paced game with the most athletic people in the world.


if you want to sign up i suggest playing mostly on fanduel and draftkings. by far the biggest sites with the most players and largest contests offered.



theres a month left in the NBA season, and probably a 1-2 playable weeks of playoffs after that. i will be working hard for that time, and theres still time for everyone else to play too. and if NBA isnt your thing, baseball is starting soon, and there's also NHL, MMA, golf, soccer, and college sports. something for just about everyone.

good luck to anyone who plays and anyone who decides to give it a shot.

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NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 25/03/2015 16:56

Bobosaur   Canada. Mar 21 2015 19:00. Posts 30

Lol epic stuff. I was considering playin around on fanduel a few months ago too, but ultimately decided against it because I didn't know anything about sports, maybe I'll go check it out.


tooker   . Mar 21 2015 19:11. Posts 470

Any chance you would be willing to go into how you get your projections?


RaiNKhAN    United States. Mar 21 2015 20:15. Posts 4080

DFS basically fits Daut in every possible way, shape, and form.

The biggest Rockets, Sixers, and Grizzlies fan you will ever meet! 

Smuft   Canada. Mar 21 2015 20:18. Posts 622

been hearing a lot about this recently and wanting to know how it works so TY for a look into the DFS world and VN results

how big do the stakes get up to?

how much rake is there?

thoughts on mid/longterm outlook of DFS industry?




PuertoRican   United States. Mar 21 2015 20:24. Posts 11178

I play on DraftKings for the MMA and NHL events. I've been busy lately, so I haven't had much time to devote to hockey, thus no NHL DraftKings events. I play the MMA events on DraftKings every week. No big scores yet.

Rekrul is a newb 

traxamillion   United States. Mar 21 2015 21:14. Posts 10368

Interesting

Seems like too much value not to get into especially since I'm already betting sports.

Is there much edge at the top, how would you quantify it?

What do you think of MLB? I'd start there just cause it's the next season but baseball seems like it would have the least possible edge with huge variance.


Daut    United States. Mar 21 2015 21:31. Posts 8842

-stakes get pretty large. there are 10k HUs on draftkings, but they rarely run. The former top guy, condia, got mauled by an ok but not great high stakes player at them, and besides that im not sure theyve ever run otherwise. between the three sites i try to get about 4k of action in a day at this point. it sounds like a lot on a 28k roll, but its split between a few lineups on each site and try to get a decent amount of HU so its not too much variance. my buddy who i work with on lineups every day sometimes can get 40k in action a day.

-the rake is big and a real problem. on fanduel/draftkings at lowstakes, its essentially 9+1, 22.5+2.5, etc. 11.11% is large and tough to overcome. it gets better at high stakes, but not enough to overcome edges between regs, so the lobby is sort of bumhunter ish like in poker. hopefully the sites lower rake, particularly at high stakes, cause even 250+20 is tough to beat a good player who you should have an edge on.

-longterm outlook of DFS is strong. the industry is still growing at a somewhat exponential rate, but that wont last forever. i think next football season will be a few times larger than this past one. the real problem is that the edges between strong players should be very small and there is little incentive to play each other in HUs.

-MLB seems fun. i have never played a baseball contest but im sure ill dabble in it this season. i was a diehard baseball fan growing up, but have watched close to 0 since about 2003 so there will definitely be a learning curve for me. i think the edges are reasonable in it, but yes huge variance due to star players going 0/4 with 3 Ks sometimes.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

RaiNKhAN    United States. Mar 21 2015 21:57. Posts 4080

^

If they fix the rake or give out some strong VIP bonuses like stars had then I think DFS would be very beatable for a large amount of people. but as it stands that rake is just plain robbery, way worse than in all formats of poker

I talked to a friend and they are considering reducing the rake or something along those lines so if and when that happens I'll definitely get back into DFS

The biggest Rockets, Sixers, and Grizzlies fan you will ever meet! 

TimDawg    United States. Mar 21 2015 21:58. Posts 10170

I deposited 1k on FD basically doing the complete opposite of you - no research, checking injuries, BRM, ect (just pure gambol). I just busted my roll playing vs you in a $1 HU match lol. I did mostly NFL and would play the huge field/high payouts pretty much exclusively.

You have inspired me to give it another go though. I find it pretty amazing you knew essentially nothing about the NBA before diving into this and have had such good results. What are the main sites you look at for research/injury news/ect?

online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball 

Roman    United States. Mar 22 2015 08:29. Posts 590

I have a friend who wrote a script for automatically entering line ups, makes life much easier. you can shoot me a msg on skype if you want it.


[GiTM]-Ace   United States. Mar 24 2015 02:32. Posts 1566

wow thats sick. Friend of mine has been trying to get me to sign up forever. Guess I'm gonna give it a try now :D

[GiTM]- GoSu in the Making 

PanoRaMa   United States. Mar 24 2015 05:53. Posts 1655

Thanks for the shoutout Grats on the results

http://panorama.liquidpoker.net 

[GiTM]-Ace   United States. Mar 24 2015 09:06. Posts 1566

im also curious where u get ur news updates and shit. guessing espn?

[GiTM]- GoSu in the Making 

bigredhoss   Cook Islands. Mar 24 2015 14:56. Posts 8627

thanks for the write-up

is there a PTR equivalent for DFS? if not, any idea what the biggest winners make per year?

Truck-Crash Life 

PanoRaMa   United States. Mar 24 2015 18:32. Posts 1655


  On March 24 2015 13:56 bigredhoss wrote:
thanks for the write-up

is there a PTR equivalent for DFS? if not, any idea what the biggest winners make per year?



My next project

http://panorama.liquidpoker.net 

bigredhoss   Cook Islands. Mar 25 2015 13:55. Posts 8627

nice, i guess that's the site daut was referring to in op. even if it's not finished, any chance you could pm me the link or post it here?

Truck-Crash LifeLast edit: 25/03/2015 14:02

Rush   United States. Mar 26 2015 01:03. Posts 2299

I'd like the link or a PM with that information too if possible! Thanks.

Do you even know what DK stands for? 

[GiTM]-Ace   United States. Mar 26 2015 01:18. Posts 1566

Same!

Edit - Also question. When you play majority 50/50's do you field the same lineup in each? Same for HU i guess. I'm assuming in tourneys you would do multi entry and try a couple diff lineups

[GiTM]- GoSu in the MakingLast edit: 26/03/2015 03:51

SpasticInk   Sweden. Apr 01 2015 19:51. Posts 6276

Which is the best site for european football


 
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