So this is oddly addicting to me. A cool matrix of tones that you can play around with and create repeating sequences of sounds. Would be cool if it had a record function to make little songs.
The Office of Registered Organizations has received a completed application for Illini Poker Club to become a registered organization at the University of Illinois.
Congratulations! The application has been reviewed and Illini Poker Club is now a registered organization.
As the authorized agent, it is your responsibility to work closely with the Director of Registered Organizations to ensure Illini Poker Club is in compliance with the University's Student Code. To learn more about your responsibilities as an authorized agent, please visit the Office of Registered Organizations webpage, {http://www.union.uiuc.edu/involvement/rso/Default.aspx}.
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I started a poker club here at UIUC. You would think that when people like Barry Greenstein and Taylor Caby graduate from here, it would have already been made, right?
Anyways, the main objective is to teach people how to play poker and have discussions (lolz liquidpoker). I'll definitely have critics since I'm not so narrow minded to think I'm anywhere close to being the best player on campus; but I believe I'm qualified to teach new players basic concepts. In the beginning of next semester, I'm going to ask you guys for help on running this thing, so expect a few threads in the Main Poker section in a month or so.
Sooooooo... with about 50,000 students, and thousands of people walking through the quad during Quad Day (where all the clubs are advertised in the quad)...
Ok, so I am doing really well this month so far pokerwise. I am playing a lot, trying to play 40k hands this month and I'm just slightly behind pace on that, nothing a good solid weekend won't fix though. Apart from that I been talking a whole shitload of poker with Royalsu and KillThemDonks from LP.net and it's progressing my game a lot.
Now thx to their help I found out my fundamentals are reasonably solid but I got one big problem... I am way too nitty and miss a crapload of value in certain spots which obviously is a very bad thing. So the only thing I was really wondering, has anyone experienced problems and if so, how did you help it ?? Did you really put small notes on your screen ?? Maybe played some drunken poker one time and that made you realise that people call/bet and raise a lot lighter because you were doing it while being intoxicated ??
Anyways, all the pointers are appreciated and I guess I'll post some monthly wrap-up after this month, never done something like that before.
I've decided to write a regular blog about one of my greatest passions in life, fantasy baseball. Fantasy baseball and poker share quite a few things in common; both are games of skill that incorporate a high degree of luck over the short term. And both games reward players with a greater understanding of the game with an edge or +EV over the competition. While I will certainly decrease my edge significantly in the LP fantasy league by writing this column, the LP league has never been about the money for me, and the spirit of this community has always been to share our knowledge with others on the forum. And so, here I go...
At the core of fantasy baseball is player forecasting. What rookie is going to have a breakout year? What established veteran will have a dissapointing season? Fantasy baseball also incorporates many elements of economics, how much to invest and in what categories. But at the heart of it all is who can better predict the future performance of major league baseball players. I'd compare fantasy football to a hyper turbo tourney where luck plays a huge factor and there isn't that much room to outplay your opponent. Fantasy baseball, much like a deep stacked tourney, affords many opportunities for skilled players to gain an edge on their opponents.
There are many poker fish that are unaware of the deep complexities of the game and believe that they are +EV just because they know the hand values, play an occasional home game and watch WSOP on TV. So too in fantasy baseball, many people are unaware of the deeper complexities of the game and believe that they are +EV because they played little league and watch their favorite home team on TV every night. Both poker and baseball have mainstream TV commentators that spew ignorant analysis that further misleads the general public. There are no opportunities to make money in a game like chess or go because the fish will recognize the -EV of their situation and refuse to give action. But both poker and fantasy baseball benefit from the misdirection of information given by traditional media outlets.
Most casual fantasy baseball players will make decisions based on the small sample size of games that they have seen on TV or by looking at general stats. But the fact is that accurate player forecasting is both an art and science. Traditional stats that are seen in the boxscore such as batting average and ERA are in fact very poor indicators of a player's skill and it includes a lot of "noise" or external factors outside the control of the player. Let me illustrate my point by focusing on two pitching lines.
Player 1 - 15 wins, 12 losses, 4.40 ERA
Player 2 - 18 wins, 3 losses, 2.90 ERA
Looking at the above statistics, almost every person familiar with baseball would say that player 2 is far superior to player 1. Player 2 has stats that would seem in line with a Cy Young winner while player 1 would barely be considered league average. Well, those 2 stat lines were produced by the same player, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Player one is his 2007 season and player 2 is his 2008 season. And believe it or not, I will confidently say that Matsuzaka was a much superior pitcher in 2007 than in 2008. How can it be that a 4.40 ERA is better than a 2.90 ERA? To answer that question, we need to further analzye what makes a superior pitcher and what factors go into an ERA.
Voros McCracken
A baseball fan by the name of Voros McCracken made an important discovery in 1999 that allows us to better understand the game of baseball.
"McCracken's findings implied that major league pitchers had relatively little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them. Specifically, McCracken found that the percentage of balls put into play against a particular pitcher that fell for hits did not correlate well across seasons. This implied that elements beyond the pitcher's control, including his defense, ballpark effects, the weather, and most importantly, randomness, had significant effects upon his performance. This theory flew in the face of conventional wisdom, but has been confirmed (at least in its simplest form) by many researchers."
So if a pitcher has little control over the outcome of balls put into play, what do they have control over and what defines a consistently outstanding pitcher against a mediocre pitcher? A pitcher has almost total control over the outcome of balls that are NOT put into play, strikeouts and walks. A pitcher also has some control over the number of HR's they give up which are balls the defense has no chance at fielding. Research has shown that approximately 30% of all balls hit in play (non strikeouts, walks, HRs) go for hits and while certain hitters have been able to increase their rate due to power or speed, there is no evidence that pitchers have any control over this rate. That means that it doesn't matter if it's Johan Santana or Kris Benson pitching, as long as the ball is hit into play, it has a roughly 30% chance of going for a hit.
We can compare this to EV graphs in poker. If a pitcher has a hit rate of 35%, then he's running really shitty and losing his coinflips. If a pitcher has a hit rate of 25%, then he's running in godmode and winning his flips.
There is another important element of luck for a pitcher and that is his strand rate. Let's say a pitcher gave up 2 walks, 1 hit and struck out 12 in 9 innings. But he happened to walk 2 right before the one hit which happened to be a home run for a total of 3 earned runs. Another pitcher gives up 7 hits and 3 walks and 0 strikeouts in 3 innings. But he happened to end every inning with the bases loaded and gave up only 1 run. Both pitchers have an ERA of exactly 3.00 but the first pitcher had a strand rate of 0%, meaning all 3 runners reaching base scored. The second pitcher had a strand rate of 90% meaning only 1 out of 10 baserunners scored.
Hit rate and strand rate are two very important elements that are random and largely out of the control of the pitcher. But these two elements have a huge impact on ERA. Therefore, judging a pitcher by ERA is a flawed methodology. A better way to evaluate pitchers is to remove the luck based elements and focus on areas that they have control over, which are control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb).
Let's go back and take a look at Dice-K's 2007 and 2008 seasons but include the relevant numbers:
IP W L S ERA WHIP H% S% CTL DOM CMD XERA
2007 204.7 15 12 0 4.40 1.32 31 70 3.5 8.8 2.5 4.32
2008 167.7 18 3 0 2.90 1.32 27 80 5.0 8.3 1.6 4.82
In 2007, Dice-K allowed fewer walks per 9 innings pitched (3.5 vs 5 in 08) and struck out more batters (8.8 vs 8.3). However more of the balls hit in play went for hits (31% vs 27%) and fewer baserunners were stranded (70% vs 80%). xERA is the expected ERA for a pitcher based on elements within their control (CTL, DOM, CMD) and assuming standard luck in H% and S%. In 2007, his xERA was 4.32, slightly lower than his actual ERA of 4.40. However, in 2008, depite his actual ERA of 2.90, his xERA was 4.82, nearly two runs a game higher. Dice-K in 2008 was the equivalent of a losing player running in god mode, winning every flip and running at 8bb and his 18 wins, 2.90 ERA masked his subpar skills.
For pitchers, one should avoid placing too much weight on stats such as ERA and wins which are highly dependent on luck and can vary greatly from year to year. Rather, focus on skills which a pitcher has control over.
Command Ratio as a Leading Indicator
The ability to get the ball over the plate — command of the strike zone — is one of the best leading indicators for future performance. Command ratio (K/BB) can be used to project potential in ERA as well as other skills gauges.
Research indicates that there is a high correlation between a pitcher’s Cmd ratio and his ERA.
Earned Run Average
Command 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0.0 - 1.0 6.05 5.85 6.24 6.22 6.42
1.1 - 1.5 4.79 5.05 5.16 4.93 5.06
1.6 - 2.0 4.59 4.51 4.63 4.41 4.65
2.1 - 2.5 3.98 4.22 4.30 4.28 4.48
2.6 - 3.0 3.60 3.80 3.80 3.60 4.15
3.1 and over 3.15 3.30 3.30 3.45 3.49
We can create percentage plays for the different levels:
For Cmd Pct who post
Levels of 3.50- 4.50+
0.0 - 1.0 0% 87%
1.1 - 1.5 7% 67%
1.6 - 2.0 7% 57%
2.1 - 2.5 19% 35%
2.6 - 3.0 26% 25%
3.1 + 53% 5%
Rather than chasing last years 20 game winners, I target starting pitchers with command ratios over 3. Zack Greinke had a command ratio last year of 3.3 and if he can replicate that metric, which by the way has little to no luck involved, the numbers tell me that he has a 53% chance of getting an ERA under 3.50 and only a 5% chance of an ERA over 4.50. Those are excellent odds from a 16th round draft pick. Zack Greinke may have a terrible year or could get injured. But just like in poker, the best that you can do is to get it in as a favorite and the rest is left up to chance.
A little recap before we begin. I started on February 15th with $0 on pokerstars and only 1000 play chips. I've moved up through the cash game levels pretty quickly with the help of a few final tables in MTT's and I am currently a nl50 regular with a BR of $1,500 on Full Tilt. I might be interested in moving some of this to pokerstars but that is going to be a problem.
Problem 1:
My account was banned on Pokerstars for having 2 accounts. I wasn't playing on both of them at the same time or anything. So I'm thinking I can just create a new account with a fake name and trade my money back to FTP when I want to cash out. Does this sound like a good idea or not? and how does Pokerstars check to see if someone is multi accounting. Do I need to make the account from a different computer? and will they notice if I play a lot from the IP address that my accounts were banned on.
My goal is still to reach $10,000 by the end of this year. I'm a lot better than pretty much any other player at nl50 on Full Tilt and I will be moving up when I reach $2,500.
Problem 2:
I want to buy HEM but I don't have a paypal account or anything. I was wondering if anyone would want to split it with me and I could send them money on FTP since the license works for 2 computers. PM me or reply if you are interested.
I watched a few more movies recently that I will give my opinions on.
If you liked Snatch you will like this movie. Colin Ferrell has a really good performance. He is hilarious and very believable in the role he plays, which is a pretty hard role to believe. Not too familiar with the other actor other than that he was in Gangs of New York. He had a decent performance as well. Without giving anything away, the movie is about 2 hitmen who travel to Bruges to flee from a job they completed prior to the start of the movie. They wait at a hotel from instructions from their boss. When the instructions arrive the movie really takes a twist and is wrapped up perfectly at the end. 8.5/10
When this movie beat out the Dark Knight(I know it wasnt nominated) for best picture I was kind of upset. Then I watched the movie and I understood why. From start to finish this movie was pretty much perfect. The music throughout the movie also added to the experience. The movie is about a poor Indian kid(I'd say he's about 20 years old), who gets on the show who wants to be a millionare. At the time the show is the most popular show in all of India. Its his chance to escape from the slums he grew up in and reunite with a girl he has loved since he was 5 years old. 10/10
Hope you like the reviews and opinions and if anyone wants to reply with their MSN or AIM sn we can talk about hands and try to improve each other.
Oh poker gods of yonder, for what reason must I suffer thine wrath?
I either run way worse than most people or I suck at poker, cause I swear I run bad much more often than I run good. I usually go about 1 month of downswing and then 1 week of upswing. So that means the vast majority of the time I'm playing poker I'm being coolered, sucked out on, set up, and generally shit upon. It can make this game very very NOT fun.
Since I've posted so I thought I'd just write a few key things that have happened in my life:
I have a french speaking guy from Switzerland staying with my family for 6 months:
Brag: He's my age and plays computer games
Beat: He plays WoW..
Started playing a bit of poker again since University has started because as usual I didn't play a lot during holidays when I actually had some free time.... I don't get it either..
Brag: A lot of people still suck
Beat: I am one of the people who suck
Realized that maybe drinking too much too often may have started to have a negative affect since I now black out randomly when I get too drunk...
Brag: That I consume alcohol??
Beat: Health concerns.. fuck.. I hope theres medicine I can take.
The other night me and a mate watched all of season 5 'Beauty and the geek'...
First of all I'd say about 4 of the so called 'Geeks' were so full of shit not geeks.. I mean one of them was this guy:
Get fucked, what kind of geek is that tank.. and the another's only geeky attribute was that he wore a lot of sweater vests was 6 ft 6 and quite athletic...
Anyway after watching all 10 episodes I was quite enamored by 'Leticia Cline' who I thought while watching the show was adorable:
and then I when I was reading through the wiki about the show realised she's actually a legit model, been on tv and has nude photos on the net ...and I can just see everyone who's reading this googling her at this moment ..perverts haha
Also Jillian Beyor was on the show ... anyway the point is that the 'professional' photos of them while they definitely look hot aren't as attractive as they were when they were just fooling around on some television show ...
Anyway fuck the rambling and if you've read or scrolled down to this point here's a little something to watch:
Showdown sterni888: shows (a full house, Jacks full of Tens)
DoC.LemOn: shows (a Royal Flush)
DoC.LemOn collected $4.68 from pot
evstein said, "gh"
Summary Total pot $4.88 | Rake $0.20
Board
Seat 2: evstein folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 3: acardisborn folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 4: Goldensv (button) folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 5: sterni888 (small blind) showed and lost with a full house, Jacks full of Tens
Seat 6: DoC.LemOn (big blind) showed and won ($4.68) with a Royal Flush
ontilt4life: checks
dmo1413: checks
genjix: bets $20
ontilt4life: raises $15.75 to $35.75 and is all-in
dmo1413: calls $35.75
genjix: calls $15.75
River (Pot : $134.10)
dmo1413: checks
genjix: bets $0.65 and is all-in
dmo1413: calls $0.65
Showdown genjix: shows (a full house, Sixes full of Fours)
dmo1413: mucks hand
genjix collected $1.30 from side pot
ontilt4life: mucks hand
dmo1413 said, "are u kidding with that flop"
genjix collected $131.10 from main pot
dmo1413 said, "like seriously buddy"
Summary Total pot $135.40 Main pot $131.10. Side pot $1.30. | Rake $3
Board
Seat 1: goldfarbjr folded before Flop
Seat 2: Itrch folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 3: ontilt4life mucked
Seat 4: dmo1413 mucked
Seat 5: Dice Dropped folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 6: genjix (button) showed and won ($132.40) with a full house, Sixes full of Fours
Seat 7: RooDooDoo (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: yipyapsap (big blind) folded before Flop
Dealer: genjix has a full house, Sixes full of Fours
Dealer: Game #27071789889: genjix wins side pot ($1.30) with a full house, Sixes full of Fours
dmo1413: are u kidding with that flop
Dealer: Game #27071789889: genjix wins main pot ($131.10) with a full house, Sixes full of Fours
dmo1413: like seriously buddy
goldfarbjr: take down those blinds, SHIP IT!
Dealer: Game #27071823424: dmo1413 wins pot ($0.60)
Dealer: Game #27071835180: yipyapsap wins pot ($0.60)
dmo1413: genjix is horrible he just sits around and waits till he hits trips
In lieu of me starting this new challenge, I am debating whether or not to play on FTP or Stars. Here is my current opinions on each site.
FTP:
- Rakeback, ldo. Its definitely nice (also ftp points with the multiplier are a nice little addition as well, maybe not though?)
- Interface is somewhat enjoyable, then again im used to it.
- One problem I have is that the only mtts im currently rolled for are the $26s
- The games are definitely not bad, nor do I expect any games 1/2 and below to be terribly difficult.
- I dont play consistently enough every much to make ironman, which is sad. I will go for days without playing, then drop 5k+ hands in a day. That being said, I am not able to take advantage of their ironman program
- ftp cashouts take 10-15, maybe even longer, which is not convenient at all.
Stars:
- Not too familiar with the VIP program. I am curious how you non supernova guys use your FPPs. I have heard people use them for the 5400 Sunday Mil sats, is that still the best value for those of us not bringing in tens of thousands of fpps a month? Are they still as soft as they were a year or so ago? I do like that I dont have to play nearly every day like I do on ftp to reach their vip tiers. Thus, allowing me the opportunity to play in their monthly/weekly freerolls.
- I really like the new innovations stars has added to their interface, much more comparable to ftp now.
- Stars has many different mtts I can play daily that are within my 100 buyin rule.
- Stars cashouts are pretty quick when I am cashing out sums > 1k. usually get the check within 5-7 days tops
After typing those pro's and cons, I am leaning more towards stars. The only things I am not entirely certain of is whether or not the games are much more difficult than ftp, and whether or not ftps rakeback is far more valuable than pokerstars' vip program. Fwiw, if I did switch to stars, I would certainly aim for supernova by the end of the year.
Whats you guys' thoughts?
I could possibly divide my roll between the 2 sites, leaving me with ~25 buyins on each site for $50nl. You think itd be worth doing that for game selection purposes at 1/2 and lower?
Why don't you comment on hands?by Sicks Macks, April 14
Except for high stakes hands, or I'd say half of hands asking a direct question, why don't you comment on hands to the right? Post your reasons, or tell me what type of hands you do post on. I'm curious, because that's one of my favorite parts of lp, and I feel like only 2 or 3 people post on hands that aren't their own regularly.
so i havent played poker for a few days, maybe a few hundred hands here and there, but i've generally been taking a break since last week's brutal mind rape on me. been playing some SC, which was cool.
going to watch some vids and then get back on the tables tommorow or something wish me a lot of luck.
First month unemployed so playing poker as a job until i can find something. Need to make at least 1250 to pay rent and my credit card. hoping to make closer to 2k so i can take shots at .5/1 next month.
also had a goal to play 100k hands this month, lol that ain't happening. still gonna try to hit 50k. hopefully can keep up a 5bb/100 rate.
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..perverts haha
(a full house, Jacks full of Tens)
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