Beat is how much I have to pay in taxes, and April has been such a roffle month already I'm fucking around with the little money I do have on FTP.
Variance is that girl's boyfriend is moving in with her at the end of the month.
ALSO I FUCKING HATE TAXES
p.s. I'm pretty hungover I got a bottle of Belvedere and pretty much drank the entire 750 last night. Probably 2 shots left in it. I should drink more water before I go to bed but w/e :[
Who gave me $5? // Fellow noob wantedby Fudyann, April 15
It's a principle of mine never to invest any of my hard-earned money in gambling, unless I won it in gambling. The only way I can allow myself to play poker is to win my entire bankroll in poker.
So, some time ago I was here asking about the best way to win freerolls. I was asking advice about freeroll hands, and I even asked advice about some play money hands, too. I guess somebody must've felt sorry for me, because one day I woke up with $5 in my account. I wish I knew who it was so I can ship that person $10 back when I can miss it.
Anyway, if you're still around here and wondering what happened: my original $5 is now $11, after 2.5k hands. I'm running 25/20 fullring at nl02, playing between 1 to 3 tables.
Have I calculated my winrate correctly if I say it's 12bb/100hands? Is that decent for nl02?
Is 2.5k hands enough of a sample to have some confidence that I will continue to be a winning player?
My swings are huge. After some sessions I am down the incredible sum of $2! It actually amuses me that I can get so worked up over $2, but $2 is 20% of my current bankroll, so it's a little scary. I'm very scared to go broke, as that would mean I'm back to grinding freerolls.
I'm half-stacking to reduce my variance, I don't know if it helps. It feels better to think I have 11 buyins rather than 5.5.
Guessing my standard deviation at 70 bb / 100 and using the formula from liquidpoker's bankroll article, I came up with a risk of ruin of 7%. Very scary.
Here's the formulate from the article
r = exp(-2wB/sigma²)
where
B = bankroll
r = risk of ruin
sigma = standard deviation (in some units)
w = winrate (in the same units as standard deviation)
My bankroll is 550 bb
My winrate is 12bb / 100
My standard deviation is 70 bb / 100
exp(-2*12*550/70^2) = 0.07~
Hopefully if I get a little lucky now, I can get into safer and safer territory.
When I reach 10k hands and my bankroll hopefully at $30 or so, I intend to start buying in for 100bb at 6max. I'll have 15 buyins (still at nl02).
Good idea or should I look at SNGs or tournaments too?
I'm also looking for a fellow noob that I can exchange hand histories with. There's probably something useful we can teach eachother by reviewing hand histories. Or if you're not a noob, feel free to review my hand histories anyway
Learned a tonne about poker and looking back at my old whiney blog posts i cry inside.
Long story short back to grinding online..taken 500$ BR to > 1800$ in a little less than a month grinding 11$ turbos (about 250ish or so i think) and 50NL FR (9-12 tabling).
short term: 2k (not incl rb) by end of april
mid term: comfortably back in 100nl by mid may
long term: need to somehow scrape enough RB monies to finance some live poker degeneration. need about 1200$ CDN.
run goot one time prz
dont come after my blinds and cbets if u play on ftp plz D:
Hey, this is Taylor. Would you mind sending me an email to xxxx@xxxx.com? I'd be glad to come hang out at the club. Actually, there was some sort of "unofficial" U of I poker club (at the time I thought it was real though but apparently it wasn't) where people met and played 10nl. I went a few times in 2002/2003 during my freshman year.
my journey to purchasing a large cylindrical apparatus is starting well.
This IS the nit chronicles, so starting at nl10, i just nitted it up like a devout catholic, while releasing my pent up dragon rage at specific times to burn those unsuspecting pedestrians. haha, shit birds
beware my flaming breath.
I shall commence raping the masses on nl25 tomorrow. I just may. I may do it tonight. I may not. who fucking knows. jesus knows. jesus knows all. jesus is my homeboy
I may post some nudey's of myself in the next blog. if I'm happy with my results at this game of clicking.
bye bye for now my fellow internet browsing specimens.
Ahhh! I went and blew a ton of cash again. I will now be on a strict party budget for the rest of the month lol. I definitely can't risk spending so much when my roll is in an inbetween stage and I could easily go into a downswing.
Fuckin vegas! Last night was a lot of fun, atleast.
So this is oddly addicting to me. A cool matrix of tones that you can play around with and create repeating sequences of sounds. Would be cool if it had a record function to make little songs.
The Office of Registered Organizations has received a completed application for Illini Poker Club to become a registered organization at the University of Illinois.
Congratulations! The application has been reviewed and Illini Poker Club is now a registered organization.
As the authorized agent, it is your responsibility to work closely with the Director of Registered Organizations to ensure Illini Poker Club is in compliance with the University's Student Code. To learn more about your responsibilities as an authorized agent, please visit the Office of Registered Organizations webpage, {http://www.union.uiuc.edu/involvement/rso/Default.aspx}.
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I started a poker club here at UIUC. You would think that when people like Barry Greenstein and Taylor Caby graduate from here, it would have already been made, right?
Anyways, the main objective is to teach people how to play poker and have discussions (lolz liquidpoker). I'll definitely have critics since I'm not so narrow minded to think I'm anywhere close to being the best player on campus; but I believe I'm qualified to teach new players basic concepts. In the beginning of next semester, I'm going to ask you guys for help on running this thing, so expect a few threads in the Main Poker section in a month or so.
Sooooooo... with about 50,000 students, and thousands of people walking through the quad during Quad Day (where all the clubs are advertised in the quad)...
Ok, so I am doing really well this month so far pokerwise. I am playing a lot, trying to play 40k hands this month and I'm just slightly behind pace on that, nothing a good solid weekend won't fix though. Apart from that I been talking a whole shitload of poker with Royalsu and KillThemDonks from LP.net and it's progressing my game a lot.
Now thx to their help I found out my fundamentals are reasonably solid but I got one big problem... I am way too nitty and miss a crapload of value in certain spots which obviously is a very bad thing. So the only thing I was really wondering, has anyone experienced problems and if so, how did you help it ?? Did you really put small notes on your screen ?? Maybe played some drunken poker one time and that made you realise that people call/bet and raise a lot lighter because you were doing it while being intoxicated ??
Anyways, all the pointers are appreciated and I guess I'll post some monthly wrap-up after this month, never done something like that before.
I've decided to write a regular blog about one of my greatest passions in life, fantasy baseball. Fantasy baseball and poker share quite a few things in common; both are games of skill that incorporate a high degree of luck over the short term. And both games reward players with a greater understanding of the game with an edge or +EV over the competition. While I will certainly decrease my edge significantly in the LP fantasy league by writing this column, the LP league has never been about the money for me, and the spirit of this community has always been to share our knowledge with others on the forum. And so, here I go...
At the core of fantasy baseball is player forecasting. What rookie is going to have a breakout year? What established veteran will have a dissapointing season? Fantasy baseball also incorporates many elements of economics, how much to invest and in what categories. But at the heart of it all is who can better predict the future performance of major league baseball players. I'd compare fantasy football to a hyper turbo tourney where luck plays a huge factor and there isn't that much room to outplay your opponent. Fantasy baseball, much like a deep stacked tourney, affords many opportunities for skilled players to gain an edge on their opponents.
There are many poker fish that are unaware of the deep complexities of the game and believe that they are +EV just because they know the hand values, play an occasional home game and watch WSOP on TV. So too in fantasy baseball, many people are unaware of the deeper complexities of the game and believe that they are +EV because they played little league and watch their favorite home team on TV every night. Both poker and baseball have mainstream TV commentators that spew ignorant analysis that further misleads the general public. There are no opportunities to make money in a game like chess or go because the fish will recognize the -EV of their situation and refuse to give action. But both poker and fantasy baseball benefit from the misdirection of information given by traditional media outlets.
Most casual fantasy baseball players will make decisions based on the small sample size of games that they have seen on TV or by looking at general stats. But the fact is that accurate player forecasting is both an art and science. Traditional stats that are seen in the boxscore such as batting average and ERA are in fact very poor indicators of a player's skill and it includes a lot of "noise" or external factors outside the control of the player. Let me illustrate my point by focusing on two pitching lines.
Player 1 - 15 wins, 12 losses, 4.40 ERA
Player 2 - 18 wins, 3 losses, 2.90 ERA
Looking at the above statistics, almost every person familiar with baseball would say that player 2 is far superior to player 1. Player 2 has stats that would seem in line with a Cy Young winner while player 1 would barely be considered league average. Well, those 2 stat lines were produced by the same player, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Player one is his 2007 season and player 2 is his 2008 season. And believe it or not, I will confidently say that Matsuzaka was a much superior pitcher in 2007 than in 2008. How can it be that a 4.40 ERA is better than a 2.90 ERA? To answer that question, we need to further analzye what makes a superior pitcher and what factors go into an ERA.
Voros McCracken
A baseball fan by the name of Voros McCracken made an important discovery in 1999 that allows us to better understand the game of baseball.
"McCracken's findings implied that major league pitchers had relatively little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them. Specifically, McCracken found that the percentage of balls put into play against a particular pitcher that fell for hits did not correlate well across seasons. This implied that elements beyond the pitcher's control, including his defense, ballpark effects, the weather, and most importantly, randomness, had significant effects upon his performance. This theory flew in the face of conventional wisdom, but has been confirmed (at least in its simplest form) by many researchers."
So if a pitcher has little control over the outcome of balls put into play, what do they have control over and what defines a consistently outstanding pitcher against a mediocre pitcher? A pitcher has almost total control over the outcome of balls that are NOT put into play, strikeouts and walks. A pitcher also has some control over the number of HR's they give up which are balls the defense has no chance at fielding. Research has shown that approximately 30% of all balls hit in play (non strikeouts, walks, HRs) go for hits and while certain hitters have been able to increase their rate due to power or speed, there is no evidence that pitchers have any control over this rate. That means that it doesn't matter if it's Johan Santana or Kris Benson pitching, as long as the ball is hit into play, it has a roughly 30% chance of going for a hit.
We can compare this to EV graphs in poker. If a pitcher has a hit rate of 35%, then he's running really shitty and losing his coinflips. If a pitcher has a hit rate of 25%, then he's running in godmode and winning his flips.
There is another important element of luck for a pitcher and that is his strand rate. Let's say a pitcher gave up 2 walks, 1 hit and struck out 12 in 9 innings. But he happened to walk 2 right before the one hit which happened to be a home run for a total of 3 earned runs. Another pitcher gives up 7 hits and 3 walks and 0 strikeouts in 3 innings. But he happened to end every inning with the bases loaded and gave up only 1 run. Both pitchers have an ERA of exactly 3.00 but the first pitcher had a strand rate of 0%, meaning all 3 runners reaching base scored. The second pitcher had a strand rate of 90% meaning only 1 out of 10 baserunners scored.
Hit rate and strand rate are two very important elements that are random and largely out of the control of the pitcher. But these two elements have a huge impact on ERA. Therefore, judging a pitcher by ERA is a flawed methodology. A better way to evaluate pitchers is to remove the luck based elements and focus on areas that they have control over, which are control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb).
Let's go back and take a look at Dice-K's 2007 and 2008 seasons but include the relevant numbers:
IP W L S ERA WHIP H% S% CTL DOM CMD XERA
2007 204.7 15 12 0 4.40 1.32 31 70 3.5 8.8 2.5 4.32
2008 167.7 18 3 0 2.90 1.32 27 80 5.0 8.3 1.6 4.82
In 2007, Dice-K allowed fewer walks per 9 innings pitched (3.5 vs 5 in 08) and struck out more batters (8.8 vs 8.3). However more of the balls hit in play went for hits (31% vs 27%) and fewer baserunners were stranded (70% vs 80%). xERA is the expected ERA for a pitcher based on elements within their control (CTL, DOM, CMD) and assuming standard luck in H% and S%. In 2007, his xERA was 4.32, slightly lower than his actual ERA of 4.40. However, in 2008, depite his actual ERA of 2.90, his xERA was 4.82, nearly two runs a game higher. Dice-K in 2008 was the equivalent of a losing player running in god mode, winning every flip and running at 8bb and his 18 wins, 2.90 ERA masked his subpar skills.
For pitchers, one should avoid placing too much weight on stats such as ERA and wins which are highly dependent on luck and can vary greatly from year to year. Rather, focus on skills which a pitcher has control over.
Command Ratio as a Leading Indicator
The ability to get the ball over the plate — command of the strike zone — is one of the best leading indicators for future performance. Command ratio (K/BB) can be used to project potential in ERA as well as other skills gauges.
Research indicates that there is a high correlation between a pitcher’s Cmd ratio and his ERA.
Earned Run Average
Command 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0.0 - 1.0 6.05 5.85 6.24 6.22 6.42
1.1 - 1.5 4.79 5.05 5.16 4.93 5.06
1.6 - 2.0 4.59 4.51 4.63 4.41 4.65
2.1 - 2.5 3.98 4.22 4.30 4.28 4.48
2.6 - 3.0 3.60 3.80 3.80 3.60 4.15
3.1 and over 3.15 3.30 3.30 3.45 3.49
We can create percentage plays for the different levels:
For Cmd Pct who post
Levels of 3.50- 4.50+
0.0 - 1.0 0% 87%
1.1 - 1.5 7% 67%
1.6 - 2.0 7% 57%
2.1 - 2.5 19% 35%
2.6 - 3.0 26% 25%
3.1 + 53% 5%
Rather than chasing last years 20 game winners, I target starting pitchers with command ratios over 3. Zack Greinke had a command ratio last year of 3.3 and if he can replicate that metric, which by the way has little to no luck involved, the numbers tell me that he has a 53% chance of getting an ERA under 3.50 and only a 5% chance of an ERA over 4.50. Those are excellent odds from a 16th round draft pick. Zack Greinke may have a terrible year or could get injured. But just like in poker, the best that you can do is to get it in as a favorite and the rest is left up to chance.
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