[Article] The Threat - Initiative and C-bettingby PanoRaMa, May 08
Another article, this is for the June edition of my Metagame column for Baller Magazine. Keep in mind my audience is mostly comprised of novice, live players. Once again thanks to Etter from TL for his proofreading and editing assistance.
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The Threat – Initiative and Continuation Betting
Over the past several years, poker at a competent level has developed into a consistently ag-gressive game. The mid stakes online games are comprised of incessant preflop raising, re-raising, con-tinuation betting, raising continuation bets – you get the idea. Most successful playing styles revolve around being more aggressive than passive. Aggression works – even blind, monkey aggression – be-cause it allows you to maintain the initiative in the hand. Initiative is an artificial privilege granted to the last player to put in a raise or a bet on the previous street, wherein most people who called out of position have the tendency to check to the bettor on the previous street. Initiative is artificial because there is no rule that says, “The player who only called preflop must check to the preflop raiser.” But before you dismiss the concept due to its artificiality, realize that most fundamental concepts of poker – hand strength and position – are just as artificial. If I have AA preflop and you have A-6 off-suit, there is no rule that says I must win the hand one way or another – I could make the worst hand postflop or be bluffed out. Likewise, having position over you doesn’t mean that I will always win the hand. The role that these concepts play in the grand scheme of poker is subjective. So while most players see a clear-cut need to understand hand strength and position, initiative forms the oft-ignored last leg of this essential trinity.
Consider that the chance to flop a pair is roughly 33%. Also, consider that when you have a hand like 7-6 suited, any pairs you flop will likely be middle or bottom pairs with bad kickers. Most players are familiar with this situation. They choose to call a late position preflop raise in the blinds with a speculative hand, and the flop either brings them absolutely nothing or a very weak pair on an intimidating flop. Not having any real options, they choose to check/fold against their opponent’s continuation bet. In this case, if we were the late position raiser, does it even matter what hand we have? If our opponent will be folding most of the times he doesn’t flop a pair or any decent draw, we might as well have 3-2 off-suit every single time they check/fold.
Of course, poker isn’t so black and white; there are other variables to consider, but the implied strength of having initiative, augmented with the power of position and/or a strong holding, makes for a combination that is very difficult to routinely outplay. Back to the 7-6 suited example: consider the option of re-raising instead. There are a few drawbacks to this play, but you’ve acquired the power of initiative for yourself when there wasn’t much going for your hand, as you were out of position with a speculative holding. The flop comes something you would normally have check/folded to, but because you have initiative, you elect
to continuation bet. With initiative, you force your opponent to make a hand, and when he doesn’t, the pot is all yours.
The influence of initiative is commonly used with great success through continuation betting. Like in the example above, it doesn’t matter if you’re out of position, in position, or what type of hand you have: you still have a very good opportunity to steal the pot with a continuation bet. When the opponent forfeits initiative to you and you continuation bet, you can still have all sorts of strong hands on any flop texture as far as what your preflop range allows. Your opponent, on the other hand, must now make a decision that will narrow his hand range by calling or raising. (Folding obviously narrows his hand range to nil.) From here, the basis of your strategy can be formed. “Do I want to bet again to charge his draws? Will I be following that up with a value bet on the river in most cases? Should I check turn to pot control, or to bluffcatch against a float? Should I bet again as a bluff? Should I just check/fold turn now that he’s called and I have nothing but 6-high?” You have many options available to you, a privilege your opponent lacks. His options tend to be, “I don’t have an amazing holding. If he bets again do I call or fold? What if I call and he bets river?” His range will likely be much more readable than yours. While you have the benefit of choosing the flow of the hand, your opponent is put into a reactionary stance, potentially opening him up to making mistakes.
Initiative is artificial, but so are your opponents’ fears and doubts. By maintaining initiative and aggression, you are imposing the threat of multiple continuation bets on your opponent. Often, I’ll have a weak pair on a dry board – for example, 55 out of position on K-7-3 rainbow against a loose, aggressive player. It’s a spot where I know my pair of fives might be ahead of my opponent’s range on the flop, but I’d have to fold the flop anyway due to the implied threat of him betting turn and river and putting me in a much tougher, more expensive spot. Similarly, one cannot blindly call against re-raises preflop, despite having position, due to the implied threat of the continuation bet that comes with the raiser’s initiative in the hand. By raising and calling against re-raises with speculative holdings I’ll be wasting a lot of money trying to hit flops. For every flop I miss, my opponent profits by bluffing me an inordinate amount of time. By raising then continuation betting a flop, you impose these threats and keep players in line, and merit a lot of folds. There simply isn’t much your opponent can do when you raise then continuation bet an Ace-high, dry flop if he doesn’t have much.
By now I’ve used the word “initiative” thirteen times throughout this article. I wish I could have found a way to fit it in another hundred times. It’s such a critical, understated, underutilized tool. Many people who rely on hitting flops continue to lose money and call it bad luck. In reality, they are not utilizing the concept of initiative in order to minimize chip loss when dealt a speculative holding. it’s those who utilize the concept of initiative well who make the most potential profit out of their worst holdings. But initiative still allows players to maintain the inevitable profit from their stronger holdings. Initiative forms the basis of aggressive play, which translates into a winning style when executed correctly.
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Feel free to leave any comments, criticisms, etc. I enjoy teaching pokers and writing is also something I've always wanted to be decent at. I still have a long ways to go in both so any help is appreciated.
Only time I lucid dreamt it scared the fuck out of me.
I caught myself in a night terror where I was being chased and for some reason realized I was in a dream - I started to really dodge and escape from these 'figures' or 'shades' much easier than I was before by running much faster and easily dodging them.
I then began to notice I was slowing down in the dream to eventually a snails crawl. That's when I noticed this horribly terrifying creature was approaching me - not massive but just how it eerily jerked and contorted it's body was not normal. It then started coming closer towards me, and as it came closer the other shades would back out and disappear.
I felt my entire body sink into the floor and my eyes were fixed on this being as it slowly came closer the fear built to the level where I think I tried to scream but nothing came out.
It then vanished and I felt it's presence right next to no paralyzed body. I remember him whispering to me that I needed to wake up - and as he whispered that to me I felt like it had decided my fate, a feeling of despair and dread drenched through every bone in my body.
When I woke up - I jumped out of bed and began turning on every fucking light I had to as I made my way to the TV room, and when I got up the stairs and turned to the tv room I saw myself watching tv. I began to walk towards myself and looked towards the kitchen when I fucking saw the creature standing a few feet away from me. It locked eyes with mine and I again felt myself being dragged down into the ground. I then began to hear a faint inaudible sound in the background which kept getting louder and louder. The figure then let out a screech and lunged for me, I clenched my eyes closed and when I noticed the screech was gone and instead my alarm clock was going off I opened them to find myself again in my room. I refused to move from my bed for a solid hour with my eyes glued to the door convinced that it would come back again...
I've had sleep issues ever since this dream - happened about 4 years ago. I still feel like sometimes if I fall asleep it'll reappear as if it has been waiting for me to return.
I've never felt anything more real than that dream and I don't believe in fucking ghosts or anything - and even when I try to rationalize it - I can't seem to get that dream out of my head.
So, the last blog I did had my roll at ~300k. Those times are long, long gone and my roll is a solid 5 figures again. I guess I lost most of it at 100/200 8game and staking and stuff like that, in short being a total degen. I have limited myself to 3/6 max since then and I'm slowly winning again at pokers whilst still being a total degen in other ways, like the $100NL homegame where everyone spews incredibly hard and has to autorebuy to 250bb.
This has however not hurt my morale, and I am feeling very happy mentally. A lot happier then I was when my BR was still a lot bigger, strange enough. I guess it's a change of mindset. I have started looking at the world in a much more positive light and exited an at least 4 year long depression since about august last year. I have recently begun grinding again and have shown marginally positive results. Though I still spew quite a bit in certain spots I'm happy with how I play in general and expect to slowly grind back up within reasonable time.
I've also started coaching. I am now a coach at Pokerzion.com which is led in large part by my friend Loosefer. I am looking for more students and I charge $100/hr. Will teach from 50NL up to 400NL.
I'd also like to thank all the railbirds since I'm a giant attention whore, and though I can't offer mass 1k multiway flips in the near future, I do hope to give you something to rail. Possibly a SCOOP FT? Who knows.
Now for some songs I find awesome:
Nydvind - King of the Hills (Pagan Metal) - I'm actually going to Metz to see them on the 14th!
So if theres one thing I'm a master at, it's playing with my whole roll on the table for the highest limit I can afford. It's how I started playing. Depositing $200 and sitting down at NL200 seemed like a good idea at the time afterall, I mean what else would I want to do with $200, play .5/10 cent? Laugh... Over the years I've managed to increase my BRM to the 5 BI or so mark, so at least now I'm playing with 5x the funds as I used to. And of course winning 3-4 BI's in a single session is like the greatest day ever and proves I play good making 400% ROI, so naturally I should cash out and save some again for later. I'm down something like -1.26/BB which clearly proves I'm a losing player so I quit poker until I paid off some debts and did some more soul searching.
But tonight I could not handle it any longer. My withdrawal symptoms became too great and all I could think about was the NL200 game downtown running in an hour, and how gawd awful these players were. Just last night I was watching my wife Holly grind NL2 online and just kept facepalming at all the hands people were calling her with. I just sat back for a few moments and said "wtf this is so easy, I know how to beat these fucks. Just, fuckin play solid. Dont even come with a gameplan, just play fuckin solid. Wtf does solid even mean? Fuck if I know, just fuckin do it".
So all I can do is sit there in my office today picturing the various joe blows at the live table and imagine that we are really playing online at an NL2 table. And then it was done. I sent a text asking if they had a seat available for me and that I would be there in about half an hour. The entire trip I just kept imagining the live table was the stars table. The felt in front of me would look just like the digital felt online. When I took a seat, I wouldnt be playing this like it was live, I would be imagining I was playing NL2 online, and each face across the table from me was nothing more than another retarded avatar of some guys baby/and or dog.
I bought in for $200, which was all I brought with me. You see I couldnt really afford to be playing right now. I had to win. I really needed this money, and considered playing tonight no different than putting in extra hours at the office for more pay. I needed the money. And from 7pm-10pm I proceeded to go from a $200 stack to a $980 stack. I warned everyone early that I was rusty and just gettin back in the game and would be leaving early tonight. If I bust i bust, and if I crush I crush. Luckily they all like me and dont mind a slight hit n run. Of course thats not to say the whole table groaned when I asked the host to rack em and cash me out. But there were like 20 people there tonight anyway so they probably all forgot within the next 5 minutes anyhow.
So I pocketed nearly $800 tonight one-tabling NL200 live. A heater or whatever, doesnt matter, goddamn I needed the money. So what am I gonna do with it? Well I'm debating putting $400 down for a single buyin of NL400 online. Or maybe play the NL500 live game this weekend. Maybe just 1 BI of NL200 online will be enough. Or maybe I'll just sink it all towards credit card debt/holly's birthday or something.
I dunno, but clearly I can buy in for 100BB's at any game and just pwn it up, so all I really need to make sure I have is $200 laying around in case I somehow bust what I earned. Me busting what I earned is totally irrelevant though, even if it exceeds the 1 BI rule. If I lose it all, I simply pull 200 more out of the bank and play. All previous withdrawals are erased, and each night is a clean slate. There shall be no auditing of my buyin history, each day is a new day. If you find all of this confusing, PM me and we'll discuss proper degen theory and I'll offer some live coaching on how to properly buy in at a table and run it up, and how to properly lose it all and have it mean absolutely nothing.
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