Really wanted to name my first blog post of the year "A New Beginning" but I think I've already done so some other year. Oh well.
Ariang always talks about how at least one guy on any decent dota team is the "Do shit" guy who walk around the map and makes shit happen. He's setting up ganks, making sure that the carry has somewhere to farm and overall make things run smoothly without maybe getting all the credit. I really think that point can be translated into "real life" too. There's always someone who makes shit happen. I wanna get started being that guy in some other areas of my life. Starting with my work at the Swedish Libertarian Party. I'll make sure to get something good done or started each month.
Poker
As far as poker goes it's going very well. I think I made a bit more then 40k€ or so last month and I'm already up something like 10-12k this month. Not bad for mid stakes, lol. Going to ad a few more sites for better game selection within a few weeks and hopefully that will translate into me being able to post a few good months in a row. I really, really want to win a ton of money the next year or two so I can buy a really nice house somewhere decent without having to take a loan.
I'll also take the time to evaluate my stats and crap like that at some point, but I'm far to busy so I'm looking at the last week of the month or so to take a look at that.
Gold and silver stocks
My investments are going so-so. Gold and silver went higher on the fiscal cliff deal and then it sunk worse then stones (which is natural, gold is heavy!) when the FED started talking about ending QE. Ending QE is obviously a bluff, they simply can't do it since no one else would want to pick up the slack.
Going to put up a huge blog post about the stocks and the stock market at some point, but like I said before I'm a little busy with some rake race and other things right now.
Invicia FC 4 – watched it all while playing poker
Van Saint vs Torres
Some scrappy stuff
Namajunas vs Kagan
GREAT FIGHT! So much fun. Never understood why girls should have long legs. Models looks stupid with them. Now I get it, they're for sick-ass triangles! Could hear Pat Berry in Namajunas corner, he's emotional. He's fun, great fun.
Calderwood vs Von Plattenwood
I like Calderwood a lot and I've said that before. Fairly fun, if somewhat one-sided, fight with great comments by Mo, Kedzie and Bas. All of them was really good.
Leslie Smith vs someone
Female Diaz, lol
Overall I think it was their best card so far. Really impressed.
Oh, and I sent 1k CAD to Nation's Cry, it was really easy and such. Will try to write something cool about them at some point too.
Not my best month ever really, but I think it might be the 2nd best. Could even be the best depending on in what currency you count it, but I'm not sure about that. Also, there's a few days left to go so I might be able to change that, I'll just need like 10 or 20k more and I'll for sure set a new record. I'm fairly happy about this since I've had a very slow year with a lot of run bad, shit that's taken time away from the grind and overall random crap.
When I was a highish stake NL pro my favorite poem all time was;
(yes, that's my favourite reading on youtube for some reason)
I always thought that;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss:
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
meant that I should be as happy when I ran good as when I ran bad. For some reason I figured I could live up to that. However, I was definitely more happy back in the day then during the last year during which I ran much worse, so I really think I let running bad fuck with my mental state. While earlier this month I reflected that I was annoyed that I did not feel happier over my success again I'm starting to come around a little bit and I feel much more at peace with myself. My girlfriend actually commented that she's so happy that I'm doing well, not only because of the money but mostly because I seem like a happier person. That's nice, but I should really start to handle my emotions better. I think it's easier when I have a solid foundation to stand on, and I'm working really hard to make mine stronger.
Due to this I changed my mind and I won't go for SNE next year. I'll just spread money over a bunch of euro sites and hope those games are better. I'll try to live a little bit more healthy, get my winrate up to something less swingy and spend more time both playing and studying the game.
I also got a bunch of books for Christmas. My father-in-law gave me this book about Jerusalem and I've read like 150 pages so far. It's really fun to read and it's given me a new respect for the Jewish people (I knew they where bad ass, but they're just on another level when it comes to surviving fucked up situations) and also reminded me that I'm really an intellectual at heart, even though I really try to pass for a red neck. My mother gave me Socratic Puzzles by Nozick which made me happy since I really liked Anarchy, State and Utopia and I do consider Nozick one of the great thinkers of modern time. I also got a bunch of other books and I'll take my time to read them, although I'll pause for a week or so when the last Wheel of Time book is released.
I've also moving forward with my book or whatever, a bunch of people are slightly interested in doing something with it. I think it could turn into something reasonably cool.
I have pretty decent Christmas list too, haven't worked on it yet this year, but it's fairly popular both some friends and some random what I assume is poker players since I linked it here last year: http://open.spotify.com/user/dammk%c3%a4rlek/playlist/3yKzxdPWid5CqK0ei2h3OD It's more of a classic rock Christmas.
I've had a very, very good 2 weeks or so since I hit my last milestone and decided to try out prima again. Up a ton after putting 1.2k on the site just to play around a little bit. If I Not bad, not bad at all. Anyway, together with a few half decent months this fall my year shaped up to be decentish. Not good by any means, but at least ok. Not sure about my plans for next year, I might just try to keep a roll on a few different sites and tables select a little to get the variance down. Not sure though! I kind of like variance.
Promised to give 1k€ to charity if I win more then 30k€ this month. Seems like I just might do that. I think I'll give it to Nations Cry.
Home
Nations Cry is a humanitarian organization focused on improving education in the developing world. Building schools, improving curriculum and training teachers are just a few of the ways that Nations Cry is helping to build a better future for children in West Africa and Central America.
Nations Cry uses extreme financial discretion, spending money only when required and where it is most effective. Our Financial Promise is that 100% of the donations received are used exclusively for humanitarian projects.
Our goal is to create a legacy for future generations by empowering those in need through long-term, sustainable solutions.
On their homepage they give a financial promise stating that:
1. 100% of the funds donated to “The Storehouse” will be spent on direct humanitarian related activities. 0% of these funds will be spent on administrative expenses.
2. No salary will be paid to any individual working for Nations Cry
3. Nations Cry will spend money when and where it is needed most without exception
That's how a organisation like this should work. The guy in charge of this is Nolan Watson who I've blogged about a fair bit earlier. I'm a serious fan of his.
Last two days before the weekend I think I lost more then I've ever done at the poker tables due to mining shares dropping in value fast for no really apparent reason. And I had some baaad sessions 10/20 HU back in the day
Anyway, late on Friday I finally decided to take it as a blessing in disguise and use they money I had laying around since I took some profits in Sandstorm Gold (SLL.V/SAND)at 13.20CAD or something and put it back into the company at 11.12. I read up a bit of about this and most people just feel that it's been a few days where the big stock indexes has crashed down through various support levels and basically taken everything stock related with it. Markets are stupid (at least short term when they're not free but full of big banks with bailout money)^^.
Back in the day my dad used to be angry about automatic trading and "a bunch of robots fucking everything up". I'm not though. If someone wants to drive markets lower (divert from optimal strategy) to abuse weak longs/investors (fish) I'll just abuse the dumb fucks who drives the market down by buying the dips. It's just like poker. Fuck that, I'm not leveraged, as long as I'm in solid companies that makes money you can do whatever the fuck you want, I'll buy the dips. I've made 8 high call downs for half a stack and J-high for a few 100bb's, try scaring me away from something I believe in.
Although, this made me more then a little over invested in Sandstorm Gold lol, I think I have about 50% of my portfolio in it which is, ehh, "slightly" more then recommended. Well I've stated it before and I've state it again, if I'm ever in need of a God I hope Nolan Watson is up for the job. In case Jerry Garcia can't make it. Anyway, here's a article about the businesses model:
I'm not following soccer much but Zlatan is so fucking good. Sweden has been really good for a few games now and if they can keep this up they might actually make a little noise the next few years until Zlatan and Co retires. He's only 31 years old and seems to be in great shape so we've got at least 4 or so years more of magic before he retires I hope.
This is a full highlight from the game against England:
And here's one vs Germany:
They should probably figure out why our defensive that has traditionally been good suck so damn much though.
Stuff I've learned last week
I've so far only read very few technical analysis of Gold or Silver saying it'll go down. It happens, but not as often as it should. I think I'm probably reading biased sources. Had a discussion about TA with a bunch of LPers and read the old Sick Mack-forum topic about investing and most seems to think that TA is more or less worthless. I'm not completely convinced but I'll probably keep paying very little attention to it. Sometimes I let it dictate at what point in time I should buy something I want for other reasons, but that's about it. Trader Dan (http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.se/), one of my favorite bloggers, seems to be somewhat good at not being to biased in his analysis but other that that it seems a little bit hard to find good ones.
For example, this, to me, seems like utter bullshit:
First of all, people has been talking of a cup and handle for a while now and according to what I've read it would've been supposed to break up again slightly faster then it did and as far as Elliot waves goes he had use a fair bit of good will to make that pattern fit.
Stocks
This is not financial or any other kind of advice, blablabla.
Nulegacy put this short clip up on their youtube page:
-share_video_user
1.4g AU per Ton is ok but not great by any means. A few years back you needed about 3g/ton to be happy to mine for it as I understand it and since this stuff lies fairly deep that's probably a low number. However, prices have rallied from about 250USD/oz or so to over 1700 so 1.4g looks a lot better in that light.
Gold miners took a big hit yesterday due to intense selling pressure from, ehh fuck if I know, but that happens. A TA guy would say a bunch of support levels broke while I'd say that people have a heard mentality. I think it's the same, probably. Thinking of buying the dip a bit and primarly looking at silver streamer Silver Wheaton.
Ron Paul
Congressman Ron Paul's Farewell Speech to Congress
The guy is a great hero of freedom and liberty. He takes a lot of time speaking about freedom of speech, the war on drug, internet freedom and other things. I really hope that his son will turn out like a congressman in his father's spirit.
I'm gonna take a trip around the world
I'm gonna kiss all the pretty girls
I'll do everything silver and gold
And I got to hurry up before I grow too old
Oh I do a lotta things I know is wrong
Hope I'm forgiven before I'm gone
It'll take a lotta prayers to save my soul
And I got to hurry up before I grow too old
So my portfolio is close to an all time high, thanks in big part to mister Barack Hussein Obama II and his homeboy “Helicopter” Benny Bernanke . His reelection was celebrated with a glass or two of red wine, an rather disappointing Amarone della Valpolicella from 2008. Someone posted a graph of what kind of stuff that has actually increased in value during Obamas time in the white house. Let's just say it's not the USD...
I'd like to write some more about stocks I like just because it makes me actually read a bit more about them and it's kind of fun.
This is obviously not investment advice, I'm not a certified anything that I can think of right now and nothing I write should be taken as a advice to buy any stock, commodity or anything else.
Anyway, remember that Nulegacy Gold thingy I wrote about a few weeks back? When I wrote about it it closed at 15 cents but in a unusual case of good timing I think (not important enough for me to be bother to fire up my other computer and have a look) I got it at 14.5 cents. Thanks to some renegotiation of one of their contracts they now have a much lower burn rate and can concentrate on their most promising project which is good for a few reasons:
1. No more annoying financing until a little later. They'll probably need to do something within a year or a little bit more, but it's still cool.
2. Better chance of getting good drilling results faster which would be fantastic since stock owners would really like to see the stock gain a bit of value before the next round of financing since that will make sure it won't be as damaging to the stock price. Better that a company can raise 1 million by selling a million shares at 1 USD/share then 10 million at 10cents/share, obviously. Not that this particular stock will cost 1 USD any time soon unless the drilling results are really, really great, but you get the idea.
Anyway, that was good enough for a gain of 10% or so the day they broke the news and according to yahoo finance it's now trading at 17cents for a gain of more then 10% in a month or so. I'd brag about this but everyone who knows anything about small stocks knows that penny stocks swings more then a 3 handed game with Isildur, Gus and Ilari where everyone is required to take a shot every 15 min and the game is 5 card PLO. That's why my holdings are fairly small, less then 2% of my portfolio. Oh well, it's a good start.
Another of my favorite companies right now is Avino Silver and Gold mines. It's a silver company in Mexico that I've been buying in different sizes for over a year. If you check out a graph of their stock market price you can tell that I'm down a bit... Not that bad thought, something like 20% on average and it was much worse before the stock started to gain momentum the last month or so. I have a fairly big position in this company. The company have a handful of projects but the ones they're working on is the old Avino Mines and The San Gonzales mine. They already are already making money from stockpiled resources that they process in their own mills so financing will probably work out fine and they hopefully won't need to raise more money before they can declare commercial production. The San Gonzales mine will declare commecrial production of about 250tpd in the near future and The Avino mine (~1000tpd) will do the same sometime 2014 if everything goes according to plan. The last is a key phrase when it comes to miners but except for one little fuck up (for which Wardrop Engenering rather then Avino was responsible) Avino has been very good at not fucking things up, doing things according to plan and keep costs down. What the total silver production would be is kind of hard to guess unless you know much more then me.
The Swedish blogger “Scoris” (http://www.marketsbyscoris.com/ it's in Swedish) has a good relationship to this company and intived the CEO to Stockholm to talk about the company in front of some Swedish stock owners a month or two back. Then they talked about how the Avino Mine, back in 2003 before it got closed due to low silver prices (it was 4USD/oz back then, now it's 30) produced about 800 000 oz silver, between 5 and 10k oz gold and 3.5 M lbs copper per year. That's equal to a production of between 1.3 and 1.6millon oz of silver. Given a production cost per ounce of about 10 (which would be really high, remember, they did not close it until silver was down at 4) that would give 1.3-1.6 million * 20 or between 26 and 32 million USD in profit per year from that mine.
I did some math on the smaller San Gonzales mine and I have no idea if it's correct but my highly speculative guess would be that the cash flow from that one would be about half of the cash flow of the Avino Mine. That'd put their yearly profit from the mines between 40 and 46 million per year within 2-3 years. So basically I think this company with a market cap of less then 50 million seems like a decent enough bet for me considering how they already have most of the material in place, is in a good place as far as finances goes and they tend to do decent enough when it comes to getting shit done on time.
Biggest share holders are Sprott Asset Management and Sprott Private Wealth which is something you very much like to see in Silver miners.
So, what's the downswide then? Well, first of all it's in Mexico. They say parts of Mexico is fairly safe but I'd still like to mention that. Then there is always a risk in miners. Shit happens, basically and fairly often it happens to miners. Then lastly it's the silver price. If silver ever goes back ot where it was 10 years ago or so the company is worth shit. However, if it happens to keep at these levels or increase even more it's great.
Another cool thing is that it's traded, like most mining stocks, in CAD instead of USD which keeps you solidly out of risk of the currency risk known as Barrack's and Benny's dollar printing dream team. Someone mentioned in some topic that the Dollar was even weaker during Bush then during Obama. That's only true if compared to other big currencies. Considering how the Euro, Pound and japanese weird fish money is just trash that's not a hard feat to archive. Compared to stuff people actually need (food, gas etc) and compared to traditional stores of value (gold, silver, maybe land depending on what part of the world you're in) the USD is at it's weakest point in it's history. Just because I sometimes get good stats in pub games when I play Dota 2 and Navi sometimes have players with negative stats in some games I can't claim to be a stronger player then someone in Navi.
My book
So I'm writing on a book about what shit actually costs. So far I've made some fairly extensive calculations on the cost of fining cannabis users. Working on what we are paying our politicians and what we could save by cutting their wages to the level of high school teachers and cutting back on their very extensive pension plans. So far it's about 6k words and I'm aiming to get maybe 60k words in total about all kinds of dumb shit in society. It's really fun for me because I'm really diving into weird laws, public reports and all kinds of stuff that our government has to publish statistics about but no one really reads for the most part. I know that's a bit like admitting to liking German Porn but for some reason I find dull reports on various topics relaxing. Plan is to try to get someone to publish it for me and if rejected just put it up on the internet for free in some way.
1. He's a lot like Pinball. Pinball was cool as hell. They both do thaiboxing, own up NL and tends to be happy. I seriously get confused sometimes when I talk to Longple and try to call him Pinball. I'm not very good with names.
2. He seems like a genuinly good guy. While altruism is something I don't hold in any esteem he seems to be one of those who genuinely like helping people out. If he'd be a monkey he'd be the one who made stuff work while all the other's threw poo at each other.
3. He's a mean Anti-Mage, just let him farm for 20 min and then he wins the game.
