Sports Betting Thread - Page 2

On February 09 2010 08:39 lukeperry wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices? 10 units is 1% of my bankroll. I never bet more than 20 units on a game but sometimes as low as 5 units, very rarely though. It's usually between 10 and 20. The teams in bold are winners, I don't really play on anything else but 1X2. So the teams in bold for win at the amount of units behind the matchup.

Betting 15-20 units on a game is pretty degen, even if your yield is sick (and its probably not) your risk of ruin is super high
Also betting on money lines only probably isnt a good idea, there are pretty big edges to be found in asian handicap lines

Im down 12k in sport bets this year so I obv know what Im talkin about

swings in sports r fun....always in action though =] made 35 units off the superbowl and a total of 80 units on the day on sunday. Granted I'm getting close to even since getting into sportsbetting back in november, but that was due to myself picking random teams w/o doing much researching and not knowing which ones were reliable cappers to listen to.

Now I have certain cappers that i'll tend to see who they'll pick and decide on which ones I like to follow or fade

NBA
Minnesota +7 (7.5U)
Denver -7 (10U)
Milwaukee -8 (7.5U)

NCAAB
Creighton -8 (20U)
Central Michigan +3 (7.5U)

will update more throughout the day possibly.

I am thinking about getting into sports betting and have done some research online about the terms and other junk.
Do you guys know any decent sites that have most used terms explained and that also show histories of bets and outcomes?
What sites do you use for your bets?
Thanks

I started betting NBA this season. For the past couple years, I was watching almost every single game on League Pass since I'm in a lot of fantasy leagues and I have a good chunk of money on those leagues anyway. I've done very well in fantasy leagues for quite some time and I felt as though I had an excellent understanding of the game and for player evaluation so I figured if I put some time and effort into it, I would be +EV.

I started by doing some research into basic math concepts. I think the Sagarin ratings are really simple to use, fairly accurate, easy to access and serve as a good starting point:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0910.htm

I think it is also important to have a spreadsheet or to use a calculator to figure out what the implied probabilities for the money line. I don't put as much weight on this as others do but it is still absolutely essential to at least know what the recent streaks are, how often certain teams have covered or hit the over, home/road losing streaks etc.

My main thing is I always try to identify factors that might not be well known by the general public and incorporated into the line. I started to bet on memphis a lot early in the season and that paid off huge. I was watching all their games and I didn't think most of the gambling public would be doing the same. My reasoning was that the lines would reflect public opinion that memphis has always been terrible and it would be difficult to account for the fact that they were actually playing some really good basketball without watching their games and having a good understanding of basketball. Case in point, I made a post on TeamLiquid and a well known NBA poster there responded to my post that Randolph was playing well by mocking me and saying "LOL Randolph". Most of the basketball public was probably thinking the same thing, but if you were actually watching the games and you understood basketball, you could tell that randolph was playing differently this year, he was hustling, playing defense and smart team basketball. The lines on Memphis now account for them being a winning team, but early in the year there were some really good lines and I made a killing on them. A similar line of reasoning that didn't turn out so well was with the wizards. They were losing a lot of very close games, and despite the fact that their record was terrible and they were not coming through in the clutch, they were not playing that badly. However, the line priced them in as a terrible team so I bet on them and while I lost a bunch and they continued to lose a ton of close games, I think it was the right play.

Sometimes I get too fancy and put too much trust in my analytical ability. For example, two bets that I placed recently. I bet the under on DET/NJ when the line was 186.5. That is an obscenely low O/U line but NJ was coming off a back to back, and devin harris was having wrist issues and there was talk about him struggling in the second game of a back to back. Harris had been shooting a terrible percentage and if harris was struggling to shoot, NJ's offense and prospects for the game itself were doomed. A good thing about a blow out is that teams don't foul like crazy at the end in a last ditch effort to try and come back so that bodes well for the under. I knew the math percentages were to never bet the under @ 186.5 but I decided I knew better and to go for it anyway. Devin Harris of course shot the ball well, DET went 7 for 7 from the 3 point line in the first half and I lost the bet.

Second bet that I regret is taking MIA moneyline @ +105 @ CHI. I actually liked CHI a lot and I had made a nice profit on them recently, most notably a win @ SA. But with Noah out, I thought that Wade would attack the rim and have no one to stop him. The Sagarin Ratings had them very close and with CHI with the home field advantage, +105 was actually a pretty bad line, but I made the bet anyway. I guess a lot of other people were factoring in Noah being out like I was and that was moving the line. Well, Wade ended up shooting 7 for 21 on mostly fadeaways, didn't really drive to the rim and CHI turned it on in the last few minutes to take the victory.

Finally, I just want to say that anyone interested in sports betting should check out the SBR forums and therx forum. They are kinda like the LP and 2+2 of sports betting and there is a wealth of information there. Also, everyone should check out matchbook.com. I just want to say that there is talk about them maybe being in trouble so I wouldn't rush to make a deposit yet. I actually requested a big withdrawal right after the super bowl, probably along with a ton of other people and I have my fingers crossed that I get my money. But if they do right the ship and prove a safe place to bet, then there is almost no reason to bet anywhere else since their lines are by far the best out there.

betting everythin on a single bookie is retarded, use betbrain.com to see which bookie offers the best odds for the game u wanna bet on, most of the time pinnacle and SBO offer the best odds for soccer

too bad pinny doesn't take US customers. matchbook has weak volumes on soccer and some of the smaller events, but for NBA and MLB, you can't beat them. Not even pinny will come close.

yea im totally clueless about american sports, didnt know that pinny didnt take us customers, sucks for you guys -.-

the sbr forums look pretty good. They confirm my thoughts on Vanderbilt -3 tonight. Vanderbilt is very good at home and recently beat Tennessee in very tough Knoxville. I think this is a pretty good pick. Georgetown -4 also looks like a good pick vs a weak Providence pick even though it is in Rhode Island. This is not the Providence team of old.

NBA it's looking like Utah is a good pick -5 at the clippers. Utah has been playing quite well recently. Wolves +7 is also well liked by people but I'm not betting that. I like to use a little instinct and hometown bias(76ers fan).

HOU/MIA 191 over

Utah ML -186

Dallas ML +256

Minnesota +7

I'm going against the tide with the Dallas bet but @ +256, the implied probability is 28% and I think even on the road vs Denver, Dallas is 30%+ to win. Their sagarin ratings are fairly close and I think the public is overreacting to denver's recent strong play and dallas' weak play. I usually don't play the spreads too much but I like the minny +7 bet. I know phily when they have won, have come by a decent margin, but I just don't think they have the firepower to blow teams out and Jefferson in the second half of the memphis game looked like his old self.

updated card, a little late due to bunch of the games starting at 4 and was navigating through 4 separate sites on placing wagers.


NBA
Minnesota +7 (7.5U)
Denver -7 (10U)
Milwaukee -8 (7.5U)
Miami -5.5 (6U)
Indiana -2 (7.5U)
Oklahoma City -1.5 (6U)
Washington +8.5 (7.5U)
Sacramento/New York o 214.5 (7.5U)


NCAAB
Creighton -8 (20U)
Central Michigan +3 (7.5U)
1H - VA Commonwealth/George Mason under 67 (5U)
Tennessee/Vandy U147 (10U)
1H - Tennessee/Vanderbilt under 69 (4U)
Boston College/Wakeforest U138 (10U)
Ohio -4.5 (7.5U)
1H - Western Michigan/Ohio under 66 (5U)
W Kentucky -2 (6U)
Purdue +3 (15U)
Providence +4.5 (5U)
Georgetown/Providence O157 (10U)
Evansville +10.5 (7.5U)
Colorado St. -1.5 (6U)


NHL:

Tampa Bay ML 130 (5U)
Nashville ML -135 (5U)
Detroit ML -133 (15U)
Boston ML 128 (5U)

On February 09 2010 11:34 MiPwnYa wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:39 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices? 10 units is 1% of my bankroll. I never bet more than 20 units on a game but sometimes as low as 5 units, very rarely though. It's usually between 10 and 20. The teams in bold are winners, I don't really play on anything else but 1X2. So the teams in bold for win at the amount of units behind the matchup. Betting 15-20 units on a game is pretty degen, even if your yield is sick (and its probably not) your risk of ruin is super high Also betting on money lines only probably isnt a good idea, there are pretty big edges to be found in asian handicap lines Im down 12k in sport bets this year so I obv know what Im talkin about

did you read the part where I said 10 units is 1% of my bankroll? kelly criterion etc.

<3 this thread I just got into sportsbetting as well and have been primarily doing NHL and a litttle NBA... Obv I dont know much about it but reading this thread and others will certainly help lol

Just a couple small bets tonight for me

NCAA

Purdue +3

NBA

OKC -1.5
Utah ML -197

On February 09 2010 16:56 TenBagger wrote: HOU/MIA 191 over Utah ML -186 Dallas ML +256 Minnesota +7 I'm going against the tide with the Dallas bet but @ +256, the implied probability is 28% and I think even on the road vs Denver, Dallas is 30%+ to win. Their sagarin ratings are fairly close and I think the public is overreacting to denver's recent strong play and dallas' weak play. I usually don't play the spreads too much but I like the minny +7 bet. I know phily when they have won, have come by a decent margin, but I just don't think they have the firepower to blow teams out and Jefferson in the second half of the memphis game looked like his old self.

looks like this guy is on his way to an 0-4 night. he's terrible, solid fade IMO.

and the overtime saves the over for rainkhan!

LOL how does HOU put up only 66 pts :/

my thinking on that bet was that the over/under line wasn't affected much by ariza being out of the game. However, ariza is a terrific defender and a terrible offensive player. He scores a decent amount but his overall offensive efficiency is terrible and I think houston will score more points with landry/budinger in the lineup. The double whammy, taking out his good defense and his bad offense led me to believe the over would be a good bet. =(

also, to everyone that posts their picks, I'm more interested in the reasoning behind it. If you guys would care to share, I'd love to see how people are thinking.

jamie, I got -186 for the ML on Utah on matchbook, thats a substantial difference.

On February 09 2010 18:24 Raidan wrote: updated card, a little late due to bunch of the games starting at 4 and was navigating through 4 separate sites on placing wagers. NBA Minnesota +7 (7.5U) Denver -7 (10U) Milwaukee -8 (7.5U) Miami -5.5 (6U) Indiana -2 (7.5U) Oklahoma City -1.5 (6U) Washington +8.5 (7.5U) Sacramento/New York o 214.5 (7.5U) NCAAB Creighton -8 (20U) Central Michigan +3 (7.5U) 1H - VA Commonwealth/George Mason under 67 (5U) Tennessee/Vandy U147 (10U) 1H - Tennessee/Vanderbilt under 69 (4U) Boston College/Wakeforest U138 (10U) Ohio -4.5 (7.5U) 1H - Western Michigan/Ohio under 66 (5U) W Kentucky -2 (6U) Purdue +3 (15U) Providence +4.5 (5U) Georgetown/Providence O157 (10U) Evansville +10.5 (7.5U) Colorado St. -1.5 (6U) NHL: Tampa Bay ML 130 (5U) Nashville ML -135 (5U) Detroit ML -133 (15U) Boston ML 128 (5U)

added La Clippers +5 for 7.5 units, and detroit ML was only 10 units and not 15. shootout now. gogo detroit

On February 09 2010 11:34 MiPwnYa wrote: Betting 15-20 units on a game is pretty degen, even if your yield is sick (and its probably not) your risk of ruin is super high Also betting on money lines only probably isnt a good idea, there are pretty big edges to be found in asian handicap lines Im down 12k in sport bets this year so I obv know what Im talkin about

ive read some pretty basic stuff on sportsbetting and i thought betting 1-2% of your br per bet is fine?