200nl tough spot vs nit

this guy is pretty nitty 12/9 not much aggression
can i rly put on him 88 here?
Submitted by : domyouji

PokerStars Game #38405379737: Holdem No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2010/01/19 12:07:22 ET
Table Viking II 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: OReydoAzar ($202 in chips)
Seat 3: 24kgilded ($633.25 in chips)
Seat 4: K-I 1979 ($114 in chips)
Seat 5: acegee$$ ($279.40 in chips)
Seat 6: FakieThis ($208.45 in chips)
Seat 7: Naruse ($200 in chips)
Seat 8: redacesfull ($271.10 in chips)
Seat 9: Hgh_Ssociety ($209 in chips)
acegee$$: posts small blind $1
FakieThis: posts big blind $2

Holecards
Dealt to Naruse
Naruse: raises $4 to $6
redacesfull: folds
Hgh_Ssociety: folds
OReydoAzar: folds
24kgilded: calls $6
K-I 1979: folds
acegee$$: folds
FakieThis: folds

Flop (Pot : $15.00)

   
Naruse: bets $8
24kgilded: raises $14 to $22
Naruse: calls $14

Turn (Pot : $59.00)

   
Naruse: checks
24kgilded: bets $44
Naruse: calls $44

River (Pot : $147.00)

   
Naruse: checks
24kgilded: bets $561.25 and is all-in
Naruse:

loll snap this!!!The easiest call ever.I dont think there is fold here in a million years

lol fullring

I don't know my read was that this dude is pretty passive and he insta shoved river

On January 19 2010 11:34 gororokgororok wrote: lol fullring

although now i look at it my line seems pretty weak

like he can't have KQ/KJ here

On January 19 2010 11:34 gororokgororok wrote: lol fullring

I love you man, you made me switch to 6Max <3

Yeah people don't even usually flat with KQ and KJ in full ring to EP raises which actually makes this closer than it looks. dunno if i can find a fold though since it really looks like you have an in-between PP or AA, i guess i would call and see what he has but you were right to think about it at least.

this is so much closer than it looks, a fold is probably right but i cant decide where, literally his range is either 88 or splitting with us, or a wild bluff but theres like no bluffs thateven make sense especially from this opponent.

at the table id probably just stackoff and whine when hes got 88, but i think he is going to have 88 a lot of the time here.

sigh....

can't see myself ever folding here -.-

this hand is hilarious what is the question this is the easiest call ever...?

seriously why are u guys outleveling urself, are u planning on folding to every sign of aggression from tight players? you have a massively under-represented, GIGANTIC hand.

I don't know I was thinking the same thing as critterer cause this guy dosen't seem to get out of line or anything

unless you know someone's tendencies you shouldn't be folding hands where u have almost the nuts like this. there are not enough hands that beat you to fold. 12/9 stats doesn't mean he can only have 88 or AK here. how many hands of history do you have with this guy? how many hands in spots like this have you looked him up?


and furthermore, if u are to fold, it should be on the turn

if you played these kind of passive nits he's almost onpar with vinivici or ronfar and I don't think they shove anything less than a boat here

also it was kinda impulse call because I was confused and don't know wtf was going on

this would actually be a thread if we had KJ or worse here. but we basically have the nuts wtf.

12/9? lol seems like 88 all the time
don't even think any Kx is in his range, and if he did have Kx, he'd just flat all 3 streets cause he's a nit and wouldn't raise for value

I think this is a little bit closer than some people are giving it credit for, just b/c this guy is such a nit and most of these nits aren't even capable of running epic bluffs like this.

That being said, there are literally only 3 combinations of hands we realistically lose to, and many more combinations of hands we split against. Plus, there is some minor chance he's spazzing out with something goofy here - although his line still looks like 88 exactly.

However, you also have to consider that a large portion of your UTG range does not include a K, and even less of that is AK. I know your UTG range isn't tight by any means so I would just say kudos for him if he's raising 88 on the flop and playing it in a manner that makes hands like KJ-, AA, QQ-, etc all mostly fold on the end.

Also, like Travis said, our hand is massively under-represented and given the pot odds (which I think you only have to be good around 33% to break even here), I think it's just going to be a call all the time. You did post a hand earlier as well against super nit SetzerMason where he did some goofy check/minraise flop //overshove river with essentially garbage - which definitely surprised me. Even though these guys are by the book solid super nits, they still can spaz out and do something stupid from time to time like the rest of us.

I'd probably fold on flop to be honest w/ you.

On January 19 2010 11:55 vlseph wrote: like he can't have KQ/KJ here

He never has KJ here and I'd still be shocked to see him play KQ in this manner.

Ye and I will jump on the train that says that we should fold flop or turn at least if we are pitching this river

Edit: Which implies never folding blank river.

he may have SC and missed FD on river
I think he would bet 88 a lot of time on the turn to get value from monsters (because you can check behind AA on turn vs. him)

i think you can fold......im just not sure where. but i think you have to fold somewhere.

this is never KQ/KJ imo.

seriously,don't fullring nits ever spazz? what he reps is ridiculously small

lol FR.

looks like a FH that knows you cant fold a king almost always

I agree that he's never KQ/KJ, but putting him on just 3 combo's that played fast right from the start is gross. I think his range is more polarized towards 88, maybe AK, and something like JTs missed fd. Nits definitely spaz out and if he's shown any indications of being on tilt or off his normal game this session I'd further lean towards calling.

fold flop and keep the day a happy one.

On January 19 2010 14:47 Maynard! wrote: I'd probably fold on flop to be honest w/ you.

I can't tell if this is a level, but I probably do fold flop vs this guy.

def fold river tho

Even nits can spazz out.. They are completely aware of their image and i think this is the perfect board for them to pull the trigger. They know we have 1010, JJ, QQ, AA, Kx and are most likely folding to a river shove vs THEM.
As said before we only need to be good 33% of the time to break even... I call

i call this down ;0
btw your read on this player blows

even against a super pesimistic range of 88/AK/KQs (only KQs not KQo) its a slightly +EV call

yea this is pretty nasty imo, but it feels so weak to fold.. only 88 beat us and u would expect him to slowplay some % of the time w that too so its just so unlikely that he would have it T_T but no one is bluffing here so, dunno, vs some regs id fold here honestly

for you who dont play fr, should not comment on this its different from SH play

I would certainly call even if he's quite nitty, it seems standard (yes nit will certainly spazz esp if they haven't had shit for a while). Just too bad if he has boat seriously, this isn't even deep.

ofc they do spazz sometimes, but the fact is basically his range is 88/AK + % spazzout. i dont think his % spazzout makes up for our lack of equity against his range.

mr. longple "for you who dont play fr, should not comment on this", just because you play a certain game dosnt make you an expert at it.. if you understand poker you can correctly analize any situation, if your not good you cant comment on anything

just because 100% of your play is full ring does not make you an expert, i would not want to hear the advice of 95%+ of the regulars I play with on a daily basis

the nittyness at 200 fr is ridiculous guys. For the 400nl+ 6max regs, play 200 fr for a few days and youll completely understand why this is a very close spot. If your calling its for a split, plain and simple, a weak tight 12/9 never plays kq this way.

I used to play FR exclusively and I've been dabbling in it recently. Something about not having to pay blinds, ever pretty much, takes away anyones need to get it in light. There are still lots of fish and people will still hero call so people seem to just sit and wait for nuts. I was pretty much close to 100% serious when I said fold flop. Realistically, against a 12/9 who is calling your UTG raise, you're against a pure bluff, AK(unsure if they'd raise) or 88. Against that range you just simply need to fold.

You might say to yourself, wait that doesn't make sense. If people always have nuts here why wouldn't people just represent nuts w/ air. I'd respond, good question fine sir, but there are two things that'll prevent that. The first being the fact that people still hero and he knows that he's up against a very tight range. He'll know that you know that he's only representing 1 single hand and you will level yourself into not folding AK or JJ+. He expects you to fight w/ premium pockets and probably go to town w/ AK.

Secondly and most importantly, HEM HUD destroys games. It destroys both but FR much moreso than SH. If a 12/9 started doing moves like raising the flop w/ crap his stats would start to change. His raise cbet would rise. If he were the type to mix it up he would also not play 12/9. He would play much looser. It really is as simple as seeing his stats as 12.9, looking at his cold call CO, then looking at his raise cbet, and making your decision based on that.

So I say again, on the flop you're against a small % of time that guy is bluffing, 88 and AK. You cant even put KQ in his preflop range really. Him playing KQ here would be as likely as him playing K8. In theory against a 12.9 multi-tabling nit, who called an UTG raise, I'd say fold. If you're going to be ahead in this spot you'll just simply know for sure that AK is good (Due to changes in actions).

Edit: It might change based on your stats. I'm guessing tho you're raising UTG tight (88+, AK, AQs) and not cbetting 100% of hands. If you are things might change.

On January 20 2010 20:24 TalentedTom wrote: mr. longple "for you who dont play fr, should not comment on this", just because you play a certain game dosnt make you an expert at it.. if you understand poker you can correctly analize any situation, if your not good you cant comment on anything just because 100% of your play is full ring does not make you an expert, i would not want to hear the advice of 95%+ of the regulars I play with on a daily basis

i was mostly targetting the

"LOLOLOLOL NIT LOL INSTACALL" nobrainer comments

obv a good pokermind can help alot in this situation since they can adjust their brain enough for a FR example poker is poker, that was not what i meant

i dunno why u felt so attacked and had to attack me, i didnt mean anything really?

im just saying this example imo is nothing to laugh about cuz its "nitty" it is actually pretty close spot

(imo, without trying to sound like an FR expert)

well don't say "for you who don't play FR don't comment" then.

why not target the speicific replies instead, the ones you felt were bad and ignorant.

anyway - isnt KQs in villains range in these spots?

I guess thats only one combination tough, KQcc.

And 3 combinations of 88, 3 combinations of AK (AhKc, AsKc, AcKc)

Beat: 1 combo, we win 147+128 = +275

Beaten by: 3 combo, we lose 3x128 = -384

Split w/ 3 combinations. 3x73.5= +220.5

Outcome vs this range (AK, KQcc, 88) = +111.5

Maybe he doesnt play AK, KQcc as aggressivly, but the same thing applies to 88, he might slowplay it from time to time, and add some spazz out factors too..

I wouldnt fold here.

On January 21 2010 10:27 SpasticInk wrote: well don't say "for you who don't play FR don't comment" then. why not target the speicific replies instead, the ones you felt were bad and ignorant. anyway - isnt KQs in villains range in these spots?

ye i agree, it was a bad sentence to write

my bad

If calling is a mistake then it's a potentially less worse mistake than folding could me. So call and if you lose then chalk this marginal spot up to variance

no its not ?

On January 21 2010 14:04 genjix wrote: If calling is a mistake then it's a potentially less worse mistake than folding could me. So call and if you lose then chalk this marginal spot up to variance

if calling is a mistake then ... we should fold...

if its a better choice than folding, it's obviously EV+ to call...

what kind of logic is that

On January 21 2010 17:53 SpasticInk wrote: Show nested quote + On January 21 2010 14:04 genjix wrote: If calling is a mistake then it's a potentially less worse mistake than folding could me. So call and if you lose then chalk this marginal spot up to variance if calling is a mistake then ... we should fold... if its a better choice than folding, it's obviously EV+ to call... what kind of logic is that

No I'm saying that if calling is a mistake then it's a small mistake. But that if folding is a mistake then it's a potentially huge mistake.

On January 21 2010 10:27 SpasticInk wrote: well don't say "for you who don't play FR don't comment" then. why not target the speicific replies instead, the ones you felt were bad and ignorant. anyway - isnt KQs in villains range in these spots?

HE NEVER SHOVES KQS, IT IS NOT IN HIS RANGE.

The only hands he ever shows here are 88, maybe AK, and maybe spazzing with some busted FD, maybe. He doesn't valbet KQ or KJ, ever.

lol @ the thought that he can even have KQs here ever, this is probably a flop fold

sick, why do u guys even play on FR stars?

On January 22 2010 03:29 locoo wrote: sick, why do u guys even play on FR stars?

BECAUSE WE GET FPP'S AND CAN HAVE FPP PRO AVATAR PICTURES

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT BEAUTIFUL COLOURS

http://www.fpppro.com/fpp-pro-avatars.php

nit 4 life

if this is a fold, then is bottom set on a dryish board too? if not can sum1 explain why

fistpump snapfold

On January 22 2010 08:52 genjix wrote: if this is a fold, then is bottom set on a dryish board too? if not can sum1 explain why

this is really an impossible board to bluff with that line

if you have a large sample this is a flop fold a lot of the times, if not, you're calling river 100%.

Like if he had AK he'd call call call he wouldn't raise flop as a nit. seriously FR is this nitty.

agree with Myth.

I know this is FR and it doesn't really pertain, but I remember playing shorthanded NL like 400nl and I had the nittiest stats ever (like 17/13), but I absolutely raped games because people ALWAYS thought I had the nuts, and I would repeatedly call people who opened somewhat lighter and then bluff and they would fold every fucking time and I would have nothing, and repeatedly I had people saying that they had to be beat and their reasoning was my stats.

I guess what I am saying is that fine, play completely by stats. But if you are playing with the same people every day and never look them up you're gonna be losing money to at least some of them.

On January 22 2010 08:52 genjix wrote: if this is a fold, then is bottom set on a dryish board too? if not can sum1 explain why

On January 22 2010 08:52 genjix wrote: if this is a fold, then is bottom set on a dryish board too? if not can sum1 explain why

it can be for sure... if the board is so that they cant ever have anything worse than of course its a fold... its just a rare occurance thats all

On January 22 2010 12:15 asdf2000 wrote: I know this is FR and it doesn't really pertain, but I remember playing shorthanded NL like 400nl and I had the nittiest stats ever (like 17/13), but I absolutely raped games because people ALWAYS thought I had the nuts, and I would repeatedly call people who opened somewhat lighter and then bluff and they would fold every fucking time and I would have nothing, and repeatedly I had people saying that they had to be beat and their reasoning was my stats. I guess what I am saying is that fine, play completely by stats. But if you are playing with the same people every day and never look them up you're gonna be losing money to at least some of them.

I entirely agree. Sod 'cool', I wish I had the discipline to be this nitty and aggro postflop - however it is a reasonable generalisation that people this nitty preflop just don't bluff enough post, and you are the exception. Also, It can't have been that repeatedly if you were 17/13.

In the case of a paired flop and we hold trips with the best kicker then 13 hands beat us. With bottom set on a dry flop then 12 hands beat us. That's one hand difference. If the trips is a fold then so is the bottom set.

Disregarding suits and just having ranks:

xxy

we hold: Ax
combinations that beat us: xx, 6 yy's, 6 xy's

xyz

we hold: zz (bottom set)
combinations that beat us: 6 xx's, 6 yy's

On January 24 2010 07:30 genjix wrote: In the case of a paired flop and we hold trips with the best kicker then 13 hands beat us. With bottom set on a dry flop then 12 hands beat us. That's one hand difference. If the trips is a fold then so is the bottom set. Disregarding suits and just having ranks: xxy we hold: Ax combinations that beat us: xx, 6 yy's, 6 xy's xyz we hold: zz (bottom set) combinations that beat us: 6 xx's, 6 yy's

Dude you're totally making shit up.

On January 24 2010 07:30 genjix wrote: In the case of a paired flop and we hold trips with the best kicker then 13 hands beat us. With bottom set on a dry flop then 12 hands beat us. That's one hand difference. If the trips is a fold then so is the bottom set. Disregarding suits and just having ranks: xxy we hold: Ax combinations that beat us: xx, 6 yy's, 6 xy's xyz we hold: zz (bottom set) combinations that beat us: 6 xx's, 6 yy's

do you even know what math is

you have 100 bb , click call and stfu

On January 24 2010 10:24 joLin wrote: Show nested quote + On January 24 2010 07:30 genjix wrote: In the case of a paired flop and we hold trips with the best kicker then 13 hands beat us. With bottom set on a dry flop then 12 hands beat us. That's one hand difference. If the trips is a fold then so is the bottom set. Disregarding suits and just having ranks: xxy we hold: Ax combinations that beat us: xx, 6 yy's, 6 xy's xyz we hold: zz (bottom set) combinations that beat us: 6 xx's, 6 yy's do you even know what math is

oh wait. ok i forgot the x we hold. so it's 6 yy's and 3 xy's making only 9 combos.

shouldn't that be a reason then to stack off more? since less combos beat our hand. or does it decrease cos theres less hands on this type of board = relative hand strength goes down?

Genjix, aside from the trips thing, there's only 3 combinations of sets. You're re-counting the ones where the suits change sides e.g. 2c2h and 2h2c.

ack lots of mistakes.

xxy
we have: Ax
beats us: 3 yy's 3 xy's (6)

xyz
we have: zz
beats us: 3 xx's 3 yy's (6)

? more questions!

its the same number of combos... so why would you fold trips vs this guy but not bottom set? just cos its more visible on the board... or?

12/9
3% flat range, with card removal from implied utg range I guess that's about
88-qq, ak. Maybe he turned 99 into a bluff, but oops river came 9. He's ak/88 and you're fucked 100%.
Maynard is a starcraft master, listen to him. Fold flop.

He's not doing this with jj qq. Tt 99 is his bluff range and a 9 hit the river.
He's not jamming this river tt to rep like his 99 just got there, no way u believe that story. You are chopping 4/10 times losing 6/10 IMO.

+75*.40 -150*.60 = -90+30 = -60
ah it ain't that bad a call only -60. Wait let's pretend he's a mad genius with TT.
-60*10/16 + 300*6/16 = +60 some
u need him to be 50% bluffing allin this river with his tt to break even.
I don't 12/9 are mad geniuses anyway foooooooooooold

Did I just beat talentedtom in a poker thread? Your Soul is MINE!!!



Ahhhh yess my power grows stronger.

WDF dude?! I don't see how you could possibly fold this! When he raises the flop its far more likely that he has K with weaker kicker or maybe a flush draw, rather than 88.

I would probably re-raise the flop here by a decent amount, and if he shoves, I call. Its an all in hand for me.

Folding to the blank river is the worst fold ever here man. The pot is $147 and you have $128. Call call call - all day. So what if hes flopped the nutz - you can't win them all.