NL100 underrepped AA with 4 callers

villain runs at 26/10/15/0 (80 hands)


Poll: What do i do?
(Vote): fold (nit for life)
(Vote): call (he might have the case king)
(Vote): ez shove this guy is a noob


Submitted by : flounder44

Full Tilt Poker Game #12960790140: Table Padova (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:59:19 ET - 2009/06/22
Seat 1: dan9876 ($100)
Seat 2: Mr Mira ($100)
Seat 3: wu chen ($135.50)
Seat 4: Regina Welton ($102.40)
Seat 5: junkcard ($100)
Seat 6: flounder44 ($141.80)
wu chen posts the small blind of $0.50
Regina Welton posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #2

Holecards
Dealt to flounder44
junkcard calls $1
flounder44 raises to $4.50
Mr Mira calls $4.50
wu chen calls $4
Regina Welton calls $3.50
junkcard calls $3.50

Flop (Pot : $22.50)

   
wu chen checks
Regina Welton checks
junkcard checks
flounder44 has 15 seconds left to act
flounder44 bets $13
Mr Mira folds
Mr Mira adds $4.50
wu chen folds
Regina Welton calls $13
wu chen stands up
junkcard folds

Turn (Pot : $48.50)

   
Regina Welton checks
flounder44 checks

River (Pot : $48.50)

   
Regina Welton bets $42
flounder44 has 15 seconds left to act

i shove here cause i think if he did have the case king he would value bet it way less since your range looks weak here.
but i thought that another time where some person actually did have quads, i think folding is bad here though cause if they have QQ they will think its the nuts anyway.

Did you notice that the chance he has the K is about 2%? lol

flat

or maybe fold

ye prob fold actually

flat

On June 22 2009 03:02 staxxx wrote: Did you notice that the chance he has the K is about 2%? lol

damn didnt notice that

and were not flatting because he might have the case king

meh probably call actually

On June 22 2009 02:28 vlseph wrote: i shove here cause i think if he did have the case king he would value bet it way less since your range looks weak here. but i thought that another time where some person actually did have quads, i think folding is bad here though cause if they have QQ they will think its the nuts anyway.

he never has QQ here, ever. If he does then holy god he's retarded (unless limper tends to limp raise UTG w/ something other then AA)

He probably doesn't have JJ

IMO his range is 60% TT/99/8x, 30% random air crap that i cant figure out how he got here with it, and 10% the case king

So the question is:

Will he call a shove with TT/99/8x? If so then u should shove, if not u should flat.

Also if he is a reg I like a flat solely to see his hand and learn what he has for future use. eg if he shows up with 99 or TT note that he calls Kxx flops OOP with second pair

ok the fact its 5-way makes it more likely he has the K on the flop, but he can also have 8x 99 TT which after your turn check he turns into value bet on the river. If you shove he has to call with these getting more than 4:1.

perfect river card, and he pots it, shoveeeeeeeeee

chop off your hand if you wanna fold here

Flat. Can't shove can't fold.

Very trivial decision. I also think call > fold >>> shove.

dont mind a jam, dont mind a call, kinda mind fold.

well i guess this wasnt a thread if villian didnt held a K

I flat, cause he rarely calls shove with worse imo and u gain important info about his play in case he was bluffing.

minraize!

What was his timing on the river? I think a timing tell could get give a good help for the desicion. I think he would take kind of long to bet TT-JJ here and bet quads rather fast.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,377,180 games 3.240 secs 1,968,265 games/sec

Board: Kc Kd Kh 8h 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.999% 50.01% 00.00% 3189125 0.00 { JJ-TT, KTs+, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 50.001% 50.01% 00.00% 3189422 0.00 { AA }


So this is close, if he bets JJ/TT or maybe even a weirdly played QQ its profitable to call , if he does not bet TT its break even.

Also betsizing rather looks like quads, and his stats look kinda weak tight, so him betting a PP here and peeling with it on the flop becomes less likely.

uhhh... what hands is he flatting in a 5 way K83rainbow flop that he bluffs the river with... uhhh this is SUPER close, you beat a slowplayed set 33/88 which is now making a tiltbet, he would have to be preety horrible to have QQ-99, I'd prob just eliminate those from his range all together... on that note there's prob more combo's of 88/33 in his range then Kx so call SHOULD be ok, but its super close


err prob fold is better.. but this is one of spots where if call is correct the EV of the call is very close to 0, same goes for fold, so at the end of the day it should not matter very much, it just comes down to what kind of varience you want, calling is higher varience, folding is lower