KJs riv flush 600nl vs Leatherass

villian is leatherass very solid... my image is probably taggish around 21/18...My question is simply this.
Is there any merit to shoving this river?
I took a lot of heat on 2p2 for this hand but I think that if you are openminded enough you will see my thinking.
I have a 513$ behind
Submitted by : Jamie217

POKERSTARS GAME #11760108372: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($3/$6) - 2007/08/29 - 16:36:58 (ET)
Table 'Mashona' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: EdGonzo ($539 in chips)
Seat 2: BIG Y 007 ($456 in chips)
Seat 3: Sherman1400 ($237.30 in chips)
Seat 4: Leatherass9 ($894.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Jamie217 ($856.50 in chips)
Seat 6: AideenO ($1527.30 in chips)
AideenO: posts small blind $3
EdGonzo: posts big blind $6

Holecards
Dealt to Jamie217
BIG Y 007: calls $6
Sherman1400: folds
Leatherass9: raises $24 to $30
Jamie217 : calls $30
AideenO: folds
EdGonzo: calls $24
BIG Y 007: calls $24

Flop (Pot : $123.00)

   
EdGonzo: checks
BIG Y 007: checks
Leatherass9: bets $95
Jamie217 : calls $95
EdGonzo: folds
BIG Y 007: folds

Turn (Pot : $313.00)

   
Leatherass9: checks
Jamie217 : checks

River (Pot : $313.00)

   
Leatherass9: bets $200

I think it's important to note here - against a UTG limper leatherass is tight to a degree where he does not isolate with suited connectors like 98s, 87s etc..

I think I'd need a hell of an instinct not to shove the river. If you're very conservative postflop and he knows that, I suppose you could call.

flat call here if you've never made a play on the river in your life which is probably the case seeing how you want to flat call here LOL

I like minraise, fold to a push best.

I gave some more detailed thoughts here - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...Number=11883977&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1

On August 30 2007 13:00 tomson wrote: I like minraise, fold to a push best. I gave some more detailed thoughts here - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sho...977&page=0&fpart=all&vc=1

Thats probably the best play in a vacuum but I would push here for image considerations and peace of mind.

god, that thread reminds me of how horrible 2p2 is

That topic fucking pisses me off. 2+2 mods are a disgrace.

On August 30 2007 13:38 tomson wrote: That topic fucking pisses me off. 2+2 mods are a disgrace.

so frustrating on 2p2

lol tomson

Two plus two mods in the mid and high stakes NL forums are actually for the most part deservedly recognized, accomplished players. And they're there on the forums to express their opinion, not agree with you. You can discuss hands with them. You don't win anything by proving that you're right. Forums are mainly used for sharing information and discussing points of view, not for singing in unison.

You got their thoughts. Now it's your job to evaluate and form a final opinion on this matter. Nothing else is owed to you

Being a mod warrants some kind of standards. If I ask for a kind discussion and the very next thing he does is laugh at my face that shows he's not fit for the job. Also when I point that out and he says in a patronising way that I'm clueless (I'm most likely better than he is, but that isn't the point), now that just shows you what a disgrace he is.

I'm probably taking this shit too serious, but that tilted me a bit.

2+2 is retards, seriously they all post stupid shit unless its in the HSNL forum, and even then u really don't get good responses.

I think you should shove this river, although its not as clear cut as everyone says. I shove this river because I have a maniac image (at 5/10 at least) vs leatherass9, and I think he would call any flush vs me, along with even AsTx or something like that. Plus it really protects if I ever wanted to bluff this river, which would be possible since he bet only 200 into the 300 pot, if he made a full pot bet i'd have a much tougher time bluff raising on the river I think.

Really his line does look alot like AsXs, but you make up for the times you're coolered with the times that he calls with worse/you avoid showdown and keep an aggressive image that keeps him guessing.

I wouldn't fault you too hard at all for flatting here, especially if your image is that of a solid conservative player toward leatherass, because then I think he has alot of trouble calling with worse considering theres not many QsXs in his range

You probably are taking this shit too serious, Tomson.

I'll be honest, about a year ago, I got into huge arguments with 2+2 over insignificant hands and it seemed like proving myself right mattered a lot. When everyone disagreed with me, I'd keep arguing and just have everyone laugh at me. I'd still believe I was right. Maybe I even was right sometimes. It's unlikely though, because a lot of the posters on 2+2 are very experienced players. Later I realized that I used the forum wrong, and that I was creating dumb arguments. The best attitude there is to post, have a bit of discussion and collect data. Once they disagree, you're probably not going to be able to "educate" them so you shouldn't waste time trying.

On August 30 2007 14:16 MezmerizePLZ wrote: I wouldn't fault you too hard at all for flatting here, especially if your image is that of a solid conservative player toward leatherass, because then I think he has alot of trouble calling with worse considering theres not many QsXs in his range

I think that this would be my main arguement for flatting. However as ppl like Tomson and Adam have brought to my attention the best line is most likely a min R and fold to a shove

because you often minraise with 2p and bluffs there?

Because it makes it more likely he'll call with worse flushes and sets and saves us a bit of money if he has the AsXs (we will be getting insane odds, but he's not doing that without the A hi flush).

But he is a disciplined and a calculating player, so if he calls the minraise here with a weak flush or a set, I guess it's because he believes that you'll minraise there with 2p, baby flushes, and bluffs? Is that true?

Bottom line is, you can't fault anyone for not knowing the other player well, or your image, or your history with him. But an optimal playing style by majority seems to mean being capable of plays on the river and not playing transparently, which would sway the decision here towards a shove.

The reason i tihnk we need to shove, is because obv if he folds he doesn't know we didn't bluff, so for future hands we are more likely called, but i think most important is that we aren't taking into consideration the human factor, and that he will hero call here enough imo for it to be profitable. minraise and fold to a shove imo isn't steller because its much less likely we are bluffing with a minraise, it just wont be as profitable as shoving. Imo Shoving >calling >minraise fold to a shove. its a real sick spot though =|

this is a ultra easy nitty power insta shove for value.