Adesanya: Trained by Eugene Bareman – Adesanya, KKF, Riddell, and Young’s coach)
• via Joe Osborne of OddsShark.com: There have been 13 UFC title fights thus far in 2020. 9 of those 13 title fights went Over 2.5 rounds. 11 of the last 14 non-title main events have went Over 2.5 rounds.
• 6’4 vs. 6’1, 80 inch vs. 72 inch. 5 of 8 wins in the UFC went to a decision for Adesanya, and 2 of his 3 finishes ended Over 1.5 rounds; Costa 1 of 5 wins in the UFC went to a decision, and 3 of his 4 finishes were in Round 2. Big cage, which allows for more movement and less of a chance of finishing.
• UFC game (everyone on the cover loses afterward): Ronda, Conor, Conor again, Masvidal, and now Adesanya.
Costa: Trained by Eric Albarracin – Henry Cejudo & Patricio Pitbull’s coach, both champ-champs)
• He’s not a 1-punch KO artist like casuals think he is, he pressures people and throws a lot of arm punches instead of technical strikes.
o Stats and stuff:
? Round 1 will be slow, as they’ll feel each other out. Costa won’t go hard and blow his wad in R1. After seeing how Romero fought against Adesanya, I think we’ll see Costa do his best to slow Adesanya down and limit his movement, like throwing more leg kicks, working the body (which he’s good at), and attempting to clinch against the cage (which makes it so Adesanya can’t throw any strikes, as he can only strike from a distance).
? Run-in in the hotel lobby: both were super chill and they were joking at how slim each other was. The UFC and its employees tried to spin it and say how there is animosity there, and how their joking mood really meant something else. I’m not buying that BS. If they truly hated each other, they wouldn’t be cordial in a hallway, and wouldn’t be okay with the other person touching them.
o My Pick: Over 2.5 -115 on BAS (currently have $345 for $300), and we’ll see what line I can get when I arrive in Vegas, but I will risk whatever to win an additional $500.
Two fighters were 4 lbs overweight. What does that usually mean? They didn't actually try that hard to cut the weight and won't really affect their performance badly? As opposed to being 1 lbs overweight...
PuertoRican   United States. Sep 25 2020 20:56. Posts 13030
On September 25 2020 19:15 captainhook wrote:
Thanks!
Two fighters were 4 lbs overweight. What does that usually mean? They didn't actually try that hard to cut the weight and won't really affect their performance badly? As opposed to being 1 lbs overweight...
When fighters miss weight by 3+ pounds, it usually means they stopped trying to cut the weight because they knew they weren't going to make it.
There was a recent fight where a fighter missed weight by multiple pounds, and they looked bad in the cage. So, I think it just depends on the person on whether or not they stopped cutting weight to preserve their energy and have a slight edge on fight night, or if they really had a bad weight cut and stopped cutting weight because their body wouldn't allow them to cut anymore weight.
1.5 pounds or less overweight usually means they tried to cut the weight, but their body wouldn't allow them to cut anymore.
For Tukhugov, I have no idea why he missed weight. For Klein, he took this fight on 8 days short notice.
Why are a lot of people so excited about Royval? I watched only one of his fights, vs Elliot. I didn't really like what I saw with his striking. KKF trains with City and has trained at Tiger.
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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 26 2020 03:05. Posts 13030
Israel Adesanya (184) vs. Paulo Costa (185)
Dominick Reyes (205) vs. Jan Blachowicz (205)
Kai Kara-France (126) vs. Brandon Royval (126)
Ketlen Vieira (136) vs. Sijara Eubanks (136)
Hakeem Dawodu (145) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (150 lbs)*
Brad Riddell (156) vs. Alex da Silva (156)
Diego Sanchez (170) vs. Jake Matthews (170)
Shane Young (146) vs. L’udovit Klein (150)**
William Knight (205) vs. Aleksa Camur (206)
Juan Espino (255) vs. Jeff Hughes (258)
Khadis Ibragimov (206) vs. Danilo Marques (206)
*Zubaira Tukhugov misses weight by 4 lbs.
** L’udovit Klein misses weight by 4 lbs.
All value is with Costa now. I have him... Small tho.
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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 26 2020 16:54. Posts 13030
On September 26 2020 03:35 captainhook wrote:
All value is with Costa now. I have him... Small tho.
I'm at the airport, on my way to Vegas.
The Over 2.5 Izzy/Costa fight will be -150 or so by the time my airplane lands. I'll bet $750 to win $500. I'll also add $50 on Costa R2 +900 or better as a hedge to the 2.5 rounds bet I'll have in Vegas and the $345 I already have on the Over at -115 on BAS. I also want to bet on Costa at +165 or better; he's currently +167 on 5dimes.
I'm seeing this as more than a strong brawler vs. a technical striker. I expect Costa to show different tools in this fight, which I mentioned in my breakdown: a lot more leg kicks than usual, punches to the body, and a little bit of clinching against the cage to keep Izzy in one spot to unload on him. Those 3 things will slow Izzy down enough for Costa to land his higher output on Izzy than many people are expecting.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 26 2020 19:13. Posts 13030
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 26 2020 22:58. Posts 13030
My bets thus far (I'm waiting to add 1 more bigger bet to Kai Kara France)
• Adesanya/Costa O2.5 -155 $775 for $500 (Westgate)
• Adesanya/Costa O2.5 -115 $345 for $300 (BAS)
• Paulo Costa submission +2500 $10 for $250 (Westgate)
• Paulo Costa Round 2 +850 $75 for $637.50 (Westgate)
• Reyes/Blachowicz O2.5 -145 $435 for $300 (William Hill)
• Jan Blachowicz decision +800 $10 for $80 (Westgate)
• Kai Kara France -225 $225 for $100 (BAS)
• Kai Kara France -220 $90 for $40.90 (Caesars)
• Shane Young +110 $50 for $55 (Westgate)
• Shane Young submission +800 $5 for $40 (Westgate)
• Hakeem Dawodu +115 $50 for 57.50 (Westgate)
• Sijara Eubanks +170 $150 for $255 (William Hill)
• Sijara Eubanks TKO/KO +1005 $5 for $50.25 (BAS)
• William Knight R1 +425 $10 for $42.50 (Westgate)
• Ibragimov/Marques ITD -150 $250 for $166.67 (MGM)
Parlay: Costa, Blachowicz, Dawodu, France, Matthews/Sanchez O2.5, Ibragimov $50 for $3791.83
On September 27 2020 03:44 PuertoRican wrote:
I don't care what the commentators said. France got hit with an illegal knee right in front of the referee.
France was on auto pilot after that.
Gotta watch it again. Hard watching a bit drunk and with all these people around.