UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs. Bader

Date: Saturday, January 30th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/





Main Card (FOX)

Anthony Johnson (20-5) vs. Ryan Bader (20-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Josh Barnett (34-7) vs. Ben Rothwell (35-9) (Heavyweight)
Iuri Alcantara (32-6) vs. Jimmie Rivera (18-1) (Bantamweight)
Sage Northcutt (7-0) vs. Andrew Holbrook (11-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Tarec Saffiedine (15-4) vs. Jake Ellenberger (30-10) (Welterweight)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-1) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2) (Lightweight)
Kevin Casey (9-3) vs. Rafael Natal (20-6-1) (Middleweight)
Dustin Ortiz (15-4) vs. Wilson Reis (19-6) (Flyweight)
George Sullivan (17-4) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (22-6-1) (Welterweight)
Alex Caceres (10-8) vs. Masio Fullen (10-5) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Matt Dwyer (8-3) vs. Randy Brown (6-0) (Welterweight)
Levan Makashvili (7-2) vs. Damon Jackson (9-1) (Featherweight)
Tony Martin (9-3) vs. Felipe Olivieri (14-4) (Lightweight)

Other

- Joaquim Silva was expected to face Olivier Aubin-Mercier at this event. However on December 23, Silva was forced to pull out due to injury and was replaced by Carlos Diego Ferreira.

^ Introduction of Sage Northcutt



^ Introduction of Randy Brown

----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Johnson > Bader
• Barnett > Rothwell
• Rivera > Alcantara
• Northcutt > Holbrook
• Saffiedine > Ellenberger
• Mercier > Ferreira
• Natal > Casey
• Ortiz > Reis
• Sullivan > Yakovlev
• Caceres > Fullen
• Makashvili > Jackson
• Martin > Olivieri
• Dwyer > Brown

Bader drawing dead on this one
he's a better version of Phil Davis, will look clueless on the feet when he cant take AJ down

Wow, I can't b elieve Ben Rothwell is the underdog.
I thought he would be -400 ish.

LOL, Why would you ever think that? Barnett is better everywhere. Rothwell is bigger and tougher.

I am big here on Saffiedine. Also I like Rivera, but very unhappy that I missed the early price for that.

Also I think there is value at Bader by sub at +1200 and Bader 4rd +3450 or 5 round + 4450. If he can survive the early rounds he has a chance to take this fight with the way AJ chokes when fight is not going his way.

AJ by KO definitely (-245) and maybe Rothwell ITD (+271)

I was thinking about o1.5 -145 in the AJ/Bader fight. Still have a little under 2 weeks to go, so I'll worry about it next week. I definitely won't pay -400 for AJ's money line.

Rothwell ITD? are you serious?

Barnett is a grinder if it goes to a decision Barnett wins it almost always, its a bad matchup for Rothwell he would be drawing slim here if it were for the fact that Barnett is old as fuck a it shows.

Date: Saturday, December 30th

Thats an early post for the card :D


Holiday fatigue

Good for AJ to regain a title shot faster and we get to potentially see JBJ vs him

On January 19 2016 23:24 Spitfiree wrote: Show nested quote + Date: Saturday, December 30th Thats an early post for the card :D Holiday fatigue Good for AJ to regain a title shot faster and we get to potentially see JBJ vs him

Carlos Condit getting robbed still has my brain fucked up.

I edited the OP.

Don't think I'm going to be on either side of AJ/Bader but definitely going with the over. Rumble bombing out people fast like Alex Gustaffson was at least a good part because the opponent was willing/trying to exchange for more than one punch with Rumble. Bader is going to try to make the first round as boring as humanly possible and if he lucks out and actually gets on top of Rumble, he'll stall a round out because AJ can't get up from anything. Of course Rumble can make an over bet look really stupid easily but w/e

Like Saffedine > Ellenberger elsewhere and that's it on first look

Northcutt being on the main card over Saffedine/Ellenberger is a bit funny.. Especially if you look at his opponents record (hint: look at the records of that guys opponents. Ya.)

On January 19 2016 23:15 Baalim wrote: Rothwell ITD? are you serious? Barnett is a grinder if it goes to a decision Barnett wins it almost always, its a bad matchup for Rothwell he would be drawing slim here if it were for the fact that Barnett is old as fuck a it shows.

ITD would mean it DOESN'T go to a decision tho..?

oh...

ITD = Inside The Distance = somebody finishes the fight

On January 20 2016 14:21 TianYuan wrote: Northcutt being on the main card over Saffedine/Ellenberger is a bit funny.. Especially if you look at his opponents record (hint: look at the records of that guys opponents. Ya.)

Nothing unusual about it, Northcutt s getting a lot of attention and has the potential to become a big star atm. Its all about the noise someone makes, the more - the more money for the UFC. They are running a business after all. Ellenberg lost versus all of the top contenders, he s out of the big picture atm

All my money on Mr. Northcutt .. ITD

Andrew Holbrook is injured, and is out of his fight against Sage Northcutt.

Bryan Barberena will replace Holbrook.

Barberena vs. Northcutt will be at welterweight, not lightweight.

Barberena was originally scheduled to fight Jonavin Webb at welterweight on February 21, 2016.

On January 22 2016 19:02 PuertoRican wrote: Andrew Holbrook is injured, and is out of his fight against Sage Northcutt. Bryan Barberena will replace Holbrook. Barberena vs. Northcutt will be at welterweight, not lightweight. Barberena was originally scheduled to fight Jonavin Webb at welterweight on February 21, 2016.

wait what?

this is big imo. Barberena is no joke, no joke at all.

Apparently Iuri Alcantara and Charles Oliviera are two completely different persons.

Is that spike an indication that someone made a huge bet against sage?

edit:Thanks rican

On January 28 2016 09:22 gebbstet wrote: Is that spike an indication that someone made a huge bet against sage? edit: hmm I never seem to mange to post images, anyone know why? link here http://imgur.com/2SUXcSg

You're using the wrong link. It should end with an image file extension, like:

.jpg
.jpeg
.gif
.pnd
.etc

Right click the picture to get the image location.

And yes, people are betting on Barberena.

hammered AJ -300 and put some on barbarena at +350

I'll probably put a small bet on barbearena

Anthony Johnson (205.25) vs. Ryan Bader (205)
Josh Barnett (241) vs. Ben Rothwell (265)
Iuri Alcantara (135.25) vs. Jimmie Rivera (135)
Bryan Barberena (170) vs. Sage Northcutt (170)
Jake Ellenberger (170) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (169.75)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (155) vs. Diego Ferreira (156)
Kevin Casey (185.25) vs. Rafael Natal (185)
Dustin Ortiz (125) vs. Wilson Reis (126)
George Sullivan (171) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (171)
Alex Caceres (145) vs. Masio Fullen (145)
Randy Brown (171) vs. Matt Dwyer (169)
Damon Jackson (145) vs. Levan Makashvili (145)
Tony Martin (155) vs. Felipe Olivieri (155)


- Rumble weighed in with his pants on and made weight no problem. Bader had his shoes on when they did the stare down.
- Ellenberger looked good on the scale when compared to his last couple of fights.
- CDF was moving slow while talking his clothes off on stage, and he used a towel right away and was super thrilled he made weight at 156 pounds. Also, he recently shaved his entire head, which used to have a lot of hair.

I think putting some on Barberena is a little bit of ingrained hoping for hype to bust. I mean I guess until we see Sage in a real fight, there's always going to be questions about his toughness/chin but it's going to take someone on a higher athletic level than Barberena to push Sage there imo.

Think I've convinced myself to like Bader in the main a little. Though AJ did look really good as he has been looking recently. Luke Thomas had an interesting point in his predictions in that he thinks it'll look a lot like the Phil Davis/Rumble fight. Guess it always could because you just never know how someone will react to power like Rumble's but as weird as it sounds since he used to have mental slip ups, I think the current Bader fights smarter than Phil Davis ever did.

On January 30 2016 04:00 iakim322 wrote: I think putting some on Barberena is a little bit of ingrained hoping for hype to bust. I mean I guess until we see Sage in a real fight, there's always going to be questions about his toughness/chin but it's going to take someone on a higher athletic level than Barberena to push Sage there imo. Think I've convinced myself to like Bader in the main a little. Though AJ did look really good as he has been looking recently. Luke Thomas had an interesting point in his predictions in that he thinks it'll look a lot like the Phil Davis/Rumble fight. Guess it always could because you just never know how someone will react to power like Rumble's but as weird as it sounds since he used to have mental slip ups, I think the current Bader fights smarter than Phil Davis ever did.

Barberena is tough, and I think he'll make it past the first 5 minutes; however, he was preparing for a fight at 170 pounds, and it was supposed to take place next month, yet he looked the same at 170 as he did at 155 pounds, except that he has a ring of fat/spare tire around his waist and still has no muscles. On the other hand, Northcutt looked amazing at 170, just like he did at 155.

If Barberena's line gets to +400 or better, I'll put a bet on his ML. Otherwise, I'll stick with my 1u on o1.5 rounds at -135.

Also, remember that this card is on FOX, which means it starts early: 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST

Yeah Sage looks like he'll be well suited to 170. So young so he'll be able to cut to 155 still for long time too. Barberena is tough and seems well rounded enough. Just don't see real paths to victory for him. Not explosive enough to catch someone as fast as Sage and even if Sage is green technically, not like Barberena is a Tumenov or anything

Anthony Jhonson in round 1 (+170) looks great to me

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

YES!!!

Tony Martin is back, baby!

Sage Northcutt's hype train was just derailed after he went for some cartwheel kick and ended up on his back. He tapped super early from a head-and-arm choke that was applied from the wrong side.

I don't think he intended to throw that kick, looked to me like he slipped and turned it into a kick.
Whatever no big deal he is 19 years old, he'll get better.

Good night so far. I won 55 on saffidene and accitently submited my 10 dollar bet on barberena three times so profited 70 on that.

Feeling lucky so placed 50 on barnet now :D

if you are in a really quiet place and pay attention, you can listen to some weird sounds from afar... those are Dana Whites howls of pain

Nice win for Jimmie Rivera.

He didn't look amazing, but he used the right game plan against a dangerous opponent.

Lol go rothwell!

Ship it!

Welp, this is my last betting card before my 4 month break due to my usual uni studies, so of course I lose every bet that mattered.

No bet on the main card, so I'll call it a day.

BIG BEEEEEEEEEEEN NICE :D

wow got raped in that fight

broke even in this event.

Put a good size bet on the over 1.5 rounds for the main event...

On January 23 2016 04:19 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On January 22 2016 19:02 PuertoRican wrote: Andrew Holbrook is injured, and is out of his fight against Sage Northcutt. Bryan Barberena will replace Holbrook. Barberena vs. Northcutt will be at welterweight, not lightweight. Barberena was originally scheduled to fight Jonavin Webb at welterweight on February 21, 2016. wait what? this is big imo. Barberena is no joke, no joke at all.

Knew it, i wish i did more DK teams with him.

On January 19 2016 16:00 alejandicto wrote: AJ by KO definitely (-245) and maybe Rothwell ITD (+271)

Fuck I didnt bet on Rothwell ITD : (

On January 30 2016 16:18 alejandicto wrote: Anthony Jhonson in round 1 (+170) looks great to me

I won some money at least

Northcutt's jiu jitsu is fucking bad wtf. Maybe he's just really nervous? He just rushes through everything.

I really like Barnett's standup lately, his guard is excellent I think... Too bad he went for that shot.

^^ northcutt doesn't have JBJ confidence yet. I think he'll still improve after this silly loss though

Ben Rothwell costs me money yet again. Can't believe that he was able to tap Barnett, stupid from Josh also to go for that takedown, while winning on the feet and it looked like almost completely ignored the threat from that choke.

Sage Northcutt got exposed , but the guy is still only 19 with ton of potential, so if he gets himself in a good camp I think the future is bright for him. I think he just panicked after the fight got rougher and gave up. He will learn from that loss, but his heart will always be questioned after tapping like this in halfguard.

Up a little bit from the event thanks to Rivera and Tarec. Feel a little stupid in hindsight that I didn't hammer Rumble at -230 at one point at betfair, but decided to pass on betting this fight. Bader performance was really bad, holding that kimura after getting his takedown stuffed for so long and getting mounted in the process was really terrible. I just don't understand wtf he was thinking.

On January 31 2016 10:45 TianYuan wrote: Northcutt's jiu jitsu is fucking bad wtf. Maybe he's just really nervous? He just rushes through everything. I really like Barnett's standup lately, his guard is excellent I think... Too bad he went for that shot.

Dunno, I watched him lose a grappling match to some 13 year old kid when Sage was 17, so two years ago. Just think his grappling isn't very good yet.

Didn't bet on Sage but had him in a cpl parlays and knew those were pretty fucked really early on as I watched Sage expend energy frantically in just the first and second minute on useless things like an inexperienced fighter does a lot. Like trying to jump on Barberana's back kind of from the side with no avenue to lock up a hold or anything. Obviously it was going to come up sooner or later that he'd be in a real fight where his athleticism doesn't just take out his opponent on the first cpl flurries but I didn't think he'd react/fight so poorly following his first realization that he can't outright control a fist fight within a minute.

Still 19 and so much time to be better. People seem to forget that Conor didn't come to the UFC and wreck shit as a 20 year old finished product. But you could never really question Conor's fighting mentality. Not so much here. Not just the quick tap. Few other things that stink of a kid just out there 'competing' in something because he's pretty good at it instead of fighting for his life. Was hoping for the UFC's sake that a killer of some sort was lying underneath that exterior but apparently not. Hopefully they do the right thing and keep him on the shelf for awhile and not just throw him back in there with bums that he'll take care of but won't learn anything from. He needs time to get his head straight, ditch his weird dad as his head trainer (I have no clue why fighters still do this. Never works in boxing, never works in MMA, never will work), and go learn and work out at a real, pro gym for awhile

On February 01 2016 04:08 iakim322 wrote: Didn't bet on Sage but had him in a cpl parlays and knew those were pretty fucked really early on as I watched Sage expend energy frantically in just the first and second minute on useless things like an inexperienced fighter does a lot. Like trying to jump on Barberana's back kind of from the side with no avenue to lock up a hold or anything. Obviously it was going to come up sooner or later that he'd be in a real fight where his athleticism doesn't just take out his opponent on the first cpl flurries but I didn't think he'd react/fight so poorly following his first realization that he can't outright control a fist fight within a minute. Still 19 and so much time to be better. People seem to forget that Conor didn't come to the UFC and wreck shit as a 20 year old finished product. But you could never really question Conor's fighting mentality. Not so much here. Not just the quick tap. Few other things that stink of a kid just out there 'competing' in something because he's pretty good at it instead of fighting for his life. Was hoping for the UFC's sake that a killer of some sort was lying underneath that exterior but apparently not. Hopefully they do the right thing and keep him on the shelf for awhile and not just throw him back in there with bums that he'll take care of but won't learn anything from. He needs time to get his head straight, ditch his weird dad as his head trainer (I have no clue why fighters still do this. Never works in boxing, never works in MMA, never will work), and go learn and work out at a real, pro gym for awhile

Joe & Enzo Calzaghe would beg to differ. And I think Felix Trinidad was coached by his father for most of his career (the successful parts at least)?

the most successful Boxer of our time is has also being coached by his father all his life...

Everybody discuss how Sage didn't live up to the hype

Why can't anyone consider Barberona was way underrated, and Sage's excuse of being sick was legit?

When Sage was facing Holbrok, i thought he was a decent bet, but as soon i saw his replacement, i knew Sage was an horrible bet.

On February 02 2016 03:15 Baalim wrote: the most successful Boxer of our time is has also being coached by his father all his life...

Forgot about that since he had some periods of being trained by Jeff and Roger Mayweather as well.

Zab Judah had a fairly successful career and was also trained by his father. Anyway, not super rare as we can see :0

Jeff barely trained Floyd. And that might be overstating it. His father did train and bring him up but he was gone by the time anyone even really knew who Floyd was. In the 12+ years that Floyd was in the spotlight, Roger was his only trainer for probably 10.5 of them. His father wasn't even apart of his team for a very long time and then started coming in and out...sometimes just to add extra hype to Floyd's pre-fight stuff. And then brought in 'full time' in more recent years when Floyd was basically training himself. Roger still family though obviously and they all have good credentials as trainers so good point I guess.

Enzo is the true legit one. Forgot about him. He actually had multiple legit successes beyond Joe and actually downplayed the father-son training dynamic if anything.

Most of Zab's high profile fights weren't with his father and besides, his father was/is borderline retarded. Trinidad is a decent one except...a little in hindsight...everyone in boxing was saying for years how he stunted his potential by not breaking off for a real trainer earlier instead of relying on the same thing (left hook KO gg) every fight.

For every one of these though, there were/are like eight others that failed miserably. I guess you can only truly say it about the fighters that actually have the potential for the top level because you'd likely never know there was a deficiency in some others. But well, at least physically...Sage can be up there. And his father so far reeks of that aging mother who sprints around the country toting her 6 yr old daughter at beauty contests.

Oh hey problem kinda solved.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/2/2/1...e-at-tristar-gym-following-ufc-on-fox


Oh and Danny Garcia + father is a modern day 'success' in boxing

All these father son comparisons in boxing are different. Most of those guys dads were legit boxers and legit trainers.

Most of the guys who have their dads train them in MMA, their dads taught them karate and they know fuck all about MMA and actual competition.

On February 04 2016 03:36 Stim_Abuser wrote: All these father son comparisons in boxing are different. Most of those guys dads were legit boxers and legit trainers. Most of the guys who have their dads train them in MMA, their dads taught them karate and they know fuck all about MMA and actual competition.

That's why I brought up Joe Calzhage since his dad was a jazz musician with 0 boxing knowledge but somehow decided he could learn how to coach boxing (and as it turns out, he was right)