UFC 193: Rousey vs. Holm - Page 2

I think Holm can win too, I think both Holm ML and the Over 1.5 bets are great.

Thank you Iakim for turning me onto the Nguyen v Benoit fight. I put a sizeable bet on Nguyen after watching their recent fights over and realizing Nguyen is a hometown guy that the UFC can def do something with and Benoit KO'd Pettis but was getting wrecked the whole fight, caught Pettis with a perfect but probably fairly fluky left hook in the pocket, and proceeded to literally kick him in the ass after the fight, inciting major boos from the crowd. This is a punishment fight in Australia for Benoit.

Benoit hits hard and could KO Nyguen who does get reckless when he has the other guy hurt but I don't see that being enough with the odds so close.

^ Benoit will have the wrestling advantage, and it's unlikely he'd get submitted by Nguyen if they were rolling on the ground. Benoit has a high school wrestling background, and he trained at Team Take Down for this fight, which is the best MMA gym in USA for wrestlers. His UFC profile says: "Three-time All-State high school wrestling champion in Texas," but I dunno what school he went to.

I'm still undecided on the fight.

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Nguyen:
- Better pure boxing
- Has good power
- He'll get hit less in boxing battles
- Has good movement


Benoit:
- Better wrestling
- Has good power
- He'll get hit more in boxing battles
- Not sure how well his offensive BJJ is, but I'm pretty sure his defensive BJJ is better
- Better training partners available to him at Janjira Muay Thai and Team Take Down
- Faced the better opponents, and is more proven in the cardio department

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On November 10 2015 11:13 northsails wrote: Ronda is not double- legging anybody. She sets up her takedowns in the clinch and all of them are judo throws and trips. The key for Holm to make this fight competitive is to avoid the clinch but that is nearly impossible for the duration of the whole fight. Pennington was able to get clinches with her, so I am pretty sure that Rousey is going to be able to do so as well. If she however is able to defend in the clinch and break free, the fight can get very interesting. Most likely she will no be able to do that and she will get tossed on her head and submitted fast. I am not going to be surprised if Ronda knocks her out also. I would love for Holly to derail the hype train, though. It has become pretty unbearable lately, especially after this Bethe Correia comedy show. I am also having big bets on Mark Hunt. Judging by the footage of his training camp he looks in very good shape, and Bigfoot is off the juice with his chin gone. I think still at the current odds it is a good bet.

Yeah true Ronda doesnt catch wrestle but the point still applies, Holm literally walks in with her combos and that will just facilitate the clinch.

I disagree on Ronda KO wouldnt be surprising, Rondas striking is very sloppy, her feet are all over the place, she jumps like an amateur trying to hit hard and frankly the only reason why she has KOd other girls is because they are awful and have no idea whatsoever about striking and probably shouldnt be on that level on the Octagon

On November 11 2015 10:13 northsails wrote: It looks good on the pads, but she is very easy to hit, doesn't posses good movement and her striking is really sloppy.

This reminds me of the Lex vs Elky fight, Lex warming up on the pads looked scary as fuck, then the fight started and he was sloppy as fuck but Elky is as athletic as C3P-O.

Not dissing Lex obv he still kicks my ass... or maybe not ?

I think ud take lex Baal, if mma rules u just drag him down, he's drawing nearly dead i think!!

Think im gonna place some bet for o 1.5 @ RR - HH since its +250 and RR s super over hyped after those fast finishes in a row , coef could possibly even go bigger i guess though

On November 13 2015 12:04 Spitfiree wrote: Think im gonna place some bet for o 1.5 @ RR - HH since its +250 and RR s super over hyped after those fast finishes in a row , coef could possibly even go bigger i guess though

I like it. I think were safe with the over despite it being a big underdog bet. I think this fight hits the latter part of the second round well over half the time. The o/u line is as bad as any of the others. Was obv worse at +300 where it was, smart money is coming in though.

Also, patting myself on the back for advising a Jake Mathews bet a couple weeks back and predicting that the line which was at -500 would end over -1000. I've seen it as high as -1200 now.

That's the skinniest Mark Hunt I've seen since ever

Gonna go see this event live with the mrs, gotta couple of bets down.

Partiularly I like tha joanna fight going over 2.5 rounds @ 2.20.

Felt like Ronda didn't look as good as she normally does. Just a little something off. Not sure if I'm just seeing stuff

On November 10 2015 21:40 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On November 10 2015 20:13 Minsk wrote: Thanks for the picks Soberstone. Holm's striking is overall superior to Rousey's, if she can keep the whole fight striking she should actually have an edge. I thought she might have a chance, but had a hard time believing it fully without other people saying that. I would certainly favor betting Holm over betting Rousey, but don't know how much of a chance she has. Wow, I think the O1.5 at 4.25 is excellent. She might not beat Rousey, but can very possibly be the first person to last over 1.5 rounds. Lets talk in this thread -__- First of all, Tate has already lasted until the 3rd. She could have probably made it the entire fight if she didn't keep shooting for takedowns and eventually break and quit. That fight is one of the key reasons I think RR is drastically over-rated. We got to see what Rousey looks like in between times of her opponents being absolute retards. And it wasn't pretty. I don't see O 1.5 at +425, I see it at +325, but I am tempted by it. I'd rather just play the over the first minute angle at -245, but I might do both. I dunno, my head says to play it but my heart says Holm won't be able to keep her off for 7.5 minutes. Here is a brief recap of Rousey's UFC fights and an honest assessment of what I've seen: Rousey vs Carmouche - Carmouche is absolutely terrible. She was able to take Rousey's back because Rousey was still doing that bullshit where she holds onto a headlock from side control after tossin a bitch (Carmouche uses her legs to squeak out and take Rousey's back). Absolutely terrible stuff from Rousey to let it get there, but she does the right thing, stands up, and calmly works Carmouche's hooks out and shakes her off because shes terrible and eventually armbars her. Fight showed that Rousey stays calm if things are not going her way, but shes far from invincible. Rousey v Tate II - On the feet, the fight was equal. Tate is very bad on the feet. For some absurd reason, Tate continuously shoots TD's on Rousey until she eventually gets armbarred. Fight shows that Rousey's cardio when grappling is absolutely endless and that her armbars are not inescapable if you are good (Tate defends successfully many times). The fight does not, however, show good overall cardio. My reasoning is that when you do something with perfect technique that you've been doing your whole life, you don't gas. When you are mediocre at something and use poor technique (Rousey striking) - you will gas if pushed. Tate threw her chance away by refusing to keep the distance and strike, but shes shitty so she probably loses either way. Rousey v McMann - Again, we see Rousey is bad on the feet but takes a punch very well (Mcmann tags her clean a couple times before they clinch), but this is where we see Rousey's clinch game go to the next level. McMann, is extremely strong, but Rousey just bullies her up against the fence and floors her with a knee to the body (bad stoppage IMO but w/e). Rousey's knees to the body in the clinch are absurdly good, and become her favorite weapon from this point forward. This fight shows that no matter who you are, Rousey will beat you not only on the ground, but in the clinch as well. She's too strong and fluid with her signature combination of overhands and knees to the body in the clinch. Rousey v Davis - This fight was a joke. Alexis Davis is so far away from being athletic enough to compete with Rousey. Additionally, David's strength is her top-position BJJ. Good luck with that. Davis stands flat-footed infront of Rousey, and we see the overhand right/clinch/knee/toss combo. Rousey's power in her right hand is officially legit, as this is actually what KO's Davis. After this, Davis fights Sarah Kaufman and gets tuned up for 2+ rounds before Kaufman Zingano's her way into getting arm-barred like a retard. Rousey v Zingano - Zingano is a retard. Hellen Keller would have made it longer. Rousey v Correira - Correira is so bad that she made Rousey's standup look legit to people who don't know what they are watching. I watched the entire fight in slow motion, and as with Davis and McMann, its the knees to the body in the clinch that are so effective. The over-hand right ends it. So, aside from the facts that Rousey's armbars are insane and no1 can out-grapple her once it hits the mat, what do we know from actual footage and not Hype? Rousey's clinch is also insane, her overhand right straight is really powerful, her knees to the body are her best striking weapon, shes tough as shit, and doesn't panic. We also know that her striking is terrible and limited at distance, she can't kick, she doesn't cut angles, and she relies on her athleticism/toughness to close distance. Now, Holly Holm is a very good defensive striker, has great lateral movement, is very disciplined with keeping distance, and doesn't rush even if the crowd is booing. She is also southpaw, meaning Rousey's right straight can't even come close to landing unless they are in the clinch. She has also shown that she is really strong in breaking the clinch (just watch her toss Reneau on her ass like a school child when she tries to pull guard). So why the fuck is everybody so convinced this is a squash match? I have no idea. The only reason Rousey should be a fairly large favorite (and the reason I am betting her by sub) is that Holm can fight a perfect fight for 90+ percent of the time, but all it takes is that quick fuck-up, and shes done. Meanwhile, Rousey can fight a terrible fight for 90+ percent of the time and still win. But my point is, most people are just sheep being herded into the "Rousey is like the Ali of our time" camp by the UFC, and it's gross and pathetic. Joe Rogan makes me want to vomit when he talks about RR. She's only special because WMMA is terrible at 135 lbs, she is extremely marketable, and timing is everything. She is Royce Gracie, not GSP, so lets see if Holly Holm is Sakuraba.

Cliffnotes: Girls are bad at MMA?

On November 13 2015 22:39 iakim322 wrote: Felt like Ronda didn't look as good as she normally does. Just a little something off. Not sure if I'm just seeing stuff

She looked the same to me. The only thing that was off was her WWF/WWE professional wrestling style of speech she gave to Joe Rogan. Obviously fake as fuck. She's trying to build a little hype since Holly is calm and hasn't said nor did anything negative.

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Ronda Rousey (134) vs. Holly Holm (134) – for women’s bantamweight title
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (114) vs. Valerie Letourneau (115) – for strawweight title
Mark Hunt (265) vs. Antonio Silva (263)
Uriah Hall (185) vs. Robert Whittaker (185)
Jared Rosholt (239) vs. Stefan Struve (265)
Akbarh Arreola (155) vs. Jake Matthews (155)
Kyle Noke (169) vs. Peter Sobotta (169)
Anthony Perosh (205) vs. Gian Villante (205)
Danny Martinez (125) vs. Richie Vaculik (125)
Daniel Kelly (185) vs. Steve Montgomery (185)
Steven Kennedy (169) vs. Richard Walsh (170)
James Moontasri (170) vs. Anton Zafir (170)
Ryan Benoit (125) vs. Ben Nguyen (126)

Rousey was shook. I see doubt in Rousey (not a psychologist but stayed at a Holiday Inn express last night). Loved that weigh-in tho.

And LOL @ JohnnyCosmo, I guess that's a fair way to sum it up.

Pre-Card Bets:

Straight
Holm > Rousey SU 1,050 $115.00
Holm/Rousey Over 1.5 Rds O/U 290 $50.00
Hall > Whittitaker SU -125 $156.00
Steve Montomery > Daniel Kelly SU -250 $212.50
Ben Nguyen > Ryan Benoit SU -145 $290.00

Prop:
Rousey via Sub PROP -270 $535.00
Rousey Does Not Win in 0:01 - 1:00 of Round 1 PROP -245 $245.00
Holm wins in Rd 3 PROP 4,100 $20.00
Holm wins in Rd 4 PROP 5,200 $20.00
Jedrzejczyk wins ITD PROP -257 $257.00
Hunt Wins ITD PROP -182 $91.00
Hunt Wins in Round 1 PROP 110 $100.00
Hall > Whiitaker (SCORECARDS = NO ACTION) PROP -180 $180.00
Struve by Submission PROP -300 $25.00 (Added mid-event)
Perosh wins ITD PROP 489 $50.00

Parlay:
Hunt (-275) + Hall (-145) + Walsch (-340) + Ngyuen (-145) PL 404 $50.00
Jake Mathews (-505) + Gian Villante (-305) PL -169 $500.00
Jedrzejczyk ITD (-265) + Mathews (-660) + Villante (-330) PL 125 $217.51
Jedrzejczyk ITD (-257) + Richard Walsch (-350) PL -122 $200.00

I don't understand. Did I miss something? Or why try so hard now ? Obviously Rousey was fake as fuck, but why try to build the hype now - 1 day before the fight ?! Seems so superficial. Is there a real possibility that she s indeed shook?

I mean you wanna build a fight? Do it like McGregor - go on a massive press conference between all champs or champ contenders tell current champ that he s a pussy, tell all other champs that they are brokeass niggas compared to him. If you gonna do it at least do it properly wow

On November 13 2015 23:28 Spitfiree wrote: I don't understand. Did I miss something? Or why try so hard now ? Obviously Rousey was fake as fuck, but why try to build the hype now - 1 day before the fight ?! Seems so superficial. Is there a real possibility that she s indeed shook? I mean you wanna build a fight? Do it like McGregor - go on a massive press conference between all champs or champ contenders tell current champ that he s a pussy, tell all other champs that they are brokeass niggas compared to him. If you gonna do it at least do it properly wow

That wasn't scripted or planned. I'm 100 percent with you. Genuine emotion vs fake bs isn't hard to decypher when it comes to watching Ronda Rousey. I don't think she's shook because she's afraid of Holly Holm. But I do feel like the mainstream media, the obligations, the weight cut, this being a potentially tough fight, her coach going bankrupt, her mom saying her coach is a terrible person, Holm being super calm, etc etc. is clearly taking its tole.

Ronda sounded like a menopausal nutjob when she was calling Holly Holm fake and was on the verge of tears. There is not much fake about Holly Holm from what I've gathered. She doesn't play that shit. She's just a silent hardworking girl who takes great pride in trying to be the best she can be and that includes believing in yourself. Ronda is offended by the mere fact that someone coming into fight her actually believes she can win, unlike the other soccer moms Ronda has tooled. It's hilarious.

All that said, its not a bad thing that the weigh-in scrum probably netted 100k more buys.

Yeah what seemed off for me was that she really was all over the place and kinda stumbling in her WWE speech stuff when usually she's very good...or at least confident with it. Agree with stone and was already going to say that maybe all the outside pressure is finally starting to get to her. It really is a lot of pressure on her to keep up that intensity she has while dealing with some bullshit like 'what if she doesn't do a million ppvs!' along with her trainer/mom stuff etc. And maybe it was just me but she didn't seem quite as toned as before (I know she doesn't show up ripped or anything at fight night but she usually kinda is at weigh-ins) but not like that really matters.