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UFC 193: Rousey vs. Holm

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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 09 2015 04:22. Posts 13030

Date: Saturday, November 14th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:15 LP.net / 3:15pm PST / 6:15pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Ronda Rousey (12-0) vs. Holly Holm (9-0) (Women's Bantamweight Championship)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-0) vs. Valerie Letourneau (8-3) (Women's Strawweight Championship)
Mark Hunt (10-10-1) vs. Antonio Silva (19-7-1) (Heavyweight)
Robert Whittaker (14-4) vs. Uriah Hall (12-5) (Middleweight)
Stefan Struve (26-7) vs. Jared Rosholt (13-2) (Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Jake Matthews (8-1) vs. Akbarh Arreola (23-9-1) (Lightweight)
Kyle Noke (21-7-1) vs. Peter Sobotta (15-4-1) (Welterweight)
Anthony Perosh (15-9) vs. Gian Villante (13-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Richie Vaculik (10-3) vs. Danny Martinez (17-7) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Anton Zafir (7-1) vs. James Moontasri (8-3) (Welterweight)
Richard Walsh (8-3) vs. Steve Kennedy (22-7) (Welterweight)
Dan Kelly (9-1) vs. Steve Montgomery (8-3) (Middleweight)
Ben Nguyen (13-5) vs. Ryan Benoit (8-3) (Flyweight)

Other

- Brazilian fighters, William Macario and Ricardo Abreu were expected to face Brendan O'Reilly and Daniel Kelly respectively at the event. However, both fighters pulled out of their bouts in late September citing injury and were replaced by James Moontasri and Steve Montgomery. In turn, O'Reilly pulled out of his bout on November 6 citing an injury and was replaced by Anton Zafir.
- Michael Bisping was expected to face Robert Whittaker at the event. However, Bisping pulled out of the bout on September 30 citing an elbow injury and was replaced by Uriah Hall.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 09 2015 04:25. Posts 13030

First impression of the match-ups:

• Rousey > Holm
• JJ > Letourneau
• Hunt > Bigfoot
• Hall > Whittaker
• Struve > Rosholt
• Matthews > Arreola
• Noke > Sobotta
• Villante > Perosh
• Vaculik > Martinez
• Moontasri > Zafir
• Walsh > Kennedy
• Montgomery > Kelly
• Nguyen > Benoit

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Nov 09 2015 05:41. Posts 2662

Thanks for thread

Really excited for this card, I think its ripe for betting, especially some of the props on the chick fights and some squash matches on the card.

I agree with every single pick so no need to post those, nice picks mate. A lot of money down this week.

For Rousey vs Holm, 2 obvious scenarios exist at a much higher probability than the rest.

A) Most likely scenario - The fight will be a back and forth battle for a little where Rousey eats some shots to give some harder shots, powers into the clinch with Holm stuck against the fence, blisters her with knees to the body and over-hand rights, tosses or trips Holm, and subs Holm with an armbar variation. I do not think this will happen in the first minute, I think it will actually take Ronda some time, maybe multiple rounds.

B) In a lower probability scenario, but much higher than the odds indicate, we get to find out that Ronda Rousey completely sucks if she can't get you in the clinch (completely possible), and ends up getting picked apart for the majority of the fight or even gets finished late if she gasses (completely possible) via left high kick and the entire RR hype train is derailed. I would personally love to see this happen but obviously have my doubts.

Bets:

+ Show Spoiler +










 Last edit: 14/11/2015 00:10

MysticJoey   Poland. Nov 09 2015 13:06. Posts 1430

I think Rosholt > Struve, Sobotta > Noke


PuertoRican   United States. Nov 10 2015 03:34. Posts 13030



Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 10/11/2015 07:33

iakim322   United States. Nov 10 2015 10:41. Posts 1335

Really like Hunt for reasonable odds even though I felt that way the first time too. I get that Silva was juiced as f in that fight but I think I remember his length seeming to bother Hunt a bit and Hunt's chin being lit up recently are bits of downers but recent silva is just so terrible and slow. That last fight with Palelei was embarrassing.

Going to like the over on Ronda's fight. Think Holly's movement can frustrate Ronda early a bit though with no actual threat. Ronda's chin will hold up even if she gets tagged and eventually catch Holly's movement and obviously shortly over after. Also think people will overstate how aggressively Ronda comes out to start this time.

Don't know much about Whitaker. Thoughts on him vs Hall?


iakim322   United States. Nov 10 2015 10:44. Posts 1335

By reasonable I mean I think -250 odds are great for someone of Hunt's skill against a walking mummy


PuertoRican   United States. Nov 10 2015 10:57. Posts 13030


  On November 10 2015 09:44 iakim322 wrote:
Whittaker



Whittaker has striking skills and is way more aggressive than Hall, but aggression will be his downfall. Staying back and fighting from the outside isn't Whittaker's style.

Whittaker doesn't have a weak chin, but it's not the strongest. I expect him to get clipped by Hall as he's coming forward.

If Whittaker does win, I think it's by decision.

Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Nov 10 2015 10:58. Posts 34246

A boxer the level of Holm with that athleticism and strong legs in theory should be a nightmare to Ronda however Holm style is seem pretty shitty to me, she is very good at circling and that might be key when Ronda rushes (she will rush, she hasnt met an oponent that forces her to actually set up her her takedowns properly) however Holm literally walks in with her combos when she is attacking, and ronda is going to double-leg her so easily if she does, sounds easy to avoid but she has been doing it all her life.

I think the fight will be very interesting and strategical, Holm shouldnt be pressed easily against the cage and in theory should do well against an aggro Ronda, but if Ronda takes it slow Holm will probably be too scared to kick her, she probably should just jab and jab and jab and bust her face up kind of how Mousasi vs Latiffi went.

Obviously the bad thing here is that if Holm goes to the ground she will probably lose and its very hard to not concede a single takedown in a fight

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

northsails   Bulgaria. Nov 10 2015 12:13. Posts 410

Ronda is not double- legging anybody. She sets up her takedowns in the clinch and all of them are judo throws and trips.

The key for Holm to make this fight competitive is to avoid the clinch but that is nearly impossible for the duration of the whole fight. Pennington was able to get clinches with her, so I am pretty sure that Rousey is going to be able to do so as well. If she however is able to defend in the clinch and break free, the fight can get very interesting.

Most likely she will no be able to do that and she will get tossed on her head and submitted fast. I am not going to be surprised if Ronda knocks her out also.

I would love for Holly to derail the hype train, though. It has become pretty unbearable lately, especially after this Bethe Correia comedy show.


I am also having big bets on Mark Hunt. Judging by the footage of his training camp he looks in very good shape, and Bigfoot is off the juice with his chin gone. I think still at the current odds it is a good bet.


soberstone   United States. Nov 10 2015 18:43. Posts 2662


  On November 10 2015 09:41 iakim322 wrote:
Really like Hunt for reasonable odds even though I felt that way the first time too. I get that Silva was juiced as f in that fight but I think I remember his length seeming to bother Hunt a bit and Hunt's chin being lit up recently are bits of downers but recent silva is just so terrible and slow. That last fight with Palelei was embarrassing.

Going to like the over on Ronda's fight. Think Holly's movement can frustrate Ronda early a bit though with no actual threat. Ronda's chin will hold up even if she gets tagged and eventually catch Holly's movement and obviously shortly over after. Also think people will overstate how aggressively Ronda comes out to start this time.

Don't know much about Whitaker. Thoughts on him vs Hall?



Agreed on your assessment of Hunt vs Bigfoot. It should be similar to a Vitor/Hendo situation in dynamic (not in practice, I understand there isn't gonna be a left high-kick, I just mean the pathetic KO during the 1st or 2nd real exchange). I just bet ITD/first rd prop because if it goes out of the first, round and a half, something weird is going on and I really don't feel like sweating a decision based on a weird ass fight. Probably should have just bet it straight but I'd rather risk less money and lose then bet it straight and hope to win if the fight is not how I see it.

Whittaker's best chance, I agree with Rican, is a decision. That's why I bet Hall with the No-Scorecards prop as well as straight. Love the No Scorecards prop for fights like these where Whittaker can feasibly win a Leonard Garcia/Diego Sanchez type decision where he loses the fight but throws a lot more volume and wins a BS decision in his hometown which will presumably be very loud if he flurries and lands anything. If he KO's Hall, it will be very random.

As for Rousey vs Holm, Northsails hit it on the head. Rousey isn't double-legging Holly Holm. Not a chance. It's either gonna be clinch/toss or trip, either off a sloppy punching entry, or maybe catching a poorly timed kick. Also, noteworthy, Ronda literally can't kick (she just doesn't kick at all) so Holm can circle with impunity. It's really just a matter of how good Holly's ability to break out of the clinch is. Based on her athleticism, discipline, and training camp, I know it will be good, I just doubt it will be good enough to do it consistently and without taking damage. I really doubt Holm gets KO'd tho. If Ronda rocks her, it will still end up in a submission. I don't think Rousey is gonna have a trend of Mark Hunting people - Betche Corriera was just an absolute joke with no defesne. If Rousey is that aggressive and sloppy, she'll get matador-ed and tagged few times and will realize that she needs to set up her entries a little bit. That's why I love the over 1 minute.

Also, one fight no1 seems to be talking about but I have my biggest bets on (combined) is JJ ITD at -260ish. This is absolutely absurd to me. She is going to end this bitch. V. Lat. is tough and will probably last 2 or 3 rounds, but her face is going to be so mangled and she is going to get so wrecked that I can't for the life of me imagine her lasting 5 rounds. That would shock me.

I regret betting so much on Villante, I shouldn't be trusting that much money on a guy who gassed and lost to Fabio Maldanado, but he did also KO Corey Anderson and has not been finished by some really dangerous guys like OSP. And hes fighting the Hippo, who is now 43 years old.

Jake Mathews is going to absolutely destroy Arreola, thats the Corey Anderson vs Maldano fight of this card, but its probably not bettable now at -900. I bet him at -500 and posted about it in one of the last two threads and said he'd end up over -1000, its just a squash match.

Finally, Patrick Walsch should destroy Steve Kennedy and Steve Montgomery should destroy Dan Kelly. Dan Kelly is really, really, really, really, bad.





 Last edit: 10/11/2015 19:01

soberstone   United States. Nov 10 2015 22:40. Posts 2662


  On November 10 2015 20:13 Minsk wrote:
Thanks for the picks Soberstone.

Holm's striking is overall superior to Rousey's, if she can keep the whole fight striking she should actually have an edge. I thought she might have a chance, but had a hard time believing it fully without other people saying that. I would certainly favor betting Holm over betting Rousey, but don't know how much of a chance she has.

Wow, I think the O1.5 at 4.25 is excellent. She might not beat Rousey, but can very possibly be the first person to last over 1.5 rounds.



Lets talk in this thread -__-

First of all, Tate has already lasted until the 3rd. She could have probably made it the entire fight if she didn't keep shooting for takedowns and eventually break and quit. That fight is one of the key reasons I think RR is drastically over-rated. We got to see what Rousey looks like in between times of her opponents being absolute retards. And it wasn't pretty.

I don't see O 1.5 at +425, I see it at +325, but I am tempted by it. I'd rather just play the over the first minute angle at -245, but I might do both. I dunno, my head says to play it but my heart says Holm won't be able to keep her off for 7.5 minutes.

Here is a brief recap of Rousey's UFC fights and an honest assessment of what I've seen:

Rousey vs Carmouche - Carmouche is absolutely terrible. She was able to take Rousey's back because Rousey was still doing that bullshit where she holds onto a headlock from side control after tossin a bitch (Carmouche uses her legs to squeak out and take Rousey's back). Absolutely terrible stuff from Rousey to let it get there, but she does the right thing, stands up, and calmly works Carmouche's hooks out and shakes her off because shes terrible and eventually armbars her. Fight showed that Rousey stays calm if things are not going her way, but shes far from invincible.

Rousey v Tate II - On the feet, the fight was equal. Tate is very bad on the feet. For some absurd reason, Tate continuously shoots TD's on Rousey until she eventually gets armbarred. Fight shows that Rousey's cardio when grappling is absolutely endless and that her armbars are not inescapable if you are good (Tate defends successfully many times). The fight does not, however, show good overall cardio. My reasoning is that when you do something with perfect technique that you've been doing your whole life, you don't gas. When you are mediocre at something and use poor technique (Rousey striking) - you will gas if pushed. Tate threw her chance away by refusing to keep the distance and strike, but shes shitty so she probably loses either way.

Rousey v McMann - Again, we see Rousey is bad on the feet but takes a punch very well (Mcmann tags her clean a couple times before they clinch), but this is where we see Rousey's clinch game go to the next level. McMann, is extremely strong, but Rousey just bullies her up against the fence and floors her with a knee to the body (bad stoppage IMO but w/e). Rousey's knees to the body in the clinch are absurdly good, and become her favorite weapon from this point forward. This fight shows that no matter who you are, Rousey will beat you not only on the ground, but in the clinch as well. She's too strong and fluid with her signature combination of overhands and knees to the body in the clinch.

Rousey v Davis - This fight was a joke. Alexis Davis is so far away from being athletic enough to compete with Rousey. Additionally, David's strength is her top-position BJJ. Good luck with that. Davis stands flat-footed infront of Rousey, and we see the overhand right/clinch/knee/toss combo. Rousey's power in her right hand is officially legit, as this is actually what KO's Davis. After this, Davis fights Sarah Kaufman and gets tuned up for 2+ rounds before Kaufman Zingano's her way into getting arm-barred like a retard.

Rousey v Zingano - Zingano is a retard. Hellen Keller would have made it longer.

Rousey v Correira - Correira is so bad that she made Rousey's standup look legit to people who don't know what they are watching. I watched the entire fight in slow motion, and as with Davis and McMann, its the knees to the body in the clinch that are so effective. The over-hand right ends it.

So, aside from the facts that Rousey's armbars are insane and no1 can out-grapple her once it hits the mat, what do we know from actual footage and not Hype? Rousey's clinch is also insane, her overhand right straight is really powerful, her knees to the body are her best striking weapon, shes tough as shit, and doesn't panic. We also know that her striking is terrible and limited at distance, she can't kick, she doesn't cut angles, and she relies on her athleticism/toughness to close distance.

Now, Holly Holm is a very good defensive striker, has great lateral movement, is very disciplined with keeping distance, and doesn't rush even if the crowd is booing. She is also southpaw, meaning Rousey's right straight can't even come close to landing unless they are in the clinch. She has also shown that she is really strong in breaking the clinch (just watch her toss Reneau on her ass like a school child when she tries to pull guard). So why the fuck is everybody so convinced this is a squash match? I have no idea.

The only reason Rousey should be a fairly large favorite (and the reason I am betting her by sub) is that Holm can fight a perfect fight for 90+ percent of the time, but all it takes is that quick fuck-up, and shes done. Meanwhile, Rousey can fight a terrible fight for 90+ percent of the time and still win.

But my point is, most people are just sheep being herded into the "Rousey is like the Ali of our time" camp by the UFC, and it's gross and pathetic. Joe Rogan makes me want to vomit when he talks about RR. She's only special because WMMA is terrible at 135 lbs, she is extremely marketable, and timing is everything. She is Royce Gracie, not GSP, so lets see if Holly Holm is Sakuraba.








 Last edit: 10/11/2015 22:47

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 11 2015 00:44. Posts 13030

I actually like o1.5 rounds at that price, as I think it's going to round 3. Not cuz Holm is good, but because Holm has nothing to hurt Ronda with aside from a head kick.

Ronda can out-strike Holly in terms of volume, and she can clinch whenever she wants. Ronda used to just walk/run into her opponents to clinch, now she throws a punch combo and her opponents will always get grabbed at aome point.

Holly's best MMA skill is her movement, not her striking, imo. It's just a matter of when does Ronda want to take her down, not if she will.

Regarding the JJ/Val fight, it'll go o2.5 rounds, imo. Val said it herself that she gets punched once and her skin instantly shows the damage. I'm thinking a 4th round doctor stoppage due to not being able to see out of one swollen eye, or possibly a cut.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 11/11/2015 00:45

iakim322   United States. Nov 11 2015 05:36. Posts 1335


  On November 10 2015 17:43 soberstone wrote:

Also, one fight no1 seems to be talking about but I have my biggest bets on (combined) is JJ ITD at -260ish. This is absolutely absurd to me. She is going to end this bitch. V. Lat. is tough and will probably last 2 or 3 rounds, but her face is going to be so mangled and she is going to get so wrecked that I can't for the life of me imagine her lasting 5 rounds. That would shock me.

I regret betting so much on Villante, I shouldn't be trusting that much money on a guy who gassed and lost to Fabio Maldanado, but he did also KO Corey Anderson and has not been finished by some really dangerous guys like OSP. And hes fighting the Hippo, who is now 43 years old.

Jake Mathews is going to absolutely destroy Arreola, thats the Corey Anderson vs Maldano fight of this card, but its probably not bettable now at -900. I bet him at -500 and posted about it in one of the last two threads and said he'd end up over -1000, its just a squash match.

Finally, Patrick Walsch should destroy Steve Kennedy and Steve Montgomery should destroy Dan Kelly. Dan Kelly is really, really, really, really, bad.





Damn. Was going to use Dan Kelly as my hail mary underdog on DK just because I think Steve Montgomery sucks too but I guess you swayed me out of it.

180% agree on not wanting to trust a lot of money on Villante even though the matchup looks ridiculously easy. Villante is a 'wtf loss' waiting to happen every other minute when he's in the cage. Pass for me.

Going to tail the JJ ITD. Was going to anyways (got to have a piece. Favorite fighter to watch since late Strikeforce, early UFC Nick Diaz) but just wanted to wait a bit to find out more about Valerie. Still haven't seen her last fight with Moroz. All I know is that she's tough. But I guess tough doesn't prevent a stoppage once your face becomes a blood pancake

I think you may be underestimating how athletically superior Ronda is when you say she's only so great because her competition is so bad. I too get annoyed by the UFC's retarded hype machine but for me, once I saw her chin tested multiple times...I was just like...gg everyone else. Yeah her striking can be real sloppy but she has real power when she does land and it doesn't have to be as technical as you'd think for her standup to effect her opponent since Ronda's striking is enhanced due to her opponent almost constantly having to flinch to guard against the judo clinch takedown. Also am a believer in not only her chin, but her heart to get out of trouble in fights even if we haven't really seen terrible situations for her yet. Don't think we yet know the person who will eventually beat her. Really like Holly's movement like PR said and as said before...don't think Ronda is going to come out like a bull vs Holly and if she does...agree with you that Holly can play matador to Ronda for awhile which is why I'm going to love the over. Just don't think that translates into any threat at all of actually losing for Ronda.



iakim322   United States. Nov 11 2015 05:45. Posts 1335

'Rousey v Correira - Correira is so bad that she made Rousey's standup look legit to people who don't know what they are watching.'


+1+1+1. Not that I think it matters too much in my thoughts vs Holm because I already knew this but yeah...I watched that Correia fight with a bunch of casuals as I will be again this weekend (RR brings in them casuals like no other) and they were immediately like omfg RR is superwoman!! Meanwhile, my first thought even halfway through that 30 seconds was that Ronda was being ridiculously sloppy.

But again, don't see anyone to beat her.


northsails   Bulgaria. Nov 11 2015 11:13. Posts 410

I agree that Rousey stand up is vastly overrated. It looks good on the pads, but she is very easy to hit, doesn't posses good movement and her striking is really sloppy. However she has big power in her punches and given the fact that Holm was tagged multiple times against Pennington and will be wary of takedowns I can see Ronda sneaking in a overhand right and hurting her.

I already cringe at the non sense that will come out of Joe Rogan's mouth if that happens.


PuertoRican   United States. Nov 12 2015 00:45. Posts 13030




Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 12/11/2015 05:52

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Nov 12 2015 01:25. Posts 9634

soberstone what do you expect. RR s probably the one making most money for the UFC, even if she isn't the top1 she s definitely right behind McGregor, at times where MMA goes really mainstream . You know that when even sites like 9gag are full of UFC stuff after every event. They have to be mad or retarded to not make her look like a goddess in every aspect - its the perfect strategy, and if she loses one day the winner won't even have to be promoted that much cause of RR's fame

 Last edit: 12/11/2015 01:26

soberstone   United States. Nov 12 2015 06:08. Posts 2662


  On November 12 2015 00:25 Spitfiree wrote:
soberstone what do you expect. RR s probably the one making most money for the UFC, even if she isn't the top1 she s definitely right behind McGregor, at times where MMA goes really mainstream . You know that when even sites like 9gag are full of UFC stuff after every event. They have to be mad or retarded to not make her look like a goddess in every aspect - its the perfect strategy, and if she loses one day the winner won't even have to be promoted that much cause of RR's fame



I completely agree. I have no issue with Rousey's promotion, its smart by her and everyone around her. Quid pro quo. I just think her career has been kinda less cool than its made out to be. Call me a snob I guess. I also really like Holm's personality, I find her to actually be more genuine and likeable. Obviously I'm in the minority.


northsails   Bulgaria. Nov 12 2015 15:36. Posts 410


  Everything in this fight favors Holm if she can just avoid Rousey's early, wild rushes.


http://fightland.vice.com/blog/the-ni...pions-can-joanna-steal-rondas-thunder

Reading through that it seems like Jack Slack is picking Holm for the upset.


 
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