UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2

Sad for barao. I like him, but he is as delusional as i was when i was hoping that he would win this fight. Dillashaw is a level above him at striking, way more technical and accurate, plus he has the wrestling adv. I was hoping "no autopilot" barao would be quicker but now i realize if they fought 10 times tj would come out the winner 10 times. Maybe theres room for a lucky punch. Im hoping he gets a reality check and tries to improve somehow.

Wow. I thought Dillashaw's cardio looked really suspect compared to before.... but fuck it, ship it. Odds were so off, even a shittier looking version of TJ destroyed a fading Renan. Poor bastard and than Herb lets him get raped against the cage for what felt like an eternity.

+$490.66 on the night.

YTD: +3266.46

+ Show Spoiler +

On July 25 2015 23:07 PuertoRican wrote: Saunders with the robbery win, but I'll take it. My asshole is still healing up from getting raped in that Nijem decision loss.

Dude WTF was up with that decision. I didn't have money on it like you so I'm sorry, that was fucking terrible

On July 26 2015 02:20 gebbstet wrote: omg how did barao not go down from those punches

I arguably think the fight was stopped early. Barao did not look good, but he was throwing punches. I feel this was WAY less bad than what happened to Mark Hunt Against Miocic. Hunt was eating way stronger punched and defending even less, and they weren't stopping it.

That being said, he was done, Dean saved him damage that is all.

On July 26 2015 02:22 PuertoRican wrote: Good performance by Dillashaw. Good, but not great. He was standing still a lot, just poking at Barao instead of doing his normal style of attack against a stationary target. As for Barao, he was gassed in round 2, so he was a sitting duck for almost 2-full rounds. He needs to move up in weight now. Overall, there was some decent fights on the card, but not an amazing card.

Because beating Aldo/Mendes/Conor/Edgar will be so much more easier....
I think he's better in his #1 rank bantanweight he is right now.

On July 26 2015 02:36 Raidern wrote: Sad for barao. I like him, but he is as delusional as i was when i was hoping that he would win this fight. Dillashaw is a level above him at striking, way more technical and accurate, plus he has the wrestling adv. I was hoping "no autopilot" barao would be quicker but now i realize if they fought 10 times tj would come out the winner 10 times. Maybe theres room for a lucky punch. Im hoping he gets a reality check and tries to improve somehow.

Barao did land some lucky power punches, but Dillashaw smiled =(

Barao either needs to retire or move up for sure. Unquestionably. He'll never be a champion again regardless, never again starve your body and get concussed, please.

Soberstone i can't believe your up for the night. Me and PuertoRicain both got killed, and the betting site i read, everyone got murdered tonight.

Do you have skype?

I'm def not as good as you, but i'm starting to think my really low win rate recently can be a good tool!!! I should bet the opposite of what i think, PROFIT!

On July 26 2015 03:17 Floofy wrote: Soberstone i can't believe your up for the night. Me and PuertoRicain both got killed, and the betting site i read, everyone got murdered tonight. Do you have skype? I'm def not as good as you, but i'm starting to think my really low win rate recently can be a good tool!!! I should bet the opposite of what i think, PROFIT!

Tonight was kind of lucky to be honest because I missed on a ton of fights and cheap parlays but hit on the Lawler KO prop at +1000 and Dillashaw rd 4 ko prop (not as lucky, I really thought this was a strong possibility as I wrote before) at +1200. Plus my big bets were on Dillashaw and Lauzon (got him at pre-line movement which helped a lot).

I don't have Skype but I'll DL it, pm me your user name

Free Stitch!

Threw 100 on lauzon tate dillashaw parlay so made a bit on top of straight bet on lauzon. But lost my bet on felder. Need to branch out from bovada for prop access

The #1 way I've been succeeding is beating line movement, so I'm hopping on next weeks card early and will progress as the lines move, I study the fights, and props come out, especially for hedging.

319500287-1 7/26/15 12:15am $150.00 $136.07 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

Gadelha is going to beat Aguilar IMO, she's far far better. Its Joanna Champion, her, and then everyone else. And Aguilar's bread and butter is her grappling.... doubt she out grapples Gadelha.

Rousey by submission at -260? WTF. Love it. Her KO of McMann was an early stoppage and that Alexis Davis KO was awesome but like, how many times do you KO somebody slamming them. I think it was spectacular but not likely to happen anytime soon. So really, we've got 2 flukyish (arguable, but that's my take) KO's and a girl who has ambarred everyone else she's faced in less than a round besides Meisha, vs a striker who is levels upon levels below Rousey in the clinch and on the ground. How is a submission at -260. I see it as a much bigger favorite than that..... like almost a foregone conclusion.

Also, Lil Nog as a +150 dog to Shogun? Why? I think this line sharpens, and rightfully so, that's a pickem fight at first glance. Shogun is a shot fighter, and I'm sure Lil Nog is too but getting blasted by Anthony Johnson after beating Rashad Evans and KOing Ortiz is much more impressive than anything Shogun has done since Jon Jones took his soul.

319501226-1 7/26/15 12:26am $40.00 $60.00 Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +150* vs Mauricio Rua

More parlays with a mixture of the above:

319501172-1 7/26/15 12:24am $30.00 $54.46 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Soa Palelei -210* vs Antonio Silva
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

319501214-1 7/26/15 12:26am $30.00 $341.89 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +150* vs Mauricio Rua
Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1502 Antonio Silva +160* vs Soa Palelei
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

Barao set a very high pace in the beginning and that was the reason I believe that TJ cardio looked suspect compared to before. He looked even better than the last fight imo. The guy keeps improving and his movement and striking are joy to watch. Lets hope that Cruz stays healthy because a fight with TJ should be great.

btw Herb Dean is the most overrated referee in the game . Pathetic late stoppage .

On July 26 2015 11:54 northsails wrote: Barao set a very high pace in the beginning and that was the reason I believe that TJ cardio looked suspect compared to before. He looked even better than the last fight imo. The guy keeps improving and his movement and striking are joy to watch. Lets hope that Cruz stays healthy because a fight with TJ should be great. btw Herb Dean is the most overrated referee in the game . Pathetic late stoppage .

I disagree. Barao was very clearly trying to defend. If Barao wanted it stopped he wouldn't have acted the way he did. He actually seemed pissed of the early stoppage.
This is def not on the level of Hunt vs Miocic

On July 26 2015 04:20 soberstone wrote: 319501172-1 7/26/15 12:24am $30.00 $54.46 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Soa Palelei -210* vs Antonio Silva Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result 319501214-1 7/26/15 12:26am $30.00 $341.89 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +150* vs Mauricio Rua Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1502 Antonio Silva +160* vs Soa Palelei Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

100% agree on Gadelha man. I would personally even bet on her against Joanna if the odds are good.

On July 26 2015 14:19 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On July 26 2015 11:54 northsails wrote: Barao set a very high pace in the beginning and that was the reason I believe that TJ cardio looked suspect compared to before. He looked even better than the last fight imo. The guy keeps improving and his movement and striking are joy to watch. Lets hope that Cruz stays healthy because a fight with TJ should be great. btw Herb Dean is the most overrated referee in the game . Pathetic late stoppage . I disagree. Barao was very clearly trying to defend. If Barao wanted it stopped he wouldn't have acted the way he did. He actually seemed pissed of the early stoppage. This is def not on the level of Hunt vs Miocic

This is not a fight to death. Barao was out on his feet and ate 10 more punches. He was dominated the entire fight and barely survived round 3. He was done.

And if I remember correctly you were defending the Hunt vs Miocic stoppage as well.

It was pretty clear to me yesterday that Herb Dean has some serious second guessing issues right now.

He had terribly early stoppages in the Faber v Barao II (where Faber had his thumb up and was blocking Barao's shots) and Rousey vs McMann (basically, I hate to say this, a gender-based stoppage where McMann falls to a body shot and he INSTANTLY steps in.... never would have happened in a male fight, ever....)

Some people were criticizing his McGregor over Mendes stoppage, which I thought was fine, but still added to the narrative that Herb is stopping fights too soon....

So now, he watches Gomi get blasted unconscious and can't even pull the trigger on the stoppage until Lauzon just walks away.... than he let's Barao take 5+ completely unnecessary, clean shots to his auto-pilot body that's being held up by the fence, and this right after the end of round 3 where everyone and their mother knew Barao was already done.... just bad stuff.

I'm ready to call Herb Dean a poor ref at this point. A good ref isn't going to second guess himself due to the past and that's exactly what I see happening.

Added more bets on Rousey via sub.... line moved to -180. I understand it might not hit.... she may TKO Betche. But she's a -1500 favorite and you can get her by submission at under 1:2.... this just amazes me.

Also put another put on Lil Nog who's odds got even better.... +170. Line shot back down to +148 since. Still think it ends up closer to a pickem.

And.... all the basic lines are out on 5 dimes... just put down 1 of probably 2 hail mary's:

319588475-1 7/26/15 5:00pm $8.50 $416.28 Pending 8 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +145* vs Mauricio Rua
Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Stefan Struve -190* vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Soa Palelei -195* vs Antonio Silva
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1701 Neil Magny -115* vs Demian Maia
Pending 8/1/15 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Warlley Alves -270* vs Nordine Taleb
Pending 8/1/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2102 Clint Hester -160* vs Vitor Miranda
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -185* vs Any other result

Pissed Magney opened at +150 and I missed it by a matter of minutes. I think it's a very close fight but I really like his style to outwork Maia and avoid his grappling.

Happy to have gotten my big bets on Gadelha + Rousey sub in, as predicted Gadelha already up to -350.

I'm seriously concerned for Barao's brain cells.

Also the Barao stoppage was way late.