UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 - Page 3

My confidence in Dillashaw is very high.

My thoughts.

The style matchup is perfect. Renan's very best asset is his scramble and top submission game. He is, without exception, the best BW of all time in submitting hurt opponents or sub-par grapplers. Unfortunately for him, Dillashaw, can counter-wrestle him easily and the chances of him hurting Dillashaw are fairly low at any given time (or so I see it).

Renan is certainly better at finishing a hurt opponent than Dillashaw, but that only plays when you are already winning.

Renan was always a little over-rated. It is interesting to look back in history and be able to see where the MMA community was off. I think Renan's P4P ranking prior to the Dillashaw fight is one instance. All of his victories look so much worse now (more accurate) than they did at the time. He lost rounds in many fights to many guys.

Furthermore, Renan has been badly concussed multiple times in his career, his NC to Claudemir Souza was actually him getting socker kick KO'd. Dillashaw put a massive beating on him and KO'd him 8 times. Than he KO'd himself missing weight! The concussive issues combined with the weight-cutting issues are obviously getting worse and worse as he ages. To deny this is to be absurd.

All we've seen since then is Barao look like complete shit vs Gagnon, and I'm gonna assume TJ has gotten even better since unlike the other Alpha Male tards, he's still training with Ludwig and has kept a low profile. His confidence is going to be extremely high entering the cage, Renan's? Who knows.

TJ will likely set the pace, Renan can't fight at his pace for 5 rounds, he's too big and throws with too much effort. If Renan tries to come out and blitz and lead the dance, TJ will probably be very smart, circle with great footwork, and let Renan gas himself.

I actually think Renan's best strategy would probably to go balls to the wall offensively right from the bell and try and counter-wrestle TJ's counter-wrestling (that does make sense, lol) and get him in a compromised grappling position (take his back, etc) This is his most likely path to success IMO and it's still a bad strategy for a guy who will inevitably gas and lose if Plan A fails.

Sitting back and countering like always is gonna lose him the fight an even higher majority of the time.

I think the likelihood is incredibly high that Dillashaw doesn't just beat Barao in 1-sided fight, he breaks him and finishes him quicker than last time, and in hind-site, the whole thing is gonna seem really obvious. I wouldn't touch Barao. -220 v +180 is not that wide for a fight like this. No way Barao wins this fight 1/3 times.

Infact, putting my money where my mouth is and stepping up my bet sizing for this fight....

219130319
MU T.J. DILLASHAW (RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW) -235 $235.00 $100.00

Other fights thoughts of the day,

Eye v Tate: I'm leaning back towards Tate on the Tate vs Eye situation and will probably just hedge with a Miesha decision prop at +105 and win either way unless there is a finish. I agree that it was foolish to assume Eye is going to stuff enough takedowns over 15 minutes to win a decision, but I'm not ruling it out.

Felder v Barboza: Hoping that Felder gets to +150, will bet him if he gets there, not very close yet but it's trending that way. That or Felder ITD gets to +200.

Gomi v Lauzon: Gomi ITD at +640 is a great hedge vs getting Lauzon at -220, excited to bet that.

Castillo by decision at +225 is good.

Added:

319065617-1 7/22/15 8:52pm $60.00 $61.80 Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1111 Tate wins by 3 round decision +103* vs Not Tate by 3 round decision
319065617-2 7/22/15 8:52pm $30.00 $192.00 Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm Props Fighting 1305 Gomi wins inside distance +640* vs Not Gomi inside distance
319065617-3 7/22/15 8:52pm $49.50 $30.00 Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm Props Fighting 1309 Lauzon wins inside distance -165* vs Not Lauzon inside distance
319065617-4 7/22/15 8:52pm $20.00 $70.00 Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm Props Fighting 1407 Lawlor wins by 3 round decision +350* vs Not Lawlor by 3 round decision
319066133-1 7/22/15 8:54pm $15.00 $116.25 Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1029 Dillashaw wins in round 3 +775* vs Any other result
319066133-2 7/22/15 8:54pm $15.00 $180.00 Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1031 Dillashaw wins in round 4 +1200* vs Any other result

319066675-1 7/22/15 8:59pm $10.00 $400.76 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Daron Cruickshank -155* vs James Krause
Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1009 Dillashaw wins inside distance +145* vs Not Dillashaw inside distance
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1111 Tate wins by 3 round decision -105* vs Not Tate by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm Props Fighting 1309 Lauzon wins inside distance -165* vs Not Lauzon inside distance
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm Props Fighting 1507 Castillo wins by 3 round decision +225* vs Not Castillo by 3 round decision

Risking: $50 To Win: $283.42
MU T.J. DILLASHAW (RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW) -235
MU JESSICA EYE v MIESHA TATE 2.5 -265
MU DANNY CASTILLO (DANNY CASTILLO vrs JIM MILLER) +109
MU DARON CRUICKSHANK (JAMES KRAUSE vrs DARON CRUICKSHANK) -160

Risking: $50 To Win: $192.07
MU T.J. DILLASHAW (RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW) -235
MU DANNY CASTILLO (DANNY CASTILLO vrs JIM MILLER) +109
MU DARON CRUICKSHANK (JAMES KRAUSE vrs DARON CRUICKSHANK) -160

ONLINE
07/24/2015
03:32 PM
[Ticket #: 219285623] RENAN BARAO VRS T.J. DILLASHAW: WHO WILL WIN AND W
vrs : FIGHT OUTCOME
07/25/2015 @ 06:20 PM TNT WHO WILL WIN AND WHEN? (5 ROUNDS)
[952355] T.J. DILLASHAW WINS IN ROUND 3 +1201
15.00 180.15
ONLINE
07/24/2015
03:33 PM
[Ticket #: 219285731] RENAN BARAO VRS T.J. DILLASHAW: WHO WILL WIN AND W
vrs : FIGHT OUTCOME
07/25/2015 @ 06:20 PM TNT WHO WILL WIN AND WHEN? (5 ROUNDS)
[952356] T.J. DILLASHAW WINS IN ROUND 4 +1602
15.00 240.30

ONLINE
07/24/2015
06:02 PM
[Ticket #: 219306038] STRAIGHT BET
07/25/2015 @ 01:35 PM MU [24342] JESSAMYN DUKE +141
(ELIZABETH PHILLIPS vrs JESSAMYN DUKE)
40.00 56.40
ONLINE
07/24/2015
06:03 PM
[Ticket #: 219306088] PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
07/25/2015 @ 06:20 PM MU [24302] T.J. DILLASHAW -235
(RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW)
07/25/2015 @ 03:55 PM MU [24321] DANNY CASTILLO +102
(DANNY CASTILLO vrs JIM MILLER)
07/25/2015 @ 02:25 PM MU [24334] DARON CRUICKSHANK -160
(JAMES KRAUSE vrs DARON CRUICKSHANK)
07/25/2015 @ 01:35 PM MU [24342] JESSAMYN DUKE +141
(ELIZABETH PHILLIPS vrs JESSAMYN DUKE)
20.00 205.54

UFC On Fox 16 7/22/2015 7/25/2015 Gomi KO/TKO/DQ PROP $30.00 642

Dillashaw will demolish Barao. I don't see any road to victory for Barao other than landing a hail mary shot and finishing him early and the probability of that is very low.

I have TJ at -200 at betfair at the moment and I am betting big on that.

On July 23 2015 17:55 northsails wrote: Dillashaw will demolish Barao. I don't see any road to victory for Barao other than landing a hail mary shot and finishing him early and the probability of that is very low. I have TJ at -200 at betfair at the moment and I am betting big on that.

Yah I agree with the early on finish being the only realistic path to victory. Will probably hedge all my bets with Barao rd 1 finish at +825ish if any of my parlays are live and those odds are still there.

Don't want to derail to the MMA News thread, but Lawler v Condit and Hendricks v Woodley co-main for 194.

Fire.

I understand that Hendricks is kind of getting dicked but if they don't make this fight now they never could. Good call.

Lawler + Condit

On July 24 2015 01:30 Minsk wrote: Lawler + Condit

?

On July 24 2015 02:25 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 24 2015 01:30 Minsk wrote: Lawler + Condit ?

guess I meant more

Watching weigh-in, just put another bet $40 on Eye decision because it's up to +400 which I think is insane.

Also added prop on Lawler KO at +900 - $20

Why is the president of the company holding the towel..

After all the hoopla, Barao still had to drop trow just to make weight on the dot. Not a good sign.

Him looking like death is no surprise but still, he looked like death.

T.J. Dillashaw (135) vs. Renan Barao (135)
Jessica Eye (136) vs. Miesha Tate (135.5)
Edson Barboza (155) vs. Paul Felder (155.5)
Takanori Gomi (155.5) vs. Joe Lauzon (155.5)
Tom Lawlor (203) vs. Gian Villante (205)
Danny Castillo (155.5) vs. Jim Miller (155)
Kenny Robertson (170) vs. Ben Saunders (170.5)
Bryan Caraway (135.5) vs. Eddie Wineland (136)
Daron Cruickshank (155) vs. James Krause (155.5)
Andrew Holbrook (155.5) vs. Ramsey Nijem (156)
Jessamyn Duke (135.5) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (135)
Zak Cummings (170.5) vs. Dominique Steele (170.5)


Thoughts:

- Barao looked good, so I don't feel bad about my bet on him. Dillashaw always looks good.

- Eye looks a little thick, but expected. Tate looked more solid and had less body fat, which I expected.

- Barboza/Felder as expected.

- Gomi/Lauzon as expected.

- Lawlor moved up a weight class for this fight and weighed in as much as he could at 203. Villante was still the bigger man and weighed in at 205, and he'll be huge tomorrow after he re-hydrates; Lawlor won't get any bigger.

- Castillo/Miller as expected.

- Robertson/Saunders as expected.

- Caraway/Wineland as expected. However, Caraway is taller than I thought, I always think of him as a short guy, but he was taller than Wineland. I always think of Wineland as being tall for the division for some reason. I like my bet on Caraway even more since he won't be the smaller guy.

- Cruickshank/Krause as expected.

- Holbrook/Nijem as expected.

- Duke/Phillips as expected.

- Cummings/Steele as expected. However, people keep talking about how big Cummings is for the division, yet he was barely bigger than Steele. Cummings is the better fighter, but there won't be a size advantage.

On July 24 2015 21:39 soberstone wrote: After all the hoopla, Barao still had to drop trow just to make weight on the dot. Not a good sign. Him looking like death is no surprise but still, he looked like death.

Guess we watched different weigh-ins. Barao looked fine, and he seemed in a good mood when he was talking to his friend who walked out with him. Having to take off his shorts isn't a big deal, imo. Dillashaw is still the same favorite as before the weigh-ins, nothing about the weigh-ins should make him a bigger favorite.

I don't think the weigh-ins should make him a bigger favorite either, I expected him to look bad and he did (IMO, we obv disagree there)

I think the fact that TJ is gonna dominate him should make him a bigger favorite than he is. I have no clue why the odds are so close, this fight is not close in my mind as previously stated.

If Renan lands something huge and wins in Rd 1 I'll probably have that hedged, but if anything other than that happens and he wins, I'll be happy to eat crow.

On July 24 2015 21:51 soberstone wrote: I don't think the weigh-ins should make him a bigger favorite either, I expected him to look bad and he did (IMO, we obv disagree there)

Out of the betting forums I go to, you're literally the only person I've seen that said Barao looked bad.

He might not have looked the way you expected him to, but it was a good cut for him.

I still like o4.5 +145, Barao ML +195, and Barao submission +800. I think this will the distance unless Barao hurts Dillashaw early and gets a finish.

Yah the general perception is that Barao looked good, I'm seeing the same feedback as you.