UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2 - Page 4

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TNT RENAN BARAO WINS IN ROUND 1 +800 $70.00 $560.00

The big hedge. I see better odds elsewhere but w/e, don't expect it to hit obv. Will put a little more on it if it got to +1000

I think Barao is more likely to go for a submission if he hurts Dillashaw. I like Barao submission +800 better than Barao wins in round 1 +800. You're limiting yourself so much with the round 1 bet.

On July 24 2015 22:00 soberstone wrote: Yah the general perception is that Barao looked good, I'm seeing the same feedback as you.

Looking good for Barao, and Looking good for Dillashaw, is not same.

For Barao, just making weight and not looking like death is good lol.

On July 24 2015 22:33 PuertoRican wrote: I think Barao is more likely to go for a submission if he hurts Dillashaw. I like Barao submission +800 better than Barao wins in round 1 +800. You're limiting yourself so much with the round 1 bet.

You may very well be right and I'm always open to criticism and to discuss the fights because it can only benefit us, but it sounds like you didn't read what I wrote about the fight and why I think Barao only has a chance in the 1st.

I know you disagree with the notion but I've explained why I feel this way.

If you feel, as I do, that Barao is a dangerous finisher but an overhill, overrated, and vastly outmatched fighter who should be a huge dog in this fight and will be pretty much out of it by Rd 2, than the best hedge is a 1st rd finish.

Just 1 man's opinion. Will let the results speak for themselves on how much people should value it. I've been very hot lately and have won on 10+ events in a row (aside from a $20.00 parlay on that shitty Titan event) and tripled my bankroll (not really a bankroll since I'm not adhering to 5 unit maximums, full disclosure there) all well documented on this sight, but maybe it's just an upswing and I'm a fish, very possible and I'm not being sarcastic.

Hopefully the moment comes that I know beyond a reasonable doubt that this is truly very profitable, and would start betting much more.

On July 24 2015 22:44 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 24 2015 22:33 PuertoRican wrote: I think Barao is more likely to go for a submission if he hurts Dillashaw. I like Barao submission +800 better than Barao wins in round 1 +800. You're limiting yourself so much with the round 1 bet. If you feel, as I do, that Barao is a dangerous finisher but an overhill, overrated, and vastly outmatched fighter who should be a huge dog in this fight and will be pretty much out of it by Rd 2, than the best hedge is a 1st rd finish.

I don't feel that way, nor should you. I won't bother typing up a long reply of text, as you already have your mind made up on the entire fight, but I will say that you shouldn't have as narrow of a view on the fight as you currently do.

So yeah, this is where we differ.

Fair enough, just eat your crow if it's a blow-out and I'll eat mine, even if I win, if the fight is close. I'd say that's a fair enough proposition.

Disclaimer - Does not apply if Barao gets a 1st rd finish

Lol Tom lawlor wearing a lot of Reebook clothes.

Added a bet on Duke at +141 and threw her in a parlay as well.

I just watched Philips last 2 fights and Dukes last 3 and I feel like 4-horsewomen hate has finally gone too far.

Bookies opened Duke as a slight fav and she's moved to a fair dog. I feel like people are just fading Phillips because the 4-horsewoman have turned about to be a joke.

After watching the tape, it is apparent that Duke isn't good (doesn't use reach well at all and has bad fat IQ) but is still a better striker than Phillips, and can probably use her Thai plumb (which is actually pretty good) and look for subs when Phillips inevitably tries to wrestle her.

Phillips hates getting hit and for what it's worth - not much - Duke did fight and sub her as an amateur.

Phillips can certainly win, especially if she gets a good start by landing her one good strike - an overhand right. Or more likely, she could feasibly wrestle fuck Duke. But I lean Duke slightly and therefore like her as a dog.

On July 24 2015 22:58 soberstone wrote: Fair enough, just eat your crow if it's a blow-out and I'll eat mine, even if I win, if the fight is close. I'd say that's a fair enough proposition. Disclaimer - Does not apply if Barao gets a 1st rd finish

I agree more with you on this particular fight but I'm not sure why he has to eat crow if you're correct on a single fight and you seem to be the one pushing your opinion hard

Would like to root for Barao though. At least partially to see TJ's coach knocked down a peg or eight. Some weird passive aggressive vibe he has in taking as much credit as he possibly can as a coach while talking nonsense shit

Other couple thoughts...Barao didn't look great for an average fighter stepping up to the weight scale. But I thought he looked a lot better than what he usually looks like

The one time I saw Duke fight, I remember thinking to myself that she has to be one of the most hittable professional fighters I've ever seen. Hopefully for her face's sake, she's improved that a little

I personally know soberstone is most likely right about barao losing again, as most experts agree with him, but i couldn't resist betting Barao at +210. I'm a fish i guess

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On July 25 2015 03:14 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 24 2015 22:58 soberstone wrote: Fair enough, just eat your crow if it's a blow-out and I'll eat mine, even if I win, if the fight is close. I'd say that's a fair enough proposition. Disclaimer - Does not apply if Barao gets a 1st rd finish I agree more with you on this particular fight but I'm not sure why he has to eat crow if you're correct on a single fight and you seem to be the one pushing your opinion hard Would like to root for Barao though. At least partially to see TJ's coach knocked down a peg or eight. Some weird passive aggressive vibe he has in taking as much credit as he possibly can as a coach while talking nonsense shit

Because when one person gives a full explanation of their thoughts on their fight, and the other just picks the other guy and says "I don't feel this way, and nor should you", they get to eat crow when they are wrong.

Why is eating crow so terrible? I was positive Cain Valasquez was gonna maul Verdum and he got raped. I gave a full explanation of why I felt that way and was completely off. Crow was eaten. Big deal.

And what does pushing your opinion hard mean? Feeling strongly about a fight and explaining my thoughts on it?.... I guess. To me, that's called having a strong opinion, not pushing it hard. I haven't felt this confident about someone winning in the main event since Valasquez (again, was completely wrong about that one) - and if I feel strongly and feel like there is money to be made, why not explain why?

I thought it meant telling someone else they "should" feel differently about a fight. That would seem to be more of the "pushing your opinion hard" variety to me.....

Either way, all good, I just don't want to be misinterpreted. I respect Rican's opinion and especially his effort on making these posts...I respect yours...... you both seem knowledgeable when posting..... gl on all your bets!

Also, I agree with the Ludwig statement. I heard his interview this week on Sirius where he ripped on Alpha Male and took those passive aggressive shots for seemingly no reason. Obviously he is insecure, pissed, and there are sour grapes there. Not a fan of the guy, but huge respect to his coaching, can't really think of a guy evolving under a system so quickly as TJ under his. Even Chad's striking vs Barao in the second fight was clearly improved and I'd say Ludwig must have helped him too.

Hey Sobertstone, i think the point of these threads is to dicuss the fights and betting, don't feel bad about doing so. Most experts opinion 100% agree with you on Dillashaw. I'm personally going Barao, but its probably a fish move =)

On July 25 2015 18:04 Floofy wrote: Hey Sobertstone, i think the point of these threads is to dicuss the fights and betting, don't feel bad about doing so. Most experts opinion 100% agree with you on Dillashaw. I'm personally going Barao, but its probably a fish move =)

Appreciate it. Who knows though..... MMA fights..... the result will probably find a way to make us all wrong,

Why are you feelin Renan (betting wise)? Anything you see in particular that might play favorably for him or more of a gut feeling that the odds are too wide?

All my bets:

+ Show Spoiler +

Headed over the Sherdog studios here in LA to watch the fight with my boy TJ. If you listen to Beatdown After the Bell I'll be there. GL HF!

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

I just bought out of my parlay. Break even if Duke wins, tiny profit if Phillips and Cummings win.

You guys think there's value on James Krause ?