UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2

Date: Saturday, July 25th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:15 LP.net / 1:15pm PST / 4:15pm EST
Preliminary Card (FOX): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (FOX): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (FOX)

T.J. Dillashaw (11-2) vs. Renan Barao (33-2) (Bantamweight Championship)
Miesha Tate (16-5) vs. Jessica Eye (11-2) (Women's Bantamweight Title Eliminator)
Edson Barboza (15-3) vs. Paul Felder (10-0) (Lightweight)
Joe Lauzon (24-10) vs. Takanori Gomi (35-10) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (FOX)

Gian Villante (13-5) vs. Tom Lawlor (9-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Jim Miller (24-6) vs. Danny Castillo (17-8) (Lightweight)
Kenny Robertson (15-3) vs. Ben Saunders (18-6-2) (Welterweight)
Eddie Wineland (21-10-1) vs. Bryan Caraway (19-7) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Daron Cruickshank (16-6) vs. James Krause (21-7) (Lightweight)
Ramsey Nijem (9-5) vs. Andrew Holbrook (9-0) (Lightweight)
Jessamyn Duke (3-2) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (4-3) (Women's Bantamweight)
Zak Cummings (17-4) vs. Dominique Steele (13-5) (Welterweight)

Other

- The event is expected to be headlined by a UFC Bantamweight Championship rematch between current champion T.J. Dillashaw and former champion Renan Barao. Their first fight took place at UFC 173 and ended in a fifth round TKO victory for Dillashaw that won him the title. Prior to this event, the rematch had been rescheduled for two other events. The first of which was UFC 177, where Barao withdrew from the bout on the day of weigh-ins, as he had to be admitted to a hospital as a result of his attempts to cut weight. The second was UFC 186, where Dillashaw withdrew from the bout due to a broken rib.
- The co-main event is expected to feature a UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship title eliminator bout between former Strikeforce Women's Bantamweight champion Miesha Tate and Jessica Eye.
- Former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis was expected to face Myles Jury at the event. However, Pettis pulled out of the bout on May 7 due to an elbow injury and was replaced by Edson Barboza. In turn, Jury pulled out the bout on June 9 due to an injury and was replaced by Paul Felder.
- A lightweight bout between Danny Castillo and Rustam Khabilov that was previously scheduled for UFC 182 was expected to take place at this event. However, once again, Khabilov was pulled from the bout due to complications with his visa. Castillo is expected to remain on the card against Jim Miller.
- Erik Koch was expected to face Ramsey Nijem at the event. However, Koch pulled out of the bout in late June due to an injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Andrew Holbrook.
- Antonio Braga Neto was expected to face Zak Cummings at this event. However, Neto pulled out of the bout in early July due to an injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Dominique Steele.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Dillashaw > Barao
• Tate > Eye
• Felder > Barboza
• Lauzon vs. Gomi (dunno)
• Villante > Lawlor
• Castillo > Miller
• Saunders > Robertson
• Wineland > Caraway
• Krause > Cruickshank
• Nijem vs. Holbrook (dunno)
• Phillips > Duke
• Cummings > Steele

Pretty sick free card.

Early parlay on some lines I liked that just opened:

$20.00 $286.19 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 T.J. Dillashaw -220* vs Renan Barao
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Eye +130* vs Miesha Tate
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -210* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Gian Villante -210* vs Tom Lawlor
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Danny Castillo +110* vs Jim Miller

On July 19 2015 20:33 soberstone wrote: Early parlay on some lines I liked that just opened: $20.00 $286.19 Pending 5 Team Parlay Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 T.J. Dillashaw -220* vs Renan Barao Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Eye +130* vs Miesha Tate Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -210* vs Takanori Gomi Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Gian Villante -210* vs Tom Lawlor Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Danny Castillo +110* vs Jim Miller

You're gonna end up sweating the Eye vs. Tate match. Eye is the better pure boxer, but not by much these days, since Tate has improved her hands. Eye goes inactive in her fights, which has cost her in the past. Also, if Tate gets Eye to the ground, which I fully expect her to, Eye won't have anything to offer.

I expect Tate to win by a decision most of the time, and a submission the rest of the time. Eye could win, too, but she needs to box consistently for 3 full rounds and defend the take down, but I don't think she'll be able to.

I really like Felder and hope he has a break through performance but I can't bet him at these close odds when stylistically he is going right into Barboza's wheelhouse, a straight kickboxing match where the guys look for counters on the outside.

Barboza's flaw typically comes vs pressure I don't see Felder fighting that way. I do think Felder has the higher ceiling if he's able to up the volume and improve his straight boxing.

I think Barao should be favored in this odds-wise, I don't think one win against a sluggish Barao with a very significant punch should make Dillashaw a favorite here and it seems enough time has passed to heal Barao's nerves a little bit.

On July 19 2015 21:57 Minsk wrote: I think Barao should be favored in this odds-wise, I don't think one win against a sluggish Barao with a very significant punch should make Dillashaw a favorite here and it seems enough time has passed to heal Barao's nerves a little bit.

I'm not sure he should be favored, but +180 seems like great odds imo

Taken from Sherdog forums:

With 5 days left to make weight, Barão is 149lbs and looking super skinny

"Barão said that he tried to lower his walkaround weight from 77kg (170lbs) to 74kgs (164lbs) with the help of a different nutricionist and he has been trying to lose as much weight as possible beforehand in order to not have further problems making the BW limit.

Now my question is... how the F do you lose another 15lbs from this body???"

Really nice matchups on this card, alot of fights with pretty even odds and the biggest favourite is only -250.

ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135?

So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage

anyways I imagine he cuts all the water before getting on the scale and then at fight time he will be back around the size in that pic, maybe 2-3 lbs. less.

Renan looks good. I am on that Same parlay as Soberstone except I made a backup one with Tate winning. Think I am going to hedge with a straight bet on barao

although I watched renan's last fight vs mitch; he was so nervous and scared of losing it seemed. In the fight he was getting tagged when mitch threw, he is just flat footed and not nearly as agile. Dillashaw gonna be hitting him all night just depends if renan can actually hit him back a few times this next fight,

Barao steps into the cage weighing about/at least 160. His coaches said so in the past.

Pretty crazy when you think about it.

On July 20 2015 19:22 traxamillion wrote: ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135? So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage

Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting.

He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt).

I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points.

On July 20 2015 19:26 traxamillion wrote: although I watched renan's last fight vs mitch; he was so nervous and scared of losing it seemed. In the fight he was getting tagged when mitch threw, he is just flat footed and not nearly as agile. Dillashaw gonna be hitting him all night just depends if renan can actually hit him back a few times this next fight,

This is pretty much spot-on IMO, I just don't see the flat-footed counter striking of Barao working often against Dillashaw's movement and variety.

On July 20 2015 20:11 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2015 19:22 traxamillion wrote: ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135? So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting. He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt). I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points.

I don't know, Dillashaw had a cakewalk last time. Renan is a proven champion with years of experience and very few leaks. All it takes is one slip up by Dillashaw, who doesn't have that extensive experience, and Barao is very good at catching people that make a mistake. Thats really what its about to me. Thats really why Barao should be favored in my opinion.

On July 20 2015 09:54 gebbstet wrote: Really nice matchups on this card, alot of fights with pretty even odds and the biggest favourite is only -250.

This is great for betting =)

Added two more bets. I think Eye by decision is an incredibly good bet at +250, I know a lot of people don't see it that way. Tate is a far bigger name and opened as a favorite and the odds are about where they opened. I think the late sharp money comes in on Eye after people wait for casuals to bet Tate.

I think Jessica Eye will be at a major advantage boxing, land the cleaner shots, and stuff most takedowns. If Miesha lands an early TD and can gain a dominant position I'd feel terrible about the bet, and that's a real possibility, but I think Eye will be ready to sprawl, brawl. and circle off the cage effectively. I had Eye over Davis (She got jobbed by that decision IMO but it was a good lesson for her either way) and she beat Kaufman (who beat Tate, mma math doesn't work but just saying) only to have that deemed a NC due to weed. Then she blew up Leslie Smith's ear. It's not the victories themselves, but the way her boxing, sense of distance, technique, and lateral movement is just clearly better than Miesha's to me. I think her superior lateral movement in particular will play nicely vs Miesha's sort of all or nothing entries into takedowns, striking herself into the clinch, etc. Miesha closes distance very fast but recklessly, and Eye can play matador very nicely.

She's also shown more improvements each fight than Meisha has on a per fight basis. Let's be honest, Sarah McMann blew that fucking fight against Meisha - and I had money on Meisha in that one. Props to Meisha for showing insane heart, I won't question that - if a fight comes down to heart Meisha is a good bet. Essentially, Meisha is a better all-around fighter but I think the matchup is not a good one for her and if Eye wins, it'll be a decision 9/10 times so +250 is juicy as hell to me.

Lauzon has moved a bit but I'm still liking the line, Gomi has been done forever and Lauzon has actually looked really good since his loss to Michael Johnson.

Villante could be a bad bet, I set the line I expected at -350 before the odds came out so I'm just going with it, but I do need to go back and watch some Lawler tape and see if hedges are necessary there. Villante is just a big tough guy with an iron chin, good wrestling, but questionable cardio - I think I'll be keeping a close eye on this weigh-in to see how he looks.

Miller v Castillo should go the distance, I expect a heavy dose of wrestling for Castillo and a frustrated Jim Miller at the end of 3 rounds. If Ferguson couldn't sub Castillo, I don't see Miller doing it - as crafty as he is. I think it has to do with Castillo basically training with guys that have insane guillotines all day at Alpha Male. I could maybe see some kind of Leglock from Miller, I guarantee he rolls for a few, but it's not a high-percentage enough move for me to worry about. Don't see either guy KOing each other - Castillo is chinny but Miller hasn't KO'd anyone since Mr. Chinny - Kamal Shalarous in 2011. And Castillo has 1 punch KO power but he rarely lands on target and Miller is durable and crafty enough to survive a barrage.

318802212-1 7/20/15 8:06pm $20.00 $92.42 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1107 Eye wins by 3 round decision +250* vs Not Eye by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm Props Fighting 1503 Castillo / Miller goes 3 round distance -165* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

318802082-1 7/20/15 8:04pm $20.00 $121.56 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -250* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Gian Villante -225* vs Tom Lawlor
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1107 Eye wins by 3 round decision +250* vs Not Eye by 3 round decision

On July 20 2015 20:29 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2015 20:11 soberstone wrote:   On July 20 2015 19:22 traxamillion wrote: ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135? So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting. He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt). I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points. I don't know, Dillashaw had a cakewalk last time. Renan is a proven champion with years of experience and very few leaks. All it takes is one slip up by Dillashaw, who doesn't have that extensive experience, and Barao is very good at catching people that make a mistake. Thats really what its about to me. Thats really why Barao should be favored in my opinion.

Renan's leaks are that he's cutting too much weight but more importantly, he can get outpointed because he doesn't want a fast paced fight which sort of makes him a slow starter (due to 5 rounds + weight-cut). Eddie Wineland won rd 1 vs Barao by landing clean boxing combo's and avoiding big counters. Michael McDonald rocked Barao and won rd 1 big time but for whatever reason totally gassed later. Urijah Faber kinda isn't good anymore and just didn't have shit for Barao, so those victories weren't all that impressive to me. Barao was just a bit over-rated the whole time he was champ. He wouldn't have ever beaten Cruz IMO. He's still a fantastic top 3-5 BW, but nothing more unless he shows me otherwise.

Barao's individual skill sets are absolutely insane, especially his finishing instincts, straight muai thai, and his top game and submissions are P4P good, but he's not that new breed champion that can fight and beat other people at their own pace when they need to.

Mmmm.... so just watched some Villante and Lawlor tape.

Not stoked with my bet because I actually like the matchup for Lawlor moving up. He has a great chin and fast hands and Villante is very hittable.

On the other hand, Villante looked like he got a lot better for his last fight with Corey Anderson - particularly his cardio and defense, because he was pretty damn terrible before it.

I'm not really happy with the bet, but I don't want to get juice-raped on a hedge. Still think Villante wins but not necessarily 8/10 times. Don't recommend that tail.

On July 20 2015 20:29 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On July 20 2015 20:11 soberstone wrote:   On July 20 2015 19:22 traxamillion wrote: ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135? So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting. He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt). I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points. I don't know, Dillashaw had a cakewalk last time. Renan is a proven champion with years of experience and very few leaks. All it takes is one slip up by Dillashaw, who doesn't have that extensive experience, and Barao is very good at catching people that make a mistake. Thats really what its about to me. Thats really why Barao should be favored in my opinion.

I read a bit about this matchup on a forum with "proven winners", and essentially they think Dillashaw is "about as close to a lock as you can get".
In their first fight, Renan didn't win a single round, and was completly outclassed

I have a feeling this is similar to Silva vs Weidman 2, where a part of the people just see the new champion is a lock, and another part of the people are in deny about their old champion being outclassed.

The thing is, i'm kinda part of the second group (deny people), and i'm probably just gonna bet on the over...

Dillashaw (-215) + Lauzon (-240) - $100 to win $107.56 . First big bet, I feel good about these two in particular.

On July 21 2015 02:01 soberstone wrote: Mmmm.... so just watched some Villante and Lawlor tape. Not stoked with my bet because I actually like the matchup for Lawlor moving up. He has a great chin and fast hands and Villante is very hittable. On the other hand, Villante looked like he got a lot better for his last fight with Corey Anderson - particularly his cardio and defense, because he was pretty damn terrible before it. I'm not really happy with the bet, but I don't want to get juice-raped on a hedge. Still think Villante wins but not necessarily 8/10 times. Don't recommend that tail.

I like Villante to win. I don't like his current line, but I won't lay any money on Lawlor.

Anderson was winning the fight against Villante until the random KO in the 3rd, but it wasn't that Villante won the fight that impressed me, it's how he looked prior to the KO. He improved in a few areas, and since Lawlor was away from MMA for a year due to ACL/MCL injuries, then additional time for unknown reasons, and since he'll be the smaller/less stronger fighter, I like Villante here.

Maybe Villante by decision, since Lawlor is usually durable.

i still cant believe this is a free event, look at supermouse's ufc 191 event thats coming up in a couple months

This weeks Hail Mary.... super Hail Mary at +13442:

318864112-1 7/21/15 11:30am $9.00 $1,209.76 Pending 7 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 T.J. Dillashaw -220* vs Renan Barao
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -250* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 7/25/15 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Daron Cruickshank -150* vs James Krause
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1107 Eye wins by 3 round decision +250* vs Not Eye by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 8:30pm Props Fighting 1211 Barboza wins by 3 round decision +280* vs Not Barboza by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm Props Fighting 1503 Castillo / Miller goes 3 round distance -175* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
Pending 7/25/15 6:00pm Props Fighting 1703 Caraway / Wineland goes 3 round distance -110* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Bets thus far:

Phillips/Duke u2.5 +170 (.5u)
Caraway/Wineland u2.5 +105 (.5u)
Paul Felder +110 (1.5u)
Felder/Barboza o1.5 -150 (1u)
Ramsey Nijem -130 (1u)
Bryan Caraway +120 (1.5u)
Barao/Dillashaw o4.5 +145 (1u)
Renan Barao +185 (1u)
Ben Saunders -110 (1u)
Danny Castillo +110 (1u)

On July 21 2015 14:28 Raidern wrote: i still cant believe this is a free event, look at supermouse's ufc 191 event thats coming up in a couple months

MM event does have

Blachowicz vs Johnson

That seems nice. and we don't know what else they will add.

On July 21 2015 21:39 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On July 21 2015 14:28 Raidern wrote: i still cant believe this is a free event, look at supermouse's ufc 191 event thats coming up in a couple months MM event does have Blachowicz vs Johnson That seems nice. and we don't know what else they will add.

Blachowicz v Johnson is a fight where the under 1.5 rds should be like -400. Love it.

Edit: Wrote like an essay on the Miesha Tate v Jessica Eye fight but I'm taking it off because I realize I really haven't put enough effort to offer a good opinion on an overall fight prediction.

On July 22 2015 00:51 soberstone wrote: Edit: Wrote like an essay on the Miesha Tate v Jessica Eye fight but I'm taking it off because I realize I really haven't put enough effort to offer a good opinion on an overall fight prediction.

Well, looks I crushed the Lauzon line. -350 to -400 on everything except Bovada. Traxamillion you should lay a bet.

On July 22 2015 01:57 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 22 2015 00:51 soberstone wrote: Edit: Wrote like an essay on the Miesha Tate v Jessica Eye fight but I'm taking it off because I realize I really haven't put enough effort to offer a good opinion on an overall fight prediction.

haha

I think the Dillashaw finish props in the middle-late rounds are great bets. All my money is on my Maker account so I have to wait for those to open but I'm certainly gonna be betting them.

I've been missing on those props recently (Bisping never hurt Laites at all, McGregor finished Mendes 3 seconds too early) but I think this is one where if Dillashaw breaks Barao early, he'll look for the finish and Barao, with the weight cut and concussive beatdown he received last time, is fairly likely to fall rd 3-4 if he starts eating clean combos and and a good dose of body and head kicks.

Also probably gonna bet a Felder finish. I feel like if it goes the distance that points to a Barboza style fight vs a big finish would likely be on the Felder side. I think winner vs Ferguson would be fun but I do think they should give Ferguson Alvarez because Ferguson would roast him and deserve a title shot.

On July 19 2015 21:57 Minsk wrote: I think Barao should be favored in this odds-wise, I don't think one win against a sluggish Barao with a very significant punch should make Dillashaw a favorite here and it seems enough time has passed to heal Barao's nerves a little bit.

lolwut

TJ was easily winning before the big punch, and Barao had recovered by the 2nd round. TJ just completely dominated him for like 23 minutes.

Not to mention Barao looked very mediocre in his last fight against Clark.

On July 21 2015 02:05 soberstone wrote: Dillashaw (-215) + Lauzon (-240) - $100 to win $107.56 . First big bet, I feel good about these two in particular.

I've noticed that when you say you feel good about bets, they come true.


I think that if you watch the previous fight, you would have every reason to believe Dillashaw will do good, and you have to look outside the fight to make a case for Barao.

1. Barao didn't take Dillashaw very seriously or prepare for him.
2. Barao looked like he had trouble cutting weight, and looked a little off.
3. Dillashaw was trained by Urijah Faber who knew exactly how to teach Dillashaw to specifically prepare for countering Barao from direct experience.

Now if you look at their upcoming fight
1. Barao is more certainly preparing specifically for Dillashaw. While knowing and understanding Dillashaw's style.
2. I don't think that Dillashaw has another style he can pull out of his hat thats viable.
3. Barao has taken the time to prepare, even cancelling the fight after missing weight.

and
4. Barao has a ton of experience and very few leaks, where Dillashaw had an exceptional performance.
5. Basically everything went Dillashaw's way the first fight, he was never tested at all.

I think you have to look outside the actual fight material to understand all these factors and think Barao will win. If you base it off the fight, its a clear inference that Dillashaw should win again.

Regarding Dillashaw vs. Barao #1

- Did Barao seem a little off in the beginning of the first fight? Yes. IMO, he did. Could've been due to a bad weight cut. There was stuff in the media that mentioned Barao wasn't healthy, and/or had a bad weight cut for that fight.

- Did the big punch that dropped Barao in the 1st round have an effect on Barao and turn him into a sitting duck for the rest of the fight? Yes. IMO, it did.

- Did Dillashaw move better and strike better than Barao prior to the knockdown in round 1? Yes. This is fact.

There's several variables that need to be looked at for the second fight, such as:

- Dillashaw's newfound confidence as champion.

- Dillashaw will have the slight advantage if this fight ended in a split-decision, imo.

- How will Barao deal with having to rematch the guy who beat your ass and ended your 9-year winning streak? Barao admitted in the "Road to the Octagon" video that Dillashaw beat him that day, he didn't make any excuses.

- Barao will have to deal with the weight cut and facing a guy who he knows has way better cardio than him, and also throws way more strikes in a fight, and moves way better and faster than him. Barao will have to plan accordingly.

I currently have a bet on o4.5 +145 and Barao +185. Barao is currently up to +200 or more on some books. Dillashaw should be the favorite, but I'm not quick to write off someone like Barao after one loss. Yes, he had a shitty fight against Mitch Gagnon in his first fight after losing his belt, but Dillashaw didn't look all that great against Joe Soto, a guy who I know very well from watching most of his pro career, and I was waiting for him to join the UFC so I could make money betting against him, which I did in his fight against Anthony Birchak. Some people used the excuse that Dillashaw took that fight on 24-hours notice... WTF??? He was training for several months to fight a much better guy, and if anyone should be affected in that fight, it should be Soto, as he had to lose all the weight in 24 hours to fight for 5-rounds against a guy he used to train with.

Anyway, I expect Dillashaw to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Barao won. I definitely don't cap Dillashaw as a -240 favorite.

My confidence in Dillashaw is very high.

My thoughts.

The style matchup is perfect. Renan's very best asset is his scramble and top submission game. He is, without exception, the best BW of all time in submitting hurt opponents or sub-par grapplers. Unfortunately for him, Dillashaw, can counter-wrestle him easily and the chances of him hurting Dillashaw are fairly low at any given time (or so I see it).

Renan is certainly better at finishing a hurt opponent than Dillashaw, but that only plays when you are already winning.

Renan was always a little over-rated. It is interesting to look back in history and be able to see where the MMA community was off. I think Renan's P4P ranking prior to the Dillashaw fight is one instance. All of his victories look so much worse now (more accurate) than they did at the time. He lost rounds in many fights to many guys.

Furthermore, Renan has been badly concussed multiple times in his career, his NC to Claudemir Souza was actually him getting socker kick KO'd. Dillashaw put a massive beating on him and KO'd him 8 times. Than he KO'd himself missing weight! The concussive issues combined with the weight-cutting issues are obviously getting worse and worse as he ages. To deny this is to be absurd.

All we've seen since then is Barao look like complete shit vs Gagnon, and I'm gonna assume TJ has gotten even better since unlike the other Alpha Male tards, he's still training with Ludwig and has kept a low profile. His confidence is going to be extremely high entering the cage, Renan's? Who knows.

TJ will likely set the pace, Renan can't fight at his pace for 5 rounds, he's too big and throws with too much effort. If Renan tries to come out and blitz and lead the dance, TJ will probably be very smart, circle with great footwork, and let Renan gas himself.

I actually think Renan's best strategy would probably to go balls to the wall offensively right from the bell and try and counter-wrestle TJ's counter-wrestling (that does make sense, lol) and get him in a compromised grappling position (take his back, etc) This is his most likely path to success IMO and it's still a bad strategy for a guy who will inevitably gas and lose if Plan A fails.

Sitting back and countering like always is gonna lose him the fight an even higher majority of the time.

I think the likelihood is incredibly high that Dillashaw doesn't just beat Barao in 1-sided fight, he breaks him and finishes him quicker than last time, and in hind-site, the whole thing is gonna seem really obvious. I wouldn't touch Barao. -220 v +180 is not that wide for a fight like this. No way Barao wins this fight 1/3 times.

Infact, putting my money where my mouth is and stepping up my bet sizing for this fight....

219130319
MU T.J. DILLASHAW (RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW) -235 $235.00 $100.00

Other fights thoughts of the day,

Eye v Tate: I'm leaning back towards Tate on the Tate vs Eye situation and will probably just hedge with a Miesha decision prop at +105 and win either way unless there is a finish. I agree that it was foolish to assume Eye is going to stuff enough takedowns over 15 minutes to win a decision, but I'm not ruling it out.

Felder v Barboza: Hoping that Felder gets to +150, will bet him if he gets there, not very close yet but it's trending that way. That or Felder ITD gets to +200.

Gomi v Lauzon: Gomi ITD at +640 is a great hedge vs getting Lauzon at -220, excited to bet that.

Castillo by decision at +225 is good.

Added:

319065617-1 7/22/15 8:52pm $60.00 $61.80 Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1111 Tate wins by 3 round decision +103* vs Not Tate by 3 round decision
319065617-2 7/22/15 8:52pm $30.00 $192.00 Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm Props Fighting 1305 Gomi wins inside distance +640* vs Not Gomi inside distance
319065617-3 7/22/15 8:52pm $49.50 $30.00 Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm Props Fighting 1309 Lauzon wins inside distance -165* vs Not Lauzon inside distance
319065617-4 7/22/15 8:52pm $20.00 $70.00 Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm Props Fighting 1407 Lawlor wins by 3 round decision +350* vs Not Lawlor by 3 round decision
319066133-1 7/22/15 8:54pm $15.00 $116.25 Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1029 Dillashaw wins in round 3 +775* vs Any other result
319066133-2 7/22/15 8:54pm $15.00 $180.00 Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1031 Dillashaw wins in round 4 +1200* vs Any other result

319066675-1 7/22/15 8:59pm $10.00 $400.76 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Daron Cruickshank -155* vs James Krause
Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm Props Fighting 1009 Dillashaw wins inside distance +145* vs Not Dillashaw inside distance
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1111 Tate wins by 3 round decision -105* vs Not Tate by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm Props Fighting 1309 Lauzon wins inside distance -165* vs Not Lauzon inside distance
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm Props Fighting 1507 Castillo wins by 3 round decision +225* vs Not Castillo by 3 round decision

Risking: $50 To Win: $283.42
MU T.J. DILLASHAW (RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW) -235
MU JESSICA EYE v MIESHA TATE 2.5 -265
MU DANNY CASTILLO (DANNY CASTILLO vrs JIM MILLER) +109
MU DARON CRUICKSHANK (JAMES KRAUSE vrs DARON CRUICKSHANK) -160

Risking: $50 To Win: $192.07
MU T.J. DILLASHAW (RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW) -235
MU DANNY CASTILLO (DANNY CASTILLO vrs JIM MILLER) +109
MU DARON CRUICKSHANK (JAMES KRAUSE vrs DARON CRUICKSHANK) -160

ONLINE
07/24/2015
03:32 PM
[Ticket #: 219285623] RENAN BARAO VRS T.J. DILLASHAW: WHO WILL WIN AND W
vrs : FIGHT OUTCOME
07/25/2015 @ 06:20 PM TNT WHO WILL WIN AND WHEN? (5 ROUNDS)
[952355] T.J. DILLASHAW WINS IN ROUND 3 +1201
15.00 180.15
ONLINE
07/24/2015
03:33 PM
[Ticket #: 219285731] RENAN BARAO VRS T.J. DILLASHAW: WHO WILL WIN AND W
vrs : FIGHT OUTCOME
07/25/2015 @ 06:20 PM TNT WHO WILL WIN AND WHEN? (5 ROUNDS)
[952356] T.J. DILLASHAW WINS IN ROUND 4 +1602
15.00 240.30

ONLINE
07/24/2015
06:02 PM
[Ticket #: 219306038] STRAIGHT BET
07/25/2015 @ 01:35 PM MU [24342] JESSAMYN DUKE +141
(ELIZABETH PHILLIPS vrs JESSAMYN DUKE)
40.00 56.40
ONLINE
07/24/2015
06:03 PM
[Ticket #: 219306088] PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
07/25/2015 @ 06:20 PM MU [24302] T.J. DILLASHAW -235
(RENAN BARAO vrs T.J. DILLASHAW)
07/25/2015 @ 03:55 PM MU [24321] DANNY CASTILLO +102
(DANNY CASTILLO vrs JIM MILLER)
07/25/2015 @ 02:25 PM MU [24334] DARON CRUICKSHANK -160
(JAMES KRAUSE vrs DARON CRUICKSHANK)
07/25/2015 @ 01:35 PM MU [24342] JESSAMYN DUKE +141
(ELIZABETH PHILLIPS vrs JESSAMYN DUKE)
20.00 205.54

UFC On Fox 16 7/22/2015 7/25/2015 Gomi KO/TKO/DQ PROP $30.00 642

Dillashaw will demolish Barao. I don't see any road to victory for Barao other than landing a hail mary shot and finishing him early and the probability of that is very low.

I have TJ at -200 at betfair at the moment and I am betting big on that.

On July 23 2015 17:55 northsails wrote: Dillashaw will demolish Barao. I don't see any road to victory for Barao other than landing a hail mary shot and finishing him early and the probability of that is very low. I have TJ at -200 at betfair at the moment and I am betting big on that.

Yah I agree with the early on finish being the only realistic path to victory. Will probably hedge all my bets with Barao rd 1 finish at +825ish if any of my parlays are live and those odds are still there.

Don't want to derail to the MMA News thread, but Lawler v Condit and Hendricks v Woodley co-main for 194.

Fire.

I understand that Hendricks is kind of getting dicked but if they don't make this fight now they never could. Good call.

Lawler + Condit

On July 24 2015 01:30 Minsk wrote: Lawler + Condit

?

On July 24 2015 02:25 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 24 2015 01:30 Minsk wrote: Lawler + Condit ?

guess I meant more

Watching weigh-in, just put another bet $40 on Eye decision because it's up to +400 which I think is insane.

Also added prop on Lawler KO at +900 - $20

Why is the president of the company holding the towel..

After all the hoopla, Barao still had to drop trow just to make weight on the dot. Not a good sign.

Him looking like death is no surprise but still, he looked like death.

T.J. Dillashaw (135) vs. Renan Barao (135)
Jessica Eye (136) vs. Miesha Tate (135.5)
Edson Barboza (155) vs. Paul Felder (155.5)
Takanori Gomi (155.5) vs. Joe Lauzon (155.5)
Tom Lawlor (203) vs. Gian Villante (205)
Danny Castillo (155.5) vs. Jim Miller (155)
Kenny Robertson (170) vs. Ben Saunders (170.5)
Bryan Caraway (135.5) vs. Eddie Wineland (136)
Daron Cruickshank (155) vs. James Krause (155.5)
Andrew Holbrook (155.5) vs. Ramsey Nijem (156)
Jessamyn Duke (135.5) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (135)
Zak Cummings (170.5) vs. Dominique Steele (170.5)


Thoughts:

- Barao looked good, so I don't feel bad about my bet on him. Dillashaw always looks good.

- Eye looks a little thick, but expected. Tate looked more solid and had less body fat, which I expected.

- Barboza/Felder as expected.

- Gomi/Lauzon as expected.

- Lawlor moved up a weight class for this fight and weighed in as much as he could at 203. Villante was still the bigger man and weighed in at 205, and he'll be huge tomorrow after he re-hydrates; Lawlor won't get any bigger.

- Castillo/Miller as expected.

- Robertson/Saunders as expected.

- Caraway/Wineland as expected. However, Caraway is taller than I thought, I always think of him as a short guy, but he was taller than Wineland. I always think of Wineland as being tall for the division for some reason. I like my bet on Caraway even more since he won't be the smaller guy.

- Cruickshank/Krause as expected.

- Holbrook/Nijem as expected.

- Duke/Phillips as expected.

- Cummings/Steele as expected. However, people keep talking about how big Cummings is for the division, yet he was barely bigger than Steele. Cummings is the better fighter, but there won't be a size advantage.

On July 24 2015 21:39 soberstone wrote: After all the hoopla, Barao still had to drop trow just to make weight on the dot. Not a good sign. Him looking like death is no surprise but still, he looked like death.

Guess we watched different weigh-ins. Barao looked fine, and he seemed in a good mood when he was talking to his friend who walked out with him. Having to take off his shorts isn't a big deal, imo. Dillashaw is still the same favorite as before the weigh-ins, nothing about the weigh-ins should make him a bigger favorite.

I don't think the weigh-ins should make him a bigger favorite either, I expected him to look bad and he did (IMO, we obv disagree there)

I think the fact that TJ is gonna dominate him should make him a bigger favorite than he is. I have no clue why the odds are so close, this fight is not close in my mind as previously stated.

If Renan lands something huge and wins in Rd 1 I'll probably have that hedged, but if anything other than that happens and he wins, I'll be happy to eat crow.

On July 24 2015 21:51 soberstone wrote: I don't think the weigh-ins should make him a bigger favorite either, I expected him to look bad and he did (IMO, we obv disagree there)

Out of the betting forums I go to, you're literally the only person I've seen that said Barao looked bad.

He might not have looked the way you expected him to, but it was a good cut for him.

I still like o4.5 +145, Barao ML +195, and Barao submission +800. I think this will the distance unless Barao hurts Dillashaw early and gets a finish.

Yah the general perception is that Barao looked good, I'm seeing the same feedback as you.

219284977
TNT RENAN BARAO WINS IN ROUND 1 +800 $70.00 $560.00

The big hedge. I see better odds elsewhere but w/e, don't expect it to hit obv. Will put a little more on it if it got to +1000

I think Barao is more likely to go for a submission if he hurts Dillashaw. I like Barao submission +800 better than Barao wins in round 1 +800. You're limiting yourself so much with the round 1 bet.

On July 24 2015 22:00 soberstone wrote: Yah the general perception is that Barao looked good, I'm seeing the same feedback as you.

Looking good for Barao, and Looking good for Dillashaw, is not same.

For Barao, just making weight and not looking like death is good lol.

On July 24 2015 22:33 PuertoRican wrote: I think Barao is more likely to go for a submission if he hurts Dillashaw. I like Barao submission +800 better than Barao wins in round 1 +800. You're limiting yourself so much with the round 1 bet.

You may very well be right and I'm always open to criticism and to discuss the fights because it can only benefit us, but it sounds like you didn't read what I wrote about the fight and why I think Barao only has a chance in the 1st.

I know you disagree with the notion but I've explained why I feel this way.

If you feel, as I do, that Barao is a dangerous finisher but an overhill, overrated, and vastly outmatched fighter who should be a huge dog in this fight and will be pretty much out of it by Rd 2, than the best hedge is a 1st rd finish.

Just 1 man's opinion. Will let the results speak for themselves on how much people should value it. I've been very hot lately and have won on 10+ events in a row (aside from a $20.00 parlay on that shitty Titan event) and tripled my bankroll (not really a bankroll since I'm not adhering to 5 unit maximums, full disclosure there) all well documented on this sight, but maybe it's just an upswing and I'm a fish, very possible and I'm not being sarcastic.

Hopefully the moment comes that I know beyond a reasonable doubt that this is truly very profitable, and would start betting much more.

On July 24 2015 22:44 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 24 2015 22:33 PuertoRican wrote: I think Barao is more likely to go for a submission if he hurts Dillashaw. I like Barao submission +800 better than Barao wins in round 1 +800. You're limiting yourself so much with the round 1 bet. If you feel, as I do, that Barao is a dangerous finisher but an overhill, overrated, and vastly outmatched fighter who should be a huge dog in this fight and will be pretty much out of it by Rd 2, than the best hedge is a 1st rd finish.

I don't feel that way, nor should you. I won't bother typing up a long reply of text, as you already have your mind made up on the entire fight, but I will say that you shouldn't have as narrow of a view on the fight as you currently do.

So yeah, this is where we differ.

Fair enough, just eat your crow if it's a blow-out and I'll eat mine, even if I win, if the fight is close. I'd say that's a fair enough proposition.

Disclaimer - Does not apply if Barao gets a 1st rd finish

Lol Tom lawlor wearing a lot of Reebook clothes.

Added a bet on Duke at +141 and threw her in a parlay as well.

I just watched Philips last 2 fights and Dukes last 3 and I feel like 4-horsewomen hate has finally gone too far.

Bookies opened Duke as a slight fav and she's moved to a fair dog. I feel like people are just fading Phillips because the 4-horsewoman have turned about to be a joke.

After watching the tape, it is apparent that Duke isn't good (doesn't use reach well at all and has bad fat IQ) but is still a better striker than Phillips, and can probably use her Thai plumb (which is actually pretty good) and look for subs when Phillips inevitably tries to wrestle her.

Phillips hates getting hit and for what it's worth - not much - Duke did fight and sub her as an amateur.

Phillips can certainly win, especially if she gets a good start by landing her one good strike - an overhand right. Or more likely, she could feasibly wrestle fuck Duke. But I lean Duke slightly and therefore like her as a dog.

On July 24 2015 22:58 soberstone wrote: Fair enough, just eat your crow if it's a blow-out and I'll eat mine, even if I win, if the fight is close. I'd say that's a fair enough proposition. Disclaimer - Does not apply if Barao gets a 1st rd finish

I agree more with you on this particular fight but I'm not sure why he has to eat crow if you're correct on a single fight and you seem to be the one pushing your opinion hard

Would like to root for Barao though. At least partially to see TJ's coach knocked down a peg or eight. Some weird passive aggressive vibe he has in taking as much credit as he possibly can as a coach while talking nonsense shit

Other couple thoughts...Barao didn't look great for an average fighter stepping up to the weight scale. But I thought he looked a lot better than what he usually looks like

The one time I saw Duke fight, I remember thinking to myself that she has to be one of the most hittable professional fighters I've ever seen. Hopefully for her face's sake, she's improved that a little

I personally know soberstone is most likely right about barao losing again, as most experts agree with him, but i couldn't resist betting Barao at +210. I'm a fish i guess

$50 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/45552...mma-dillashaw-vs-barao-ii-725-T-free/

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/4544...lashaw-vs-barao-ii-725-T-free/581428/

On July 25 2015 03:14 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 24 2015 22:58 soberstone wrote: Fair enough, just eat your crow if it's a blow-out and I'll eat mine, even if I win, if the fight is close. I'd say that's a fair enough proposition. Disclaimer - Does not apply if Barao gets a 1st rd finish I agree more with you on this particular fight but I'm not sure why he has to eat crow if you're correct on a single fight and you seem to be the one pushing your opinion hard Would like to root for Barao though. At least partially to see TJ's coach knocked down a peg or eight. Some weird passive aggressive vibe he has in taking as much credit as he possibly can as a coach while talking nonsense shit

Because when one person gives a full explanation of their thoughts on their fight, and the other just picks the other guy and says "I don't feel this way, and nor should you", they get to eat crow when they are wrong.

Why is eating crow so terrible? I was positive Cain Valasquez was gonna maul Verdum and he got raped. I gave a full explanation of why I felt that way and was completely off. Crow was eaten. Big deal.

And what does pushing your opinion hard mean? Feeling strongly about a fight and explaining my thoughts on it?.... I guess. To me, that's called having a strong opinion, not pushing it hard. I haven't felt this confident about someone winning in the main event since Valasquez (again, was completely wrong about that one) - and if I feel strongly and feel like there is money to be made, why not explain why?

I thought it meant telling someone else they "should" feel differently about a fight. That would seem to be more of the "pushing your opinion hard" variety to me.....

Either way, all good, I just don't want to be misinterpreted. I respect Rican's opinion and especially his effort on making these posts...I respect yours...... you both seem knowledgeable when posting..... gl on all your bets!

Also, I agree with the Ludwig statement. I heard his interview this week on Sirius where he ripped on Alpha Male and took those passive aggressive shots for seemingly no reason. Obviously he is insecure, pissed, and there are sour grapes there. Not a fan of the guy, but huge respect to his coaching, can't really think of a guy evolving under a system so quickly as TJ under his. Even Chad's striking vs Barao in the second fight was clearly improved and I'd say Ludwig must have helped him too.

Hey Sobertstone, i think the point of these threads is to dicuss the fights and betting, don't feel bad about doing so. Most experts opinion 100% agree with you on Dillashaw. I'm personally going Barao, but its probably a fish move =)

On July 25 2015 18:04 Floofy wrote: Hey Sobertstone, i think the point of these threads is to dicuss the fights and betting, don't feel bad about doing so. Most experts opinion 100% agree with you on Dillashaw. I'm personally going Barao, but its probably a fish move =)

Appreciate it. Who knows though..... MMA fights..... the result will probably find a way to make us all wrong,

Why are you feelin Renan (betting wise)? Anything you see in particular that might play favorably for him or more of a gut feeling that the odds are too wide?

All my bets:

+ Show Spoiler +

Headed over the Sherdog studios here in LA to watch the fight with my boy TJ. If you listen to Beatdown After the Bell I'll be there. GL HF!

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

I just bought out of my parlay. Break even if Duke wins, tiny profit if Phillips and Cummings win.

You guys think there's value on James Krause ?

On July 25 2015 20:28 Minsk wrote: You guys think there's value on James Krause ?

The line should be closer, but I wouldn't recommend betting on either guy, as both are flawed. Gun to the head, I'd bet Cruickshank.

Krause could easily be on a 5-fight losing streak in the UFC:

- He was losing the fight against Stout until a 3rd round submission while on his back.
- He lost to Green for flopping to the ground and acting like he got hit in the nuts too many times and it was ruled a TKO in the end.
- Varner was doing good against Krause until Varner broke his ankle in the 1st round. He wasn't able to start the 2nd round, so it was ruled a TKO win for Krause.
- He lost to a better fighter in Jorge Masvidal.
- He lost to a random Brazilian in Valmir Lazaro. Krause was just too inactive in the fight and lost the fight due to himself, not cuz Lazaro was good.

On July 25 2015 18:24 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 25 2015 18:04 Floofy wrote: Hey Sobertstone, i think the point of these threads is to dicuss the fights and betting, don't feel bad about doing so. Most experts opinion 100% agree with you on Dillashaw. I'm personally going Barao, but its probably a fish move =) Appreciate it. Who knows though..... MMA fights..... the result will probably find a way to make us all wrong, Why are you feelin Renan (betting wise)? Anything you see in particular that might play favorably for him or more of a gut feeling that the odds are too wide?

Prior to his fight against Dillashaw, Barao was arguably the most dominant UFC fighter of all time.

I think the reason he got owned so bad is a combo of renan missing weight (it is proven missing weight greatly reduce your odds to win), getting rocked hard early (which can happen even to the best of the best), and Dillishaw having a style which counters Renan.

This time, he hasnt missed weight, he probably won't get rocked again, and he might have adjusted his style properly.

Of course, i realize i'm optimistic

The fuck.....I had Ramsey by decision and straight up.......robbery

There's literally no possible way you could score that for Holbrook. Just watching the fight, it was clear who won the fight. If you look at the stats, it is clear who won the fight.

I just don't understand how 2 judges could give Holbrook that fight, and I'm not the only one.

FUCKING RIDICULOUS!

i could see giving r2 to Holbrook. But how did they give r3 to Holbrook??? Nijem owned him everywhere. Got the take down, 3x more striked, 3x more SS. All Holbrook had is a failed sub attempt.

Who would have thought Caraway would win the standup

On July 25 2015 22:35 gebbstet wrote: Who would have thought Caraway would win the standup

Not me... ...unfortunately.

oh shit main card starts in 1h30, damn!

if its on fox do they have some stream for free?

You can watch it on fight pass, there is a free 7days trail available.

They should have betting odds on who they're going to give the decision to.

Saunders with the robbery win, but I'll take it.

My asshole is still healing up from getting raped in that Nijem decision loss.

any other stream option?? this vipbox and firstrow are aids tonight

On July 25 2015 23:07 drone666 wrote: any other stream option?? this vipbox and firstrow are aids tonight

vipbox works fine for me

I'm with Barao on this one. Better prepared and adjusted, also team alpha male on a downswing might rub off on TJ lol

On July 25 2015 23:07 PuertoRican wrote: Saunders with the robbery win, but I'll take it. My asshole is still healing up from getting raped in that Nijem decision loss.

LOL i followed you on saunders, good win to make up for Ramsey

.

Lawlor with the 1-punch KO~

No bet on him though.

think it was early stoppage
refs and judges fucking up tonight

Not really early imo, he could have given him a few more seconds but Gian could barely stand after while complaining to the referee.

On July 25 2015 16:53 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On July 25 2015 03:14 iakim322 wrote:   On July 24 2015 22:58 soberstone wrote: Fair enough, just eat your crow if it's a blow-out and I'll eat mine, even if I win, if the fight is close. I'd say that's a fair enough proposition. Disclaimer - Does not apply if Barao gets a 1st rd finish I agree more with you on this particular fight but I'm not sure why he has to eat crow if you're correct on a single fight and you seem to be the one pushing your opinion hard Would like to root for Barao though. At least partially to see TJ's coach knocked down a peg or eight. Some weird passive aggressive vibe he has in taking as much credit as he possibly can as a coach while talking nonsense shit Because when one person gives a full explanation of their thoughts on their fight, and the other just picks the other guy and says "I don't feel this way, and nor should you", they get to eat crow when they are wrong. Why is eating crow so terrible? I was positive Cain Valasquez was gonna maul Verdum and he got raped. I gave a full explanation of why I felt that way and was completely off. Crow was eaten. Big deal. And what does pushing your opinion hard mean? Feeling strongly about a fight and explaining my thoughts on it?.... I guess. To me, that's called having a strong opinion, not pushing it hard. I haven't felt this confident about someone winning in the main event since Valasquez (again, was completely wrong about that one) - and if I feel strongly and feel like there is money to be made, why not explain why? I thought it meant telling someone else they "should" feel differently about a fight. That would seem to be more of the "pushing your opinion hard" variety to me..... Either way, all good, I just don't want to be misinterpreted. I respect Rican's opinion and especially his effort on making these posts...I respect yours...... you both seem knowledgeable when posting..... gl on all your bets! Also, I agree with the Ludwig statement. I heard his interview this week on Sirius where he ripped on Alpha Male and took those passive aggressive shots for seemingly no reason. Obviously he is insecure, pissed, and there are sour grapes there. Not a fan of the guy, but huge respect to his coaching, can't really think of a guy evolving under a system so quickly as TJ under his. Even Chad's striking vs Barao in the second fight was clearly improved and I'd say Ludwig must have helped him too.

I wasn't really attacking you. Just seemed like he was simply reminding you to keep a wider view on things while you felt so strongly about one possibility of the way a fight is going to go to the point that it seemed like you were getting needlessly defensive. No big deal. Just an observation. I do respect your analysis and that you put yourself out there willingly on bets then do go back and 'eat crow' if you were wrong. MMA has a way of making you feel very right or very wrong in so many separate instances though.

Regarding Ludwig...there's one thing to have confidence and pride in being a good coach. It's another to say something ridiculous like 'other people besides my student don't WANT to be a champion.' One amongst much other nonsense he spouted of why he knows everything and other's don't. Just really douchey in general and disrespectful to someone like Chad Mendes who fought with heart and was seemingly very close to being champ twice.

On July 25 2015 23:52 drone666 wrote: think it was early stoppage refs and judges fucking up tonight

In no way was that an early stoppage...and I have Villante in my lineups so I was rooting for the ref to back off. Guy could barely keep straight for a full 5 seconds after getting up.

The Villante stoppage looked early, but then when he tried to stand up, his leg was wobbly and he couldn't stand straight.

nvm heard wrong

thats a new version of a walkaway ko

edit; bruce buffer be like "Fighter Joe Lauzon has called a stop to this fight at..."

On July 26 2015 00:20 gebbstet wrote: thats a new version of a walkaway ko

^

"Yo fck this. This guy is done." Stands up willingly w/o a ref stopping him from smashing a helpless guy to the side of the head and raises his arms. Baller Joe Lauzon.

Oh and hey props soberstone. Lauzon was my only lean on this event and your type up early on pushed me to place it.

That's 2 KO losses in a row for Gomi, after never being knocked out in his entire career.

To be fair, any human has a high probability of getting KO'd if they're flattened out on their back by a professional fighter. Don't think it's really a chin problem on display tonight if that's what you're implying. He's simply going to get KO'd more from age and slowing down in other facets of his game from...age. If he decides to keep fighting that is...when he's clearly beyond over the hill.

http://freefootylive.net/ufcc1/

got this HD stream

Barboza vs. Felder was a fun striking battle. Expected a KO though.

One of the more intense, fun striking fights where neither actually got significantly hurt.

Maybe it plays away from his strengths but Felder needs to learn to keep his punches snappier and load up less

dddddaaaaaattttt aaaaaasssssssss

Okey, lets see if this fight can bring some excitement to the bantamweight division. Really hoping for a close fight, that would make things really interesting for the return of Cruz.

On July 26 2015 01:48 gebbstet wrote: Okey, lets see if this fight can bring some excitement to the bantamweight division. Really hoping for a close fight, that would make things really interesting for the return of Cruz.

Cruz won't be back in 2015. The UFC could give him an instant title shot when he comes back, but it would be best to give him another fight first so the fans remember him.

By the time Cruz fights again, he'll have only fought 1 time in the past 4+ years, and his 1 fight in that time was a fast TKO that most people won't remember by the time he fights again.

Good first round,

edit:
r1.10-9 TJ
r2.10-9 TJ
r3 10-9 TJ, expecting a finish in the next round

Barao's cardio is gone in round 2. I don't remember seeing where he got hit hard, but when they got off the cage, he seemed dazed or something.

omg how did barao not go down from those punches

damn, brutal ;/
sad to see barao losing this way
I had a bunch of money in the under tho, so Im half happy

Good performance by Dillashaw. Good, but not great. He was standing still a lot, just poking at Barao instead of doing his normal style of attack against a stationary target.

As for Barao, he was gassed in round 2, so he was a sitting duck for almost 2-full rounds. He needs to move up in weight now.

Overall, there was some decent fights on the card, but not an amazing card.

Weird how one fight changes your entire perception of a fighter...even one who's fought like forty times like Barao. Pre TJ, I thought he was powerful, athletic, and quick enough. Tonight, he looked like a pretty regular strong guy with a few strong kicks who's relatively so slow that it's hard to imagine not long ago, people were calling him p4p #1. He looked really slow even pre-fatigue and counting in that his opponent is quick.

Sad for barao. I like him, but he is as delusional as i was when i was hoping that he would win this fight. Dillashaw is a level above him at striking, way more technical and accurate, plus he has the wrestling adv. I was hoping "no autopilot" barao would be quicker but now i realize if they fought 10 times tj would come out the winner 10 times. Maybe theres room for a lucky punch. Im hoping he gets a reality check and tries to improve somehow.

Wow. I thought Dillashaw's cardio looked really suspect compared to before.... but fuck it, ship it. Odds were so off, even a shittier looking version of TJ destroyed a fading Renan. Poor bastard and than Herb lets him get raped against the cage for what felt like an eternity.

+$490.66 on the night.

YTD: +3266.46

+ Show Spoiler +

On July 25 2015 23:07 PuertoRican wrote: Saunders with the robbery win, but I'll take it. My asshole is still healing up from getting raped in that Nijem decision loss.

Dude WTF was up with that decision. I didn't have money on it like you so I'm sorry, that was fucking terrible

On July 26 2015 02:20 gebbstet wrote: omg how did barao not go down from those punches

I arguably think the fight was stopped early. Barao did not look good, but he was throwing punches. I feel this was WAY less bad than what happened to Mark Hunt Against Miocic. Hunt was eating way stronger punched and defending even less, and they weren't stopping it.

That being said, he was done, Dean saved him damage that is all.

On July 26 2015 02:22 PuertoRican wrote: Good performance by Dillashaw. Good, but not great. He was standing still a lot, just poking at Barao instead of doing his normal style of attack against a stationary target. As for Barao, he was gassed in round 2, so he was a sitting duck for almost 2-full rounds. He needs to move up in weight now. Overall, there was some decent fights on the card, but not an amazing card.

Because beating Aldo/Mendes/Conor/Edgar will be so much more easier....
I think he's better in his #1 rank bantanweight he is right now.

On July 26 2015 02:36 Raidern wrote: Sad for barao. I like him, but he is as delusional as i was when i was hoping that he would win this fight. Dillashaw is a level above him at striking, way more technical and accurate, plus he has the wrestling adv. I was hoping "no autopilot" barao would be quicker but now i realize if they fought 10 times tj would come out the winner 10 times. Maybe theres room for a lucky punch. Im hoping he gets a reality check and tries to improve somehow.

Barao did land some lucky power punches, but Dillashaw smiled =(

Barao either needs to retire or move up for sure. Unquestionably. He'll never be a champion again regardless, never again starve your body and get concussed, please.

Soberstone i can't believe your up for the night. Me and PuertoRicain both got killed, and the betting site i read, everyone got murdered tonight.

Do you have skype?

I'm def not as good as you, but i'm starting to think my really low win rate recently can be a good tool!!! I should bet the opposite of what i think, PROFIT!

On July 26 2015 03:17 Floofy wrote: Soberstone i can't believe your up for the night. Me and PuertoRicain both got killed, and the betting site i read, everyone got murdered tonight. Do you have skype? I'm def not as good as you, but i'm starting to think my really low win rate recently can be a good tool!!! I should bet the opposite of what i think, PROFIT!

Tonight was kind of lucky to be honest because I missed on a ton of fights and cheap parlays but hit on the Lawler KO prop at +1000 and Dillashaw rd 4 ko prop (not as lucky, I really thought this was a strong possibility as I wrote before) at +1200. Plus my big bets were on Dillashaw and Lauzon (got him at pre-line movement which helped a lot).

I don't have Skype but I'll DL it, pm me your user name

Free Stitch!

Threw 100 on lauzon tate dillashaw parlay so made a bit on top of straight bet on lauzon. But lost my bet on felder. Need to branch out from bovada for prop access

The #1 way I've been succeeding is beating line movement, so I'm hopping on next weeks card early and will progress as the lines move, I study the fights, and props come out, especially for hedging.

319500287-1 7/26/15 12:15am $150.00 $136.07 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

Gadelha is going to beat Aguilar IMO, she's far far better. Its Joanna Champion, her, and then everyone else. And Aguilar's bread and butter is her grappling.... doubt she out grapples Gadelha.

Rousey by submission at -260? WTF. Love it. Her KO of McMann was an early stoppage and that Alexis Davis KO was awesome but like, how many times do you KO somebody slamming them. I think it was spectacular but not likely to happen anytime soon. So really, we've got 2 flukyish (arguable, but that's my take) KO's and a girl who has ambarred everyone else she's faced in less than a round besides Meisha, vs a striker who is levels upon levels below Rousey in the clinch and on the ground. How is a submission at -260. I see it as a much bigger favorite than that..... like almost a foregone conclusion.

Also, Lil Nog as a +150 dog to Shogun? Why? I think this line sharpens, and rightfully so, that's a pickem fight at first glance. Shogun is a shot fighter, and I'm sure Lil Nog is too but getting blasted by Anthony Johnson after beating Rashad Evans and KOing Ortiz is much more impressive than anything Shogun has done since Jon Jones took his soul.

319501226-1 7/26/15 12:26am $40.00 $60.00 Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +150* vs Mauricio Rua

More parlays with a mixture of the above:

319501172-1 7/26/15 12:24am $30.00 $54.46 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Soa Palelei -210* vs Antonio Silva
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

319501214-1 7/26/15 12:26am $30.00 $341.89 Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +150* vs Mauricio Rua
Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1502 Antonio Silva +160* vs Soa Palelei
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

Barao set a very high pace in the beginning and that was the reason I believe that TJ cardio looked suspect compared to before. He looked even better than the last fight imo. The guy keeps improving and his movement and striking are joy to watch. Lets hope that Cruz stays healthy because a fight with TJ should be great.

btw Herb Dean is the most overrated referee in the game . Pathetic late stoppage .

On July 26 2015 11:54 northsails wrote: Barao set a very high pace in the beginning and that was the reason I believe that TJ cardio looked suspect compared to before. He looked even better than the last fight imo. The guy keeps improving and his movement and striking are joy to watch. Lets hope that Cruz stays healthy because a fight with TJ should be great. btw Herb Dean is the most overrated referee in the game . Pathetic late stoppage .

I disagree. Barao was very clearly trying to defend. If Barao wanted it stopped he wouldn't have acted the way he did. He actually seemed pissed of the early stoppage.
This is def not on the level of Hunt vs Miocic

On July 26 2015 04:20 soberstone wrote: 319501172-1 7/26/15 12:24am $30.00 $54.46 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Soa Palelei -210* vs Antonio Silva Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result 319501214-1 7/26/15 12:26am $30.00 $341.89 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +150* vs Mauricio Rua Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1502 Antonio Silva +160* vs Soa Palelei Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -260* vs Any other result

100% agree on Gadelha man. I would personally even bet on her against Joanna if the odds are good.

On July 26 2015 14:19 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On July 26 2015 11:54 northsails wrote: Barao set a very high pace in the beginning and that was the reason I believe that TJ cardio looked suspect compared to before. He looked even better than the last fight imo. The guy keeps improving and his movement and striking are joy to watch. Lets hope that Cruz stays healthy because a fight with TJ should be great. btw Herb Dean is the most overrated referee in the game . Pathetic late stoppage . I disagree. Barao was very clearly trying to defend. If Barao wanted it stopped he wouldn't have acted the way he did. He actually seemed pissed of the early stoppage. This is def not on the level of Hunt vs Miocic

This is not a fight to death. Barao was out on his feet and ate 10 more punches. He was dominated the entire fight and barely survived round 3. He was done.

And if I remember correctly you were defending the Hunt vs Miocic stoppage as well.

It was pretty clear to me yesterday that Herb Dean has some serious second guessing issues right now.

He had terribly early stoppages in the Faber v Barao II (where Faber had his thumb up and was blocking Barao's shots) and Rousey vs McMann (basically, I hate to say this, a gender-based stoppage where McMann falls to a body shot and he INSTANTLY steps in.... never would have happened in a male fight, ever....)

Some people were criticizing his McGregor over Mendes stoppage, which I thought was fine, but still added to the narrative that Herb is stopping fights too soon....

So now, he watches Gomi get blasted unconscious and can't even pull the trigger on the stoppage until Lauzon just walks away.... than he let's Barao take 5+ completely unnecessary, clean shots to his auto-pilot body that's being held up by the fence, and this right after the end of round 3 where everyone and their mother knew Barao was already done.... just bad stuff.

I'm ready to call Herb Dean a poor ref at this point. A good ref isn't going to second guess himself due to the past and that's exactly what I see happening.

Added more bets on Rousey via sub.... line moved to -180. I understand it might not hit.... she may TKO Betche. But she's a -1500 favorite and you can get her by submission at under 1:2.... this just amazes me.

Also put another put on Lil Nog who's odds got even better.... +170. Line shot back down to +148 since. Still think it ends up closer to a pickem.

And.... all the basic lines are out on 5 dimes... just put down 1 of probably 2 hail mary's:

319588475-1 7/26/15 5:00pm $8.50 $416.28 Pending 8 Team Parlay
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +145* vs Mauricio Rua
Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Stefan Struve -190* vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Pending 8/1/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1501 Soa Palelei -195* vs Antonio Silva
Pending 8/1/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Claudia Gadelha -265* vs Jessica Aguilar
Pending 8/1/15 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1701 Neil Magny -115* vs Demian Maia
Pending 8/1/15 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1902 Warlley Alves -270* vs Nordine Taleb
Pending 8/1/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2102 Clint Hester -160* vs Vitor Miranda
Pending 8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1039 Rousey wins by submission -185* vs Any other result

Pissed Magney opened at +150 and I missed it by a matter of minutes. I think it's a very close fight but I really like his style to outwork Maia and avoid his grappling.

Happy to have gotten my big bets on Gadelha + Rousey sub in, as predicted Gadelha already up to -350.

I'm seriously concerned for Barao's brain cells.

Also the Barao stoppage was way late.