UFC FN 68: Boetsch vs. Henderson

Date: Saturday, June 6th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Tim Boetsch (18-8) vs. Dan Henderson (30-13) (Middleweight)
Ben Rothwell (34-9) vs. Matt Mitrione (9-3) (Heavyweight)
Dustin Poirier (17-4) vs. Yancy Medeiros (11-2) (Lightweight)
Thiago Tavares (19-5-1) vs. Brian Ortega (8-0) (Featherweight)
Joe Soto (15-3) vs. Anthony Birchak (11-2) (Bantamweight)
Francisco Rivera (10-4) vs. Alex Caceres (10-7) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Shawn Jordan (17-6) vs. Derrick Lewis (12-3) (Heavyweight)
Brian Ebersole (51-16-1) vs. Omari Akhmedov (14-2) (Welterweight)
Chris Wade (9-1) vs. Christos Giagos (11-3) (Lightweight)
Joe Proctor (10-3) vs. Justin Edwards (8-4) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Ricardo Abreu (5-0) vs. Jake Collier (8-2) (Middleweight)
Jose Quinonez (3-2) vs. Leonardo Morales (4-1) (Bantamweight)

Other

- The event was expected to be headlined by a light heavyweight bout between top contenders Daniel Cormier and Ryan Bader. However on April 28, due to Jon Jones' hit-and-run incident leading up to his fight at UFC 187 against Anthony Johnson, the UFC decided to strip him of the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship and suspend him indefinitely. Jones was replaced by Cormier. In turn, a middleweight bout between Tim Boetsch and mixed martial arts legend Dan Henderson was promoted to the main event. Subsequently, Bader was pulled from the event entirely.
- Alan Jouban was expected to face Brian Ebersole at the event. However, Jouban pulled out of the fight in late March citing injury and was replaced by Omari Akhmedov.
- Zubaira Tukhugov was expected to face Thiago Tavares at the event. However on April 25, it was announced that Tukhugov had to pull out of the fight due to an undisclosed injury. Brian Ortega was announced as his replacement on May 6.
- Daniel Sarafian was expected to face Ricardo Abreu at this event. However on May 4, Sarafian was forced to withdraw from the event due to injury and was replaced by Jake Collier.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Boetsch > Henderson
• Mitrione > Rothwell
• Poirier > Medeiros
• Ortega > Tavares
• Birchak > Soto
• Rivera > Caceres
• Jordan > Lewis
• Ebersole vs. Akhmedov (dunno)
• Wade vs. Giagos (dunno, close fight.)
• Proctor > Edwards
• Abreu > Collier
• Quinonez vs. Morales (dunno, close fight.)

I really hope Henderson wins and retires. It would have been awful to retire after the TRT ban, but at the same time I doubt he can keep up for much longer being 44 years old and off TRT. He's an underdog against Boetsch and probably rightfully so. I had a couple lines that I liked, but probably most notably Jordan at +100 just a bit concerned about his chin.

I will bet on Hendo (+160) and Mittrione by KO. Boetsch is pretty bad I think even old Hendo is better than him.

Put a bet on Boetsch after 5 minutes of thinking before the price gets any worse.

On June 01 2015 22:01 Minsk wrote: Put a bet on Boetsch after 5 minutes of thinking before the price gets any worse.

Boetsch's line will get better during the next 4-5 days. He was at -194 a few hours ago on Bookmaker, and is now at -185.

The longer people have to think about Boetsch/Henderson, the more they'll want to bet Hendo at plus odds because he's a legend in the game, and he's only lost to elite competition, while Boetsch isn't considered elite.

While Henderson has only lost to elite competition, he's basically 0-6 in his last 6 fights, imo. I label his TKO over Shogun as Hendo landing a lucky punch. Shogun was beating Hendo's ass for 2 straight rounds prior to Hendo landing 1 punch in the 3rd round. He's also been finished in his last 3 losses.

Boetsch might not have the same name value as Hendo's last 6 opponents, nor have the ability to beat them, but I would argue that Boetsch is more well-rounded than those opponents. I think Matt Hume will have a good game plan prepared to beat the old lion in Dan Henderson. I think Boetsch will use a lot of low kicks against Hendo, and possibly even set up a high head kick with the low kicks. Boetsch needs to keep moving from side to side, which won't let Hendo plant his feet and get off a big overhand punch.

Early Picks:

Boetsch v Hendo - Pickem to me, hard to know how far Hendo has fallen off (we all know it's very far, but Boetsch is a damn good litmus test). Obviously like the line on Hendo at +170 but wouldn't put a big bet on him,cuz if he's completely shot Boetsch will win. I think Hendo by decision at +735 is pretty legit. Also think the over 1.5 rds at -140 is a steal.

Mitrione > Rothwell - Mitrione just taken way less damage and is a way better athlete, if line gets closer I'd be willing to look at betting him

Poirier > Medeiros - FOTN potential, Poirier definitely has the better all around game but I'm interested to see if he can out-strike Medeirous

Ortega v Tavares - Pickem, good fight to see if Ortega is real legit. Being that neither has KO power and both seem to be high level Jitz guys, pretty sure I like the over at -135. Ortega only has a minute or so of UFC experience and his striking looked sloppy but got a very nice RNC on a low level guy

Soto v Birchak - Dunno yet, gotta watch some Birchak tape, Soto is a pretty damn good, well-rounded fighter who acquitted himself well against Dillashaw IMO, but I know Birchak has some solid hype behind him

Rivera > Cacares - Pissed, Cacares was a favorite, now Rivera is at -115, like the line a lot still, gonna place a bet now and than see what the prop on a KO is when they're available on Maker. Don't really understand this line, Rivera was fending off all of Faber's TD's so how is Cacares gonna get him down and initiate scrambles? To me that's the only place he wins

Jordan > Lewis - Really close sort of whoever lands the big shot early fight. If the big shot isn't landed than Jordan becomes a heavy favorite. Will be probably propping Jordan by decision at +835 if that line is available on Maker...

Akhmedov > Ebersole - No real reason besides Ebersoles age

Wade > Giagos - Gotta go with the young wrestler against a mediocre fighter. Gonna watch some tape on Giagos to make sure he's truly mediocre and than might look to bet Wade by decision

Proctor > Edwards - Both guys suck. Proctor is more technical but I just think he sucks and wouldn't lay a penny on him.

No clue about first two fights.

Early bets placed:

Hendo > Boetsch @ +160 - $30
Hendo + Rivera @ +395 - $20
Hendo/Boetsch o 1.5 rds @ -145 - $43.40
Hendo/Boetsch o 1.5 rds + Rivera @ +216 - $30
Rivera > Caceras @ -115 - $57.50

Added:

Mitrione > Rothwell @ -190.00 - $66.50
Birchak > Soto @ +150 - $30.00
Hendo/Boetsch o 1.5 rds + Rivera + Mitrione + Birchak @ + 1154 - $10.00

One thing I realized is that I wasn't really considering the injury of the Faber eye-poke on Rivera. I believe he actually had surgery after that. If he comes back and is a Bisping I'm gonna feel like an ass, but I'd hope he'd be out way longer if it was too serious.

Added:
Proctor + Birchak/Soto o 2.5 @ +170 - $20
Henderson via Decision @ +975 - $15

2011 Hendo would be a really good bet here vs Boetch.
But this Hendo is on a big losing streak and is now 44 yo and off TRT. I think current odds on Boetch are fantastic, should be closer to -300.

On June 02 2015 01:00 soberstone wrote: Early bets placed: Hendo > Boetsch @ +160 - $30 Hendo + Rivera @ +395 - $20 Hendo/Boetsch o 1.5 rds @ -145 - $43.40 Hendo/Boetsch o 1.5 rds + Rivera @ +216 - $30 Rivera > Caceras @ -115 - $57.50

I'm confused.

You said: "Boetsch v Hendo - Pickem to me, hard to know how far Hendo has fallen off (we all know it's very far, but Boetsch is a damn good litmus test). Obviously like the line on Hendo at +170 but wouldn't put a big bet on him,cuz if he's completely shot Boetsch will win."

If Boetsch vs. Hendo is a pickem, and you aren't sure how damaged Hendo is but you clearly know he's damaged goods at this point, why would you add him to a parlay when you already have a separate bet on his money line? If Hendo loses, you lose an additional $20 for no reason. The last sentence further confuses me.

On June 02 2015 01:04 Floofy wrote: 2011 Hendo would be a really good bet here vs Boetch. But this Hendo is on a big losing streak and is now 44 yo and off TRT. I think current odds on Boetch are fantastic, should be closer to -300.

We'll see. That Gegard KO was pretty bad. However, Mousasi is leagues about Boetsch as a striker, Hendo and Boetsch both get ragdolled by DC 100/100 times so that doesn't say shit, Belfort was an absolute animal at the time of their fight, than he lost a SD to Lyoto which was lame but it's still Machida, he lost a SD to Rashad, another lame fight you can't take much from. So I agree with Rican that the fight to look to is the Shogun fight and while he did get his ass whooped for most of the time, I wouldn't rule out the KO as completely random, at a minimum it means the man can get his ass beat handily for 2 rounds and than bomb on you out of nowhere.

If we are gonna be fair and compare both of their records on paper, Tim Boetsch could EASILY be on an 8-fight losing streak! He robbed Dolloway and Lombard, and had fairly fluky but awesome comebacks in fights he was getting wrecked in to Tavares and Okami. He got wrecked by Mark fucking Munoz, Costa fucking Philipou, Luke Rockhold (no shame in that), and most recently was submitted by Laites. The only fight I take anything positive out of really was his loss to Laites as he was getting the better of him on the feet in fairly impressive fashion.

So essentially what you are saying in my mind by setting the line at -300 is that that Hendo must be completely shot >90 percent of the time because he's off TRT, and Tim Boetsch is good enough to take advantage of that all of the time. I think that's pretty cynical.

The thing is, I would actually think he's probably training smart and if he isn't/wasn't cheating on and off the TRT like Vitor clearly was, which I believe Hendo wasn't (has his body hasn't ever changed that much, and he's never had the cardio issues of Vitor, or had his T levels popped off the page, you get my point), his levels are probably higher than they were when he first got off it. I'm not trying to play doctor but I'm pretty sure that's how this should work.

I wouldn't be shocked if Boetsch KO'd Hendo, but most of his KO's come after a guy has basically worn themselves out beating the shit out of him, so how do we assess the possibility of an early KO? I wouldn't say extremely high.

I wouldn't be shocked if Hendo KO'd Boetsch, Boetsch is extremely hittable and Hendo still hits hard as shit a few times per round, maybe he'll be faster too at MW than Boetsch, I certainly think he will be. So I'd put those odds around the same as a Boetsch KO, if not higher, atleast early on in the fight....

Neither is subbing one another early, so now we're talking about a situation that I believe it goes into late round 2 and later 75 % of time and at that point it's likely a close fight, it's gonna be about cardio, grappling, round-winning, durability. I obviously favor Boetsch on the durability and probably cardio front but I'd still favor Hendo on grappling and having the bigger moments in rounds that the judges will score.

On a technical front, TBH, I haven't really broken down individual advantages or disadvantages in how Boetsche's game will likely interact with the 1-dimensional but sometimes effective over-hand right cocked, timing-based, occasional low-kick and occasional pawing-jab stalking style of Hendo but also TBH, that's not my wheelhouse, I'll be interested to see how the 'experts' seeing it play out and if either guy has a real obvious game plan.

With all that said, it will also be interesting to see if Hendo is truly gone, but I don't see any reason he should be handicapped as a fairly substantial dog to Tim Boetsch. I think the UFC found the biggest name that they believe Hendo can beat half the time, and are probably hoping Hendo pulls it off. In this make believe world of mine, I happen to agree with the UFC.

War Hendo at +160.

On June 02 2015 02:35 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 02 2015 01:00 soberstone wrote: Early bets placed: Hendo > Boetsch @ +160 - $30 Hendo + Rivera @ +395 - $20 Hendo/Boetsch o 1.5 rds @ -145 - $43.40 Hendo/Boetsch o 1.5 rds + Rivera @ +216 - $30 Rivera > Caceras @ -115 - $57.50 I'm confused. You said: "Boetsch v Hendo - Pickem to me, hard to know how far Hendo has fallen off (we all know it's very far, but Boetsch is a damn good litmus test). Obviously like the line on Hendo at +170 but wouldn't put a big bet on him,cuz if he's completely shot Boetsch will win." If Boetsch vs. Hendo is a pickem, and you aren't sure how damaged Hendo is but you clearly know he's damaged goods at this point, why would you add him to a parlay when you already have a separate bet on his money line? If Hendo loses, you lose an additional $20 for no reason. The last sentence further confuses me.

A pickem at +160 is worth laying coin down in my book. Just not a big bet. I have a total of what I consider a unit or so on Hendo, makes sense to me. Whether the money is in parlays or individualized, it's completely irrelevant to me seeing value and placing a couple small bets on him.

You are confusing me. If I lose $20 more dollars, it's because I think there is value on the Hendo line and want some of my small bet to be included in a parlay which pays nearly 4:1. What's the problem with that? I have a bigger bet on Rivera > Caceras moneyline.

I know its bad when Floofy agrees with me. but I saw Mousasi beat up a grandfather.

I am betting Yancy Medeiros at +170 here. Poirier is overrated and sucks big time. He has a good ground game but no means to take the fight there. He has power in his striking, but he is always fighting with his chin up in the air and is getting rocked in every single fight against some complete cans like Akira Corassani for example.

The guy is always entertaining so this fight got good potential, but I feel Yancy Medeiros length and striking should give him a slight edge in this fight and I deffo will bet him at +170.

As for Boetsch - Hendo fight I am with soberstone. Can't get myself to bet on Boetsch, even though Hendo is finished. He is just so bad, it just feels wrong to bet at - 190 for Tim fucking Boetsch. I will probably stay away from this fight and hope for Hendo win and retirement.

On June 02 2015 17:26 northsails wrote: I am betting Yancy Medeiros at +170 here. Poirier is overrated and sucks big time. He has a good ground game but no means to take the fight there. He has power in his striking, but he is always fighting with his chin up in the air and is getting rocked in every single fight against some complete cans like Akira Corassani for example. The guy is always entertaining so this fight got good potential, but I feel Yancy Medeiros length and striking should give him a slight edge in this fight and I deffo will bet him at +170. As for Boetsch - Hendo fight I am with soberstone. Can't get myself to bet on Boetsch, even though Hendo is finished. He is just so bad, it just feels wrong to bet at - 190 for Tim fucking Boetsch. I will probably stay away from this fight and hope for Hendo win and retirement.

Many people are on Yancy for the same reasons you listed, me included.

Regarding Boetsch vs. Henderson, the only bet I like is o1.5 rounds. I don't feel comfortable betting either guy, even if the lines were +100/+100.

On June 02 2015 02:41 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 02 2015 01:04 Floofy wrote: 2011 Hendo would be a really good bet here vs Boetch. But this Hendo is on a big losing streak and is now 44 yo and off TRT. I think current odds on Boetch are fantastic, should be closer to -300. We'll see. That Gegard KO was pretty bad. However, Mousasi is leagues about Boetsch as a striker, Hendo and Boetsch both get ragdolled by DC 100/100 times so that doesn't say shit, Belfort was an absolute animal at the time of their fight, than he lost a SD to Lyoto which was lame but it's still Machida, he lost a SD to Rashad, another lame fight you can't take much from. So I agree with Rican that the fight to look to is the Shogun fight and while he did get his ass whooped for most of the time, I wouldn't rule out the KO as completely random, at a minimum it means the man can get his ass beat handily for 2 rounds and than bomb on you out of nowhere. If we are gonna be fair and compare both of their records on paper, Tim Boetsch could EASILY be on an 8-fight losing streak! He robbed Dolloway and Lombard, and had fairly fluky but awesome comebacks in fights he was getting wrecked in to Tavares and Okami. He got wrecked by Mark fucking Munoz, Costa fucking Philipou, Luke Rockhold (no shame in that), and most recently was submitted by Laites. The only fight I take anything positive out of really was his loss to Laites as he was getting the better of him on the feet in fairly impressive fashion. So essentially what you are saying in my mind by setting the line at -300 is that that Hendo must be completely shot >90 percent of the time because he's off TRT, and Tim Boetsch is good enough to take advantage of that all of the time. I think that's pretty cynical. The thing is, I would actually think he's probably training smart and if he isn't/wasn't cheating on and off the TRT like Vitor clearly was, which I believe Hendo wasn't (has his body hasn't ever changed that much, and he's never had the cardio issues of Vitor, or had his T levels popped off the page, you get my point), his levels are probably higher than they were when he first got off it. I'm not trying to play doctor but I'm pretty sure that's how this should work. I wouldn't be shocked if Boetsch KO'd Hendo, but most of his KO's come after a guy has basically worn themselves out beating the shit out of him, so how do we assess the possibility of an early KO? I wouldn't say extremely high. I wouldn't be shocked if Hendo KO'd Boetsch, Boetsch is extremely hittable and Hendo still hits hard as shit a few times per round, maybe he'll be faster too at MW than Boetsch, I certainly think he will be. So I'd put those odds around the same as a Boetsch KO, if not higher, atleast early on in the fight.... Neither is subbing one another early, so now we're talking about a situation that I believe it goes into late round 2 and later 75 % of time and at that point it's likely a close fight, it's gonna be about cardio, grappling, round-winning, durability. I obviously favor Boetsch on the durability and probably cardio front but I'd still favor Hendo on grappling and having the bigger moments in rounds that the judges will score. On a technical front, TBH, I haven't really broken down individual advantages or disadvantages in how Boetsche's game will likely interact with the 1-dimensional but sometimes effective over-hand right cocked, timing-based, occasional low-kick and occasional pawing-jab stalking style of Hendo but also TBH, that's not my wheelhouse, I'll be interested to see how the 'experts' seeing it play out and if either guy has a real obvious game plan. With all that said, it will also be interesting to see if Hendo is truly gone, but I don't see any reason he should be handicapped as a fairly substantial dog to Tim Boetsch. I think the UFC found the biggest name that they believe Hendo can beat half the time, and are probably hoping Hendo pulls it off. In this make believe world of mine, I happen to agree with the UFC. War Hendo at +160.

The reason why i think Hendo is fucked isn't about his record. You have to realize he is 44 years old!!!
I have a graph from fightnometrics which says win rate for any given age... at 39yo its 25%, and the curve seems to really go downward after that.
And as we know, people who go off TRT tends to perform much worse after that.

I think the only person who had ok sucess at 44yo is Randy Couture, but he is the exception, and he he started his career at 30.

My current bets:

Henderson/Boetsch o1.5 -145 $36.25 for $25
Yancy Medeiros +160 $15 for $24
Francisco Rivera +100 $30 for $30

----------

Bets I'm eying:

- Rothwell/Mitrione o1.5 rounds, from -103 to anything better. I'll still bet it at -110, just hoping it'll turn to plus odds like the other bookies.
- Thiago Tavares decision. Something better than it's current line of +172.
- Anthony Birchak +150 or better.
- Shawn Jordan +100 or better. I'll wait until after the weigh-ins for this one. Lewis will obviously get bet once people see the size difference between the two, not to mention Lewis is black as charcoal and looks like he did time in prison (he actually did do time in prison). Jordan already beat Lewis 5 years ago by decision, which everyone seems to have forgot. I'll be interested to see what Jordan's submission prop looks like.
- Omari Akhmedov -125 or better.

The fight that interests me the most on the prelims is Wade vs. Giagos. It might be a close match, but I gotta do some research on Thursday or Friday before I can say for sure.

There's supposedly a lot of value on Collier at +161, but I don't remember anything about him or Abreu, at the moment.

Main event seems like a carnival bet. On one hand you have to bet on a 44 year old getting athletically worse exponentially every day and who's only weapon in the entirety of his fights for the last 5 years has been to walk around trying to bob and weave a bit just so he can try to throw one left hand. Yet the alternative is laying odds for Tim freakin Boetsch in a headliner. Who'll make Henderson's usual 2 outter a ton wider since he must average getting hit over 50 times a round.

A little sad that Boetsch vs 2015 Henderson is actually a main event but the card seems to have some fun fights. Agree with whoever said Medeiros > Poirier. Also think Dustin is overrated, ready to be exposed again and Medeiros is a pretty strong 155'er. I think Mitrione can make for a bunch of fun, competitive fights with the top of the heavyweights not named Cain so looking forward to that one and Jordan/Lewis.

I've agree about Poirier, he is a nifty scrambler and a powerful hitter, fairly low fight IQ it seems considering his porous defense and questionable chin yet being down to brawl, but he looked good in his debut at 55.... but I'm not super sold on Medeiros either... but I can't argue that the line is getting pretty wide. For some reason this is just one of those cards where I'm liking dogs and it seems like most are on this site are, aside from Hendo which is sort of split I guess.

As for a favorite bet I like, what do people think about Mitrione v Rothwell?

I know HW fights are normally too wide with the odds, recent history says so anyway, but I just think it's an incredible matchup for Mitrione who is young in fight years, especially compared to Rothwell, way more athletic, improving far more rapidly than most of the division, has a good chin, has the cardio, and Rothwell isn't exactly a likely candidate for a sub - he KO'd Overeem, bravo.

I'm taking Mitrione even though HW bets have a way of making ya feel like a tard.