UFC FN 65: Miocic vs. Hunt - Page 2

On May 06 2015 05:56 soberstone wrote: As for the Kelly bet Floofy, I say go for it. I think there is value there, but I won't put my money where my mouth is because I've always rooted for Smilin' Sam and he usually wins when I think he's gonna lose and vice versa. He's just an extremely low output volume fighter with legit KO power who takes his time way too much, or maybe just doesn't have the offensive game to put on a pace, but regardless, I think him as a huge favorite is pretty crazy, especially in Australia vs an Auzzie that will assuredly throw more strikes than him. In a fight where the over 1.5 rounds is -150 and the way Alvey wins is most likely a KO or hurting the guy real bad, the line doesn't add up. In fact, in simply typing this I realized I am just gonna throw 10 bucks on Kelly at +315. Bet made. Still fine with Sam KOing him. It's a real win/win. I'll also go out on not too much of a limb at predict that Kelly ends up around +285 by fight time.

I'm personally gonna wait, i think i can get him at +350

But i agree with you. I think Kelly is a really shitty fighter, but they gave him the perfect opponement.

On May 06 2015 21:16 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On May 06 2015 05:56 soberstone wrote: As for the Kelly bet Floofy, I say go for it. I think there is value there, but I won't put my money where my mouth is because I've always rooted for Smilin' Sam and he usually wins when I think he's gonna lose and vice versa. He's just an extremely low output volume fighter with legit KO power who takes his time way too much, or maybe just doesn't have the offensive game to put on a pace, but regardless, I think him as a huge favorite is pretty crazy, especially in Australia vs an Auzzie that will assuredly throw more strikes than him. In a fight where the over 1.5 rounds is -150 and the way Alvey wins is most likely a KO or hurting the guy real bad, the line doesn't add up. In fact, in simply typing this I realized I am just gonna throw 10 bucks on Kelly at +315. Bet made. Still fine with Sam KOing him. It's a real win/win. I'll also go out on not too much of a limb at predict that Kelly ends up around +285 by fight time. I'm personally gonna wait, i think i can get him at +350 But i agree with you. I think Kelly is a really shitty fighter, but they gave him the perfect opponement.

I dunno, Kelly opened at +210 and a bunch of money came in on Alvey, presumably because Kelly was involved the worst MMA fight in the UFC this year not very long ago and if you simply look at Alvey's record he's KO'd much better opposition. I think the sharp money comes in on Kelly for sure.

On May 07 2015 00:33 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 06 2015 21:16 Floofy wrote:   On May 06 2015 05:56 soberstone wrote: As for the Kelly bet Floofy, I say go for it. I think there is value there, but I won't put my money where my mouth is because I've always rooted for Smilin' Sam and he usually wins when I think he's gonna lose and vice versa. He's just an extremely low output volume fighter with legit KO power who takes his time way too much, or maybe just doesn't have the offensive game to put on a pace, but regardless, I think him as a huge favorite is pretty crazy, especially in Australia vs an Auzzie that will assuredly throw more strikes than him. In a fight where the over 1.5 rounds is -150 and the way Alvey wins is most likely a KO or hurting the guy real bad, the line doesn't add up. In fact, in simply typing this I realized I am just gonna throw 10 bucks on Kelly at +315. Bet made. Still fine with Sam KOing him. It's a real win/win. I'll also go out on not too much of a limb at predict that Kelly ends up around +285 by fight time. I'm personally gonna wait, i think i can get him at +350 But i agree with you. I think Kelly is a really shitty fighter, but they gave him the perfect opponement. I dunno, Kelly opened at +210 and a bunch of money came in on Alvey, presumably because Kelly was involved the worst MMA fight in the UFC this year not very long ago and if you simply look at Alvey's record he's KO'd much better opposition. I think the sharp money comes in on Kelly for sure.

Its currently +335 -420, but comes the day of the weight in, 5dimes will reduce it a lot, i expect at least +350, then ill start to really like Kelly.

On May 07 2015 00:44 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2015 00:33 soberstone wrote:   On May 06 2015 21:16 Floofy wrote:   On May 06 2015 05:56 soberstone wrote: As for the Kelly bet Floofy, I say go for it. I think there is value there, but I won't put my money where my mouth is because I've always rooted for Smilin' Sam and he usually wins when I think he's gonna lose and vice versa. He's just an extremely low output volume fighter with legit KO power who takes his time way too much, or maybe just doesn't have the offensive game to put on a pace, but regardless, I think him as a huge favorite is pretty crazy, especially in Australia vs an Auzzie that will assuredly throw more strikes than him. In a fight where the over 1.5 rounds is -150 and the way Alvey wins is most likely a KO or hurting the guy real bad, the line doesn't add up. In fact, in simply typing this I realized I am just gonna throw 10 bucks on Kelly at +315. Bet made. Still fine with Sam KOing him. It's a real win/win. I'll also go out on not too much of a limb at predict that Kelly ends up around +285 by fight time. I'm personally gonna wait, i think i can get him at +350 But i agree with you. I think Kelly is a really shitty fighter, but they gave him the perfect opponement. I dunno, Kelly opened at +210 and a bunch of money came in on Alvey, presumably because Kelly was involved the worst MMA fight in the UFC this year not very long ago and if you simply look at Alvey's record he's KO'd much better opposition. I think the sharp money comes in on Kelly for sure. Its currently +335 -420, but comes the day of the weight in, 5dimes will reduce it a lot, i expect at least +350, then ill start to really like Kelly.

Alvey is also a very small 85er. He cuts no weight and has a gut. Just sayin', You are missing the boat if you wait until weigh-ins.

In case anyone cares, Costas Philippou is +401 on Bookmaker vs Mousasi right now for the following week.

While I hate Philippou and like Mousasi, and think the style matchup is favorable for Gegard, I think those odds are ludicrous considering their careers archs. I put a decent sized bet on Costas and will feel great about it win, lose or draw. That's very good value.

Yeah, I think its good value too. I thinkk both Costas ML and Urijah Faber ML at those odds is great.

On May 07 2015 04:28 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2015 00:44 Floofy wrote:   On May 07 2015 00:33 soberstone wrote:   On May 06 2015 21:16 Floofy wrote:   On May 06 2015 05:56 soberstone wrote: As for the Kelly bet Floofy, I say go for it. I think there is value there, but I won't put my money where my mouth is because I've always rooted for Smilin' Sam and he usually wins when I think he's gonna lose and vice versa. He's just an extremely low output volume fighter with legit KO power who takes his time way too much, or maybe just doesn't have the offensive game to put on a pace, but regardless, I think him as a huge favorite is pretty crazy, especially in Australia vs an Auzzie that will assuredly throw more strikes than him. In a fight where the over 1.5 rounds is -150 and the way Alvey wins is most likely a KO or hurting the guy real bad, the line doesn't add up. In fact, in simply typing this I realized I am just gonna throw 10 bucks on Kelly at +315. Bet made. Still fine with Sam KOing him. It's a real win/win. I'll also go out on not too much of a limb at predict that Kelly ends up around +285 by fight time. I'm personally gonna wait, i think i can get him at +350 But i agree with you. I think Kelly is a really shitty fighter, but they gave him the perfect opponement. I dunno, Kelly opened at +210 and a bunch of money came in on Alvey, presumably because Kelly was involved the worst MMA fight in the UFC this year not very long ago and if you simply look at Alvey's record he's KO'd much better opposition. I think the sharp money comes in on Kelly for sure. Its currently +335 -420, but comes the day of the weight in, 5dimes will reduce it a lot, i expect at least +350, then ill start to really like Kelly. Alvey is also a very small 85er. He cuts no weight and has a gut. Just sayin', You are missing the boat if you wait until weigh-ins.

He's already +355. I still prefer to wait for weigh ins. If he somehow looks really bad or misses weight, then ill wait even longer and get sick odds, but if he looks ok, ill take him right away before the odds switch.

Hunt at + 210 is a bet.

Here is Jack Slack article for the fight - http://fightland.vice.com/blog/the-super-samoan-takes-on-stipe-miocic

On May 08 2015 21:09 northsails wrote: Hunt at + 210 is a bet. Here is Jack Slack article for the fight - http://fightland.vice.com/blog/the-super-samoan-takes-on-stipe-miocic

AGreed hes getting interesting at +210.

If we compare this with CC vs GG, i give Hunt way more of a chance to win than CC had against Gonzaga.

to me, at the current odds, its starting to be a dog or pass.

Well if you want to bet Hunt I'd probably wait, he just came in looking fat as fuck weighing 266, surely more money gonna come in on Stipe who looked great.

I think Perosh by decision @ 4.5 is a great bet.

Whitaker is one of the up-and-comers that I thought had potential and he looks to be in stronger shape than last time.

On May 09 2015 03:03 Minsk wrote: I think Perosh by decision @ 4.5 is a great bet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Perosh#Mixed_martial_arts_record

Yeah, i just looked at it, thought about it, and ended up still liking it.

Miocic ML, Whitaker ML, Perosh DEC, Kelley ML so far.

On May 09 2015 01:58 soberstone wrote: Well if you want to bet Hunt I'd probably wait, he just came in looking fat as fuck weighing 266, surely more money gonna come in on Stipe who looked great.

Yeah, I thought the same. Funny enough the line went down a bit.

On May 09 2015 03:20 Minsk wrote: Yeah, i just looked at it, thought about it, and ended up still liking it.

O conelle is also mostly losing by KO or sub. That fight is essentially the second most likely fight not to go to a decision.

On May 09 2015 12:15 northsails wrote: Show nested quote + On May 09 2015 01:58 soberstone wrote: Well if you want to bet Hunt I'd probably wait, he just came in looking fat as fuck weighing 266, surely more money gonna come in on Stipe who looked great. Yeah, I thought the same. Funny enough the line went down a bit.

Not no more.

I use bookmaker.

Got Miocic at -215, now he's -260.
Got Rawlings at -170, she's now at -195.
Got Whittaker at +135, he's not at +110.
Got Kelley at +315, he's not at +310 (surprised the line has stayed the same relatively, it's gotten closer on most of the other sites)
Putting small bet on Chambers as she's now at +205 (opened at +160).

Hate this card because it sucks for one, but also doesn't have good parlaying opportunities unless your looking for the super high variance home run.

From a fan perspective, only looking forward to the following fights:

Miocic v Hunt
Tavarez v Whittaker
Mathews v Vick
Hioki v Hooker

Basically only the main card minus the awful Perosh vs O'Connell fight