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UFC FN 65: Miocic vs. Hunt

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PuertoRican   United States. May 03 2015 22:54. Posts 13030

Date: Saturday, May 9th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:45 LP.net / 4:45pm PST / 7:45pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 4:00 LP.net / 8pm PST / 11pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Stipe Miocic (12-2) vs. Mark Hunt (10-9-1) (Heavyweight)
Brad Tavares (13-3) vs. Robert Whittaker (13-4) (Middleweight)
Anthony Perosh (15-8) vs. Sean O'Connell (16-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Jake Matthews (8-0) vs. James Vick (7-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Hatsu Hioki (27-8-2) vs. Dan Hooker (11-5) (Featherweight)
Kyle Noke (20-7-1) vs. Jonavin Webb (8-0) (Welterweight)
Dan Kelly (9-0) vs. Sam Alvey (25-6) (Middleweight)
Bec Rawlings (5-4) vs. Lisa Ellis (15-9) (Women's Strawweight)
Dylan Andrews (17-6) vs. Brad Scott (9-3) (Middleweight)
Alex Chambers (4-2) vs. Kailin Curran (3-1) (Women's Strawweight)
Vik Grujic (6-4) vs. Brendan O'Reilly (5-1) (Welterweight)
Alptekin Ozkilic (9-3) vs. Ben Nguyen (13-5) (Flyweight)

Other

- Andreas Stahl was expected to face Kyle Noke at the event. However on April 2, it was announced that Stahl pulled out of the fight due to undisclosed reasons and was replaced by promotional newcomer Jonavin Webb.
- Seo Hee Ham was expected to face Bec Rawlings at the event. However on April 10, Ham pulled out of the bout due to an undisclosed injury and was replaced by Lisa Ellis.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 03/05/2015 22:58

PuertoRican   United States. May 03 2015 22:57. Posts 13030

First impression of the match-ups:

• Miocic > Hunt
• Whittaker > Tavares
• Perosh > O'Connell
• Matthews > Vick
• Hooker > Hioki
• Noke > Webb
• Alvey > Kelly
• Rawlings > Ellis
• Andrews > Scott
• Curran > Chambers
• Grujic vs. O'Reilly (dunno)
• Ozkilic > Nguyen

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 03/05/2015 23:44

Floofy   Canada. May 03 2015 23:39. Posts 8708

Stipe Miocic (12-2) vs. Mark Hunt (10-9-1) (Heavyweight)

I think miocic has this, but you can never really count Hunt out. I think the current odds are about right. I will wait for weight in to make up my mind, but i do see Miocic as a -200 favorite atm.

Brad Tavares (13-3) vs. Robert Whittaker (13-4) (Middleweight)

I went with tavares here. I might regret it, but for some reasons i think hes the better fighter.

Anthony Perosh (15-8) vs. Sean O'Connell (16-6) (Light Heavyweight)

I feel this one is difficult, considering how old Perosh is getting and the bad odds hes getting, but im still betting him. I'm not impressed at all by his opponement. Yes he can take hits, but thats about it imo. I think hes not ufc caliber.

Jake Matthews (8-0) vs. James Vick (7-0) (Lightweight)

I think Matthews is a steal, i hope his odds gets better. I don't see him losing this.

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Hatsu Hioki (27-8-2) vs. Dan Hooker (11-5) (Featherweight)

I really like Hooker here, considering the great odds hes getting. Japanese fighters tend to do horrible in the ufc, Hooker has home advantage, age advantage, taller, better reach. If i can get him at +250 ill go for it.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

Baalim   Mexico. May 04 2015 02:04. Posts 34246

if Miocic can stand with JDS he should easily trade with Hunt early and after round 2 Hunt will be gassed and drawing dead

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Floofy   Canada. May 04 2015 02:51. Posts 8708


  On May 04 2015 01:04 Baalim wrote:
if Miocic can stand with JDS he should easily trade with Hunt early and after round 2 Hunt will be gassed and drawing dead



Hunt isn't Roy Nelson, hes not just a round 1 guy. His only R1 win in the ufc is against Cheik Kongo. I think he can be dangerous the whole match unlike Nelson.
But i do agree Miocic has stood with JDS for 5 rounds AND has made beating Nelson look really easy, so i think he is rightfully a -200 favorite.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(Last edit: 04/05/2015 03:10

Baalim   Mexico. May 04 2015 03:17. Posts 34246


  On May 04 2015 01:51 Floofy wrote:
Show nested quote +



Hunt isn't Roy Nelson, hes not just a round 1 guy. His only R1 win in the ufc is against Cheik Kongo. I think he can be dangerous the whole match unlike Nelson.
But i do agree Miocic has stood with JDS for 5 rounds AND has made beating Nelson look really easy, so i think he is rightfully a -200 favorite.


Hunt has shitty cardio but his style uses very little energy and while gassed he remains competent since he goes to his old style of standing still eating punches with his iron chin but threatening a massive counter but that wont be enough to worry a striker the leve lf Miocic

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

northsails   Bulgaria. May 04 2015 13:39. Posts 410

Let's not forget that Miocic got KTFO'd by Stefan Struve...

If Hunt line goes over +200 I might throw some small bet on him.

No idea and no interest in any other fight on this card.


soberstone   United States. May 04 2015 17:23. Posts 2662

Tough stuff, not a lot of great bets on the card.

Picks:

Miocic > Hunt - Pretty obvious favorite, should be the favorite, should win via superior movement and cardio, but it's HW and both fighters are good. Good fight.

Whitaker > Tavares - Agree with Rican, Tavares is the favorite too - will put a small bet on Whitaker, but I see the fight as a near pickem so not overly confident. Whitaker better hands, Tavares more well-rounded

Perosh > O'Connell - Same as fight above in terms of the odds, small bet on O'Connell probably, Perosh will sub him if it hits the ground though. I saw O'Connell at +200 a week ago and really liked it but the odds have gotten closer

Mathews > Vick - Both large, physical lightweights, Mathews has way more upside, wouldn't touch it at current odds. I probably like the over, both guys tough durable, not very technical but not bad by any means anywhere. Only reason I think it's really close is because Vick has a good style and size to counter what Mathews does best, which is bully and out-athlete people

Hioki > Hooker - Good fight. Small bet on Hooker perhaps, but Hioki is probably better everywhere. Just not by much, and Hooker is younger and insanely durable. If Hioki gets a finish it'll be by sub. Probably fight of the night right here.

Noke v Webb - No clue on who Webb is. If I find some tape on him and he's game, I'd probably take him is Noke is old and very journeyman like at this point, but competent everywhere.

Alvey > Kelly - Odds are really wide.... I think too wide, but Kelly does suck. Alvey is very passive though, would never bet him at -300. Dog or pass.

Rawlings > Ellis - Will probably bet Rawlings, she's got some of the best hands in the division and is physical enough to avoid most of Ellis' grappling IMO

Andrews > Scott - Can never bet Andrews as a favorite, gets hurt all the time and loses in weird ways, but fun guy to watch fight.

Curran > Chambers

O'Reily v Grucik - Dunno, both are bad

Ozkilic v Ngyuen - No clue








 Last edit: 04/05/2015 17:34

alejandicto   . May 04 2015 20:24. Posts 865

Hunt by KO and maybe Miocic by decision


Floofy   Canada. May 04 2015 23:25. Posts 8708


  On May 04 2015 16:23 soberstone wrote:
Hioki > Hooker - Good fight. Small bet on Hooker perhaps, but Hioki is probably better everywhere. Just not by much, and Hooker is younger and insanely durable. If Hioki gets a finish it'll be by sub. Probably fight of the night right here.



Reading you made me even more confident in my Hooker bet.

I think we can't under estimate the odds which says Japanese fighters have lowest win rate, and New Zealand fighters have highest win rate, of all nations. Then, Hooker has home and reach advantage.


  On May 04 2015 16:23 soberstone wrote:
Noke v Webb - No clue on who Webb is. If I find some tape on him and he's game, I'd probably take him is Noke is old and very journeyman like at this point, but competent everywhere



Same here i couldn't find a lot about Webb. Only found very poor quality tape or old stuff, which doesn't mean much. From what i understand, Webb seems dangerous on the ground. I'm leaning toward Noke but i feel like im betting in the dark in this fight.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

Baalim   Mexico. May 05 2015 01:20. Posts 34246


  On May 04 2015 19:24 alejandicto wrote:
Hunt by KO and maybe Miocic by decision



well if anybody betting on Hunt has to bet on the KO theres no way he wins a decision

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Floofy   Canada. May 05 2015 02:32. Posts 8708


  On May 05 2015 00:20 Baalim wrote:
Show nested quote +



well if anybody betting on Hunt has to bet on the KO theres no way he wins a decision


If this was 3 rounds, i could see it happening.

In 5 rounds, i do have trouble imagining Hunt winning by decision.
But if the odds between ML and KO lines are close, i would still take the ML, especially on 5dimes where the ML will get reduced and not the props.

The match could easily go to decision, with Hunt's iron chin, and its Hunt's home town, so a robbery could happen.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

soberstone   United States. May 05 2015 02:42. Posts 2662

I think Hunt by KO will probably end up getting overvalued. Miocic's chin could be gone after his war with JDS but it could also be the same in which case he probably won't get hit nearly as much and took everything JDS had. JDS hits fucking hard.

I think the reason Struve KO'd Miocic was that Miocic punched himself out in the first round of that fight, not cause he has a bad chin. I'd say at this point he has one of the better chins in Heavyweight MMA.

That said, Hunt could land the overhand, right uppercut, or leaping left hook and goodnight.

I could just as easily see him win a decision by hurting Miocic 2 or 3 key times and earning a couple rounds and get outlanded but still win.

Most likely Miocic wins a decision or an impressive late KO.

Edit: If Miocic wins I'd like to see him vs Travis Browne after he dispatches of Arlovski for a title shot.

 Last edit: 05/05/2015 02:43

Floofy   Canada. May 05 2015 02:54. Posts 8708

As an example of what i'm trying to say, in Hunt vs Bigfoot, Hunt's ML was +140, and Hunt's KO line was +158
We gotta admit Hunt by Decision was pretty damn close to happening. 1 Judge gave it to hunt, 2 judges made it a draw.

Of course there's a difference between Bigfoot and Miocic, but the point is just that if the difference between the reduced ML and the KO line is tiny i won't go for the KO line.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(Last edit: 05/05/2015 02:56

alejandicto   . May 05 2015 09:18. Posts 865

I will wait till the end to get a good price for Hunt by KO and thats it


Nazgul    Netherlands. May 05 2015 11:49. Posts 7080

Ben Nguyen is basically an internet hero I'll be rooting for him.




https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comment..._dude_that_knocked_out_the_tatted_up/

Sadly I haven't found any bets for this card. Probably has something to do with knowing less than half the fighters. I thought about betting Hunt for a short while then realized it was idiotic.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmoLast edit: 05/05/2015 11:50

soberstone   United States. May 06 2015 01:20. Posts 2662

Bets laid down today:

Miocic + Rawlings - $40.00 to win $53.08

Whittaker SU - $20.00 to win $27.00

Such a shitty card to bet on... odds are on point for most everything I see and I really don't want to bet against Smilin' Sam. If Hooker gets to +250 or better I'll bet him. If Chambers gets to +200 I'll bet her. If O'Connell gets back up to around +175 I'll bet him.


Floofy   Canada. May 06 2015 01:40. Posts 8708

Dan Kelly (9-0) vs. Sam Alvey (25-6) (Middleweight)

Oh god this fight....

I first analyzed Kelly, and thought he's the worst fighter ever and that i'm betting on Alvey for sure.

Then i watched Alvey's last 2 fights, where he essentially get dominated the whole fight and wins out of nowhere. That's cool, but idk if i want to bet -400 on someone like that.

Honnestly, even thought Kelly sucks, i think me MIGHT have a good style against Alvey. He might suck, but i think he's smart and probably going to avoid any risk and try to win by decision. He also seems to have a decent chin, and this is his Homeland, so he has even more chance to steal a decision.

Oh forgot to add... Alvey has 5.5 inch advantage and is 10 years younger against someone who clearly lacks cardio....

I'm actually leaning toward Kelly but i def won't be ultra confident if i bet on him.

Essentially, Alvey tends to almost always give away the first round. This is a very dangerous thing to do against someone in his Home town over a 3 fight round.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(Last edit: 06/05/2015 01:54

soberstone   United States. May 06 2015 06:56. Posts 2662

Man, just watching some tape on Lisa Ellis to convince myself that I'm right about picking Rawlings (yah, probably should have done that first right? But I know Ellis blows and Rawlings is one of the few female fighters that throws blows like a dude and thought she performed well vs Heather Clarke, who I believe is much better than Lisa Ellis.... mma math :/).

Anyway, just noticing how much these women use headlocks to throw and than proceed to hang onto the headlock from side control in like every women fight that involves a semblance of grappling. It literally does not exist in male mma for the simple reason that you are literally giving up your back from side control if you hold onto a headlock. It absolutely blows me away. I dunno, just thought I'd throw it out there for something to watch for and criticize, I find it funny. Than I cry because I know these 115 lb females could make me their bitch.

As for the Kelly bet Floofy, I say go for it. I think there is value there, but I won't put my money where my mouth is because I've always rooted for Smilin' Sam and he usually wins when I think he's gonna lose and vice versa. He's just an extremely low output volume fighter with legit KO power who takes his time way too much, or maybe just doesn't have the offensive game to put on a pace, but regardless, I think him as a huge favorite is pretty crazy, especially in Australia vs an Auzzie that will assuredly throw more strikes than him. In a fight where the over 1.5 rounds is -150 and the way Alvey wins is most likely a KO or hurting the guy real bad, the line doesn't add up.

In fact, in simply typing this I realized I am just gonna throw 10 bucks on Kelly at +315. Bet made. Still fine with Sam KOing him. It's a real win/win.

I'll also go out on not too much of a limb at predict that Kelly ends up around +285 by fight time.




Stim_Abuser   United States. May 06 2015 09:24. Posts 7499

People forget Stipe actually has really good wrestling. He shouldn't have to out strike Hunt. That said, Stipe's chin isn't iron and his cardio is also very average, and Hunt is always dangerous so I could definitely see him finding Stipes chin at some point over 5 rounds.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

 
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