UFC on FOX 15: Machida vs. Rockhold

Date: Saturday, April 18th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:30 LP.net / 1:30pm PST / 4:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (FOX): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (FOX)

Lyoto Machida (22-5) vs. Luke Rockhold (13-2) (Middleweight)
Ronaldo Souza (21-3) vs. Chris Camozzi (20-9) (Middleweight)
Cub Swanson (21-6) vs. Max Holloway (12-3) (Featherweight)
Felice Herrig (10-5) vs. Paige VanZant (4-1) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox)

Jim Miller (24-5) vs. Beneil Dariush (10-1) (Lightweight)
Ovince Saint Preux (17-6) vs. Patrick Cummins (7-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Corey Anderson (5-0) vs. Gian Villante (12-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Takeya Mizugaki (20-8-2) vs. Aljamain Sterling (10-0) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

George Sullivan (16-3) vs. Tim Means (23-6-1) (Welterweight)
Diego Brandao (18-10) vs. Jimy Hettes (11-2) (Featherweight)
Eddie Gordon (7-2) vs. Chris Dempsey (10-2) (Middleweight)

Other

- Manvel Gamburyan was expected to face Aljamain Sterling at the event. However on February 3, Gamburyan pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced by Takeya Mizugaki.
- A middleweight bout between Ronaldo Souza and Yoel Romero was originally booked for UFC 184. However, the bout was cancelled due to Souza being struck with pneumonia. The fight was later rescheduled for this event. However on April 10, Romero pulled out of the bout due to a ligament and meniscus tear in his knee. On the next day, Chris Camozzi was announced as his replacement. This fight will be a rematch as Souza defeated Camozzi by technical submission (arm-triangle choke) at UFC on FX 8.
- A featherweight bout between Diego Brandão and Jimy Hettes was originally booked for UFC 183. However, the bout was canceled right before the event started, as Hettes passed out backstage. The fight was later rescheduled for this event.
- George Sullivan was expected to face Kenny Robertson at the event. However, Robertson pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced by Tim Means.
- Nick Catone was expected to face Vitor Miranda at the event. However, Catone abruptly announced his retirement on March 25, citing a litany of injuries and a history of chronic back pain. With a rib injury, Miranda was also pulled from the card. According to the promotion, a replacement fight will be announced shortly.
- Paul Felder was expected to face Jim Miller at this event. However, Felder was forced to pull out of the event due to a knee injury and was replaced by Beneil Dariush.

----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Rockhold > Machida
• Souza > Camozzi
• Swanson > Holloway
• PVZ > Herrig
• Dariush > Miller
• OSP > Cummins
• Anderson > Villante
• Sterling > Mizugaki
• Sullivan > Means
• Brandao > Hettes
• Gordon > Dempsey

So they resigned camozzi and give him the nr 1 contenter after going 0-4 and being cut in his last stint. What makes it even more absurd is that they have already fought before and camozzi got subbed in r1.

I'm not sure what madness is happening with Swanson's line. He opened at -190, which seemed about right, but hes now -150. I expected it to be much higher.

Good card... was great until Romero got hurt and they pulled the travesty of a lifetime and inserted Camozzi back in to get starched. Unbelievable, would have rather them just scrapped the fight and put Souza on another card with a top 20 MW. Camozzi is literally a top 50 MW in the world... at best. Also bummed Felder got pulled, I think he's gonna be in title contention within a year or so and the Miller fight would have been a perfect test. Nonetheless, great matchmaking in terms of parody, really close fights.

Anyway,

Rockhold > Machida - Odds look right, tough fight to visualize because something tells me Rockhold will win on points

Souza > Camozzi - Squash match, Souza in Rd 1

Swanson v Holloway - Pickem, will bet a small one on Holloway if he's +140 or better.

PVZ v Herrig - Pickem, will probably bet a small one on Herrig if she gets to +140. PVZ will win if she's continued to improve which is what the UFC is banking on but I definitely don't see how she's more than a slight favorite.

Dariush > Miller - Close to a pickem, will obviously bet a nice one on Miller, don't understand the odds at all (*when I wrote this Miller was at +200, now it's closer but he's still at +160). Both fighters are fairly well-rounded with Dariush probably being a bit better of a grappler and Miller being more technical on the feet. Cardio and athleticism probably make Dariush the slight fav but think the odds are way too wide. Miller is a good test for Beneil, not a jobber fight like the odds are almost reflecting.

Cummins > OSP - OSP may have learned a lot from the Bader fight but Cummins should be able to replicate the wrestling dominance over 3 rounds and take 2 of'em. If the odds move to a pickem I'll take Cummins, if not I'll stay away.

Anderson > Villante - Odds are about right, won't touch it

Sterling > Mizugaki - Sterling seems like he should be top 5 within a year, Mizugaki is very good but not dangerous, Al-Jo should put together a nice well-rounded performance.

Means > Sullivan - Like the odds on Means, small bet on him probably, seams like a great style matchup for him to keep rolling with the violence. Sullivan is tough but Means is violent enough to put it on him early and break him, he just needs to start fast.

Brandao > Hettes - Odds are about right, won't touch it. Hettes is a fun grappler but just has a losing style, especially in a world where everyone's sub defense is good and probably will get cut sooner rather than later.

Gordon > Dempsey - Probably via wrestlefuck, not impressed with Gordon though, loved watching him get KTFO by Salmon.

On April 12 2015 19:11 Floofy wrote: I'm not sure what madness is happening with Swanson's line. He opened at -190, which seemed about right, but hes now -150. I expected it to be much higher.

Holloway is really good. Swanson has the physical advantages (power, speed) but Holloway is in my opinion a bit more technical with his striking/footwork and is getting better every time. His decision vs Bermudez was bullshit and his chin is pretty nutty - he ate McGregor's shots better than anyone else has. So you gotta think it's going to the cards and if he throws more volume and has the reach and technical advantages, even if Swanson's individual shots will do more damage, I don't see how you can handicap this one very wide.

+ He's got the youth / career arch advantage and the arm-chair psychologist in me knows all the pressure is on Swanson for this one. If he loses, he's pretty fucked.

I understand where you are coming from though, I was actually expecting and hoping the odds on this one would be Swanson -200 or better and I was gonna make a big bet on Max.

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Great card. Tim Means seems to be on like every card.

Can someone explain why Mizugaki is the the underdog against sterling? Seems like a pretty big step up in competition compared to the guys he fought before.

Mizugaki is similar to Hugo Viana, Sterling's last opponent. Sterling is also from New York, so he'll have that on his side if it's a close decision.

I personally think Sterling is better than Mizugaki in all areas that matter. However, if Mizugaki can stop the take downs, and is aggressive with his striking, he could win a decision. Sterling has more ways to win, so it's a tough fight for Mizugaki.

I think Rockhold is kind-of a beast physically and don't see Machida being able to stand blow for blow with him. So Machida will need to use one of his "special tactics" styles. So really the question becomes "is Rockhold dumb enough to play into Machida's games?" I don't see any reason for him to be, and I think the'res value on Rockhold. If they both use the information provided to them properly, then Rockhold should win.

On April 12 2015 20:09 PuertoRican wrote: $1,000 free roll: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/5586455

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On the other hand, after watching Rockhold's last fight. It's hard to say whether he will have the speed to be able to stand with Machida...

I'm leaning more towards Machida now. I think he will have too much hand speed and timing and be rather unconcerned about the dangers of Rockhold. They might not be on the same level too. Rockhold has looked good against weak competition, he might not be able to beat top competiion, then his whole seemingly powerful skillset just vanishes.

On April 13 2015 21:22 Minsk wrote: I'm leaning more towards Machida now. I think he will have too much hand speed and timing and be rather unconcerned about the dangers of Rockhold. They might not be on the same level too. Rockhold has looked good against weak competition, he might not be able to beat top competiion, then his whole seemingly powerful skillset just vanishes.

He definitely can beat Top-Competition. He already beat Jacare in Strikeforce (yes, I do recognize both guys are probably much better now) and I think he's Weidman's toughest potential challenge. The guy holds his own against DC and Cain in the gym supposedly. But Lyoto is just a guy that you never make a guy a huge favorite against, he's too good and 50/50ish, a close decision is a great possibility.... the odds just seem pretty damn spot on here to me. If I do bet it'll probably be on Rockhold if I can get him at like -120, but I honestly think the odds are gonna get wider after weigh-ins and everyone Oos and Awws over how much bigger Rockhold will be. So if you're gonna play Machida, wait until after weigh-ins.

On April 14 2015 01:02 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2015 21:22 Minsk wrote: I'm leaning more towards Machida now. I think he will have too much hand speed and timing and be rather unconcerned about the dangers of Rockhold. They might not be on the same level too. Rockhold has looked good against weak competition, he might not be able to beat top competiion, then his whole seemingly powerful skillset just vanishes. He definitely can beat Top-Competition. He already beat Jacare in Strikeforce (yes, I do recognize both guys are probably much better now) and I think he's Weidman's toughest potential challenge. The guy holds his own against DC and Cain in the gym supposedly. But Lyoto is just a guy that you never make a guy a huge favorite against, he's too good and 50/50ish, a close decision is a great possibility.... the odds just seem pretty damn spot on here to me. If I do bet it'll probably be on Rockhold if I can get him at like -120, but I honestly think the odds are gonna get wider after weigh-ins and everyone Oos and Awws over how much bigger Rockhold will be. So if you're gonna play Machida, wait until after weigh-ins.

Agreed with u man, true odds are probably close to -130 for RockHold imo.

fuck, so sad romero wont be there, would be a great fight

rockhold is a giant. Machida gets KO'ed

i rarely have strong opinions these days, but i think rockhold should be a large favorite over machida. too big, active, well rounded for a passive counterstriker like machida to win 3 rounds. this is not like the mousasi fight where machida is actually the more active striker. think machida's only chance is to catch him which he could obviously do cause of his timing, but think its low percentage

Rockhold will beat Machida pretty handily put in a bet at -140.

machida will win via flying knee

The only real question to this fight is "Can Rockhold stop a swarming Machida?".

On April 14 2015 19:20 Daut wrote: i rarely have strong opinions these days, but i think rockhold should be a large favorite over machida. too big, active, well rounded for a passive counterstriker like machida to win 3 rounds. this is not like the mousasi fight where machida is actually the more active striker. think machida's only chance is to catch him which he could obviously do cause of his timing, but think its low percentage

agreed

It's not a given to me that Rockhold will be able to put the pace and pressure on Machida the way Weidman did without running into something big but I guess it's pretty likely given his build and athleticism. But if it's like close through 2-3 rds and he gets over anxious/frustrated and KO'd, wouldn't shock me in the least.

I do think it plays really well for Rockhold that Romero fell off because he doesn't have the pressure to put on a show-stopping performance in order to get the title shot because it's sort of hard to look really good AND put on exciting performance against Lyoto. Only Weidman and Bones have done it, and both ate some HARD shots that may have put Rockhold out. His chin hasn't exactly been tested except when Belfort obliterated him.

Just laid down this parlay on BM:

MU MAX HOLLOWAY (MAX HOLLOWAY vrs CUB SWANSON) +135

MU PAIGE VANZANT (FELICE HERRIG vrs PAIGE VANZANT) -147

MU PATRICK CUMMINS (PATRICK CUMMINS vrs OVINCE SAINT PREUX) -120

MU ALJAMAIN STERLING (TAKEYA MIZUGAKI vrs ALJAMAIN STERLING) -290

MU TIM MEANS (GEORGE SULLIVAN vrs TIM MEANS) -155

Risking: $20 To Win: $300.33

Kinda changed my mind on VanZant, atleast for this hail mary, I think she'll outmuscle and outcardio Herrig and I don't think Herrig is dangerous enough to really hurt her. Good smart matchmaking by Shelby and I like VanZant as the slight fav.

I don't think Machida will knock him out, but if he can't defend himself against Machida's attacks speedwise, which is possible, its a problem.

Rockhold line getting wider but sooner than expected.

I heard an interview today with Brian Stann noting how in his opinion it plays to Luke's advantage big time that they are both southpaws and that takes away Lyoto's most dangerous and consistent offensive weapon - the left body and headkicks. I hadn't even considered that angle of it so I'm leaning Rockhold's a bit more now myself.

On April 16 2015 03:02 soberstone wrote: Rockhold line getting wider but sooner than expected. I heard an interview today with Brian Stann noting how in his opinion it plays to Luke's advantage big time that they are both southpaws and that takes away Lyoto's most dangerous and consistent offensive weapon - the left body and headkicks. I hadn't even considered that angle of it so I'm leaning Rockhold's a bit more now myself.

I didnt realize that Rockhold was a southpaw... but yeah Machidas best weapon is his left power kick and his straight left, and both of them are very diminished against a southpaw, but it brings to the table the outside legkicks, how heavy is Rockhold on his front foot?

On April 16 2015 03:10 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On April 16 2015 03:02 soberstone wrote: Rockhold line getting wider but sooner than expected. I heard an interview today with Brian Stann noting how in his opinion it plays to Luke's advantage big time that they are both southpaws and that takes away Lyoto's most dangerous and consistent offensive weapon - the left body and headkicks. I hadn't even considered that angle of it so I'm leaning Rockhold's a bit more now myself. I didnt realize that Rockhold was a southpaw... but yeah Machidas best weapon is his right power kick and his straight left, and both of them are very diminished against a southpaw, but it brings to the table the outside legkicks, how heavy is Rockhold on his front foot?

Hard to describe. But if I had to, I'd say he isn't light, and he isn't heavy, but maybe medium weight on his front leg. In General, Rockhold is light on his feet and has good movement, which allows him to avoid most dangerous spots, not counting Vitor's spinning testosterone kick. Rockhold usually relies on movement and technique in his strikes, which means he doesn't put a ton of power behind his punches/kicks, but even then his strikes have some decent power behind them.

On April 14 2015 19:20 Daut wrote: i rarely have strong opinions these days, but i think rockhold should be a large favorite over machida. too big, active, well rounded for a passive counterstriker like machida to win 3 rounds. this is not like the mousasi fight where machida is actually the more active striker. think machida's only chance is to catch him which he could obviously do cause of his timing, but think its low percentage

I kind agree with this, but I also think you gotta adjust how we'll each has looked recently based off competition. For the most part, Machida has been facing top 5 guys with a few exceptions for a long time. And aside from Vitor who kicked his head off, Rockhold has been facing fringe top 10 guys. So naturally, Rockhold is going to look a lot better.

But yea I think the volume of strikes here is the biggest difference. And the fact that Rockhold is great at kicks. Machida is great at avoiding punches, but not great at avoiding kicks. Which makes me favor Rockhold too.

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UFC on Fox 15 Referee and Judging Assignments:

Luke Rockhold vs. Lyoto Machida
Referee: Keith Peterson
Judges: Eric Colon, Derek Cleary, Dave Tirelli

Chris Camozzi vs. Ronaldo Souza
Referee: Dan Miragliotta
Judges: Michael DePasquale, Jose Tabora, Cardo Urso

Max Holloway vs. Cub Swanson
Referee: Gasper Oliver
Judges: Michelle Agustin, Derek Cleary, Cardo Urso

Paige VanZant vs. Felice Herrig
Referee: Vitor Ribeiro
Judges: Michelle Agustin, Derek Cleary, Jose Tabora

Beneil Dariush vs. Jim Miller
Referee: Vitor Ribeiro
Judges: Eric Colon, Derek Cleary, Dave Tirelli

Patrick Cummins vs. Ovince St. Pruex
Referee: Dan Miragliotta
Judges: Eric Colon, Michael DePasquale, Cardo Urso

Gian Villante vs. Corey Anderson
Referee: Liam Kerrigan
Judges: Derek Cleary, Eric Colon, Dave Tirelli

Aljamain Sterling vs. Takeya Mizugaki
Referee: Gasper Oliver
Judges: Michelle Agustin, Michael DePasquale, Dave Tirelli

Tim Means vs. George Sullivan
Referee: Keith Peterson
Judges: Derek Cleary, Eric Colon, Dave Tirelli

Jim Hettes vs. Diego Brandao
Referee: Dan Miragliotta
Judges: Michelle Agustin, Michael DePasquale, Jose Tabora

Chris Dempsey vs. Eddie Gordon
Referee: Liam Kerrigan
Judges: Michelle Agustin, Michael DePasquale, Cardo Urso

Peterson solid ref

Patrick Cummins ML and Cammozzi/Souza o1.5 are my favorite bets on this.

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people who are counting machida out are retarded. He's fought weidman, rampage, jones, the best of the best. Rockhold has a lot to prove in the ufc, hes like mcgregor without the fame.

On April 17 2015 07:00 flounder44 wrote: people who are counting machida out are retarded. He's fought weidman, rampage, jones, the best of the best. Rockhold has a lot to prove in the ufc, he's like mcgregor without the fame.

Not really.

next title fight: crocop vs a sack of potatoes~!

sack: +137 crocop: -155

Gongrats to Rockhold bettors on opening lines. Now I don't like the odds so much. Machida is so good, I can't count him out.
Holloway and Cummins are the bets that I like for this card. Great card full of close fights.

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On April 17 2015 09:56 RaiNKhAN wrote: next title fight: crocop vs a sack of potatoes~! sack: +137 crocop: -155

True but I'd reverse the odds

Lyoto Machida (185) vs. Luke Rockhold (185)
Chris Camozzi (185) vs. Ronaldo Souza (186)
Max Holloway (146) vs. Cub Swanson (145)
Felice Herrig (115) vs. Paige VanZant (115)
Beneil Dariush (155) vs. Jim Miller (156)
Patrick Cummins (205) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (205)
Corey Anderson (205) vs. Gian Villante (206)
Aljamain Sterling (136) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (136)
Tim Means (170) vs. George Sullivan (171)
Diego Brandao (145) vs. Jimy Hettes (146)
Chris Dempsey (186) vs. Eddie Gordon (186)

Looks like Machida added a good bit of size for this fight.

On April 17 2015 20:32 Stim_Abuser wrote: Looks like Machida added a good bit of size for this fight.

Yesterday when i saw the news that said he gained 6 pounds of muscle, i bet him at +140.

Then his line got better???

As I've seen people point out on other forums, Machida grimaces taking his shirt off at 26 minutes in. Possible shoulder injury?

Thought I'd throw it out there for all you bettors. Probably doesn't mean much tho.

On April 17 2015 20:54 Stim_Abuser wrote: As I've seen people point out on other forums, Machida grimaces taking his shirt off at 26 minutes in. Possible shoulder injury? Thought I'd throw it out there for all you bettors. Probably doesn't mean much tho.

Wow. I watched and can verify some fishiness there.

Machida during the weigh-ins.

You can look at this in two ways: Nothing can be wrong and maybe he was wearing a tight shirt, or he might have a small injury that he didn't tell anyone about, and fighters always say that they're never truly 100% going into a fight.

The way I see it is, I'm glad I never planned to bet on Machida, because I'd be stuck worrying about what the issue might be, if there's an issue at all. As a person who thinks Rockhold will win whether or not Machida is 100% healthy, I like what I see.

Yeah, I can see his right shoulder injury. Taking Rockhold after that. It's impossible to be fast with that.

Instant replay to be in use for UFC on FOX 15

"The use of instant replay will be available during Saturday's UFC on FOX 15 event at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Nick Lembo, counsel for the New Jersey State Athletic Control Board, informed MMA Fighting the relatively rare practice in MMA would be available for the event.

Instant replay was previously in use in New Jersey beginning in 2007, but was phased out with the departure of commissioner Larry Hazzard approximately a year later. When Hazzard returned to that position in September of 2014, however, he re-instituted it for boxing and mixed martial arts events. The first show to use instant replay in the state since Hazzard's return was an October 2014 Cage Fury Fighting Championship show.

The actual guiding principles of instant replay in the state are still a work in progress. Recently, it has not been available for fighters to challenge decisions. Instead, it's for use between rounds when a designated member of the athletic commission believes there's cause for a review of referee's decision or act.

'We are not going to be nit-picking referee calls. We are not going to have debates on issues. It has to be something we're sure of. And, it's not something we're looking forward to using. We hope we never have to. But, it is a safe guard for the fighters' sake,' Hazzard told Yahoo! Sports in October."

After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction.

Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down.

Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark.

On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark.

https://youtu.be/leGfPKWC0xU?t=3m10s


Herrig's "serious face" is her trademark stare-down. Her nickname is the "Lil Bulldog."

PVZ is also doing her standard stare-down, which is all smiles.

On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction. Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down. Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark.

Holloway does not have a reach advantage. they have the same reach. Statistically, higher height with no reach advantage is actually a disavantage.
He does have youth advantage thought.
Also have to consider Holloway gets better every fights.

I have bet on swanson, but the more i think about it, the more i think Holloway actually can win. If conor hasn't been able to KO Holloway, its unlikely swanson can do it. I could see Holloway winning the point war.

On April 18 2015 00:31 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction. Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down. Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark. Holloway does not have a reach advantage. they have the same reach. Statistically, higher height with no reach advantage is actually a disadvantage.

Not exactly.

Both guys do have the same reach, but Cub will be punching upward at an angle, while Max will be punching downward at an angle. If you know the basics of angles, you know that you lose power when you punch upward.

I don't see Max's reach being a disadvantage just because it's the same as Cub's. Both guys don't have short arms, so it's not that big of a deal when you think about it.

Anyway, Cub only fights technical for about a round, so I don't think it matters much, cuz he'll eventually switch up to throwing punches that leave him wide open, and also the spinning kicks that never land. Cub can win though, he just needs to be ultra aggressive for at least 2 rounds, or he'll lose to a more active and technical MMA striker, imo.

----------

Dana White said this 30 minutes before the weigh-ins started: "Holy shit!!! Lyoto Machida cutting weight. Weighs ins start in 30 mins on FOX Sports 2." The "holy shit" comment was due to Machida cutting that much water weight 30 minutes before he had to get on the scale. I've never cut weight, so I dunno if it's normal or not.

Here's the video:

Maybe Machida just faked pain to drive his stock down so that all his friends and him could benefit.

On April 17 2015 21:24 PuertoRican wrote: Machida during the weigh-ins. You can look at this in two ways: Nothing can be wrong and maybe he was wearing a tight shirt, or he might have a small injury that he didn't tell anyone about, and fighters always say that they're never truly 100% going into a fight. The way I see it is, I'm glad I never planned to bet on Machida, because I'd be stuck worrying about what the issue might be, if there's an issue at all. As a person who thinks Rockhold will win whether or not Machida is 100% healthy, I like what I see.

https://youtu.be/hwBy31N375s?t=25m5s


Machida also winced during another weigh-in, so I guess it's no big deal.

On April 18 2015 01:47 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On April 17 2015 21:24 PuertoRican wrote: Machida during the weigh-ins. You can look at this in two ways: Nothing can be wrong and maybe he was wearing a tight shirt, or he might have a small injury that he didn't tell anyone about, and fighters always say that they're never truly 100% going into a fight. The way I see it is, I'm glad I never planned to bet on Machida, because I'd be stuck worrying about what the issue might be, if there's an issue at all. As a person who thinks Rockhold will win whether or not Machida is 100% healthy, I like what I see. https://youtu.be/hwBy31N375s?t=25m5s Machida also winced during another weigh-in, so I guess it's no big deal.

LOL! Lyoto trollville.

On April 18 2015 01:47 PuertoRican wrote: https://youtu.be/hwBy31N375s?t=25m5s Machida also winced during another weigh-in, so I guess it's no big deal.

Lol I can relax now cause I bet 20$ on Machida, my only bet on this event

On April 18 2015 00:52 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2015 00:31 Floofy wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction. Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down. Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark. Holloway does not have a reach advantage. they have the same reach. Statistically, higher height with no reach advantage is actually a disadvantage. Not exactly. Both guys do have the same reach, but Cub will be punching upward at an angle, while Max will be punching downward at an angle. If you know the basics of angles, you know that you lose power when you punch upward. I don't see Max's reach being a disadvantage just because it's the same as Cub's. Both guys don't have short arms, so it's not that big of a deal when you think about it. Anyway, Cub only fights technical for about a round, so I don't think it matters much, cuz he'll eventually switch up to throwing punches that leave him wide open, and also the spinning kicks that never land. Cub can win though, he just needs to be ultra aggressive for at least 2 rounds, or he'll lose to a more active and technical MMA striker, imo. ---------- Dana White said this 30 minutes before the weigh-ins started: "Holy shit!!! Lyoto Machida cutting weight. Weighs ins start in 30 mins on FOX Sports 2." The "holy shit" comment was due to Machida cutting that much water weight 30 minutes before he had to get on the scale. I've never cut weight, so I dunno if it's normal or not. Here's the video:

There are statistic that proves that, at equal reach, being taller is a disavantage. Its from fightonomics, they did a study on that.
This does not mean Holloway will lose tho.

As an example, a lot of UFC champions/Goat usually have a longer reach than normal for their height, and they're usually not the tallest of their weight class,

On April 18 2015 15:22 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2015 00:52 PuertoRican wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:31 Floofy wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction. Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down. Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark. Holloway does not have a reach advantage. they have the same reach. Statistically, higher height with no reach advantage is actually a disadvantage. Not exactly. Both guys do have the same reach, but Cub will be punching upward at an angle, while Max will be punching downward at an angle. If you know the basics of angles, you know that you lose power when you punch upward. I don't see Max's reach being a disadvantage just because it's the same as Cub's. Both guys don't have short arms, so it's not that big of a deal when you think about it. Anyway, Cub only fights technical for about a round, so I don't think it matters much, cuz he'll eventually switch up to throwing punches that leave him wide open, and also the spinning kicks that never land. Cub can win though, he just needs to be ultra aggressive for at least 2 rounds, or he'll lose to a more active and technical MMA striker, imo. ---------- Dana White said this 30 minutes before the weigh-ins started: "Holy shit!!! Lyoto Machida cutting weight. Weighs ins start in 30 mins on FOX Sports 2." The "holy shit" comment was due to Machida cutting that much water weight 30 minutes before he had to get on the scale. I've never cut weight, so I dunno if it's normal or not. Here's the video: There are statistic that proves that, at equal reach, being taller is a disavantage. Its from fightonomics, they did a study on that. This does not mean Holloway will lose tho. As an example, a lot of UFC champions/Goat usually have a longer reach than normal for their height, and they're usually not the tallest of their weight class,

All these MMA studies have such small sample sizes I would think, but if I had to guess, this has to do more with the shorter guy with the longer reach having the wrestling advantage which directly impacts striking statistics.

In a fight like this where wrestling is gonna have very little to do with anything - IMO - that's irrelevant.

I have no idea, but that's just my guess as to why any study would say being shorter with equal reach is advantage striking, because I can't make sense of it otherwise.

On April 18 2015 18:31 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2015 15:22 Floofy wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:52 PuertoRican wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:31 Floofy wrote:   On April 18 2015 00:00 jvilla777 wrote: After watching the weigh ins I thought Rockhold vs Machida was more of a coinflip, because I don't see any significant opponents that Rockhold beat besides Souza, most of his past opponents are pretty much unknown or are UFC famous but not very good. However now this GIF that PR posted I'm now leaning towards Rockhold. That reaction looks like something was already painful and not an on the spot "oh I kinda pull a muscle just now" reaction. Max Holloway is a gold mine every time he fights, most of the time he's an underdog and he delivers, I'm pretty sure his height and reach is a huge advantage in a "striker vs striker match up" I don't ever see cub taking anyone down. Betting on Herrig as well only cuz PVZ was like all laughing and smiling during face offs while Herrig looked ready and hungry as fuaark. Holloway does not have a reach advantage. they have the same reach. Statistically, higher height with no reach advantage is actually a disadvantage. You are right a part of it is because of take downs/wrestling, but i would add that its easier for the shorter guy to make weight or pack on more muscle mass. As an example, Swanson clearly has more muscle mass than Holloway, and i wouldn't be surprised if his weight cut was easier. Not exactly. Both guys do have the same reach, but Cub will be punching upward at an angle, while Max will be punching downward at an angle. If you know the basics of angles, you know that you lose power when you punch upward. I don't see Max's reach being a disadvantage just because it's the same as Cub's. Both guys don't have short arms, so it's not that big of a deal when you think about it. Anyway, Cub only fights technical for about a round, so I don't think it matters much, cuz he'll eventually switch up to throwing punches that leave him wide open, and also the spinning kicks that never land. Cub can win though, he just needs to be ultra aggressive for at least 2 rounds, or he'll lose to a more active and technical MMA striker, imo. ---------- Dana White said this 30 minutes before the weigh-ins started: "Holy shit!!! Lyoto Machida cutting weight. Weighs ins start in 30 mins on FOX Sports 2." The "holy shit" comment was due to Machida cutting that much water weight 30 minutes before he had to get on the scale. I've never cut weight, so I dunno if it's normal or not. Here's the video: There are statistic that proves that, at equal reach, being taller is a disavantage. Its from fightonomics, they did a study on that. This does not mean Holloway will lose tho. As an example, a lot of UFC champions/Goat usually have a longer reach than normal for their height, and they're usually not the tallest of their weight class, All these MMA studies have such small sample sizes I would think, but if I had to guess, this has to do more with the shorter guy with the longer reach having the wrestling advantage which directly impacts striking statistics. In a fight like this where wrestling is gonna have very little to do with anything - IMO - that's irrelevant. I have no idea, but that's just my guess as to why any study would say being shorter with equal reach is advantage striking, because I can't make sense of it otherwise.

Yes you are right that one reason is wrestling, but personally i think the main reason is because its easier to cut weight when you're smaller, or pack on more muscle. As an example, Swanson clearly has more muscle mass.

Fight Pass: http://firstrowus1.eu/watch/339090/1/watch-ufc-on-fox:-early-preliminaries.html

Small bet on Hettes here at +155. He'll probably lose but I'll take the odds and hope Brandao blows his wad.

Good win for Dempsey.

Regarding Hettes, his striking and striking defense is so terrible, and he has poor TDD. Hettes does have a slick submission game, but Brandao does too.

I had no idea this had Hettis vs Brandao these days I barely even bother looking what's on the prelims with the junk they put on there. That's a decent fight!

On April 18 2015 21:01 soberstone wrote: Small bet on Hettes here at +155. He'll probably lose but I'll take the odds and hope Brandao blows his wad.

Would have done the same there. He will win rounds 2/3.

Wow? Lol. Felt great about it after round 1. Brandao was about to fold for sure, what an awful bullshit stoppage.

Weird stoppage. Hettes' ear wasn't that bad. Hopefully the UFC gives him another shot, even though he's on a losing streak.

That gash looks like it can cut through the entire thing anytime. Looks pretty bad to me.

Also a bullshit fence grab by Brandao that altered the round itself. But regardless, this was textbook Brandao folding in the making.

I really don't mind the stoppage. Either way good bet on Hettis.

Took Brandao right before the fight, he just had a lot of energy.

Have Sullivan too, even though I'm not entirely sure about it, I like Tim Means, but don't think his style will produce an edge here, and liked the odds.

Yah I'm obviously biased about the stoppage but I really do feel like I agree with Rogan. That said, he was downplaying it big time... lol

I like Sullivan over Means in this next fight. Sullivan looked the best he ever has during the weigh-ins, and he's way more aggressive than Means, and is the hometown fighter. Means is super dangerous, so it won't be easy for either guy.

I went the other way. I think Means has a lot more to offer on the feet. We'll see.

I think Means is great on the feet. I just don't think his style will match up well here, and accept that I could be completely wrong.

What do you guys think of Swanson at -145?

SORRY PR

Sullivan has no shot.

On April 18 2015 21:34 Nazgul wrote: SORRY PR Sullivan has no shot.

No worries, I only have fantasy teams for this card, no bets on any of the fights.

Tim Means looks legit in this fight, so congrats to him.

Seems Sullivan is just too many levels behind Means, I thought he would be a bit mroe advanced. His style does match up pretty well, but hes too many levels behind techniquewise.

Do you bet money with your fantasy team or is it freerolls?

Good stuff. Had 77.50 on him to win 50 and have him in a bunch of parlays.

Sullivan had no chance.

Time for the DraftKings matches to start~

On April 18 2015 21:47 PuertoRican wrote: Time for the DraftKings matches to start~

I'm doing it for my first time on the freeroll one

On April 18 2015 21:46 Nazgul wrote: Do you bet money with your fantasy team or is it freerolls?

I bet money on DraftKings, but it's all profit at the moment, since I won a couple hundred two weeks ago from tying for 1st place in the Mendes/Lamas card, along with other minor cashes for $6-$9.

I have 11 teams in the $25k guaranteed at $3 a pop, and 1 team in the $30k guaranteed at $27 a pop. I also have 2 free roll teams that I posted earlier in this thread.

Also, I also win money on DraftOps, which is still soft at the moment because not a lot of people know about it, even though it's advertised every week via Bellator, since they are their main partner.

Edit: Here's the $15 entry I'm in for DraftOps: https://www.draftops.com/#!/contest/a6df3c53-f855-49a7-9617-035f33c2b66c/entries
A lot of people had Eddie Gordon on their team, so they're fucked.

I think Swanson is slightly favored. I remember being impressed with Max Holloway after betting against him, and his standup was a bit more elaborate than I expected, but now I feel hes overhyped. Cub Swanson has + experience, +standup, his weakness looked to be Freddie Edgar not Max Holloway. I think hes 66/33ish thats my guess. Hes fought all the great fighters, while Holloway has fought all the medium fighters.

Bet about $100 on Swanson at -140. Also still have a Rockhold bet open at -140.

Considering a small bet on Cummins anyone like that?

Sullivan was a pretty awful bet, I should have either avoided that one or taken Means. Took a 5 minute look at Sullivan and decided he matched up well. Didn't look deep enough to realize he was like 5 levels behind skillwise.

On April 18 2015 22:00 Nazgul wrote: Considering a small bet on Cummins anyone like that?

A small bet sounds good. Both guys have outs, so I have a hard time picking a clear winner in my head. OSP brought in a couple wrestlers to help him out for this fight, one of them was Cummins' old training partner, but who knows how well OSP picks stuff up in the gym. Interesting fight nonetheless.

Sterling vs. Mizugaki went as expected. Boring though.

That fight was awesome (Villante/Anderson).

Got a small bet on Cummins here for $57.50. Considering betting Herrig does anyone like that? I wouldn't really know what I'd be doing there except that PvZ seems way too hyped.

Round 3 strikes: Anderson 52 vs. Villante 35, with 41 seconds left.

Stupid from Anderson, but he is a green fighter, so I guess I can't be surprised.

On April 18 2015 22:59 Nazgul wrote: That fight was awesome (Villante/Anderson). Got a small bet on Cummins here for $57.50. Considering betting Herrig does anyone like that? I wouldn't really know what I'd be doing there except that PvZ seems way too hyped.

When you bet Herrig, you are hoping she'll be able to control PVZ against the cage or get her down, or possibly get a submission. Otherwise, PVZ will win on activity alone, not counting any finishes she may get.

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

Wrestle-fuckers can suck a dick! OSP smashed that faggot.

rofl fml.

cummins was owning then BOO/m

FUCK haha

Thought that was going alright heading into 2/3 with OSP showing fatigue

OSP has a good combination of strong and tricky. I think he will go far, although he should be easy to beat, people have a hard time with it in practice.

I went 1unit on machida, 1 on felice, .5 on Swanson, and .01 on Chris lol

bad bet on herrig ffs

Easy win for PVZ~

I really misjudged this Swanson Hollaway fight. Once their styles matched in the cage up nothing about it was surprising after. Holloway is a fucking animal. He fights like 4 times a year and is only 23 he's going to go out with 40 UFC fights rofl.

Sick performance by Holloway!

YESS saved the day BLESSED!!

edit: pretty much even on bets now after Holloway's fight

What do you guys think a bet on Machida at +235? all that wincing and shit taking his shirt off was dismissed by PR, it showed his previous weigh in showing the same face right?

Well, I'm all about Luke Rockhold now.

wtf +235? what site is offering that? I'd totally take that

On April 19 2015 01:26 milkman wrote: wtf +235? what site is offering that? I'd totally take that

Tomwaterhouse

lmao... Congrats Jacare!

Did you guys notice how Jacare crawled the fence like an alligator?

On April 19 2015 01:26 milkman wrote: wtf +235? what site is offering that? I'd totally take that

I would bet it big, and then bet big on rockhold on a normal site. huge freeroll ftw.

Machida could barely get up there

I feel bad for Machida, all his skills don't matter. It's like an old samurai losing to a young teenager.

rockhold is a monster, but this fight has already exposed some boxing defense weaknesses. i think weidman will batter and TKO/KO him standing

rockhold's just too big. hes going to whoop Weidman's ass
his body kicks are just brutal

fuark Rockhold is a beast, that fight was no coinflip

I thought Machida would do his normal striking style, where he circles a lot, but he used the strategy that he did in round 4 against Weidman, which is a "hit hard" strategy without his karate movement that prevents him from taking so much damage.

Rockhold is legit.

plus you're going 100% sparring with cain and DC. I feel he will maul weidman

If Weidman vs Rockhold happens, i think im just gonna go with whoever is the underdog, too hard to predict lol.

bah i missed the fight thought it was about to start
where the fuck is newark ¬¬

On April 19 2015 02:09 PuertoRican wrote: I thought Machida would do his normal striking style, where he circles a lot, but he used the strategy that he did in round 4 against Weidman, which is a "hit hard" strategy without his karate movement that prevents him from taking so much damage. Rockhold is legit.

Also the same strat he tried vs shogun 2nd time around. He cant fight in the pocket. Has to stick to what he does best.

^ $15 entry tournament. (total risk was $15)



^ $5 entry tournament. (total risk was $5)



^ $3 entry tournaments. (total risk was $60, since I entered one $27 tourney)

----------

I decided to take the next month off from actual betting and stick to fantasy games instead. These are my results from tonight.

Villante getting that upset win in the 3rd round really shook things up on DraftKings.

That was a pretty bad event for me, i guessed most fights wrong =/

On April 19 2015 02:09 PuertoRican wrote: I thought Machida would do his normal striking style, where he circles a lot, but he used the strategy that he did in round 4 against Weidman, which is a "hit hard" strategy without his karate movement that prevents him from taking so much damage. Rockhold is legit.

Didn't think Machida was doing that badly until he got caught in the back of the head in round 1... Fight was pretty over after Rockhold did all that damage on the ground following the knockdown.

Rockhold vs Weidman will be really exciting tho, two modern, complete fighters in their primes.

@CubSwanson: Well a broken jaw and a broken right hand...just another day at the office lol. I love all my fans. Thanks for your support.

Ended up winning $22.

If Cummins won, I would have won over $700 cuz of 3 big parlays he busted for me. Them's the breaks though when you pick the wrong golden goose.

As far as the thoughts on the future:

Weidman matches up good against anyone, I'm glad Rockhold looked so good because I'm pretty sure a fight with Weidman will be damn close with the odds and I don't think he'll win. Jacare would get mopped by both IMO.

Holloway is awesome, especially over 5 rounds, can't see him losing to anyone except Mendes, Aldo, Edgar, or McGregor. He's live against anyone.

VanZant, right now, will get absolutely scraped by anyone in the top two tiers of that division but her athleticism and trajectory makes a favorite against pretty much anyone else.

Dariush is legit as a top 10-15 guy but if he fights someone with near elite standup and good TDD - like a Masvidal - I wouldn't favor him.

OSP and Cummins are both gonna be career gatekeepers, good win for OSP but he's too slow and plodding to beat anyone in the Top 5, ever.

Sterling needs to really improve his stand up because he has the grappling ceiling to outgrapple anyone in the division and can definitely challenge for the belt in the next year or so if he can be active and develop his kickboxing.

Tim Means is a beast and should be in some awesome fights in the near future, would love to see him fight Matt Brown. He'll be a career gatekeeper, which is a compliment for 170.