Turn Decision vs Eric "The Nit" Liu

So this is a live 10/20 game here in Vegas. I'm 25k deep Eric Liu covers. He doesn't tend to get too far out of line vs me but is definitely capable of deviating pretty far from non standard plays, hes capable of making very big folds, calls, and bluffs.

Stacks are 25k effective. Hero has AcTs in sb. Eric opens late MP to 60, Hero calls, BB(reg with 7k eff) calls. Flop 3h8c6c, Checks to eric who bets 120. Hero makes it 400. BB folds, Eric calls. Turn 4c. Hero bets 760, Eric raises to 2200. Hero calls planning on check raising all blank rivers, and leading near pot on board pairs X%. Probably checking club rivers as well.

The problem is, Eric may not always bet the river if he was bluffing/semi bluffing the turn, and we lose to almost all bluffs if he decides not to bet river. I think he believes my range is fairly strong once I call the 2200, and think if he bets river he will fold to a raise with almost all holdings (He has the ability to fold 2nd nut flush here, not sure if he would or not)

The alternate line is re-raising turn to 4800 or so. Unsure if I would bet brick rivers in this scenario if he called the 4800. I think he is more likely to look me up with flushes with this line, but it gets him off random semibluffs most likely. Also there is a straight flush possible on board which is somewhat relevant at stacks this deep.

Thoughts?

i like everything about plan A

i think i'm not extremely worried about the river checkback, the hands he turns into a bluff on the turn aren't very likely to have pairs, so he'd have to pair up on the river (something like 97s).

dont really like leading pot on board pairing rivers. if you do, it means that you were actively aware that you were doing something bad on the turn and it did it anyways, and since you arent bad and he knows youre not bad i doubt you can sell the pot frontbet.

would assume if he's raising turn he's probably betting river and its a pretty credible spot to go ham on him so seems good to me.

not huge on 4800 turn but if you do i wouldnt follow through on unchanged rivers - seems very much like a spot he should decide on turn given action up to then

I don't think calling the turn with a set and leading board pairing rivers is a inconsistent/a mistake. For example if he has a lot of bluffs, and you are planning on calling down with a set on brick rivers, it can still be consistent to change your line into leading board pairing rivers if you believe he will no longer bet his bluffs (once the board pairs) as well as no longer value bet his flushes (since the board paired) but still will give him the chance to call your river bet.

It may still be better to check river if you think he will more likely continue with a bluff than call your pot lead with part of his value range, but it is certainly a conceivable line and does not necessarily mean that I was actively aware of doing something bad on the turn.

Kinda rambled that and didn't proofread so idk if that makes sense

I dunno I just don't think his turn raise range is all that wide. Your line is perfectly consistent with a set/flush for one, and its hard to imagine hands he semibluffs turn with. With a raise from late MP and a flop bet/call into two regs, he isn't going to have many offsuit Kc or 7c type hands in his range. I guess he could have 79s or 89s, but if you think he's pure-bluffing turn a lot you probably shouldn't be CRing to begin with (not that that changes the decision now). So I think his range is weighted more towards the king high flush or the 7c5c. I think it just boils down to what he does with the king high flush. If he folds more often than not then go for it. Otherwise, ugh, I prefer just folding turn.

Think I like it.

fold pre

I don't have anything to contribute but just wanna say A+ thread title

Result?

If u go ALLIN he can't call. Scared money!

I think this is just plain spew and you said that he doesnt do weird shit vs you and can do big calldowns and yeah I know its tempting to bluff when you have such a rare AcX hand in that spot but the fact that you could be spewing chips into a straightflushdraw is actually quite relevant considering the amount you are planning to risk on this play.

And as you said your plan requires a lot of IFs.. if he checks back, you lose the pot, if the board pais and you donk, there is a decent chance you will get called by a flush, if a club his you will win the pot but if he has the nuts you will lose a massive one unless you are planning on C/C club rivers which isnt crazy given the action, and if a blank falls you are praying that he makes a hero fold with a flush.

I really dont think your play has a positive EV and not even close to 0 so you could justify it for balancing and future meta purposes

Actually I think the regular turn 3B turn bluff much more believable if you hold the nut flush and Eric represents also a flush its pretty reasonable to assume you want to go for max value and make a sizable 3B, I think the sizing you purpose its bad as a vbet, it might not be terrible in a GTO perspective since you probably dont have many bluffs there but on a scenario where your opponent represents a flush you should probably go bigger, and even then I still think the fact that he could have the straigth flush is very relevant when we are planning on shipping hundreds of blinds into this pot.

I don't think anyone can really give a good answer here as we have tons of history and metagame going back 7 years. However, there are important considerations in this spot, especially since we are so deep, that can definitely be discussed generally, and I do think that it's a very interesting spot in general.

I won't be giving any input, even though I actually have a lot to say about this hand, as we play against each other frequently and I would hate to give you more than you already have

On November 05 2014 02:52 n0rthf4ce wrote: I won't be giving any input, even though I actually have a lot to say about this hand, as we play against each other frequently and I would hate to give you more than you already have

So basically you folded and this was all just a brag post by OP.

On November 05 2014 07:17 NMcNasty wrote: Show nested quote + On November 05 2014 02:52 n0rthf4ce wrote: I won't be giving any input, even though I actually have a lot to say about this hand, as we play against each other frequently and I would hate to give you more than you already have So basically you folded and this was all just a brag post by OP.

maybe, but why should it matter what I did? I still think this is an interesting spot.

Edit: typo

because we want to know what happened

I'm with andrewsong on this one

also I feel like eric shouldn't ever raise the turn but oh well lol

Folding pre is bad in this scenario, its not an online game where hes getting punished by the button/blinds for opening too wide or anything. his open here is really light. not really that important.

I'm still torn on this spot. I really tend to think when I have the Ac in my hand that erics bluffs are pretty disproportionate here, couple that with the fact he may fold flushes and I think im happy going for this play. Not sure which I like better, raising turn or going for the river play.

Results are I called turn sticking to my plan, river was Kx, i checked, Eric tanked gave a sheepish grin and checked back KcKx, which I thought was a weird hand for him to raise turn with. I expected some like KcXx with a pair on the flop etc to possibly be in his bluffing range etc. I believe Eric was planning on bluffing non club/pairing/K rivers, but only he will know. Was kinda sad I didn't get to attempt a big bluff on the p3achy =_=

On November 07 2014 20:58 MezmerizePLZ wrote: I believe Eric was planning on bluffing non club/pairing/K rivers, but only he will know.

I think he pretty much has to, and his river check is consistent with the idea that he thought a set would be folding. So it looks you had the right plan, but maybe not, again I really don't feel like he gets to turn with an offsuit Kc very often at all. But still just him semibluffing his high pairs might be enough to make this a good bluff. Just depends on what he does with his regular flushes.

a set is never folding turn, it's always gonna call given stack depths, also folding pre can't be "bad" mez, calling may not be as big of a mistake in these soft live games but you can definitely fold ATo there and not feel exploited by any stretch of imagination, I mean Eric opened (used to play online) and you said BB was a regular... and well if Eric was really opening too wide from there then we should 3bet?
fwiw I liked the option of repopping the turn when eric raised to 2.2k, prob raise to like 5k and give up afterwards