Where are we all headed?

5/5 nice blog . Don't have any insight tbh but interested in seeing responses from others.

5/5 for the pictures.

5/5 last pic is priceless

fun post to read. No matter how you look at it, in your case, when you decide to stop, you've made more than most people on the planet doing something fun. You can go do a million different things.

xD

And for the prophecy, I might be way off. But it seems poker is kinda, in a way getting a little easier now. Most people aren't that workhard as they pretend to be. Most people don't want to force themself to work mentally, most people want to just sit and the table, talk about poker, and look at hands. A few vods here and there.

Not many people take the time to really get into it, spend hundreds of hours analyzing in hem, looking for small inches etc.

When you look at the Asian market, maybe something awesome will happen, 2nd boom xD. Also a lot of interesting poker things happening when it comes to facebook, that skypoker thingy.

On December 20 2012 18:03 Tensai176 wrote: 5/5 last pic is priceless

+1 LOLZ

A lot of you winning players are very smart individuals and underestimate how much fun you'd have in the real world.

I wasn't a large winning player by any means, but I saw what was happening back in 2006 and realize I don't want to wake up 10 years from now firing up tables or sitting down at a 10 ring live table at the casino so I jumped ship.

If you don't want to wake up 5 or 10 years and still be playing cards, pull all your money, get out, go back to university if you have to. You're all still in your 20s.

What's Rekrul up to these days?

Grinding live games?

he's nedlying hard

If was making any excess of money at poker I would keep hammering it. Having an excess on cash which you can use to invest is the best way to make a living I think. Compound interest is the shit, early retirement goal is what I think most people should be after. No need to retire, but just having the option to

Its just about not being lazy. I find that poker and weightlifting correlate a lot in what takes to be sucessful, namely, consitency and hard work.
At least most people here on liquidpoker seem quite smart, and give me the impression they are not making money because they are flat out lazy. In the weightroom, despite how you feel, you are ALWAYS able to lift 90% of your 1 rep max for a single, baring and injury. Grinding should be the same. Just put in the damn hard work. If you wait till you "feel" like lifting, you never do; same poker. Establish ur workload, and just god damn do it.

The other side of the work is improving your knowledge on poker. That is EXACTLY the same as reading on program design, ways to improve ur lifting technique, etc.

Basically:
Studying poker = Studying lifting
Grinding = Time in the gym

Almost everyone sucks at the gym, and so do most poker regs, at least in low stakes (and dare I say mid stakes, but can't talk from experience)
I've re started poker and will post a blog entry soon, but all I can say is that nl10 is SUPER EASY and all that rake makes low stakes unbeatable is non sense.

For people that start threads/posts like this (and these days, there are a few); is your desire for independence/autonomy outweighed by a lack of desire to put the work in to maintain it, do you just not enjoy the game anymore, or have you just not realised/capitalised on the comparative freedom/opportunities that profitable poker playing has over a salaried desk job?

I'm surprised that so many smart, profitable poker players who are armed with a measure of risk-taking ability and desire for independence/autonomy think of their choice of whether or not to continue in poker largely as a function of whether they will be able to beat the games in x years or 'omg how hard will it be to transition to y when poker as a source of income (for hero) is gone'. Even if this happens, do you not back yourself to replicate your success in another field?

imo the primary driver of whether you decide to continue to play poker is whether you still enjoy it enough to keep putting the work in to beat the game. Not specifically aiming this at JohnnyCosmo but I feel like a lot of people rationalise their own lack of desire to put work in to improve by making the blanket statement that the games are getting unbeatable, when really they're just too lazy or don't love it enough now that there's less 'free money' in it. As an extension some of them probably blew too much of their 'free money' without realising how much harder it is to come by so much free cashflow in other endeavours. There are guys playing highstakes HU hyperturbo SNGs that still make absurd amounts of money despite thin winrates, plenty of people that win loads live, still a good chunk of people beating midstakes+ at a great clip and almost all of them have work ethic (and an ability to keep working hard) in common rather than some super sick intellect.

If you don't love the game, be honest about it. If you don't want to put the work in to get better, be honest about it. But don't delude yourself into thinking that a) it's impossible to make great money in it, or b) you won't be able to take your talents and the money you bank from the game and transition into something else that is lucrative and enjoyable if the circumstances necessitating that arise in the future.

ps. I love Joe Rogan podcasts too - don't you think it's interesting that he makes great money doing something that for many could be considered a 'dead' profession from an earnings perspective?

ever tried playing as a "prop" player? where they pay you like 30$/hr just to sit at live tables and play

thing about poker is that while you do make a lot of money doing it, you better commit fully to it because in the real world you just turn out to be a huge fish with a lot of money and no idea what to do with it. for me it becomes a huge waste of time because it makes you dumb in all other areas in life. e.g. relationships, investing,business, social skills etc.

if you decide to keep playing now make sure you're ok with doing it for years and years just so that you dont half ass it and lose money in the process. all good things come to an end and to think this will get any better is just fooling oneself. lots of more profitable industries have failed within the same 10 year timetable so thinking online poker will have a resurgence just because stars wont allow it to fail is just silly.

I have just set my sights on a shorter time table to ensure that I achieve financial independence through poker sooner than 10 years. That way if the games become too difficult to beat the rake or w/e I will already have enough passive income from other investments to sustain myself. Also my wife has a career going now too so I've got that going for me.

To me it doesn't seem that unlikely that I'll still play poker regularly in 10 years...It's been 7 years already since I started playing professionally; 5 years in Vegas. Time flies.

to each there own

mtts til death baby

jlost88 and i were talking about this in 2008-2009.

this has been how poker has been heading from the start, if you didn't look forward thats your fault

which is when i switched to mtts cuz they soft for long long time~

ne ways, happy you're having a realization.

gl

@neilly I'm not sure MTTs are softer than cash from a theoretical standpoint. There's only so much innovation/adjustments you can do with 10-40bb. Not saying either is dead or dying any time soon but edges are smaller in MTTs and rake eats a lot of profits.

Don't winning MTTers go months without making profits, even the sick grinders? Seems like a great format to exercise any edge you have at poker.....

On December 20 2012 22:22 thewh00sel wrote: @neilly I'm not sure MTTs are softer than cash from a theoretical standpoint. There's only so much innovation/adjustments you can do with 10-40bb. Not saying either is dead or dying any time soon but edges are smaller in MTTs and rake eats a lot of profits.

if 10-40bb is not as complex as deeper poker, shouldn't it become tougher quicker than cash.

On December 20 2012 22:03 NeillyJQ wrote: jlost88 and i were talking about this in 2008-2009. this has been how poker has been heading from the start, if you didn't look forward thats your fault which is when i switched to mtts cuz they soft for long long time~ ne ways, happy you're having a realization. gl

you surely saw this coming, thats why you have $500 - $10 dinner to your name

On December 20 2012 23:06 Arirang wrote: if 10-40bb is not as complex as deeper poker, shouldn't it become tougher quicker than cash.

Dead money gets washed around a LOT longer in the tournament economy, the higher variance creates delusion regarding relative skill levels, they are completely different beasts.

Those nits probably made a lot of money from drunk tourists thou, so they played the way they believed was right. Of course they will be no match for an experienced good online grinder, but when like half - 75% of their good hands get payed off in some way i can also understand that they dont really care about the 35 cent edge preflop on blind steal or whatever / or caring about what used to be the occational other grinder at the table at all

i have a hobby that pays all my bills and then some ... i only take part in it when i really feel like, and i never have to report to anyone. don't really see how things could get much better.

if it gets so drastic that im making like $40/hr grinding .5/1 and i have to play 30 hours a week just to pay the bills, then obviously i need to look toward the future--if it ever gets to that point i'll probly just splerge on 10k worth of coaching and learn plo. but for now ... the games "getting tougher" is the last thing on my mind. people have been saying they've been getting tougher for years .. and ya it's definitely true that the game evolves and 6 months ago will always be slightly softer than the present, but through all that i've been improving at a much faster rate and winning much more than before, so i dunno, it doesn't factor into my decision too much cuz i dont seem to 'feel' it's effects.

as long as there are people willing to play poker, a perceptive player will be able to find edges.

On December 21 2012 07:08 MARSHALL28 wrote: i have a hobby that pays all my bills and then some ... i only take part in it when i really feel like, and i never have to report to anyone. don't really see how things could get much better. if it gets so drastic that im making like $40/hr grinding .5/1 and i have to play 30 hours a week just to pay the bills, then obviously i need to look toward the future--if it ever gets to that point i'll probly just splerge on 10k worth of coaching and learn plo. but for now ... the games "getting tougher" is the last thing on my mind. people have been saying they've been getting tougher for years .. and ya it's definitely true that the game evolves and 6 months ago will always be slightly softer than the present, but through all that i've been improving at a much faster rate and winning much more than before, so i dunno, it doesn't factor into my decision too much cuz i dont seem to 'feel' it's effects. as long as there are people willing to play poker, a perceptive player will be able to find edges.

I'm pretty sure I know where you play at, and your games are still 2004ish.

I also play there occasionnaly and it is the softest online games I've EVER seen (started in 2006). It's even softer than when we had french and italians players all over.

So your theory doesn't really apply.

Seriously on that site, NL200/NL400 is softer than NL5 on stars, wish I had the guts to take shots at the soft NL1000/NL2000 tables and claim that ' I am always improving ' and a ' great poker player ', while it's even softer than fucking live poker.

Anyway, just saying that whatever you say doesn't really apply to the actual reality of online poker.

"but through all that i've been improving at a much faster rate and winning much more than before"


made me laugh, since you get to sit with 3+ sportsbetting degens (on a 6max) that are not sure if a flush is stronger than a straight (I do too btw), that bet pot every street for the funs, etc. It's just that I get a smile on my face when I see delusional players sitting on the softest games ever and claiming to improve/be awesome. Most of the time, those regs are so awful, they deserve a smacking in the face for playing that many years of online poker and being still so awful. But still most of them print, just as much as people did in 2003-2006

Same, identical thing happens in Casinos and live poker, identical.

Anyway, back to topic... Live poker will take a hell of a long time to die off and same thing for MTTs (live and online)....

Which site is this ?

I guess the only thing I can agree on about live poker beeing dead is that the Las Vegas games are probably not that great off tourist season... I cant imagine them beeing bad under f.example WSOP.... I saw too much crazyness on 2.5/5 (where u can make decent money) when I was over

ye sites like bodog are mental nl50 is softer than nl2 on stars and the destroy ur life skills with poker is overrated a ton. Ive worked 9months in sales and you get all people skills back when you speak to 100ppl everyday and the skills are largely transferrable, the positive attitude constant learning hard work discipline fun at what you do that you learn at poker u can use everywere. Plus Its never late to get education and change direction in life. If ur winning and enjoying it no reason to quit or think bout stuff like this

On December 21 2012 07:12 careface_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 21 2012 07:08 MARSHALL28 wrote: i have a hobby that pays all my bills and then some ... i only take part in it when i really feel like, and i never have to report to anyone. don't really see how things could get much better. if it gets so drastic that im making like $40/hr grinding .5/1 and i have to play 30 hours a week just to pay the bills, then obviously i need to look toward the future--if it ever gets to that point i'll probly just splerge on 10k worth of coaching and learn plo. but for now ... the games "getting tougher" is the last thing on my mind. people have been saying they've been getting tougher for years .. and ya it's definitely true that the game evolves and 6 months ago will always be slightly softer than the present, but through all that i've been improving at a much faster rate and winning much more than before, so i dunno, it doesn't factor into my decision too much cuz i dont seem to 'feel' it's effects. as long as there are people willing to play poker, a perceptive player will be able to find edges. I'm pretty sure I know where you play at, and your games are still 2004ish. I also play there occasionnaly and it is the softest online games I've EVER seen (started in 2006). It's even softer than when we had french and italians players all over. So your theory doesn't really apply. Seriously on that site, NL200/NL400 is softer than NL5 on stars, wish I had the guts to take shots at the soft NL1000/NL2000 tables and claim that ' I am always improving ' and a ' great poker player ', while it's even softer than fucking live poker. Anyway, just saying that whatever you say doesn't really apply to the actual reality of online poker.

whats the drawback of playing on that site? there must be a drawback right?

On December 21 2012 10:00 Stroggoz wrote: Show nested quote + On December 21 2012 07:12 careface_ wrote:   On December 21 2012 07:08 MARSHALL28 wrote: i have a hobby that pays all my bills and then some ... i only take part in it when i really feel like, and i never have to report to anyone. don't really see how things could get much better. if it gets so drastic that im making like $40/hr grinding .5/1 and i have to play 30 hours a week just to pay the bills, then obviously i need to look toward the future--if it ever gets to that point i'll probly just splerge on 10k worth of coaching and learn plo. but for now ... the games "getting tougher" is the last thing on my mind. people have been saying they've been getting tougher for years .. and ya it's definitely true that the game evolves and 6 months ago will always be slightly softer than the present, but through all that i've been improving at a much faster rate and winning much more than before, so i dunno, it doesn't factor into my decision too much cuz i dont seem to 'feel' it's effects. as long as there are people willing to play poker, a perceptive player will be able to find edges. I'm pretty sure I know where you play at, and your games are still 2004ish. I also play there occasionnaly and it is the softest online games I've EVER seen (started in 2006). It's even softer than when we had french and italians players all over. So your theory doesn't really apply. Seriously on that site, NL200/NL400 is softer than NL5 on stars, wish I had the guts to take shots at the soft NL1000/NL2000 tables and claim that ' I am always improving ' and a ' great poker player ', while it's even softer than fucking live poker. Anyway, just saying that whatever you say doesn't really apply to the actual reality of online poker. whats the drawback of playing on that site? there must be a drawback right?

I guess its one of those shady italian sites where u dont even know if ure gonna get the money when u cashout

On December 20 2012 23:06 Arirang wrote: Show nested quote + On December 20 2012 22:22 thewh00sel wrote: @neilly I'm not sure MTTs are softer than cash from a theoretical standpoint. There's only so much innovation/adjustments you can do with 10-40bb. Not saying either is dead or dying any time soon but edges are smaller in MTTs and rake eats a lot of profits. if 10-40bb is not as complex as deeper poker, shouldn't it become tougher quicker than cash.

Yeah that's what I was implying.

well donks stay in mtt alot longer. A guy from work quit after a 12k score to play poker. If i played him hu id get a huge boner, he was terribad its so easy to be delusional.

On December 21 2012 07:12 careface_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 21 2012 07:08 MARSHALL28 wrote: i have a hobby that pays all my bills and then some ... i only take part in it when i really feel like, and i never have to report to anyone. don't really see how things could get much better. if it gets so drastic that im making like $40/hr grinding .5/1 and i have to play 30 hours a week just to pay the bills, then obviously i need to look toward the future--if it ever gets to that point i'll probly just splerge on 10k worth of coaching and learn plo. but for now ... the games "getting tougher" is the last thing on my mind. people have been saying they've been getting tougher for years .. and ya it's definitely true that the game evolves and 6 months ago will always be slightly softer than the present, but through all that i've been improving at a much faster rate and winning much more than before, so i dunno, it doesn't factor into my decision too much cuz i dont seem to 'feel' it's effects. as long as there are people willing to play poker, a perceptive player will be able to find edges. I'm pretty sure I know where you play at, and your games are still 2004ish. I also play there occasionnaly and it is the softest online games I've EVER seen (started in 2006). It's even softer than when we had french and italians players all over. So your theory doesn't really apply. Seriously on that site, NL200/NL400 is softer than NL5 on stars, wish I had the guts to take shots at the soft NL1000/NL2000 tables and claim that ' I am always improving ' and a ' great poker player ', while it's even softer than fucking live poker. Anyway, just saying that whatever you say doesn't really apply to the actual reality of online poker.

have no idea what you're talking about. i play hu regularly against the toughest regs across all 4 sites i play on at the highest or 2nd highest limits available.

u think it has to do with guts? ... lol ... if it were so easy, everybody would do it. but okay, call me a liar. lemme know if u wanna play.

You and me will all go down in history,
With a sad Statue of Liberty,
And a Generation that didn't agree.

On December 21 2012 10:00 Stroggoz wrote: Show nested quote + On December 21 2012 07:12 careface_ wrote:   On December 21 2012 07:08 MARSHALL28 wrote: i have a hobby that pays all my bills and then some ... i only take part in it when i really feel like, and i never have to report to anyone. don't really see how things could get much better. if it gets so drastic that im making like $40/hr grinding .5/1 and i have to play 30 hours a week just to pay the bills, then obviously i need to look toward the future--if it ever gets to that point i'll probly just splerge on 10k worth of coaching and learn plo. but for now ... the games "getting tougher" is the last thing on my mind. people have been saying they've been getting tougher for years .. and ya it's definitely true that the game evolves and 6 months ago will always be slightly softer than the present, but through all that i've been improving at a much faster rate and winning much more than before, so i dunno, it doesn't factor into my decision too much cuz i dont seem to 'feel' it's effects. as long as there are people willing to play poker, a perceptive player will be able to find edges. I'm pretty sure I know where you play at, and your games are still 2004ish. I also play there occasionnaly and it is the softest online games I've EVER seen (started in 2006). It's even softer than when we had french and italians players all over. So your theory doesn't really apply. Seriously on that site, NL200/NL400 is softer than NL5 on stars, wish I had the guts to take shots at the soft NL1000/NL2000 tables and claim that ' I am always improving ' and a ' great poker player ', while it's even softer than fucking live poker. Anyway, just saying that whatever you say doesn't really apply to the actual reality of online poker. whats the drawback of playing on that site? there must be a drawback right?

no individual, sane and of average intelligence, would ever say anything like that if it were actually true. he claims the games are so soft but at the same time cant beat them??? ... lol

I play in the same live games cosmo does, I did the same evaluation and decided to move to Rosarito to play online for a short stretch. There's generally only two 5/10 games in town on a regular basis, and so you can't really game select. You have to basically set up shop and jump between the games, and some days both games aren't special. Second crappy thing is there's no 2/5, you have to jump down to 2/3, and the rake is the same, so overall a pretty brutal environment unless you are top dog. I don't consider myself anything special beyond solid player, so I figured venturing back to online might have been smarter.

As far as live poker goes, there will always be consistent 5/10NL+ action in a few select cities, beyond that it comes down to being able to properly game select, as well as being able to identify when your hourly is higher in a smaller game.

It is very much a "now or nothing" sorta thing with poker, and were the economy stronger I think it would be a fist pump decision to venture into the real world. But I guess those sorta go hand in hand now that I think about it. If the economy rebounds, the poker games get softer again. So it will always be in a cycle.

I still think the best option is to play poker and finance pet projects in areas that you enjoy. You have to put a lot of time into it, but if your job is poker you can have a hobby that in turn makes you extra money, just the same way people have poker as their hobby.

I was having a similar monologue recently with respect to not having too many friends that dont play poker, and ultimately that came down to my lack of socializing, not the profession I have chosen. People can play poker and have a good social network. I think if I had a normal job, my social life would probably be somewhat similar. So really, the friends you can get from the job shouldn't be in question, it's moreso what options offer the best income, and I believe that poker is still easily beatable provided you put in the proper investment of time and studying.

People have been saying poker is getting tougher since I started back in 2005. It's true, but there are still a ton of fish/regfish.

We've seen many regs switch their game of preference whether it be online to live, NLH to PLO or limit to mixed games. A lot of us also stuck with same game by refining our strat and constantly revising our plays to stay ahead of the game. Regs who went busto are simply the ones who couldn't adapt. Problem now is that poker is in what's called a progress trap.

On December 21 2012 10:00 Stroggoz wrote: whats the drawback of playing on that site? there must be a drawback right?

No RB, limited number of tables, now anonymous games (wasnt like that before), no promos, no bonuses, shitty software, very shady management, no HH, no hud.

I never leave more than 15 buy ins

On December 21 2012 17:59 MARSHALL28 wrote: no individual, sane and of average intelligence, would ever say anything like that if it were actually true. he claims the games are so soft but at the same time cant beat them??? ... lol

I said I crushed them, just like you, it's just that I am not meant to play NL1000/NL2000, at least I think.

I probably crush 1-2/2-4/3-6 SH at 8ptbb/100 on that site, or around that. And I am fine with this, I will not move up even if the games are just as soft 1 limit or 2 limit higher. I am very very happy with my hourly, my winrate and my 'confort zone'

The difference is that I do not brag about crushing fucking retarded-ridiculous-etc games, I admit that they are soft as fuck and a monkey could win at 1ptbb/100 (literally a monkey) and that I am not special for printing this kind of easy money. Instead of showing off without explaining that you are playing against 5 other braindead and probably blind idiots.


Anyway this was off topic a bit... back to topic I guess.

Neilly is right tho mtt's will always be soft. The more variance the harder it is for players to know if there playing right. Thats why plo is so much more profitable then holdem. holdem < plo < mtt for variance and variance = greatest factor for softness

On December 20 2012 23:06 Arirang wrote: Show nested quote + On December 20 2012 22:22 thewh00sel wrote: @neilly I'm not sure MTTs are softer than cash from a theoretical standpoint. There's only so much innovation/adjustments you can do with 10-40bb. Not saying either is dead or dying any time soon but edges are smaller in MTTs and rake eats a lot of profits. if 10-40bb is not as complex as deeper poker, shouldn't it become tougher quicker than cash.

Because fish are attracted to lotteries

nice blog cosmo post more of them imo

As someone who's been playing professionally since 2007 as well I agree with a lot of what cosmo said on the subject. Although I disagree that there's zero chance that online poker will come back to the states as good as it was before....our country is run off money and there's a lot of money to be had in the gambling business...the us government knows this and the government is a bit strapped for cash. the incentive is there for sure, just gotta slowly wade through all the political bullshit first.

For someone with very few other marketable skills I'm finding that transitioning out of poker without a large capital sum to do other things (i started and failed a business back in 2011 for obvious reasons) is very tough. Especially if said person took on big financial responsibilities so a "regular" paying job will really not cover anything. I do think that live poker is slowly improving but the insanely bad players and even the players considered "good" are unbelievably bad. I think that time chamber analogy from dbz is awesome and 100% true...if we crushed online midstakes/low highstakes then we will be worlds apart form your average live player. That said grinding live on downswings can be really gay

anyways this is turning into a rant and i hope someone got something out of this. to me poker is just a means to an end and not the end all.

On December 22 2012 05:02 careface_ wrote: Show nested quote + On December 21 2012 10:00 Stroggoz wrote: whats the drawback of playing on that site? there must be a drawback right? No RB, limited number of tables, now anonymous games (wasnt like that before), no promos, no bonuses, shitty software, very shady management, no HH, no hud. I never leave more than 15 buy ins

What site are you talking about?

On December 24 2012 19:18 SpasticInk wrote: Show nested quote + On December 22 2012 05:02 careface_ wrote:   On December 21 2012 10:00 Stroggoz wrote: whats the drawback of playing on that site? there must be a drawback right? No RB, limited number of tables, now anonymous games (wasnt like that before), no promos, no bonuses, shitty software, very shady management, no HH, no hud. I never leave more than 15 buy ins What site are you talking about?

not sure but sounds like he could be talking about Bodog? (or Bovada or w/e it's called now) they have anonymous tables, no RB afaik and pretty shit software from what i remember. shady management and probably not a ton of traffic.