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Minsk   United States. Mar 16 2012 18:22. Posts 1558 | | |
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gazavat   Great Britain. May 05 2012 07:15. Posts 59 | | |
Call is the better EV option in most cases, but both are +EV. Here is a detailed CREV/STOXEV analysis why:
CREV/STOXEV analysis
Feel free to point out mistakes or ask questions. |
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Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details. | Last edit: 06/05/2012 16:18 |
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gazavat   Great Britain. May 05 2012 07:18. Posts 59 | | |
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Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details. | Last edit: 05/05/2012 07:19 |
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TianYuan   Korea (South). May 05 2012 08:34. Posts 6817 | | |
Says its a private video? |
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Achoo   Canada. May 05 2012 16:06. Posts 1454 | | |
| On March 16 2012 08:00 phexac wrote:
Yeah this is definitely a spot where you make the play based on what you think makes you more money from this particular player. |
*kaching*
A definition of poker has been found. |
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Odds are exactly 50%: it either happens or not | |
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gazavat   Great Britain. May 05 2012 17:48. Posts 59 | | |
| On May 05 2012 07:34 TianYuan wrote:
Says its a private video? |
Apologies, Vimeo is very weird. I keep making it public and saving, but it keeps becoming private..Hopefully it stays public now.. |
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Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details. | |
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mnj   United States. May 06 2012 03:18. Posts 3848 | | |
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Minsk   United States. May 06 2012 13:14. Posts 1558 | | |
yeah its a neat program, thanks for video,
think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful |
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ShLiM   United Kingdom. May 06 2012 14:13. Posts 940 | | |
it is still private for me lol
maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?
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Seat 5: patatino showed [Qd 2d] and won ($609,730) with a pair of Twos | |
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gazavat   Great Britain. May 06 2012 16:20. Posts 59 | | |
| On May 06 2012 13:13 ShLiM wrote:
it is still private for me lol
maybe ur turning it public for certain amount of time?
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There seems to be an issue with Vimeo, e-mailed suppport. In the meantime use the following youtube link and make sure to watch in HD:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYzdTrxSPLw |
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Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details. | |
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gazavat   Great Britain. May 06 2012 16:54. Posts 59 | | |
| On May 06 2012 12:14 Minsk wrote:
yeah its a neat program, thanks for video,
think it needs a few sets of realistic river assumptions to be meaningful |
You can set up scenarios for different river cards, but that will complicate the analysis and will take much more time to setup. If you use the program on a regular basis, you will know that often you have to make approximations and you do not always need a precise EV number. More often than not having a general trend will be enough to give you an idea how to react in different situations based on variables and conditions. Doing quick, but regular hand reviews with CREV is much better than spending too much time on 1 hand and doing it very infrequently.
I still believe the analysis to be meaningful. Although the river part of the tree might seem very simplistic, in fact, it covers good ground. Let me clarify the river part as I did not cover it in much detail in the video:
The main assumptions are that Hero will never bluff if villain checks and that villain always checks unless he has TP or better. However, when villain checks missed AJ and AK and Hero checks back then villain always wins vs KdJd. This is the equivalent of villain always bluffing with these hands and us folding unless we have the nuts. In the case of villain having KJ miss and river going check+check then it is split pot, which roughly similar to bluffing half the time or less with this hand. Only 9d8d loses when checking river.
Overall, you can see that the general trend is that Hero can only improve his EV if we spend more time and tweak the river scenarios. Closer to reality, villain will not have such high bluffing frequencies on the river and he will lose the hand certain percentage of the time when he checks river as Hero bluffs. Therefore, the turn call scenario will become even more +EV, which will simply reaffirm that calling is the better choice on the turn.
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Apply for free coaching. Check my blog for details. | Last edit: 06/05/2012 16:57 |
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TheTrees   United States. May 07 2012 07:52. Posts 1592 | | |
| On March 10 2012 16:46 Twisted wrote:
Don't think he'll bet/fold a lot to be honest. By calling you're never making a mistake here because you get fine odds to draw so it's +EV always to call here. You don't even need to make any money on the river if you hit.
Then again shoving won't be terrible I guess. He could have some hands like AK/AJ/JK/AT that he might bet/fold the turn with so I guess there is some fold equity. |
What's your move if this is a newer villain and you barely have any reads on him? |
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