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PLO HU Longterm winrates

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DaEm0niCuS   United States. Feb 07 2012 06:21. Posts 3290

I was just wondering what you guys think about the long term win rates of PLO hu. The game is incredibly aggro and an all in fest, this must reduce win rates quite substantially, the rake is also incredibly high at stakes like .25/.50, .5/1, 1/2. Is the rake even beatable at these stakes considering the relatively small edge in an aggressive hu plo game.

What do you think a decent bb/100 is for hu plo? does anyone here have a good winrate over 200k+ hands at mid stakes plo hu?

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longple    Sweden. Feb 07 2012 06:40. Posts 4422


edit: in before dogmeat writes 3.5

edit2: damn to late

 Last edit: 07/02/2012 08:46

Joe   Czech Republic. Feb 07 2012 06:52. Posts 5979

Sit vs Galfond for a while and you will see.

there is a light at the end of the tunnel... (but sometimes the tunnel is long and deep as hell) 

dogmeat   Czech Republic. Feb 07 2012 07:17. Posts 6374

tree fiddy

ban baal 

Stroggoz   New Zealand. Feb 07 2012 07:56. Posts 3835


I was GTO in 2007 -wobbly_au 

morph1   Sierra Leone. Feb 07 2012 08:15. Posts 2352


Always Look On The Bright Side of Life 

maryn   Poland. Feb 07 2012 08:16. Posts 1199

lol flipments

 Last edit: 07/02/2012 08:16

daysare   Poland. Feb 07 2012 12:28. Posts 670

If 1,5 player earns 1,5 bb/150 in plo hu, how much does 1 player earn per 100 hands?

Fudyann   Netherlands. Feb 07 2012 14:14. Posts 704

3.50, because a third of that player's hands aren't PLO headsup.

dogmeat   Czech Republic. Feb 07 2012 14:58. Posts 6374

lol longple i see what u did there

ban baal 

casinocasino   Canada. Feb 07 2012 16:47. Posts 3303

HU plo is 50/50-

Ket    United Kingdom. Feb 07 2012 17:05. Posts 8635

  On February 07 2012 05:21 DaEm0niCuS wrote:
The game is incredibly aggro and an all in fest, this must reduce win rates quite substantially

actually if anything the opposite is true.. winrates in bb/100 for an "equivalent small edge" will be bigger than in nlhe if the game plays bigger and avg pots are bigger.. think about it, a repeated small mistake in lots of plo allin pots will cost way more than repeated small mistake in lots of nlhe preflop/flop/turn pots. But it's deceptive to say winrates are bigger because the variance is also bigger and the game effectively plays bigger at equivalent blinds, and the measure of winrate we're using is in relation to the size of the blind.

Also another side effect of the game playing bigger with more variance is that you need bigger samples to guess winrate to within the same confidence interval. 200k hands of hu plo doesn't really give a clear picture at all of true winrate, so people have less idea of what typical expected winrates might be in plo than nlhe.

DaEm0niCuS   United States. Feb 07 2012 18:24. Posts 3290

That's partially true, however the equity difference in NL vs PLO are much wider. In NL you often have less then 30% which makes getting it all in a pretty huge mistake, in PLO you often have 40% and pot odds to go with it making a fish's all in correct. So ya the pot size is much larger on average, but the mistake made is much smaller as well, sort of evens things out with NL. Also, as the pot increase pre flop the post flop odds become larger and the mistakes smaller, this doesn't apply quite as much to NL.

What you said seems to apply more to 6 max PLO, where pre flop ranges are much tighter and anyone playing 50% of hands is a clear fish and dominated far too often post flop. Perhaps 6 max PLO is the way to go, more easily definable leaks and what not.

RiKD    United States. Feb 07 2012 19:39. Posts 4526

+1 to ket

also, to add especially for 6max and especially plo there are no such thing as long term winrates. even if you played 5million hands of midstakes plo that is not your winrate. there are weeks when games are you, 2 bad plo regs, a nl fish, a fish degen, and a whale. then there are weeks when games are you, the sicko high stakes guy that just bought a house and paid taxes and his bread n butter isn't running, the sicko swede that just went broke playing nosebleeds, the sicko guy on the come up full of piss and vinegar, a good solid reg, and a mediocre reg. ante games get added, deep games get added, buyin changes are made, countries make it illegal, sites market to new countries. the market is constantly changing.

even if you are a winning gambler you are basically that bird pecking at the button to get food or shocked at random times. the good news is that humans have more reason than birds and there is more involved than just pecking at a button. the bad news is that humans also have the ability to rationalize.


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