is this a good value shove or am I overplaying my hand? villain 3bet 8% on the BB, overall plays 27/21
I'm @ the BU

ship this all day long, now since 2 flushdraws missed he may put you on a bluff even more imo

villain has $16 behind btw, not $38

I'm only new here but I think this is a ship, in a 3bet pot his range is weighted towards things that you beat right? Sure he could have 99, AA or AK but his range is likely weighted to pockets that you beat A's that you beat (or chop with) and busted draws.

Unless you're really predictable triple barrelling with all your Top Pair hands I think you can get worse hands to call (AT, AJ etc) and sometimes KK, QQ.

Assuming villains range is 99+,A9s+,A9o+ you have approx 65% equity, If he won't be calling with the non 99 and AA pockets you're at 47%. Assuming a percentage of air/busted draws that he'll auto fold and adding that he's possibly not 3betting you with A9 I think go for it, though it's close and with a better read you could know better.

Only new, hopefully that's good.

villain has 16? bet 15.99

On November 14 2011 08:29 InsaneatYou wrote: I'm only new here but I think this is a ship, in a 3bet pot his range is weighted towards things that you beat right? Sure he could have 99, AA or AK but his range is likely weighted to pockets that you beat A's that you beat (or chop with) and busted draws. Unless you're really predictable triple barrelling with all your Top Pair hands I think you can get worse hands to call (AT, AJ etc) and sometimes KK, QQ. Assuming villains range is 99+,A9s+,A9o+ you have approx 65% equity, If he won't be calling with the non 99 and AA pockets you're at 47%. Assuming a percentage of air/busted draws that he'll auto fold and adding that he's possibly not 3betting you with A9 I think go for it, though it's close and with a better read you could know better. Only new, hopefully that's good.

I think your range and equity is fine, but shoving here is solely based on we winning against his calling range 50 %+ of the time.

With that said this is a mandatory all-in. He is not folding any worse Ax, and him having AA (only 1 combo) and AK is somewhat unlikely giving how this is played out. On the other hand he can have lots of pocket pairs and worse Ax that is hero calling.

On November 14 2011 08:29 InsaneatYou wrote: I'm only new here but I think this is a ship, in a 3bet pot his range is weighted towards things that you beat right? Sure he could have 99, AA or AK but his range is likely weighted to pockets that you beat A's that you beat (or chop with) and busted draws. Unless you're really predictable triple barrelling with all your Top Pair hands I think you can get worse hands to call (AT, AJ etc) and sometimes KK, QQ. Assuming villains range is 99+,A9s+,A9o+ you have approx 65% equity, If he won't be calling with the non 99 and AA pockets you're at 47%. Assuming a percentage of air/busted draws that he'll auto fold and adding that he's possibly not 3betting you with A9 I think go for it, though it's close and with a better read you could know better. Only new, hopefully that's good.

nice detailed post for a new guy. welcome!