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longple  Sweden. Jun 27 2011 18:28. Posts 4472 | | |
one of my sickest bluffs i think |
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Zalfor United States. Jun 27 2011 19:03. Posts 2236 | | |
why are you bluffing here? |
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LemOn[5thF] Czech Republic. Jun 27 2011 19:04. Posts 15163 | | |
I tried to make an analysis but my brain exploded (partly because of it's late and I can't figure out how to read the hand converter raise sizes to do the correct math, and also because your HH caused it to explode)
Basically I get everything up until river, there you need to be good some 20% of the time but I guess you think that's EV 0 and you can hope you induced him enough to make it +ev, but why not do a bluff that needs some 46% to breakeven when he can't have AQ 9Q right and should fold his 66, 33, KJs-KTs?
Close?  |
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| 93% Sure! | Last edit: 27/06/2011 19:07 |
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i dont think he has 66 very often, and why would he fold 33? |
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villians line looks like KJ-KT trying to get some value against his small river bet. Although I can never really tell with this type of HH (how much does he actually raise you?) |
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Stroggoz New Zealand. Jun 27 2011 20:27. Posts 5296 | | |
we'll, ill try and do some nl200 reg analysis.
its a pretty good bluff assuming that villian raises a decent sized range on the river like 33/KT/KJ, QJ possibly, but folds out a huge portion of that range too when he gets repopped on the river, . Seems pretty hard for longple to have a good hand here tho, considering TT/KK/AQ 3bet preflop. i dunno about q9...
or it could just be that weak river bet raise size |
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| One of 3 non decent human beings on a site of 5 people with between 2-3 decent human beings | Last edit: 27/06/2011 20:49 |
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longple Sweden. Jun 27 2011 21:02. Posts 4472 | | |
its a mixx of the shortstack protects me from ever haveing air here
him folding AQ and Q9 on the turn
and the small raise size trying to make some 2 pair cooler value out of KJ, but i dont think i call with worse then KJ on riv
i can have all the sets + AQ, he cant
as played that is |
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| | Last edit: 27/06/2011 21:03 |
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longple Sweden. Jun 27 2011 21:02. Posts 4472 | | |
and the fact that i never have air here |
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boreHM Netherlands. Jun 28 2011 02:50. Posts 1595 | | |
wouldnt you have made a bluff in an empty sidepot with AQ on the turn?
your river 3bet range looks strong enough without it I guess 
nh wp sir |
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longple Sweden. Jun 28 2011 05:39. Posts 4472 | | |
| | On June 28 2011 01:27 Night2o1 wrote:
call pre ?????????????? |
what about it? -.-
cant 3bet K6s everytime, jeeeez |
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| | Last edit: 28/06/2011 05:39 |
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i just care about what would villain do with AK on the flop , could he ever flat and call again , its possible imo
villain HAS to be honest on this kinda of spot bcuz the ss protection
i also dont think villain double float with air , minraise the river looks like AK trying to get max value from hero's KQ blocking bet |
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