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$10 to the best answer! |
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tutz   Brasil. Feb 09 2010 06:37. Posts 2140 | | |
I would like to ask you a little help with a particular hand I played.
the link to the thread is
http://www.liquidpoker.net/poker-forum/853998/last/good_bluff_deep_.html
I reasoned my logic and what made me do that play. people are saying its bad but I don't see whats wrong with it... and since I REALLY would like to hear some good poker theory about it I will ship $10 to the best answer. I think people tend to criticize this plays mostly because its NL25 and they think this is a stupid and fancy shit to do at this limit. Looking foward to hear the answers!
ANSWERS HERE PLEASE!
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| Last edit: 09/02/2010 06:40 |
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JSquids   United States. Feb 09 2010 06:54. Posts 1142 | | |
this is a clear waste of money. as i said before, you are trying to outplay someone based on the information you have gathered about his 3bet/4bet tendencys. you are trying to force a fold correct? there are many other ways u can get chips out of someone, especialy at 25NL.
plays like this are a waste at micros becuase during the course of any session, ul have so many random fish giving away money with dick....why are you going make such high variance plays??? he could easily have an ace here and ur crushed...u could be correct aswell but the chances are so slim...why do such things????
il try and give u a good example:
your playing baseketball with a 10 year old little girl. alls you have to do is tribble up to the hoop and make a layup, you do not need to shoot 3 pointers or do any fancy crossovers and hook shots to win, why risk her getting the rebound???(this is micros)
now your playing basketball agenst larry bird....you cannot just simply dripple up to the hoop becuase he will fuck ur shit up....(non micros or a decent player)
what im trying to say is that 25NL is FILLED with "10 year old little girls" now go find them and easily crush them. stop trying to outplay larry bird. |
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AKA StarsNStripes@azeroth | |
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palak   United States. Feb 09 2010 06:54. Posts 4601 | | |
first off i flat that pre also weeee..and agree with fayth but anyway
"villain and me have some history, I've 3betting alot his CO open and I've folded once before to his 4bet" if this is true it doesn't make sense that your read would be he would only 4bet AA and KK but not AK or AQ...well maybe AQ, but he would also be 4betting AK. Plus he might be calling your 3bet with AQ or AJs which makes this worst. So lets say he 4bets AK/AA/KK/QQ only
When that flop comes he now has 12 combos QQ, 12 combos KK, 6 combos AA and 16 combos AK. So by your logic 24 hands folding, 22 hands calling this makes your bluff positive assuming he ALWAYS folds KK and QQ which is unlikely. Looking at it in a complete vacuum there is an argument that this play is OK. But problems with this are. He will not always fold KK/QQ to a raise, in which case you will check down and lose, that will happen some % of the time. He might have hands like AQs in his range which make it so that there are now 38 combos of hands calling and only 24 folding (the 24 also won't fold 100% of the time but the 38 will call 100% of the time).
Most important though is the fact that you have position in the hand. His hands like KK/QQ will likely check the turn to you which will allow you to barrel turn and river to get them to fold for sure. However any hands containing an ace will barrel the turn. His range on the turn will most likely become very very easily defined and simple to play against. By calling the flop cbet and re-eval a turn vs a villain like this you not only almost certainly wait to bluff against a much weaker range, but you also risk less money in the process. |
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dont tap the glass...im about ready to take a fucking hammer to the aquarium | |
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tutz   Brasil. Feb 09 2010 07:02. Posts 2140 | | |
| On February 09 2010 05:54 JSquids wrote:
this is a clear waste of money. as i said before, you are trying to outplay someone based on the information you have gathered about his 3bet/4bet tendencys. you are trying to force a fold correct? there are many other ways u can get chips out of someone, especialy at 25NL.
plays like this are a waste at micros becuase during the course of any session, ul have so many random fish giving away money with dick....why are you going make such high variance plays??? he could easily have an ace here and ur crushed...u could be correct aswell but the chances are so slim...why do such things????
il try and give u a good example:
your playing baseketball with a 10 year old little girl. alls you have to do is tribble up to the hoop and make a layup, you do not need to shoot 3 pointers or do any fancy crossovers and hook shots to win, why risk her getting the rebound???(this is micros)
now your playing basketball agenst larry bird....you cannot just simply dripple up to the hoop becuase he will fuck ur shit up....(non micros or a decent player)
what im trying to say is that 25NL is FILLED with "10 year old little girls" now go find them and easily crush them. stop trying to outplay larry bird. |
dude I play this game every fucking day because I wanna get better at it not just to do the basics
one day I will HAVE to learn to do different and fancy stuff
I get that at NL25 there's a LOT of random fishing just throwing their money to me, so what?
I still wanna learn more and more
I rolled for NL50 has been a long time but I dont wanna go there until I improve a LOT of stuff at a my game, like 3bet pots, redline, bluffing spots, etc.
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Zupa   Poland. Feb 09 2010 07:06. Posts 5 | | |
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JSquids   United States. Feb 09 2010 07:08. Posts 1142 | | |
| On February 09 2010 06:02 tutz_x wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 09 2010 05:54 JSquids wrote:
this is a clear waste of money. as i said before, you are trying to outplay someone based on the information you have gathered about his 3bet/4bet tendencys. you are trying to force a fold correct? there are many other ways u can get chips out of someone, especialy at 25NL.
plays like this are a waste at micros becuase during the course of any session, ul have so many random fish giving away money with dick....why are you going make such high variance plays??? he could easily have an ace here and ur crushed...u could be correct aswell but the chances are so slim...why do such things????
il try and give u a good example:
your playing baseketball with a 10 year old little girl. alls you have to do is tribble up to the hoop and make a layup, you do not need to shoot 3 pointers or do any fancy crossovers and hook shots to win, why risk her getting the rebound???(this is micros)
now your playing basketball agenst larry bird....you cannot just simply dripple up to the hoop becuase he will fuck ur shit up....(non micros or a decent player)
what im trying to say is that 25NL is FILLED with "10 year old little girls" now go find them and easily crush them. stop trying to outplay larry bird. |
dude I play this game every fucking day because I wanna get better at it not just to do the basics
one day I will HAVE to learn to do different and fancy stuff
I get that at NL25 there's a LOT of random fishing just throwing their money to me, so what?
I still wanna learn more and more
I rolled for NL50 has been a long time but I dont wanna go there until I improve a LOT of stuff at a my game, like 3bet pots, redline, bluffing spots,
etc.
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poker is a game of necessity. you do what you need to to win money. when you are going to incredible lengths to win EZ money something is wrong. what we are trying to tell you that you dont want to understand is nobody at 25NL is thinking as much as u are, therefor your plays are NOT going to work here.... your logic is backwards..."im ganna go outplay the regs and risk my stack doing so, but im getting better!!!" your not getting better your wasting ur money. |
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AKA StarsNStripes@azeroth | |
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tutz   Brasil. Feb 09 2010 07:12. Posts 2140 | | |
| poker is a game of necessity. |
NOT?
| your not getting better your wasting ur money. |
actually I feel I'm getting a lot better and my winrate is boosting thru the roof |
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tutz   Brasil. Feb 09 2010 07:21. Posts 2140 | | |
| On February 09 2010 05:54 palak wrote:
first off i flat that pre also weeee..and agree with fayth but anyway
"villain and me have some history, I've 3betting alot his CO open and I've folded once before to his 4bet" if this is true it doesn't make sense that your read would be he would only 4bet AA and KK but not AK or AQ...well maybe AQ, but he would also be 4betting AK. Plus he might be calling your 3bet with AQ or AJs which makes this worst. So lets say he 4bets AK/AA/KK/QQ only
When that flop comes he now has 12 combos QQ, 12 combos KK, 6 combos AA and 16 combos AK. So by your logic 24 hands folding, 22 hands calling this makes your bluff positive assuming he ALWAYS folds KK and QQ which is unlikely. Looking at it in a complete vacuum there is an argument that this play is OK. But problems with this are. He will not always fold KK/QQ to a raise, in which case you will check down and lose, that will happen some % of the time. He might have hands like AQs in his range which make it so that there are now 38 combos of hands calling and only 24 folding (the 24 also won't fold 100% of the time but the 38 will call 100% of the time).
Most important though is the fact that you have position in the hand. His hands like KK/QQ will likely check the turn to you which will allow you to barrel turn and river to get them to fold for sure. However any hands containing an ace will barrel the turn. His range on the turn will most likely become very very easily defined and simple to play against. By calling the flop cbet and re-eval a turn vs a villain like this you not only almost certainly wait to bluff against a much weaker range, but you also risk less money in the process. |
thanks a lot! u teached me to see this spot in a verry differente way! wow!
dont know if anybody can top that...
lets wait untill my blog disappear from the poker blogs list
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SpasticInk   Sweden. Feb 09 2010 07:23. Posts 6298 | | |
this thread is almost as ev- as your hand!
ship the $10
Palak has a good response using combinatorics but doesnt account that you risk 16 to win 24, which means you need fold 40 % of the time.
Once you get called, you are always behind tough. And here are some problems:
1) You don't know if you are gonna fire additional barrels to fold out KK/QQ. Since his range will be more skewed towards Ax hands, you will burn money betting again.
2) His flop bet is also more indicative of a hand in the range of Ax, because he might check with hands like KK/QQ to call at least one street. His hand range is therefor probably skewed towards made hands or bluffs which he decided to 4-bet with.
Considering it is UTG vs UTG+1 3-bet and 4-bet his range is probably pretty strong, making this a -EV play if you play with the numbers a bit. |
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salutary   Australia. Feb 09 2010 07:30. Posts 362 | | |
basically you stuck 100bb in as a bluff vs an utg raise, i think there are cheaper ways to get a fold |
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dogmeat   Czech Republic. Feb 09 2010 07:42. Posts 6374 | | |
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rednalluk   Sweden. Feb 09 2010 07:49. Posts 626 | | |
I think that if you had AQ/AK you'd flat flop, so do that here aswell. |
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longple   Sweden. Feb 09 2010 07:54. Posts 4472 | | |
| On February 09 2010 05:54 palak wrote:
When that flop comes he now has 12 combos QQ, 12 combos KK, 6 combos AA and 16 combos AK. So by your logic 24 hands folding, 22 hands calling |
i hope you mean he have 6 combos of QQ 6 combos KK and 3 combos AA? :-)
and as i said in the other thread to you, it makes no fking sense for you to raise this flop, you are not repping anything, u would never raise the flop with AK AQ (I ASSUME?)
it would be good for him to just ship it with K high here so hes atleast ahead of your flushdraw calls, that is how bad this bluff is.
(sidenote: its always as funny when ppl that never flat 3bets with AK raise Axx flops (not having anything for value raising that flop EVER) and fold to shoves 90% of the time, the other 10% of the time they have som flushdraw/low open ender they call with) |
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| Last edit: 09/02/2010 08:23 |
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joLin   United States. Feb 09 2010 08:01. Posts 3818 | | |
pf is a mistake imo.
but as played, like palak said, you have position. KK/QQ is going to shut down most likely so you can just take the pot away on a later street. |
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SPEWTARD   Peru. Feb 09 2010 08:44. Posts 4307 | | |
stop overthinkin and trying to make people fold their hands or you will get stuck on nl25 for your whole life.
keep the 10$ btw.
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Rise and Shine | Last edit: 09/02/2010 08:44 |
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qwerty67890   New Zealand. Feb 09 2010 08:56. Posts 14026 | | |
Ill throw my hat into the ring...
Basically, it works like this; If you think this is the correct course of action, go with it, trust yourself and dont listen to the others.
The truth is this can be the perfect or the most heinous line to take vs an oppoent, it all depends on how youre percieving the situation. As it is, you seem fairly content that this is the correct course of action, but cant stomach the thought that others are saying its a fishy play.
You need to stop caring what others are saying. If something is working for you, keep doing it until it stops working. Once it stops working, you can review and adjust and move on.
Honestly, the biggest thing here is you just want reinforcment for your actions. Its just you playing this game, be responsible for your actions.
$10 to byrnesam on stars. |
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joLin   United States. Feb 09 2010 09:11. Posts 3818 | | |
| On February 09 2010 07:56 byrnesam wrote:
Ill throw my hat into the ring...
Basically, it works like this; If you think this is the correct course of action, go with it, trust yourself and dont listen to the others.
The truth is this can be the perfect or the most heinous line to take vs an oppoent, it all depends on how youre percieving the situation. As it is, you seem fairly content that this is the correct course of action, but cant stomach the thought that others are saying its a fishy play.
You need to stop caring what others are saying. If something is working for you, keep doing it until it stops working. Once it stops working, you can review and adjust and move on.
Honestly, the biggest thing here is you just want reinforcment for your actions. Its just you playing this game, be responsible for your actions.
$10 to byrnesam on stars. |
this will work bcuz of course villain will fold KK/QQ type hands and only continue with Ax+. but we can do the same for cheaper by just flatting the flop. ppl are pretty much always going to slow down with KK/QQ on the turn and you can just take it away there. if he bets the turn though we can safely fold. this is cheaper than raising the flop bcuz you put in less money when youre behind and roughly the same amount when hes going to fold. |
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tutz   Brasil. Feb 09 2010 09:17. Posts 2140 | | |
I think byrnesam just won |
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joLin   United States. Feb 09 2010 09:23. Posts 3818 | | |
no..read my argument. your line is pretty much never the best option. |
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