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Leaks in my stats?

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SIG1   United States. Sep 28 2016 17:13. Posts 651
Hey guys,

Started grinding some cash again, but can tell I have a lot of leaks. Thoughts on my 3b%, or my SB play? I see myself making mistakes with hands like AT-AQ in the SB. Let me know if you see any leaks in my stats.







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 Last edit: 28/09/2016 17:17

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Sep 28 2016 17:38. Posts 4953

You're currently winning at 13.3bb/100, why are you even looking for leaks? Focus on improving when you're struggling... No point trying to fix what isn't broke. In any case, it's a tiny sample size and all we can see is some generic stats which don't tell us a lot, so it's extremely difficult to give any kind of advice. Stats don't look very similar to the biggest winners in midstakes games (your vpip is a bit high, pfr is low, 3bet is low, generally looks passive preflop, postflop Agg% by street is bizarre, should be more aggressive on button than UTG for instance as you'll be in position more often which is where you'll generally be more aggressive), but it's working for you so I'd just keep doing same thing until you run into trouble.


SIG1   United States. Sep 28 2016 17:48. Posts 651


  On September 28 2016 16:38 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
You're currently winning at 13.3bb/100, why are you even looking for leaks? Focus on improving when you're struggling... No point trying to fix what isn't broke. In any case, it's a tiny sample size and all we can see is some generic stats which don't tell us a lot, so it's extremely difficult to give any kind of advice. Stats don't look very similar to the biggest winners in midstakes games (your vpip is a bit high, pfr is low, 3bet is low, generally looks passive preflop, postflop Agg% by street is bizarre, should be more aggressive on button than UTG for instance as you'll be in position more often which is where you'll generally be more aggressive), but it's working for you so I'd just keep doing same thing until you run into trouble.



Insightful stuff. What specific stats do you look at when trying to improve? Also, do you have a sample stats on big winning players in midstakes? I just want to compare my stats to some of the biggest winners. I do agree with the sample size but been only 2 tabling, and playing 1-2 hours a day sporadically. I'll report again at 10-15k hands.


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Sep 28 2016 18:03. Posts 4953

I haven't had any hand histories, used any mining sites or even watched many instructional videos for a year or so, so I'm not really up to date, but most of the good players around that time were around 25-27 vpip and 19-22 pfr with 8% 3bet in a 6max game. In any case I wouldn't focus too hard on the numbers, 2 people could have the same preflop numbers and yet approach preflop completely differently, choosing different spots to 3bet more aggressively or open raise more aggressively etc. Tying to make your numbers look like someone else's will likely result in you doing stuff for the sake of it, making illogical and potentially bad decisions just to try and get your stats to look the same as someone else's. Just try to make good decisions and whatever numbers that amounts to is irrelevant, all that matters is your bottom line.

As for when I was trying to find leaks I'd use the Hold'Em Manager filters, I'd look at hands I was opening for each position and check I'm not losing money with any of the hands I was opening. If I was winning with them all I'd loosen up, if some were losing I'd chop them out. I'd look at hands I was calling and 3betting vs raisers, hands I was calling vs 3bets etcetc and adapt my preflop game that way. This requires large sample sizes again though, with a 4.3k hand sample you could actually be losing money with AA overall if you ran into some unfortunate situations, losing big pots and not getting paid off when ahead. I mean in 4.3k hands you're only gonna get AA ~19-20 times on average so with 6 positions that's just over 3 times you get dealt Aces per position. I think you'd need a sample size of AT LEAST 100k hands to really do much meaningful work in this manner. The only thing you could really do is invest in instructional sites, or if you didn't want to pay any money, just watch Twitch streams of good players and try to understand why they're doing what they're doing. On the whole I'd just keep playing as much as you can for now and not focus too much on analysis while it's going well

 Last edit: 28/09/2016 18:07

SIG1   United States. Sep 28 2016 18:50. Posts 651


  On September 28 2016 17:03 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
I haven't had any hand histories, used any mining sites or even watched many instructional videos for a year or so, so I'm not really up to date, but most of the good players around that time were around 25-27 vpip and 19-22 pfr with 8% 3bet in a 6max game. In any case I wouldn't focus too hard on the numbers, 2 people could have the same preflop numbers and yet approach preflop completely differently, choosing different spots to 3bet more aggressively or open raise more aggressively etc. Tying to make your numbers look like someone else's will likely result in you doing stuff for the sake of it, making illogical and potentially bad decisions just to try and get your stats to look the same as someone else's. Just try to make good decisions and whatever numbers that amounts to is irrelevant, all that matters is your bottom line.

As for when I was trying to find leaks I'd use the Hold'Em Manager filters, I'd look at hands I was opening for each position and check I'm not losing money with any of the hands I was opening. If I was winning with them all I'd loosen up, if some were losing I'd chop them out. I'd look at hands I was calling and 3betting vs raisers, hands I was calling vs 3bets etcetc and adapt my preflop game that way. This requires large sample sizes again though, with a 4.3k hand sample you could actually be losing money with AA overall if you ran into some unfortunate situations, losing big pots and not getting paid off when ahead. I mean in 4.3k hands you're only gonna get AA ~19-20 times on average so with 6 positions that's just over 3 times you get dealt Aces per position. I think you'd need a sample size of AT LEAST 100k hands to really do much meaningful work in this manner. The only thing you could really do is invest in instructional sites, or if you didn't want to pay any money, just watch Twitch streams of good players and try to understand why they're doing what they're doing. On the whole I'd just keep playing as much as you can for now and not focus too much on analysis while it's going well



So much info from a response. Thanks so much. Seriously appreciate this. Looking from position/hole card perspective individually makes a whole lot of sense, and wish I got this advice years ago. Although with my sample size, it may not be possible to look at each hole card/position and adjust accordingly, I see the value of analyzing this with sufficient data. Since there are so many possibilities of cards/positions, you're absolutely right that 4k isn't even close to the sample size that I need. I'll stick with learning from videos/stream while I collect more data. You made me realize there's very little to learn with my sample size, but at least I have a much better idea on what to do once I do have enough hands.


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Sep 28 2016 19:48. Posts 4953

No worries. There's a site (Forgot what it's called) that can calculate variance based on x winrate and y standard deviation which has shown that even a true 5bb/100 winner can go breakeven for something like 100k hand stretches. Might not have been those numbers exactly, but you get the point - you need massive sample sizes before winrates converge to something like an accurate number and even then you're playing in constantly changing game environments. Variance is huge in poker, you can go months breaking even or losing even if you are an assumed strong winning player over a theoretically infinite sample. Hell, at the rate I'm playing poker these days I could go a year or two breaking even. Just stay mentally strong during the bad times, focus only on on making the best plays you can make, quit when you feel you're playing bad or tilting and don't over analyse every session or 5k hands as it really doesn't say much. Basically, play more!


ClouD87   Italy. Sep 28 2016 19:53. Posts 523

5k hands is not a sample, and you are most likely not going to do well with your 3b%. I would fix my preflop and watch some small stakes coaching video before playing if I was in your shoes.


jeremy5408   United States. Sep 28 2016 22:28. Posts 122

3 bet % and not taking advantage of later positions seem to be the biggest. blind play is just difficult


SIG1   United States. Sep 28 2016 22:39. Posts 651

Thanks guys. Definitely looking into widening my 3b% slowly and see how that works out.


lebowski   Greece. Sep 29 2016 10:51. Posts 9110

midian, mvp as usual

new shit has come to light... a-and... shit! man... 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 29 2016 16:19. Posts 8843

4k hands are not even worth looking at, still your 3bet s probably way too low overall
most ppl 3bet or fold SB at this point

 Last edit: 29/09/2016 16:19

traxamillion   United States. Sep 29 2016 18:02. Posts 10416

They said it althoug I slightly disagree in that vpip/pfr is one of the first things to.converge so.you can clearly see your gap there is too big (unless there is a ton of epic limping where you play so you end up over limping a lot whereas on other sites those same players fold and you would be open raising.

You aren't stealing from the button enough; it shouldn't be nearly identical from your CO.

U clearly aren't 3betting very light which is OK but you are likely missing value 3bets and some just clear balance 3bs from bu/sb/BBC.

My shouldn't be ur 2nd highest 3bet spot although that is obviously a result of sample size


SIG1   United States. Sep 29 2016 19:56. Posts 651

Just did some math and I need 30k hands for 30 sample size per hand/position, 100k hands for 90+ sample size. Got a lot of grinding to do but gonna be tough with a job. At least I feel like I have some direction with poker atm since I can't commit to tournaments anymore.


 



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