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DFS NBA Wed |
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Sanai United States. Feb 05 2014 20:56. Posts 643 | | |
Was gonna wait for Gadget's blogpost, but I figured I'd just go ahead and start. Seems like there's a growing interest in DFS here on LP so hopefully some of you find my thoughts on tonight's games useful. I'm pretty newb myself so please feel free to jump in if you disagree or want to discuss something further.
Wednesdays are huge nights for Daily NBA Fantasy. 12 games on schedule for tonight with a lot of minefields, hot prospects, and value picks to be found.
On a night like this, having a dependable idea of lineups is huge. Lot of fantasy sites out there have lineup projections, but I like to cross-check these with official injury reports from the teams themselves (Twitter is often the best source for these). For example, the Lakers have had some huge roster turmoil over the past day with the 2 Steves coming back and Meeks getting injured last night (ARGHHHH MY GPPPPPPS). Also, just because a player back doesn't mean I will pick him. I don't like to pick players on their first night back because they are usually on a minutes restriction anyway.
Keep in mind I play primarily on Fanduel with some action on DK. FD values assists slightly less than
Lineups for the night:
Felton
Calathes
DeRozan
Wade
Batum
Wesley Johnson
Jared Sullinger
Carmelo
Varejao
Rondo
Calathes
DeRozan
Wade
Wesley Johnson
JR Smith
B. Bass
Blake Griffin
DeMarcus Cousins
General reasoning behind lineups:
There are some choice PG picks tonight. Lowry has proven himself a monster and he has a juicy matchup against Sacramento. Kyrie playing on home turf (+10 FP differential) against a discombobulated Lakers roster? Both are solid PG picks IMO.
HOWEVER, I chose to spend most of my money in other areas so I went for cheaper PGs who I believe have high upsides. I've avoided Rondo for a while as I usually do with recently returned players, but I decided tonight was the night to invest in him because 1) his price was still relatively cheap due to the market being scared, 2) he has just as high of an upside as more expensive PGs on the board (35-45 FPs), and 3) they have consistently played him for 27-30 minutes and he has passed the screening tests. With a day of rest and a 19P/6R/10A perf under his belt, he should kill it tonight. I wanted to save my money so I used Calathes as the discount 2nd PG. No chance of Conley coming back so Calathes should see a full complement of minutes against Calderon who is not known for defense.
SG was one area where I did not want to pinch pennies, mainly because the usual stable of midtier dependable SGs just weren't there tonight. Players like Meeks, Oladipo, Tyreke, Martin, who come in around 5-6k all had bad matchups or bad ceilings tonight. DeRozan was a nobrainer - Sac is notoriously shitty against guards and DeRozan's style is perfect against them. I went with Wade because he's had a full day of rest and when he plays, LBJ tends to hook him up. Also, check Heat's other game this year against LAC. Most importantly, both SGs here were significantly cheaper than the other S-class studs on schedule, but have similar high upside.
SFs were tough. You either emptied your pockets for Durant or LBJ (even Gay is expensive nowadays) or you tried to find value where you could. I dipped into the CLE-LAL matchup and chose Wesley Johnson for several reasons: 1) He is starting at SF tonight and there really is no one else to take that spot from him, 2) he filled up the scoreboard quite nicely last time against CLE, 2)CLE is 3rd worst in the league against SFs in the last 15 games (keep trying Deng). I considered Deng as an option here, but I thought WJ could provide similar value for cheaper. Also, in the event of a blowout, Deng will sit sooner than WJ. Batum and JR are just solid cashgame plays who should be able to make their value (esp Batum who had a great game against the Knicks last time and faces an easier matchup against Prigioni). JR I'm less sure about, but that's what you have to deal with when you avoid the studs at SF.
PF picks were straight-forward. One stud + one value combo. Blake should do well vs MIA, he's really their main scoring option, and MIA has always struggled with aggressive post guys. Same for Carmelo against Portland, he's going to be shooting the ball a lot, and he dropped like 37 on them last time so it was an easy bet for me. I think the more interesting picks at PF were my value picks. I was searching for the perfect forward from the BOS-PHI matchup and I settled on Jared Sullinger. PHI has no PFs I'd like to spend money on so I looked to Boston. Boston's front court is one of those annoying ones where everyone gets around 20-25 minutes per game in a vacuum and you kinda have to be able to pick out whoever's getting hot that week. JS is hot right now, he's won himself 30+ minutes over the past 2 games, and one of those games was against PHI where he dropped 24P/17R. Bass was the cheaper option b/c he is the current option over Humphries and I think he can scramble up a bottom-of-the-barrel double double tonight against PHI (~10/12), which is all he needs to make value.
Just want to go on record and say that I am a huge Boogie fan and because of this emotional weakness, I do tend to pick him when I can over equivalent candidates (obv not when I think he's weaker). Luckily for me, his price has gone down a bit on FD, what with fears over his ankle injury and such. I gave him space on his first game back and, well, you can check the stats. I think he has a great matchup tonight against Valanciunas. The spread is +/-1 and it's predicted to be a high-scoring game. As for Varejao, he should have a field day against the Lakers' Gasol-less interior. Good thing about Centers is that even if they are not the scoring option (Kyrie is in this case), they can easily make value through boards given the right matchup. This was the right matchup IMO.
So there you have my breakdown for tonight. I rarely follow the roto sites' "suggested plays" these days, except for some double-checking and such, so I realize my picks may be a little unconventional. I see a lot of Wall, Beal, Deng, Vucey and other people being touted about. I'm interested to see how this night goes b/c it's probably my most deviant lineup from the popular columns.
I know the games already started so my bad. Meant to post this sooner. Will try to do that next time if people want.
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Daut  United States. Feb 05 2014 23:10. Posts 8955 | | |
only threw together one quick DK lineup tonight. had a bad week, havent been grinding much, but wednesday was worth playing
Pos Player FPTS
PG Ty Lawson 39.75 lock
SG DeMar DeRozan 14 lock
SF Wesley Johnson 37.25 lock
PF DeMarcus Cousins 23.75 lock
C Anderson Varejao 43.75 lock
G Avery Bradley 24 lock
F Khris Middleton 40.25 lock
UTIL Brandon Knight 33.25 lock
TOTAL FANTASY POINTS: 256.00
big games from the low salary guys, still a half left from derozan+boogie, and a few minutes left for lawson+knight+middleton, could put up 330 if i run hot and maybe do well in the small gpp to get some my mini DFS bankroll back. should have thrown in more lineups, but was grinding and not really paying much attention.
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| NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut | Last edit: 05/02/2014 23:12 |
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Daut United States. Feb 06 2014 00:05. Posts 8955 | | |
i should have made more than one lineup just to have exposure to blake and lebron. blake is going off and i doubt it stops, wouldnt be surprised to see a 40/20 out of him. bad move mr daut. |
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| NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut | |
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Sanai United States. Feb 06 2014 00:26. Posts 643 | | |
Yeah, on a 12-game night, I usually shoot for 2-3 lineups and run each one through a gauntlet of H2H's and 50/50s. I've found this decreases variance the most for me.
Nice Khris Middleton pickup. I stayed away from the Den/Mil game because I got scared by the spread. Thought it had high blowout potential. Some of the Vegas lines were terribly wrong today and I'm suffering for it. |
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TimDawg United States. Feb 06 2014 12:20. Posts 10197 | | | |
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| online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball | |
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Sanai United States. Feb 06 2014 16:03. Posts 643 | | |
lol that video about summed up his performance yesterday. |
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Nice post how did you do? |
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