Full Tilt Gaming License suspended - Page 2

On June 29 2011 06:56 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2011 06:23 Defrag wrote: Dave, I just posted news on this ;p He owned you by 26 minutes.

Not in competition, just wanted to contribute. =)

makes sense

so what odds would you put on us seeing our money from full tilt heropoker-ceo?

On June 29 2011 08:09 fakeshaver wrote: so what odds would you put on us seeing our money from full tilt heropoker-ceo?

You want my full on direct honest opinion? It will be the same I shared with my own pros from day one.

I ask this because you really gotta be prepared for it, cause it's not a pretty answer. I'm not here to interfere or add fuel to the fire; it's not something I would have shared publicly on day one of this all.

On June 29 2011 08:14 HeroPoker-CEO wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2011 08:09 fakeshaver wrote: so what odds would you put on us seeing our money from full tilt heropoker-ceo? You want my full on direct honest opinion? It will be the same I shared with my own pros from day one. I ask this because you really gotta be prepared for it, cause it's not a pretty answer. I'm not here to interfere or add fuel to the fire; it's not something I would have shared publicly on day one of this all.

Yes, of course we want to hear it. And I think most ppl understand that it is pretty fucked up now

which is?

RUMOUR that just came out from QuadJacks:

- FTP will reopen in couple hours
- No alderney logos
- You'll need to accept a new T&C
- They'll operate without a license!

qj.com is saying they are reopening in a few hours without the license and a new terms of service.

lol @ operating w/o license

hope you guys get your money

On June 29 2011 08:40 johnmagi wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2011 08:14 HeroPoker-CEO wrote:   On June 29 2011 08:09 fakeshaver wrote: so what odds would you put on us seeing our money from full tilt heropoker-ceo? You want my full on direct honest opinion? It will be the same I shared with my own pros from day one. I ask this because you really gotta be prepared for it, cause it's not a pretty answer. I'm not here to interfere or add fuel to the fire; it's not something I would have shared publicly on day one of this all. Yes, of course we want to hear it. And I think most ppl understand that it is pretty fucked up now

It's more than fucked up now.
My opinion only and what I've advised to my own pros:
1.US players will eventually get their funds, but likely not from FTP but from DOJ distribution, in as much as DOJ actually holds in the bank accounts. If the company was solvent at the time, then I would have said, 100% of player funds returned for the USA, but why I say likely DOJ is because: from a corporate business perspective the FTP management is a wreak, there is no way any sane business professional would recommend to invest there...

New situation:
2.Foreign situation much worse because the license is suspended but related bank accounts are not, so these accounts are still in full control of FTP.

Two positive scenarios of this are:
a. Suspension is lifted in a short period, day or week later, business will take at least a 50% hit. I won't say that every player will withdraw. Simply because players are trusting and hopeful that this will be the end of it.
b. Suspension is not lifted, FTP switches provider, business takes at least a 75% hit. 25% continue for same reason above.
Unsustainable scenario and pretty bad:
c. FTP goes off on its own because it cannot find a licensee, business takes at least a 85% hit. Because payment solutions will rescind their agreements.


Implications are those situation are two fold:
a. No new investment or sufficient investment thus business becomes insolvent due to reduced cash flow or.
b. Business continues as is, but its a ticking time bomb as the liability of the DOJ settlement/fine looms

Bottom line:
US players may get some of their money back, but to get all of it back, FTP must remain solvent, but even if goes under DOJ still has FTP accounts.
Foreign players are completely fucked if FTP goes under as even if the suspension is lifted, unless the gaming commission had access to those funds, there is zero leverage to get funds to the players. Also the DOJ indictment fine/settlement will still remain and any liquidity of assets will likely be directed there first as the FTP CEO is American and then funds would likely go to major suppliers/vendors and then if there are any funds remaining, a trustee would have to be appointed, but considering the cash flow situation, it is highly unlikely that there will be much left to distribute at that point, especially if the business drags on like UB/AB while they continue to burn overhead.

If my pros, which a couple of them still do, have money on FTP, I recommend, that even if FTP goes unlicensed or whatever, to take the funds off if they are non US players. It's an obvious point now and yes there will be a run on the bank, but at this point, from my perspective, FTP was going down anyway, if you can just get anything off then do it. I would have called a miracle river card for FTP, but at this point, whether it happens in 1 month or 1 year, these guys are drawing dead. Their brand can't survive this blow plus the outstanding DOJ settlement/fine. It's just too much damage for any company to take, it's the equivalent of Pepsi of being banned in the US for possibly putting nicotine in the drink and then its international distribution gets halted and then Pepsi possibly needs to go to Africa to restart bottling/distribution. That being said, people will still play on FTP after this is all over, but regardless, now its the foreign players who are most at risk now.

Now people can argue with me, but from a business perspective, no one can say to me that FTP will be alright until after the DOJ settlement and that will be the first real moment to see if FTP will actually survive in some form or another. Its like saying, FTP is ok, fine, they can handle things, when there is a nuclear missile on route.

The criteria for survival are:
1. license (new one or unsuspended) (less than 1 month)
2. amount of DOJ fine/settlement and how long (less than 1 year)

If they can't get 1 resolved in less than 1 month and then can't get the DOJ resolved with a reasonable fine, 150M or less and within 1 year.
Its pretty much over from my business perspective. If they can fulfill the above criteria, they will survive a bit longer, but you may hear rumours that FTP didn't accept investment for 200M or so, because that would barely cover the DOJ settlement alone. But foreign players are really screwed because no one holds those bank accounts except for FTP and if their previous accounting is any indication who knows how much is the difference between the virtual and liquid balances?

Sorry. Sincerely.
*please respect my contribution to LP and do not repost or link this anywhere else. Thanks, David.

Thanks for your contribution David. Everything you said looks about right to me aside from the confidence that the DOJ will pay back US players. I think that might come from just the distrust I have in the US government. I think there is a good chance they will find a legal way to keep the money. I mean FTP is gonna go under and owe the DOJ the 4 billion or w/e they were fined so DOJ will probably keep everything in the seized accounts.

If by some miracle the DOJ decides to pay out to players from the frozen funds it'll probably be 3+ years at least before people start to see any money.

I'd say at this point 90% chance no FTP players see any money.

I don't understand how could this happend to the 2nd biggest site... is PS safe? whats the difference between PS and FTP?
If FTP players dont get their money back it will be sick blow to the online poker industry.

PS paid all their players back within like a week. They're at pretty much zero risk of getting their license suspended. PS is run by professionals while FTP is run by baboons.

Another big difference between pokerstars and ftp is their dependence on American players, while FTP was very small until the UIGEA happened pokerstars was the 2nd biggest room already (after PartyPoker). Stars is very strong in some European markets like Italy and France, which are ranked #6 and #8th by itself biggest as network according to pokerscout.

On June 29 2011 12:46 Liquid`Meat wrote: Another big difference between pokerstars and ftp is their dependence on American players, while FTP was very small until the UIGEA happened pokerstars was the 2nd biggest room already (after PartyPoker). Stars is very strong in some European markets like Italy and France, which are ranked #6 and #8th by itself biggest as network according to pokerscout.

afaik this numbers are false

On June 29 2011 12:28 Stim_Abuser wrote: Thanks for your contribution David. Everything you said looks about right to me aside from the confidence that the DOJ will pay back US players. I think that might come from just the distrust I have in the US government. I think there is a good chance they will find a legal way to keep the money. I mean FTP is gonna go under and owe the DOJ the 4 billion or w/e they were fined so DOJ will probably keep everything in the seized accounts. If by some miracle the DOJ decides to pay out to players from the frozen funds it'll probably be 3+ years at least before people start to see any money. I'd say at this point 90% chance no FTP players see any money.

Just to say, it took about 9 months before Neteller paid out funds when they were indicted, but it did happen. The people who are at the DOJ are your nation's most highly educated and capable people, in any case with the DOJ, FTP would come to a settlement before an actual trial; to do so would be to risk a very long and expensive trial along with exposure to a very long sentence...

I found pretty pathetic from FTP that even PokerStars beat them into making an statement regarding this situation lol

<3<3 PokerStars

On June 29 2011 12:52 maryn wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2011 12:46 Liquid`Meat wrote: Another big difference between pokerstars and ftp is their dependence on American players, while FTP was very small until the UIGEA happened pokerstars was the 2nd biggest room already (after PartyPoker). Stars is very strong in some European markets like Italy and France, which are ranked #6 and #8th by itself biggest as network according to pokerscout. afaik this numbers are false

Well I can't verify the numbers provided by pokerscout, but the point is that those rooms are big by itself and pokerstars is still banking hard even without US players.

The statement sTrAtO is referring to can be found here: http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/2011/statement-from-pokerstars-083011.html

Note: PokerStars issued this statement today regarding the suspension of Full Tilt Poker's license: "In light of today's news that Alderney Gambling Control Commission has suspended Full Tilt Poker's license, PokerStars wishes to assure our customers that their funds are completely safe and that our operations are completely unaffected. The Isle of Man Gaming Commission today re-affirmed that PokerStars' worldwide licensing is intact and that our operations are in full compliance with all of its requirements. PokerStars' online operations continue as normal and all funds in players' accounts are safe and available for withdrawal as usual with no delays. PokerStars also remains in full compliance with our licenses in other jurisdictions where we are regulated, including France, Italy and Estonia. As provided under our licensing, PokerStars has always maintained the integrity and security of our players' funds, by keeping all such funds in segregated bank accounts, always available for immediate withdrawal. Since the actions of US Department of Justice in April, we have returned more than $120 million to US players and continue to act upon requests as they are received. Players outside the US have not been affected and all cash-outs have been processed without delays. Further, PokerStars entered into an agreement with the Department of Justice which expressly confirmed the company's ability to operate outside the US. We will continue to operate as a responsible corporate citizen and are committed to serving the needs of our customers in complete compliance with our regulatory requirements."