Your variance (pokertracker stats)

I remember this was a topic a very long time ago on LP, but games have changed a lot since back then and plus there are a lot of players on LP now that are regular multitablers at 100nl++ that there weren't before, so I think it's ok to rehash this discussion.

I'm interested to know, how big is the variance in the games you play? To take a look go to pokertracker, 'session notes' tab and click "more detail" and quote the number you get for "Standard Deviation/100 hands".

Reply with the following:
1. stakes you played in the sample and what gametype (eg nlh plo hu fr 6max)
2. number of hands (plz dont bother posting without large samples btw)
3. Your standard deviation/100 hands


Also anything you happen to know about what typical values are and whats good.

For me,

1. 5/10 to 25/50 6max/hu
2. 156,283
3. 57.6 big bets/100 hands

Where can i find it in PT3?

On May 07 2008 07:38 Ket wrote: 2. number of hands (plz dont bother posting without large samples btw)

It converges much faster than winrate. Even moderate sample sizes will do.
I use HEM now, and I don't think it has this value anywhere. I'll see if I can come up with it by hand though.

1. 0.5/1 to 1/2
2. 70k
3. 41bb/100

1. 100NL 6-max
2. 82k
3. 53.6bb/100

i want neilly's!

On May 07 2008 08:03 BigBird wrote: 1. 0.5/1 to 1/2 2. 70k 3. 41bb/100

full ring?

Ok, got it from my HEM db (if anyone else uses HEM and wants it, I can explain how).

1. 0.5/1 nl 6max
2. 33k
3. 45.5 PTBB for 100 hands

1. 1/2 nl 6max
2. 6k
3. 42.1 PTBB for 100 hands

PS : your 6max and HU SD should be way different Ket, maybe you (c|sh)ould split them ?

good idea

EDIT: damn, pt wont really let me do that using all my sample because you cant automatically filter sessions by how many-handed it was, and a decent amount of my headsup is played on 6max/fr tables which screws up both my 6max stdev and headsup stdev.

But anyway looks like im 85bb/100 stdev for headsup over my last 9k headsup hands (played on headsup tables). Is this an okay sample, exactly how quickly does stdev converge?

55bb/100 stdev over last 12k 6max hands.

64bb/100 stdev over 20k 6max plo hands. more variance in my hu nlhe game than in 6max plo!?!?!?!? i do play pretty tight/straightforward in plo though, which sounds like the opposite of my hu nlhe game

1. .25/.50 NL FR
2. 52k
3. 28 bb/100

0,5/1 nl 6max
85k hands
41 ptbb/100

100nl fr
25k sample (yeah sorry, only have db from last month)
41.5 big bets/100

Here's the HEM query (run it in pgadmin for example) :

SELECT gametypedescription as stakes,COUNT(*) as hands,100*AVG(netamountwon)/(2*bigblind) as winrate,10*STDDEV(netamountwon)/(2*bigblind) as SD FROM playerhandscashkeycolumns,gametypes WHERE player_id in (SELECT player_id FROM players WHERE playername ILIKE '**********YouShouldPutYourScreenNameHere************') AND gametypes.gametype_id=playerhandscashkeycolumns.gametype_id GROUP BY gametypes.gametypedescription,gametypes.bigblind

Don't forget to put your screenname in the query.

1. 1/2 a little 2/4 6max pokerstars
2. 48k hands unfortunately the rest of my stats are on my old computer
3. 56 big bets/100 hands

zomg ur teh clever!!

DB from last month...

NL50 FR
23k hands
37 ptbb/100

NL100 FR
31k hands
31.1 ptbb/100

Also played some NL200, but not many hands there.
(this is 24-tabling on PS btw)

6max:
1. $4/$8 through $50/$100 (very few hands above $10/$20 though)
2. 74,525
3. 59.3366 ptbb/100

hu:
1. $0.25/$0.5 through $5/$10 (most at $1/$2, $2/$4)
2. 29,014
3. 75.1388 ptbb/100

despite that "variance" my winrate over those samples is 8.54ptbb/100 in 6max and 19.02ptbb/100 in HU

1. nl100 6max
2. 13k
3. 64 bigbets/100

On May 07 2008 08:51 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: 6max: 1. $4/$8 through $50/$100 (very few hands above $10/$20 though) 2. 74,525 3. 59.3366 ptbb/100 hu: 1. $0.25/$0.5 through $5/$10 (most at $1/$2, $2/$4) 2. 29,014 3. 75.1388 ptbb/100 despite that "variance" my winrate over those samples is 8.54ptbb/100 in 6max and 19.02ptbb/100 in HU

Over that sample size, there's 99% confidence you're over 3ptbb/100 in 6max and over 7.5ptbb/100 in HU. At 95% confidence, that is >4ptbb/100 in 6max and >10ptbb/100 in HU. Those big numbers don't look that scary

NL50 & NL100 FR
186k hands
33.6 PTBB/100

So what is the significance of this number?

do i win a prize for being the biggest nit?

o i play fr obv

meh cant combine hands from accts but they the same anyway

mine sux like 30/100 / life

1. NL10 and NL 25 - 6max
2. 7377 (yes i know )
3. 131BB/100

I'm a slight loser in that sample btw - went from being 30bb/100 at 3500hands to being -6bb/100 at 7k hands...devistating haha

On May 07 2008 09:01 Catul wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2008 08:51 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: 6max: 1. $4/$8 through $50/$100 (very few hands above $10/$20 though) 2. 74,525 3. 59.3366 ptbb/100 hu: 1. $0.25/$0.5 through $5/$10 (most at $1/$2, $2/$4) 2. 29,014 3. 75.1388 ptbb/100 despite that "variance" my winrate over those samples is 8.54ptbb/100 in 6max and 19.02ptbb/100 in HU Over that sample size, there's 99% confidence you're over 3ptbb/100 in 6max and over 7.5ptbb/100 in HU. At 95% confidence, that is >4ptbb/100 in 6max and >10ptbb/100 in HU. Those big numbers don't look that scary

WUT?? Thats it?

On May 07 2008 09:12 whamm! wrote: mine sux like 30/100 / life

I'm not sure if you get it - the smaller the better.

On May 07 2008 09:01 Catul wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2008 08:51 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: 6max: 1. $4/$8 through $50/$100 (very few hands above $10/$20 though) 2. 74,525 3. 59.3366 ptbb/100 hu: 1. $0.25/$0.5 through $5/$10 (most at $1/$2, $2/$4) 2. 29,014 3. 75.1388 ptbb/100 despite that "variance" my winrate over those samples is 8.54ptbb/100 in 6max and 19.02ptbb/100 in HU Over that sample size, there's 99% confidence you're over 3ptbb/100 in 6max and over 7.5ptbb/100 in HU. At 95% confidence, that is >4ptbb/100 in 6max and >10ptbb/100 in HU. Those big numbers don't look that scary

I'll take that ;p

From the start of the year

400nl-600nl mostly 6max with about 20k hands of HU
180,799 hands
48.612 big bets per 100 hands


... whats this all mean lolol

1. stakes you played in the sample and what gametype (eg nlh plo hu fr 6max) 2. number of hands (plz dont bother posting without large samples btw) 3. Your standard deviation/100 hands

When I played a buttload on UB I didn't save them in PT because it didn't really work.. I don't have large samples really in PT except for a 44k hand sample from Cryptologic which I played in like August and September..

1. 500NL
2. 44210
3. 45.7059 Big Bets (this is low right? What is good?)

This is the graph:



Shitty ending

Oh and this is 6max obv

don't have PT but i remember approx my stats
1.NL200 6max
2.60k i think
3.55BB/100

On May 07 2008 09:08 JYang wrote: meh cant combine hands from accts but they the same anyway

I think you definitely get the nit prize !
If you want to combine several accounts put this in the WHERE clause :

WHERE playername ILIKE 'FirstName' OR playername ILIKE 'SecondName' etc.)

400nl
42~K hands
47.8 BB/100, 6max

1. NL10-NL50 FR
2. 130,000
3. 36BB/100

if i take out NL10 FR which was about 50k hands it becomes...

1. NL25-NL50 FR
2. 84,000
3. 30BB/100

NL10 is the swingiest shit ever im graphing it to see if it went up and down heaps or not

+ Show Spoiler +

Yep, sick swings



This is compared to my NL25-NL50 which has been noticeably smoother sailing

1. 2/4 through 50/100 (most of the hands are on 3/6 and 5/10)
2. 79,645
3. 91.99 bb / 100 hands

On May 07 2008 10:10 The72o wrote: don't have PT but i remember approx my stats 1.NL200 6max 2.60k i think 3.55BB/100

the third number is your standard deviation. this looks like a winrate

On May 07 2008 10:46 tae-g wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2008 10:10 The72o wrote: don't have PT but i remember approx my stats 1.NL200 6max 2.60k i think 3.55BB/100 the third number is your standard deviation. this looks like a winrate

Add a space after the '3.', he didn't put any in 1/2 either

my sexual variance , i would like to have one experience with some lesbian....

On May 07 2008 08:51 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: 6max: 1. $4/$8 through $50/$100 (very few hands above $10/$20 though) 2. 74,525 3. 59.3366 ptbb/100 hu: 1. $0.25/$0.5 through $5/$10 (most at $1/$2, $2/$4) 2. 29,014 3. 75.1388 ptbb/100 despite that "variance" my winrate over those samples is 8.54ptbb/100 in 6max and 19.02ptbb/100 in HU

I am afraid thats "because" of that variance.

.50/1 - 1/2
89,236
35.9411 BB/100

Am i the only person who doesn't understand wtf the bb/100 is supposed to mean in this instance?

anyways

nl25-nl100 (6max)
14,255
51.397..... <-- wtf is this number?

lol, my headsup deviation is 100/bb100

i have no clue.. hoping someone will clear that up.

On May 07 2008 10:56 Catul wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2008 10:46 tae-g wrote:   On May 07 2008 10:10 The72o wrote: don't have PT but i remember approx my stats 1.NL200 6max 2.60k i think 3.55BB/100 the third number is your standard deviation. this looks like a winrate Add a space after the '3.', he didn't put any in 1/2 either

too lazy to hit space that many times lol

standard deviation, its a measure of statistical dispersion.

1. NL10 FR
2. 77k hands
3. 88.74 big bets/100

so in order to have a huge winrate you have to have higher variance? Why did someone say earlier in the thread that its better than have a low number?

and obviously if you have a huge winrate you're pushing smaller edges to squeeze out that winrate so you're gonna have a bigger amount of short term variance (100 hands)

This statistic seems useless at best to me because it doesn't really tell you anything

1) 3/6 up to 50/100
2) 150k
3) 67bb/100

1) NL 200 - NL 400
2) 132K hands
3) 84 bb/100 std dev

1) PLO 25, 50, 100
2) 157k hands
3) 55bb/100

I'm surprised I would have thought it would be higher.

1) 400-1000nl 70% FR, 30% 6m
2) 240k hands
3) 43.6021 big bets / 100.

wish i knew what that meant.

1) 5/10 and 10/20 (90% 6max, 10% fullring)
2) 102k
3) 39 bb/100

1. NL25 - NL200
2. 273k
3. 38BB/10

On May 07 2008 12:47 CrownRoyal wrote: and obviously if you have a huge winrate you're pushing smaller edges to squeeze out that winrate so you're gonna have a bigger amount of short term variance (100 hands) This statistic seems useless at best to me because it doesn't really tell you anything

It shows you how tight you're playing, the tighter you play the lower your variance (i'm assuming). Also you can more or less infer the level of competition from this number. If you play a generally tight game but your variance is high it might mean you're sitting in a tough game. (Once again I'm just assuming this, using my shitty logic, which could be wrong). But if it's right I think it's pretty interesting and not at all useless.

nl100-600
300k+
~30bb/100

95988 hands
1/2 and some 2/4 6 max
48.6BB/100

nut peddling nits.....

On May 07 2008 12:46 CrownRoyal wrote: so in order to have a huge winrate you have to have higher variance? Why did someone say earlier in the thread that its better than have a low number?

You probably won't achieve a high winrate on higher stakes without having a high standard deviation, but for a given winrate, the smaller the deviation is, the better.

On May 07 2008 16:23 MaidenFan wrote: It shows you how tight you're playing, the tighter you play the lower your variance (i'm assuming).

That's only true to a certain extent. For example in the sample I posted, my SD was only at 31.1 for nl100, but I was playing a rather LAG style (at least for FR that is - stats around 19/15). I guess the level of competition plays a bigger role.

fucking lucksacks lol

.5/1 1/2 2/4 3/6 6m and same for hu, bulk of hands at 1/2 and 2/4 6max
176936 hands
57.22

NL50 - NL100 6max and FR.
37k hands
41.37bb

I don't play much though. What do the numbers mean? The higher the deviation, the greater the variance I'm guessing?

standard deviation squared = your variance so yes, the higher the more variance

explanation:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/pokerarticle/146441/The_bankroll_management_and_variance_guide

200nl - 1000nl
266k
42.8

NL 3/6 - 5/10 with a small amount (<5% SH/HU games)


243,282 hands
42.3109 BB/100 SD

2.89/100 winrate Catul can u work out my confidence & winrate?

At 95% confidence : 1.2 to 4.6
At 97% confidence : 1.0 to 4.8
At 99% confidence : 0.7 to 5.1

(that's assuming both are in PTBB)

ty

damnit i wish i'm not too lazy to fix my PT ;(

had a 10 buyin downswing a couple days and i have one of these at least once a month so i'm so goddamn curious on what my variance will look like