UFC FN 189: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai - Page 6

Leaning to Dolidze...probably GTD. For now betting GTD..and Rd3+ win for each.

It's ironic that referee Keith Peterson's nickname is "No Nonsense."

It's a little risky but just to experiment bc I feel pretty sure about Tybura winning (in most scenarios)

if we parlay Tybura/Rozen we get +140. $50 on that returns $140 or +$90
if we parlay Tybura/Sakai we get +206 $50 on that returns $153 or +$103 so either

A) Tybura loses and we lose $100 and gain $0
B) Tybura wins and Rozen wins. We lose $50 and win $140 for $90 profit
C) Tybura wins and Sakai wins. We lose $50 and win $153 for a $103 profit.

Risk of A) happening but if we are pretty sure of A winning then we can bet either fighter in B vs C and win money either way. The more we wager the more we are guaranteed.


Maybe it will be profittable to Parlay all possible outcomes of the 2 fights and still be GTD if they are all PLUS money


Harris/Rozn = +358 $50 returns $228
Harris/Sakai = +400, $50 returns $250


We wager more money overall so if the lower +monies hit we might be closer to breaking even but if the less likely scenarios hold up then we stand to win a lot more

This way we lose $150 either way...so we can 1) lose $60, 2)lose $47 3)win $75 and 4) win $100


could play around with wagering more on the more likely scenarios. We would win more win they cashed and win less when they didn't but could probably guarantee low losses and high payout chances

On June 06 2021 01:04 PuertoRican wrote: It's ironic that referee Keith Peterson's nickname is "No Nonsense."

True

Well..I think Walt is done lol

was trying to add more to the Tybura/Rozn and Tybura/Sakai parlay options...couldnlt ever get it in

I'm leaning toward Rozen in this last one..I think he finds the shot. I am guessing later finish.....Rds3+ but most likely "Rd 5 or decision"

Marcin Tybura with the easy win after defending against the Walt Harris flurry that he does in every fight.

One more win to go, and this will be a decent day for me.

needed that one
Tybura ML +$296.80

Tybura by KO +$156

Tybura in R1-2 +$56.25

Fight won in R1-2 +$36.40

Fight won in R1 +$37.60
U1.5 +$45


Lost
Tybura by Sub -$10
Harris win in R1-2 -$10
Rd3+ $10
Win in R2 -$20

$627.85-$50= +$577.85

Got a prop on Rozn by KO $25 to pay $58.75
RD5+ $50 to pay $125
accidental bet on Rd3 win $20 to pay $150, might as well keep it going.
ML $25 on Rozen to pay $45.75

probably have more on the fight at the bottom of my bet list....

+$25 Live on Rozn

well...R1 lol almost anti-climatic

Early stoppage, but it is what it is.

I didn't realize it but apparently a $3335 bet made it thru on the Boser fight :/ (he was at -3335!!)
I swear when I tried to put it in it kept denying it until it was no longer available but it is what it is.

I would be up had it not been for that..i think I lost almost $4k on that fight. I want to say lesson learned but I mean...he had that fight and he should have had it and really he should have won how it played out but he really should have done better than that and would a higher percent of the time, I think. I made the bet in a good spot with not much time left. But that is probably too much to bet at one time really. It looked like a really good value spot but that is too risky for what little you win from it. Good night otherwise and I'm not worried about it. I think I can get that back pretty easily.


Then of course we have the Jones fight that got pushed. I would have won a lot from that. Good night and I feel a lot more confident about betting UFC fights.
.Really look into what I was talking about with parlaying all results or more realistically the likely results of two fights and having a guaranteed profit. I wil probably try to do that with multiple fights on the next card...just picking 2 fights and parlaying the different possibilities. You almost always get a +money line and I don't think it would be necessary to bet on all 4 possible outcomes but even if you do I think the bets could be adjusted based on which ones were more likely so that a profit is GUARANTEED.


DK -$2800 MyBookie +~$400

Daaaaammm You didn't even bet on De La Rosa? Oh I see it now

Any parlays?

On June 06 2021 02:02 warrendeape wrote: Any parlays?

No parlays.

As you can see with my bet list, I only felt confident in 2 bets. Most of my bets were $5-$30 since I wasn't confident on much this weekend.

As for the real life example on another note:

We have two fights

Walt Harris v Tybura and Rozen/Sakai

Possible outcomes

A) Tybura wins / Rozen Wins (+140)
B) Tybura wins / Sakai Wins (+206)
C) Harris wins / Rozen Wins (+358)
D) Harris wins / Sakai Wins (+400)

The +358 and +400 might be worth a sprinkle. I think one could sprinkle them and come out on top no matter what happens. Idk yet, but I was only interested in the +140 and +206 lines. Let's say we bet $20 on both A) and B) to cover whover wins Rzn/Sakai


1)Tybura loses we lose $40 (we were going to bet on Tybura anyway)***
2)Tybura wins / Rozen wins we win $28 at +140 and lose $20 on 3). $8 profit.
3) Tybura wins / Sakai wins we win $41.20 at +206 and lose $20 on 2). $21.20 profit.

So if we are going to bet on Tybura ML anyway, if we parlay it with EITHER possible winner of Rozn/Sakai then we are GUARANTEED to win either $8 more or $21.20 depending on who wins, given that Tybura does win.


change the amount to $40 - we win either $16 or $42.40 more
change it to $100 - we win either $40 or $106 more, guaranteed.
change it to $200 - we win $80 or $212, guaranteed
etc.

Obviously it does hurt more when we lose our original ML pick since we lose both parlays but if we get better at picking the winner then we lose less. Also, I want to play with the math and see how close we can get to guaranteeing a profitt either way or at least limiting losses even if it means guaranteeing less when we do hit.


***You can always create the parlay in the example above while Tybura is fighting. Although it will lower your parlay +moneyLine, (and to what extent depending on how certain it is that Tybura is going to win) it is a good way to avoid situation 1) above and to guarantee a bet that profits you no matter who wins the fight you parlay (as long as the parlay money lines are still +money and they almost always certainly are though some times they will be below +100)

On June 06 2021 02:06 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 06 2021 02:02 warrendeape wrote: Any parlays? No parlays. As you can see with my bet list, I only felt confident in 2 bets. Most of my bets were $5-$30 since I wasn't confident on much this weekend.

I see. That makes sense. Could play around with HUGE favorites just to try to get a better line but yes it all comes down to confidence in your pics, sure.