UFC FN 189: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

Date: Saturday, June 5
Main Card (ESPN+): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN+): 21:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST
Live Streams: http://ripple.stream/mmastreams




Main Card (ESPN+)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-2) vs. Augusto Sakai (15-2-1) (Heavyweight)
Walt Harris (13-9) vs. Marcin Tybura (21-6) (Heavyweight)
Roman Dolidze (8-1) vs. Laureano Staropoli (9-3) (Middleweight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (27-4) vs. Miguel Baeza (10-0) (Welterweight)
Dusko Todorovic (10-1) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (9-3) (Middleweight)
Tom Breese (12-3) vs. Antonio Arroyo (9-4) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

Montana De La Rosa (11-6-1) vs. Ariane Lipski (13-6) (Women's Flyweight)
Tanner Boser (19-7-1) vs. Ilir Latifi (14-8) (Heavyweight)
Francisco Trinaldo (26-7) vs. Muslim Salikhov (17-2) (Welterweight)
Makwan Amirkhani (16-5) vs. Kamuela Kirk (11-4) (Featherweight)
Alan Patrick (15-3) vs. Mason Jones (10-1) (Lightweight)
Manon Fiorot (6-1) vs. Tabatha Ricci (5-0) (Women's Flyweight)
Sean Woodson (7-1) vs. Youssef Zalal (10-4) (Featherweight)
Claudio Puelles (9-2) vs. Jordan Leavitt (8-0) (Lightweight)

Other

- Alessio Di Chirico was expected to face Roman Dolidze in a middleweight bout at the event. However, Di Chirico pulled out of the contest in mid-May due to an injury. He was replaced by Laureano Staropoli on May 22.
- Dusko Todorovic and Maki Pitolo were expected to take place at this event. However, Pitolo pulled out due to an injury. Gregory Rodrigues replaced Pitolo on May 24.
- Nate Landwehr and Makwan Amirkhani were expected to meet in a featherweight contest. Due to an injury, Landwehr pulled out of the bout and was replaced by Kamuela Kirk on May 26.
- Maryna Moroz and Manon Fiorot were expected to meet in the women's flyweight division. However, Moroz withdrew from the event due to undisclosed reasons and was replaced by promotional newcomer Tabatha Ricci on June 3.

My bets thus far:

• Sakai/Rozenstruik O1½ -145 $217.50 for $150
• Marcin Tybura -155 $77.50 for $50
• Marcin Tybura -157 $157 for $100
• Ponzinibbio/Baeza U1½ +140 $15 for $21
• Gregory Rodrigues +130 $20 for $26

----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Sakai > Rozenstruik
• Tybura > Harris
• Dolidze > Staropoli
• Ponzinibbio > Baeza
• Rodrigues > Todorovic
• Breese vs. Arroyo (dunno)
• Amirkhani > Kirk
• Rosa > Lipski
• Boser > Latifi
• Trinaldo vs. Salikhov (dunno)
• Jones > Patrick
• Moroz > Fiorot
• Woodson > Zalal
• Puelles vs. Leavitt (dunno)

I have GTd props on this one. Favoring Levitt prefight

On June 05 2021 20:13 warrendeape wrote: I have GTd props on this one. Favoring Levitt prefight

Puelles vs. Leavitt O1.5 -189 for $15.

Live bet: O2.5 -126

Unfortunately I can't live bet props..on DK anyway...I didnt get all of mine in..was trying to get the O. Not sure if i did.

Puellas looking good.

Putting in a ML bet on Puellas during the break (obviously) . I like the pace of live betting MMA vs bball.

I got over $2k on the De La Rosa ML across 2 skins.

I saw that O2.5 -126 line right after Round 1 ended... Nothing dangerous happened in R1 at all. It was a big mistake by my sportsbook, too bad I didn't bet more than $20... I was eating lunch while watching -- oh well.

i think Woodson fight is O2.5 also.....RD3+/decision. Going Woodson by dec prefight.
fight GTD

Live bet: Y. Zalal -126

hard to judge ..yeah that TD was big i think I'll wait Woodson looking tentative and not dominant on feet

got a bet in on Woodson at +700

another in at +280. Hope he is not down 2-1. I think it could be 10-9, 9-10. I feel he will get the 3rd Rd.

in the last fight I wasn't allowed to bet during the 3rd rd. Odd..

( i think they need to change the position...) nothing happening

I'd say 10-8 R3 Woodson...Zilal can't do anything

Personally I think that the later rounds should be weighed more because if you are winning at fight at the end of the fight...well, I'd say you won the fight.

I'll say U2.5 and Fiorot by TKO,KO ...ITD

$15 on Fiorot by sub at +1200
$10 on Fiorot by Dec +240
$15 ITD
$25 Fiorot by KO -120


If Ricci is able to take Fiorot down she may be able to control her and win rounds or at least make it to the decision.


$10 on R1-2
Ricci by sub $10 +750
Ricci by dec $10 +600
lol covered everything i guess

Ricci too small

Live bet dropped $3k on Fiorot.

Not a bad first by Ricci...she's staying in it...

oh no....let's no take it to the ground lol

Phew that is the first time ive bet hard on someone and they actually came through for me.


Next fight I think is very similar, similar styles with Patrick having a better chance to get it to the ground...Similar outcome I think. Moneybon Jones mostly to get it done in the ring as long as he doesnt get held down for 2rds

Will be exciting

I sprinkled a little on different winning outcomes for Jones but added more to go heavy on TKO or KO.

The more time that goes by I think he will get stronger at the same time that Patick will fade hard.

R2 Jones is +480 and R3 +650 put a bit on both

Mason Jones KO/TKO/DQ/Submission -111 for $15

Dropped 2k more on Jones moneyline

and 2K more to win about $200 each bet
hmmm last one didn't go thru

then it was available again at -2000 and it locked up.


Funny how they do that lol

I'm just glad Patrick survived to R2

Patricking trying to be Royce Gracie of UFC 1

woah....no contest? wonder what that means for the bets

holy shit

Partick just gave up

if the fight finished I probably would have won about $350 on it

I'm leaning toward Kirk as a good live dog. I think he will need to survive early TD/submission attempts but will be able to last to the end.

Pretty even matchup I think. I'm betting a late fight, possible decision

On June 05 2021 21:26 PuertoRican wrote: Mason Jones KO/TKO/DQ/Submission -111 for $15

No Contest = you're fucked on DraftKings

As for my $15 on Mason Jones ITD -111, it was graded as a push/void.

damn that will cost about $2k which is BS...I hope it's not the case...that was such BS. He just wanted out of the fight. Hell it was over in R1

I'm liking Kirk in this one

idk man....
it's really starting to piss me off how they lock up your abillity to bet when you want to...I think they already have enough of an advantage

as for now the Jones bets are still "OPEN" so...nothing decided on them yet


I know when Verdum had whatshisname tap out the other day, and then the ref missed it and he got punched out...I heard that DK (I think it was) still rewarded ppl who bet for a Verdum win... if that is the case, that is promising.

I think Kirk did enough but I think Amaikani will get it with the judges

Not sure how the judges will score it. Terrible fight between 2 guys who gassed, but 1 had a full camp while the other was fighting on short notice.

nice

Betting on Trinaldo....
late fight ending late..probably GTD

They voided or pushed the MJones bets. Still sucks but much better outcome than to lose the bets completely.

Trinaldo needs to get closer and stay closer..he is staying too far on the outside

Salikov will fade in R2 and R3 i think....that was his best R1....
unfortunately for me...good ending for him

I missed the uppcut...
I will put $40 on Trinaldo at +500 though

After R1, I would've bet fights goes to decision, even after Muslim got the KD. Too bad my book didn't offer it for this fight for some reason.

trying to parlay Salikov but ofc it locks up for 10 min

I put a $100 on a Salikov, Tybura, De La Rosa parlay...my god placing a bet is sooo tilting.


and for Patrick to just cop out on that eye poke, pathetic

$75 parlay on De La Rosa, Boser, Breese, and Tybura

Boser vs Latifi will be interesting..I think Latifi has a good chance but it is hard to see him winning unless he just sits on Boser and gets in a little GnP

I think he will definitely get some TDs. Not sure how well Boser will respond to them. Im betting more on Boser Rd3or Dec. he is plus money (and so is Latifi)...in RD+ and by decision

Boser/Latifi decision -126 for $20

Yeah for DK and I think with MyBookie also, once a game or fight starts props are off the table

DK has a Rd3 or Decision prop which I think is great value... last fight I bet the line to get $100. I think I will start betting it harder. I wanted to go harder on it last fight, but hard to do prefight....but you win no matter who wins.

Latifi...the new DC lollolol

i put a little on Latif by dec it was +300 i think .. No that was Rd3 or decision. by decision I think was +600

Boser can't let Latif get those hands locked or it's time for a trip

was getting +money on Boser for a sec..not long enough to bet

He's going to have to do enough damage to negate at least 1 TD a round...

Live bet: Tanner Boser -126 (near end of R1)

I was about to put $5k on De la Rosa but...figured that would be a bit much. Hopefuly what I have on her will hold.

I'll go ahead and drop $500 more on Boser..it keeps getting help up though


from the time I clicked submit to go thru, line dropped -200 pts

let's go $1k more....hopefully Latif gets to 3rd rd

nm they didn't allow it to go thru...of course


Every time they wait until I go to bet...it starts "processing, then they raise the price almost 2x"

fucking BS man. Before that, the bet slip locks up. It's so rigged I see what it is illegal in so many places.



they literally won't allow me to live bet

Split-decision incoming since Tanner Boser was -126 as Round 1 was ending.

will be interesting..would have been nice for Boser to have got up...easier said than done ofc. I think they should have stood it up at one or two points though. I didn't think Latifi was doing enough.

He didnt improve his position for what 2-3 minutes?

Boser looked 100% content just laying on his back in Round 3. He didn't try to get up at all.

Hopefully for his sake he doesn't lose a decision. It'd be sad and funny considering how little damage Latifi did over the course of 15 minutes.

oh damn....lost a bit on that one....good thing the bets didn't go thu lol

On June 05 2021 22:55 PuertoRican wrote: Boser looked 100% content just laying on his back in Round 3. He didn't try to get up at all. Hopefully for his sake he doesn't lose a decision. It'd be sad and funny considering how little damage Latifi did over the course of 15 minutes.

On June 05 2021 22:55 PuertoRican wrote: Boser looked 100% content just laying on his back in Round 3. He didn't try to get up at all. Hopefully for his sake he doesn't lose a decision. It'd be sad and funny considering how little damage Latifi did over the course of 15 minutes.

I know. that was really a BS decision. He got 2 TDs and did no dmg with either nor improved his position the entire time. That's all he did for the entire fight. Sucks that Boser just laid there. I think Latifi is just that heavy

I'm a bit nervous about this one. Rosa NEEDS to get it on the ground and needs to get it there. I don't want to see her trying to fight standing.

Montana De La Rosa decision -111 for $30

i got money on R3+, decided by decision, Rosa by Dec and ~$2500 on Rosa win

idk about betting so much pre...probably -ev

I should have learned from Spence vs Dumont to wait...

if we can just get this result for 2 or 3 rounds...at the very lesat but a finish would be nice

was tempted to bet hard at the end of rd one to try to get the line as cheap as possible for maybe a couple hundred more...but....a little reluctant

ah..I'll drop $835 more to win $100..nm bet wont go thru

got 2.5k more to go thru...

Still worried about a Boser finish

we need a crowd cheering FINSIH..FINISH...FINISH

R3 would have been a good pay day but I'll take that

oh damn Buck/Nets tonight! I might bet the Over and that's about it. I dont even know the Bucks that well, haven't watched them all year.

I am so bad about judging O/U though during the game but I thikn that is mainly bc at MyBookie they limit your line options and set it to where it is almost impossible to get to....idk

On June 05 2021 23:09 PuertoRican wrote: Montana De La Rosa decision -111 for $30

Sigh... Another small loss.

Great for my DraftKings teams, but annoying for my bankroll that Montana got the finish instead of a decision.

awwww... De La Rosa is pretty awesome

Todo vs Rodigue...
interesting pick 'em I'll probably just bet for a late fight...depending on if they "bring violence" vs feel each other out on the feet

ofc I have to decide pre so I'll probaly just wait. Leaning Rodriguez

pretty clear 10-9,10-9 no? He seems to be slowing down a lot but Dusko is slowing too and not taking advantage of it. I feel like pwrwise neither is too much of a threat by now although if Rod gasses too much Dusko can just stand and pour it on


just dropped another $1k on Rod annnd ofcourse they double the price on me after I submit it. that really should be illegal, it's just wrong.

I mean I'm already putting up $1000 to win $100 what the hell

phew hate to leave on of these in the judges hands...trying to chip away at $100 bills but putting a lot on the line. I think Rod was the clear winner but....we will see.. i think 30-27 or 29-28

I mean there is no way Dusko won

I'm thinking Baeza...ITD but O1.5.

Clear win for Rodrigues as a +130 underdog. I wanted to put more on him, but I was worried about his chin.

He was a brawler 1-2 fights ago, now he's a technical striker with good BJJ.

Betting Baeza and just sprinkling by R1 or R2..via KO

Parlayed Baeza win with Tybura win in either R1 or R2...R2-3 might be better range but that's not available.

$1200 on Baeza at -480

1250 more at -1400 nm..denied lol

come on...Baeza


I think he's going to need to just try to point Ponzi up and not try to knock him out..just get the round and not waste energy

Not looking good

yeah i think Ponzinin did enough there Good come back.

WOW! WHAT A FIGHT!!!

Santiago Ponzinibbio 2-1. He beat Caramel Thunder's ass in Rounds 2 and 3.

that one hurt

added $500 to Tybura Money line...I want to go more but...scared of big Walt

Leaning to Dolidze...probably GTD. For now betting GTD..and Rd3+ win for each.

It's ironic that referee Keith Peterson's nickname is "No Nonsense."

It's a little risky but just to experiment bc I feel pretty sure about Tybura winning (in most scenarios)

if we parlay Tybura/Rozen we get +140. $50 on that returns $140 or +$90
if we parlay Tybura/Sakai we get +206 $50 on that returns $153 or +$103 so either

A) Tybura loses and we lose $100 and gain $0
B) Tybura wins and Rozen wins. We lose $50 and win $140 for $90 profit
C) Tybura wins and Sakai wins. We lose $50 and win $153 for a $103 profit.

Risk of A) happening but if we are pretty sure of A winning then we can bet either fighter in B vs C and win money either way. The more we wager the more we are guaranteed.


Maybe it will be profittable to Parlay all possible outcomes of the 2 fights and still be GTD if they are all PLUS money


Harris/Rozn = +358 $50 returns $228
Harris/Sakai = +400, $50 returns $250


We wager more money overall so if the lower +monies hit we might be closer to breaking even but if the less likely scenarios hold up then we stand to win a lot more

This way we lose $150 either way...so we can 1) lose $60, 2)lose $47 3)win $75 and 4) win $100


could play around with wagering more on the more likely scenarios. We would win more win they cashed and win less when they didn't but could probably guarantee low losses and high payout chances

On June 06 2021 01:04 PuertoRican wrote: It's ironic that referee Keith Peterson's nickname is "No Nonsense."

True

Well..I think Walt is done lol

was trying to add more to the Tybura/Rozn and Tybura/Sakai parlay options...couldnlt ever get it in

I'm leaning toward Rozen in this last one..I think he finds the shot. I am guessing later finish.....Rds3+ but most likely "Rd 5 or decision"

Marcin Tybura with the easy win after defending against the Walt Harris flurry that he does in every fight.

One more win to go, and this will be a decent day for me.

needed that one
Tybura ML +$296.80

Tybura by KO +$156

Tybura in R1-2 +$56.25

Fight won in R1-2 +$36.40

Fight won in R1 +$37.60
U1.5 +$45


Lost
Tybura by Sub -$10
Harris win in R1-2 -$10
Rd3+ $10
Win in R2 -$20

$627.85-$50= +$577.85

Got a prop on Rozn by KO $25 to pay $58.75
RD5+ $50 to pay $125
accidental bet on Rd3 win $20 to pay $150, might as well keep it going.
ML $25 on Rozen to pay $45.75

probably have more on the fight at the bottom of my bet list....

+$25 Live on Rozn

well...R1 lol almost anti-climatic

Early stoppage, but it is what it is.

I didn't realize it but apparently a $3335 bet made it thru on the Boser fight :/ (he was at -3335!!)
I swear when I tried to put it in it kept denying it until it was no longer available but it is what it is.

I would be up had it not been for that..i think I lost almost $4k on that fight. I want to say lesson learned but I mean...he had that fight and he should have had it and really he should have won how it played out but he really should have done better than that and would a higher percent of the time, I think. I made the bet in a good spot with not much time left. But that is probably too much to bet at one time really. It looked like a really good value spot but that is too risky for what little you win from it. Good night otherwise and I'm not worried about it. I think I can get that back pretty easily.


Then of course we have the Jones fight that got pushed. I would have won a lot from that. Good night and I feel a lot more confident about betting UFC fights.
.Really look into what I was talking about with parlaying all results or more realistically the likely results of two fights and having a guaranteed profit. I wil probably try to do that with multiple fights on the next card...just picking 2 fights and parlaying the different possibilities. You almost always get a +money line and I don't think it would be necessary to bet on all 4 possible outcomes but even if you do I think the bets could be adjusted based on which ones were more likely so that a profit is GUARANTEED.


DK -$2800 MyBookie +~$400

Daaaaammm You didn't even bet on De La Rosa? Oh I see it now

Any parlays?

On June 06 2021 02:02 warrendeape wrote: Any parlays?

No parlays.

As you can see with my bet list, I only felt confident in 2 bets. Most of my bets were $5-$30 since I wasn't confident on much this weekend.

As for the real life example on another note:

We have two fights

Walt Harris v Tybura and Rozen/Sakai

Possible outcomes

A) Tybura wins / Rozen Wins (+140)
B) Tybura wins / Sakai Wins (+206)
C) Harris wins / Rozen Wins (+358)
D) Harris wins / Sakai Wins (+400)

The +358 and +400 might be worth a sprinkle. I think one could sprinkle them and come out on top no matter what happens. Idk yet, but I was only interested in the +140 and +206 lines. Let's say we bet $20 on both A) and B) to cover whover wins Rzn/Sakai


1)Tybura loses we lose $40 (we were going to bet on Tybura anyway)***
2)Tybura wins / Rozen wins we win $28 at +140 and lose $20 on 3). $8 profit.
3) Tybura wins / Sakai wins we win $41.20 at +206 and lose $20 on 2). $21.20 profit.

So if we are going to bet on Tybura ML anyway, if we parlay it with EITHER possible winner of Rozn/Sakai then we are GUARANTEED to win either $8 more or $21.20 depending on who wins, given that Tybura does win.


change the amount to $40 - we win either $16 or $42.40 more
change it to $100 - we win either $40 or $106 more, guaranteed.
change it to $200 - we win $80 or $212, guaranteed
etc.

Obviously it does hurt more when we lose our original ML pick since we lose both parlays but if we get better at picking the winner then we lose less. Also, I want to play with the math and see how close we can get to guaranteeing a profitt either way or at least limiting losses even if it means guaranteeing less when we do hit.


***You can always create the parlay in the example above while Tybura is fighting. Although it will lower your parlay +moneyLine, (and to what extent depending on how certain it is that Tybura is going to win) it is a good way to avoid situation 1) above and to guarantee a bet that profits you no matter who wins the fight you parlay (as long as the parlay money lines are still +money and they almost always certainly are though some times they will be below +100)

On June 06 2021 02:06 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 06 2021 02:02 warrendeape wrote: Any parlays? No parlays. As you can see with my bet list, I only felt confident in 2 bets. Most of my bets were $5-$30 since I wasn't confident on much this weekend.

I see. That makes sense. Could play around with HUGE favorites just to try to get a better line but yes it all comes down to confidence in your pics, sure.