UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler

Date: Saturday, May 15
Main Card (ESPN+): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Live Streams: http://ripple.stream/mmastreams




Main Card (ESPN+)

Charles Oliveira (30-8) vs. Michael Chandler (22-5) (Vacant Lightweight Championship)
Tony Ferguson (25-5) vs. Beneil Dariush (20-4-1) (Lightweight)
Katlyn Chookagian (15-4) vs. Viviane Araujo (10-2) (Women's Flyweight)
Shane Burgos (13-2) vs. Edson Barboza (21-9) (Featherweight)
Matt Schnell (15-5) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (16-3) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN/ESPN+)

Ronaldo Souza (26-9) vs. Andre Muniz (20-4) (Middleweight)
Lando Vannata (11-5-2) vs. Mike Grundy (12-2) (Featherweight)
Andrea Lee (11-5) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (9-2) (Women's Flyweight)
Jordan Wright (11-1) vs. Jamie Pickett (11-5) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Gina Mazany (7-4) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (9-3) (Women's Flyweight)
Kevin Aguilar (17-4) vs. Tucker Lutz (11-1) (Featherweight)
Christos Giagos (18-8) vs. Sean Soriano (14-6) (Lightweight)

Other

- Alex Perez and Matt Schnell were scheduled for this event. However, Perez was forced to pull out due to undisclosed reasons. He was replaced by Rogerio Bontorin on April 21 and the bout will take place at bantamweight instead of flyweight.
- Joel Alvarez was scheduled to face Christos Giagos in a lightweight bout. However, Alvarez was removed from the bout in early May due to alleged visa issues that restricted his travel. Sean Soriano replaced Alvarez on May 6.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Oliveira > Chandler
• Ferguson > Dariush
• Chookagian > Araujo
• Burgos > Barboza
• Schnell > Bontorin
• Muniz > Souza
• Grundy > Vannata
• Shevchenko > Lee
• Pickett > Wright
• Mazany > Cachoeira
• Aguilar vs. Lutz (dunno)
• Soriano > Giagos

No Poirier or Gaethje for Lightweight title what?

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On May 12 2021 09:07 Spitfiree wrote: No Poirier or Gaethje for Lightweight title what?

It makes more financial sense to have Oliveira vs. Chandler as the headliner of a PPV for the vacant title, then have Conor vs. Dustin headline their own PPV, then have Oliveira/Chandler vs. Conor/Dustin headline a PPV at the end of this year.

Perfect way to build excitement, which generates more profit.

Edit: Dustin turned down the title shot against Oliveira and Chandler. He said he wanted to fight Conor first.

That makes sense, Poirier just getting more cash that way while still getting the title

I feel like a lot of the fights on this card are a coinflip which makes for an exciting fight but not so much of an easy bet. I'm not sure which fights I'll be betting on yet. I'm still trying to figure out what is a good value bet for me.

Oliveira vs Chandler
-Obvious possible quick KO by Chandler.
He will be bring pressure hard and fast and will keep pressuring throughout the fight. Good wrestling background, not extraordinarily so. I think more likely than the KO will be a Chandler takedown with some ground-and-pound while staying in the guard with good defense against any BJJ. As he said in a recent interview with Helwani, "Short limbs, short arms, short neck." He's hard to submit (although he did give up his back rather easily against Primus). He does a good job of pressing down on an opponent while in guard while keeping good defense. Chandler is a bit of a freak athlete (often accused of using PEDs) and has a dangerously high level of confidence.
One thing that impresses me about Chandler is that he acknowledges how good Oliveira is and how much of a challenge it will be, while, from what I've seen so far, Oliveira seems to dismiss Chandler without taking the threat serious. That concerns me for Oliveira.

-On the other hand, I have bought into Joe Rogan's signature hyperbolic hype of Oliveira. He has had his own ups and downs as has Chandler, but I do believe he has turned a corner in putting together a well-polished, complete game - good striking, terrific ground game. I'm not sure if he will be able to submit Chandler but in the end I believe he is more prepared for being a UFC lightweight champion.
I've been impressed in his last few fights and will be looking up some more of them.
I think Oliveira advantage 60-40


Ferguson vs Dariush
-I'm a big fan of Ferguson and would like to see him win. He is one of the most dangerous fighters ever when he is on his A-game, but as we know, he hasn't been on it for a while. As many people like to say, "it depends on which Ferguson shows up." It also depends on if Dariush decides to engage with him in a wild, crazy slugfest as Dariush is prone to do If so, Ferguson has better chances. From my understanding, Ferguson doesn't train BJJ and doesn't really have much of a defense against a good ground game: advantage Dariush.
Probably a good bet for a decision and a latter round fight.
Dariush 60-40

Burgos vs Barboza
Another tough one. Burgos' forward pressure can be a problem for Barboza who is arguably a better striker but who depends more on kicks and distance-striking. I will need to watch some more fights because I've probably been too influenced by Barboza highlight reels, but for now I like him better overall as a striker. Burgos absorbs too much damage as he walks down opponents - doesn't have great defense.
Barboza 55-45

Muniz vs Souza
Not really a big fan of either. I think Souza is a better fighter in every category but gives up a lot in age. Maybe his better fights are behind him, maybe not.
Souza 60-40 (Draftkings moneyline Muniz -108, Souza -115. I'm thinking value bet given even odds)

Pickett vs Wright
As with the remainder of the card, I don't really know much about these two fighters but based on analysis from others, I'm persuaded that Pickett is a very good matchup against Wright - on paper. May go with a small bet on him here.
(Draft kings moneyline Wright -106 / Pickett -118)

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On May 13 2021 12:51 warrendeape wrote: I feel like a lot of the fights on this card are a coinflip which makes for an exciting fight but not so much of an easy bet. I'm not sure which fights I'll be betting on yet. I'm still trying to figure out what is a good value bet for me. Oliveira vs Chandler -Obvious possible quick KO by Chandler. He will be bring pressure hard and fast and will keep pressuring throughout the fight. Good wrestling background, not extraordinarily so. I think more likely than the KO will be a Chandler takedown with some ground-and-pound while staying in the guard with good defense against any BJJ. As he said in a recent interview with Helwani, "Short limbs, short arms, short neck." He's hard to submit (although he did give up his back rather easily against Primus). He does a good job of pressing down on an opponent while in guard while keeping good defense. Chandler is a bit of a freak athlete (often accused of using PEDs) and has a dangerously high level of confidence. One thing that impresses me about Chandler is that he acknowledges how good Oliveira is and how much of a challenge it will be, while, from what I've seen so far, Oliveira seems to dismiss Chandler without taking the threat serious. That concerns me for Oliveira. -On the other hand, I have bought into Joe Rogan's signature hyperbolic hype of Oliveira. He has had his own ups and downs as has Chandler, but I do believe he has turned a corner in putting together a well-polished, complete game - good striking, terrific ground game. I'm not sure if he will be able to submit Chandler but in the end I believe he is more prepared for being a UFC lightweight champion. I've been impressed in his last few fights and will be looking up some more of them. I think Oliveira advantage 60-40 Ferguson vs Dariush -I'm a big fan of Ferguson and would like to see him win. He is one of the most dangerous fighters ever when he is on his A-game, but as we know, he hasn't been on it for a while. As many people like to say, "it depends on which Ferguson shows up." It also depends on if Dariush decides to engage with him in a wild, crazy slugfest as Dariush is prone to do If so, Ferguson has better chances. From my understanding, Ferguson doesn't train BJJ and doesn't really have much of a defense against a good ground game: advantage Dariush. Probably a good bet for a decision and a latter round fight. Dariush 60-40 Burgos vs Barboza Another tough one. Burgos' forward pressure can be a problem for Barboza who is arguably a better striker but who depends more on kicks and distance-striking. I will need to watch some more fights because I've probably been too influenced by Barboza highlight reels, but for now I like him better overall as a striker. Burgos absorbs too much damage as he walks down opponents - doesn't have great defense. Barboza 55-45 Muniz vs Souza Not really a big fan of either. I think Souza is a better fighter in every category but gives up a lot in age. Maybe his better fights are behind him, maybe not. Souza 60-40 (Draftkings moneyline Muniz -108, Souza -115. I'm thinking value bet given even odds) Pickett vs Wright As with the remainder of the card, I don't really know much about these two fighters but based on analysis from others, I'm persuaded that Pickett is a very good matchup against Wright - on paper. May go with a small bet on him here. (Draft kings moneyline Wright -106 / Pickett -118)

I don't have any big bets on this card, but my two biggest bets are Grundy and Pickett.

For now i put $75 on Dariush. I'm more confident in him than Souza, but will likely bet Souza too. It's kind of contradictory betting against Ferg and for Souza but i like his chances against Muniz.

Charles Oliveira (155) vs. Michael Chandler (155)
Tony Ferguson (156) vs. Beneil Dariush (156)
Katlyn Chookagian (126) vs. Viviane Araujo (126)
Shane Burgos (146) vs. Edson Barboza (146)
Matt Schnell (136) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (137)*
Ronaldo Souza (186) vs. Andre Muniz (186)
Lando Vannata (146) vs. Mike Grundy (146)
Andrea Lee (126) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (125)
Jordan Wright (185) vs. Jamie Pickett (186)
Gina Mazany (126) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (126)
Kevin Aguilar (145) vs. Tucker Lutz (146)
Christos Giagos (156) vs. Sean Soriano (156)


* Rogerio Bontorin missed weight by 1 lb. He has been fined 20 percent of his purse.

Chandler, Araujo, Barboza and Schnell.

My bets thus far:

• Katlyn Chookagian -137 $68.50 for $50
• Andre Muniz +111 $50 for $55.50
• Mike Grundy -115 $172.50 for $150
• Jamie Pickett -105 $105 for $100

I got a little carried away with bets and props...went small moneyline on Giagos and another Giagos by Decision. Like $20 for each
+$9.40
-15.00 lol

Nice win for Giagos. He had me scared for a minute.

On this one i have $40 on Lutz, $20 Lutz by decision. I think that is all...i have trouble actually finding and reading my bets on DK

On May 15 2021 22:39 warrendeape wrote: I got a little carried away with bets and props...went small moneyline on Giagos and another Giagos by Decision. Like $20 for each +$9.40 -15.00 lol

Soriano is now 14-7, and has 5 losses by submission.

I had Giagos to win by submission, but my sportsbook recently updated and didn't have the props up in time. His submission line was +575 when I wanted to bet it.

On May 15 2021 22:59 PuertoRican wrote: Nice win for Giagos. He had me scared for a minute.

Yeah i got a bit worried was going he would back away at the end of rnd 1. He managed to get a good TD then though.

On May 15 2021 23:00 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 15 2021 22:39 warrendeape wrote: I got a little carried away with bets and props...went small moneyline on Giagos and another Giagos by Decision. Like $20 for each +$9.40 -15.00 lol Soriano is now 14-7, and has 5 losses by submission. I had Giagos to win by submission, but my sportsbook recently updated and didn't have the props up in time. His submission line was +575 when I wanted to bet it.

Sonuva!
I live in a state where i am not allowed to bet so i have to drive to another State. Makes it kind of awkward - keeping up with things and placing bets

I was trying to put in a parlay on Lutz win Grundy win, i guess R2 is too late.

I did parlay Pickett/Grundy for $20 at like +260

(Still worried about Lutz cardio)

+$32 Lutz win
+35 Lutz decn

Lutz's striking looks improved. I assumed he'd have better wrestling, but worse striking.

He's better in every area.

On May 15 2021 23:16 PuertoRican wrote: Lutz's striking looks improved. I assumed he'd have better wrestling, but worse striking. He's better in every area.

True. Aguilar was mounting a comeback too
Betting the win and the win by decision I'm cheering for Lutz but don't want him to do toooo well, lol

$10 on Cach by KO at +650
$10 U2.5 +181
Just for value
(I'm not getting any option to Live bet). Is that only on certain fights or certain sportsbooks?)

+$65
+$18

Thats some HEAAAVy breathing by Maz! After R1

Fading Gina Mazany continues to be a winning formula.

I like Oliveira but I worry that he is just too weak for Chandler.

$20 on Schev. @ -122
I dont know hour on earth she survived that for almost 2 minutes.

-$20

Nice win by Lee. She's lucky it didn't go to Round 3.

On May 16 2021 00:26 PuertoRican wrote: Nice win by Lee. She's lucky it didn't go to Round 3.

She looked good. I felt like Rd 3 was going to be more of 1 and 2.

(Schev almost pulled a Ferguson and survived that leg triangle)

Although i hear Pickett is not very reliable i got a few bets on him here, including a parlay.


RUN IT TWICE!!!!!!

-$10 Pickett by dec
-$40 Pickett
-$10 Pickett bt KO
-$10 either to win by dec
(Not sure why i places so many bets on this. Wasn't feeling good about Wright)
-$20 on the parlay

-$90

Well damn...

Pickett ate those elbows early and never recovered.

Can't say much about that loss.

$20 TGD @ -109
$40 Grundy @-113
$25 Rd 3 or later -210
$20 over 2.5 @ -182


-$40
+$12
+$11
+$18.30

It's a PPV card, and I usually get raped on UFC PPV cards.

I'm not going to bet much at all until June 12, when I go to Vegas for the Adesanya vs. Vettori fight card. My biggest bet will be on the card the following week, which is Dan Ige vs. Korean Zombie.

Thought i had more bets on Souza but I'm confused by the matchup. May see what value we can get on a KO either way.
For now $40 on Souza. Thought i was more confident than that

Added $10 for a Souza KO at +500
Submission from either is probably good value (+400 Souza +700 Muniz)

On May 16 2021 01:33 PuertoRican wrote: It's a PPV card, and I usually get raped on UFC PPV cards. I'm not going to bet much at all until June 12, when I go to Vegas for the Adesanya vs. Vettori fight card. My biggest bet will be on the card the following week, which is Dan Ige vs. Korean Zombie.

I think I'll bet pretty hard on Adesanya. Right now though he is like -500 money line no?

+700 odds right theremist have been a thumb lock lol

-40
-10

That puts me at -14.70 atm

I heard Jacare's arm break when they were rolling around.

Sick way to end your UFC career and likely your MMA career for Jacare.

Last 5 fights = 4 underdogs won, and the other 1 fight was won by a guy at even odds.

Despite my initial impression... I'm going
$20 Burgos @-157
And a parlay on Burgos/Dariush $20 @+250
Think I'll add an over on Burgos

On May 16 2021 01:48 PuertoRican wrote: Last 5 fights = 4 underdogs won, and the other 1 fight was won by a guy at even odds.

At first I thought that was bad but you can get a good price on a dog or even on a favorite that way so you don't HAVE to be right 5 out of 6 times

Nasty arm break.

Ferguson by submission is +1000
If he hurts Dariush he will probably jump on a choke.

-$40 nice fight

A parlay = bad luck

Last 6 fights = 5 underdogs won, and 1 guy who was at even odds won.

$10 @ +175
$10 @ +195
$20 @ +195

Araujo
Araujo by dec
Araujo rd 3+

Chookahian $20 @+150
(Will probably be a damn draw)

-$40
+30

Last 7 fights = 5 underdogs won, and 1 guy who was at even odds won. 1 girl who should've lost, but got the nod.

I'm about to go all in, I'm due one lol

$25 on Schnell
Looking at props

Not big on betting versus the grappler but...Bontorin missing weight and all...
Tried to get in afast bet on Schnell by KO +400 but it closed as i was placing it

$10 on Bontorin @+143. Tried at +180 didn't get it in

$75 more Bontorin. Tried to grt it on +113 but it changed to like -162
Almost got another big bet in on Bontorin but it closed up

(Really good spot in the future to get in good money)

Bontorin +$46.50, $14.30
Schnell -$25


So. +$35.80. I was about to bet at least $100 in the third when it closed

I have Rogerio Bontorin 2-1.

Last 8 fights = 6 underdogs won, 1 guy who was at even odds won, and 1 girl who should've lost but got the nod.

On May 16 2021 03:38 PuertoRican wrote: I have Rogerio Bontorin 2-1.

Yeah me too. There was a moment in the 3rd before he got the TD were you could still place a bet on him. I think it was like -160ish. Still +as the 2nd R was ending.

Should we throw together another parlay or 2!?!

(I got $10 on Tony by submission lol side note. May go more if he starts stringing together punches. Ofc it won't be +1000 then)

Here for now i have
Dar by dec $10 +138
Dar win $75 -165
GTd. $20 @-152
O2.5 $10 @ -190

Will say Ferg is a helll of a live dog
$10 Ferg by sub @+1000

Beneil Dariush just turned 32-years-old a week ago, yet he looks 45.

On May 16 2021 03:51 PuertoRican wrote: Beneil Dariush just turned 32-years-old a week ago, yet he looks 45.

How old would you say Ferg looks?

Should prob def go with the dog in this fight
I just believe Tony is done

Ferg usually loses 1st Rf

I tried to bet more on Dariush..again as he for a takedown it suspended the bet :/

Line had to change +220 now on Fer

Dariush fell to -600 Ialmost got $100 more in at -130. I put $25 on Fergesom at +330


End of rd 2 Dar -3300 Ferg +800

Was tempted to put $3000 on Dar to win $60. Figured that's not a good idea



-$25
+$13.8
-$10
+$46.75

So...+$25.55

I bet Dariush by decision after Round 1 at -134.

I wanted to add more, but my book stopped working... weird.

On May 16 2021 04:14 PuertoRican wrote: I bet Dariush by decision after Round 1 at -134. I wanted to add more, but my book stopped working... weird.

That sucks. Mine always changes as my bet is "processing". I think of you click submit, you should get the line you submitted on!!

On May 16 2021 04:22 warrendeape wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2021 04:14 PuertoRican wrote: I bet Dariush by decision after Round 1 at -134. I wanted to add more, but my book stopped working... weird. That sucks. Mine always changes as my bet is "processing". I think of you click submit, you should get the line you submitted on!!

I was able to add 1 live bet, but then the website shut me out before Round 2 ended and I couldn't add anymore because I kept getting a password error. I miss the old look of BetAnySports.

Here is what i havae so far (definitely preferring live betting)
I think Chandler kind of fades but i didn't really do due dilligenxe on Oliveira...

Anyway

Chandler win $25 @+165 (Draftkings 50% boost)
Chandler KO $15 +180
Chandler by decision $10@+650
Chandler R1. $15 @+400


Oliveira win $15 @-134

O2.5 $15@+150

In the end Oliveira may just totally outclass Chandler but i think Chandler is definitely a live dog

-$80
+$11.25.....so -68.75
Happy with those bets

Watch this pressure

Chandler is used to just being able to turn into opponents here

Id like to see Chandlers top pressure on the ground

Should have had the KO there

Annnd doesnt take damage well
I so almost put a bet on Oliveira KO lol

Thank you, Mr. Oliveira~

On May 16 2021 04:44 PuertoRican wrote: Thank you, Mr. Oliveira~

I was down overall but fun night and Ilearned a lot. I should have got more out of the Botorin and Dariush fights.

Not much of a chance to live the last one

On May 16 2021 04:48 warrendeape wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2021 04:44 PuertoRican wrote: Thank you, Mr. Oliveira~ I was down overall but fun night and Ilearned a lot. I should have got more out of the Botorin and Dariush fights. Not much of a chance to live the last one

In Round 1, after they stood up. The line opened at -200, then I got him at -228.

Maybe 10 seconds later, Chandler landed bombs on him. Oliveira was +177 heading into Round 2.

You can live bet in the middle of a round when they are standing up, on BetAnySports.

On May 16 2021 04:51 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 16 2021 04:48 warrendeape wrote:   On May 16 2021 04:44 PuertoRican wrote: Thank you, Mr. Oliveira~ I was down overall but fun night and Ilearned a lot. I should have got more out of the Botorin and Dariush fights. Not much of a chance to live the last one In Round 1, after they stood up. The line opened at -200, then I got him at -228. Maybe 10 seconds later, Chandler landed bombs on him. Oliveira was +177 heading into Round 2. You can live bet in the middle of a round when they are standing up, on BetAnySports.

I won $487.15 and lost $465 (not counting a $2 charge to cancel double betting Souza for $40. Definitely wasn't THAT confident in him. So ended up about $22.15.

Yeah i did quite a bit of live betting. I was too glued too the screen and typing on here (def -ev on that last move). But my bets wouldn't have changed at that point in the match. I was still confident in my bets but in the last fights there was plenty of time to see what was going on, check the lines, reassess, etc). I was still too late and didn't pull the trigger on Bontorin or Dariush until too late. Half the time with Bontorin, I'd be typing in my wager and sumbitting it and the line would drastically change. I still hesitated but hindsight is 20/20. Was betting a bit scared/safe. Dariush was pretty sure matchup and we had a good price on him.

Hey guys,

It’s been awhile. Hope all is well.

What a main event!! Won money on barboza and dobronx!

Also I logged back in on here cuz a few years ago, had a back and forth with some weirdo about Ferguson beating Khabib. Pretty sure his main argument was “Tony’s elbows” haha. Idiot.

Rant over

On May 16 2021 05:38 jvilla777 wrote: Hey guys, It’s been awhile. Hope all is well. What a main event!! Won money on barboza and dobronx! Also I logged back in on here cuz a few years ago, had a back and forth with some weirdo about Ferguson beating Khabib. Pretty sure his main argument was “Tony’s elbows” haha. Idiot. Rant over

You were probably actually arguing with Tony himself

i hate that guy translating charles

On May 16 2021 07:25 Raidern wrote: i hate that guy translating charles

Yeah... definitely felt like a lot was lost in translation

Fwiw.....I was just rewatching the Dariush/Ferg match...Looks to me like Dariush took it easy on him in the 3rd. Really for most of the match. I think he minimized damage.

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