New hustle - Page 2

99.5% of sportsbettors are losers. I would go ahead and tell everyone to not bother for the most part.

seems like everybody who plays poker falls into this trap at least once in life
I am one of those

There's a large difference between someone who has won at sportsbetting and someone who is a winning sportsbettor.

I'm up a little lifetime (10k < x < 100k) from sportsbetting because I look at it like a no ante poker game -- I can wait for spots I think are aces and play only those because I don't do it full time at volume. And I often have good info because I'm one of the best DFS players in the world.

I absolutely could not beat NBA spreads/totals or NFL spreads/totals making 5 bets a game in NBA or 5 bets a week in NFL. And there are very very few people in the world who can.

When people (you) talk about DFS, is that considered part of sportsbetting? Or is it considering it's own thing?

CSGO is pretty damn soft

Yeah I know handicappers

On September 21 2020 01:06 Daut wrote: 99.5% of sportsbettors are losers. I would go ahead and tell everyone to not bother for the most part.

This is true

On September 21 2020 12:59 PoorUser wrote: When people (you) talk about DFS, is that considered part of sportsbetting? Or is it considering it's own thing?

It's not sportsbetting. Sportsbetting youre betting against the house with vig, and need to win 52.5% against very difficult lines to break even. DFS is like poker, you just need to beat the rake against other players you may be much better than.

On September 21 2020 05:03 Daut wrote: There's a large difference between someone who has won at sportsbetting and someone who is a winning sportsbettor. I'm up a little lifetime (10k < x < 100k) from sportsbetting because I look at it like a no ante poker game -- I can wait for spots I think are aces and play only those because I don't do it full time at volume. And I often have good info because I'm one of the best DFS players in the world. I absolutely could not beat NBA spreads/totals or NFL spreads/totals making 5 bets a game in NBA or 5 bets a week in NFL. And there are very very few people in the world who can.

Just curious is someone like Empiremaker2 or Jmo just really rich and like gambling or are they actually good at sportsbetting lol.

On September 21 2020 17:19 hiems wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2020 05:03 Daut wrote: There's a large difference between someone who has won at sportsbetting and someone who is a winning sportsbettor. I'm up a little lifetime (10k < x < 100k) from sportsbetting because I look at it like a no ante poker game -- I can wait for spots I think are aces and play only those because I don't do it full time at volume. And I often have good info because I'm one of the best DFS players in the world. I absolutely could not beat NBA spreads/totals or NFL spreads/totals making 5 bets a game in NBA or 5 bets a week in NFL. And there are very very few people in the world who can. Just curious is someone like Empiremaker2 or Jmo just really rich and like gambling or are they actually good at sportsbetting lol.

Mostly gambling betting vig free vs other rich guys. But occasionally everyone gets some inside info on the sharp side of something so highly likely both are winning long term betting vig free in about half their volume. But I think if they bet everything on a sportsbook they would both lose long term.

On September 21 2020 15:16 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On September 21 2020 12:59 PoorUser wrote: When people (you) talk about DFS, is that considered part of sportsbetting? Or is it considering it's own thing? It's not sportsbetting. Sportsbetting youre betting against the house with vig, and need to win 52.5% against very difficult lines to break even. DFS is like poker, you just need to beat the rake against other players you may be much better than.

Ok thanks. I was familiar with DFS being similar to poker but less so on the specific definition of sportsbetting having to be vs the house (random vig-free sidebets aside).

lol i llost a ton sportsbetting this year and john goes pro, figures ;P

On September 21 2020 05:03 Daut wrote: There's a large difference between someone who has won at sportsbetting and someone who is a winning sportsbettor. I'm up a little lifetime (10k < x < 100k) from sportsbetting because I look at it like a no ante poker game -- I can wait for spots I think are aces and play only those because I don't do it full time at volume. And I often have good info because I'm one of the best DFS players in the world. I absolutely could not beat NBA spreads/totals or NFL spreads/totals making 5 bets a game in NBA or 5 bets a week in NFL. And there are very very few people in the world who can.

yep, sounds like my sportsbetting experience. surely have an 11-1 weekend to finish 25-25 lol

Daut so you're basically arguing that sportsbook are excellent at setting lines? I always found that to be a very dubious idea. I spent most of my corporate time doing data science / predictive modeling and most companies are stunningly incompetent at it to the extreme even when big money is at stake. Why would sportsbooks be any good at it?

If we got to see what logic/algorithm their model is actually running I promise you we'd be finding atrocious mistakes / broken assumptions / wrongly collected data etc. They just make money anyway because most bettors aren't even thinking about their bets and they get to mass rake them on top of that

I also read somewhere that the old system was just to adjust your line constantly and essentially let the players decide what the line is so that you always come out ahead by rake in the end, is that what they do? Because that seems like it would also lead to some very wrong lines

I always thought the main reason that sports betting is hard must just be that the rake is high

I never bet sports but sometimes I just google "what are the odds on x" and the lines seem absolutely preposterous to me to the point where I scold myself for not making an account

When the fight was first announced, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook had Mayweather as a -2500 favorite and McGregor as a +1100 underdog. According to the latest odds, Mayweather is close to even money at -400 with McGregor at +300, according to Oddshark.

[Above] this just looks like McGregor was popular and a lot of fans wanted him to win so it 'moved the line' to something preposterous. I remember people talking about the road to victory for McGregor before that fight and not understanding if they were joking


and yeah your line about sportsbetting being poker with no ante is beautiful and exactly on the money. It's warren buffet's line about stocks being baseball with no strikes counted against you

I guess what I'm saying is, I think you may be a highly successful gambler who never had an office job (?) and if so you rate to massively overestimate how serious/skilled/motivated software engineers / predictive analysts are

On September 23 2020 15:50 Ryan Neilly wrote: lol i llost a ton sportsbetting this year and john goes pro, figures ;P

I ain’t a pro lol I just look at stats n other metrics to make a calc guess and also my luckboxing helps