UFC on FOX 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena

Date: Saturday, January 28th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 22:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (FOX)

Valentina Shevchenko (13-2) vs. Julianna Pena (8-2) (Women's Bantamweight)
Donald Cerrone (32-7) vs. Jorge Masvidal (31-11) (Welterweight)
Andrei Arlovski (25-13) vs. Francis Ngannou (9-1) (Heavyweight)
Alex Caceres (12-9) vs. Jason Knight (15-2) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Nate Marquardt (35-16-2) vs. Sam Alvey (29-8) (Middleweight)
Raphael Assuncao (23-5) vs. Aljamain Sterling (12-1) (Bantamweight)
Li Jingliang (11-4) vs. Bobby Nash (8-1) (Welterweight)
Luis Henrique da Silva (12-1) vs. Jordan Johnson (6-0) (Light Heavyweight)
Alessio Di Chirico (10-1) vs. Eric Spicely (9-1) (Middleweight)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-4-1) vs. Jeremy Kimball (14-5) (Light Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Alexandre Pantoja (16-2) vs. Eric Shelton (10-2) (Flyweight)
Jason Gonzalez (10-3) vs. J.C. Cottrell (17-4) (Lightweight)

Other

- Yancy Medeiros was expected to face Li Jingliang at the event. However in early January, Medeiros pulled out for undisclosed reasons and was replaced by promotional newcomer Bobby Nash.
- John Phillips pulled out of his light heavyweight bout against Marcos Rogerio de Lima and was replaced by fellow newcomer Jeremy Kimball on January 20.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Pena > Shevchenko
• Cerrone vs. Masvidal (dunno)
• Ngannou > Arlovski
• Knight > Caceres
• Marquardt > Alvey
• Assuncao > Sterling
• Li vs. Nash
• Silva vs. Johnson (dunno)
• Chirico vs. Spicely (dunno)
• Lima vs. Phillips (dunno)
• Pantoja vs. Shelton (dunno)
• Gonzalez vs. Cottrell (dunno)

Two tough cards to predict back-to-back.

Like Marquardt, Masvidal, Arlovski and Sheva for betting.

damn this was disappointing... I was hoping to see Andriy Shevchenko vs Iván de la Peña

Did really well last event, almost hit every bet and came up nicely. If Alex White won I would have binked 2 hail marys and netted 3k but still +$500 ish.

Only posting cuz I couldn't post for last event.

+ Show Spoiler +

For this event so far all I know so far is I like Shcevchenko and got a bet off when they were close to pickem, I like the under on Ngannu/Arlovsi and fired at that at -180 (laying -450 on Ngannu straight is dumb if you think hes just gonna end Arvolsvki in the first few exchanges, which I do), and am pretty sure Alvey and Assuncao should take home W's. I want to re-watch some tape and scout the lines before making a lot of bets.

Pena would need to physically break Schev via clinching/grappling to win because the discrepancy in striking is so great, and I don't think that is as likely as most. I've said for a long time I don't think Pena is a top tier fighter and have seen nothing to change my mind.

Edit: Oh and I like the over on Caceras vs Knight, I don't see a finish being likely at all on either side. Cacereas showed durability vs Yair and Knight is tough as shit and very good on the ground but not good enough to sub Alex unless he really puts it on him first, and I think it will be a close back and forth fight with a split decision sort of deal being extremely likely.

On January 17 2017 02:50 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: • Pena > Shevchenko • Cerrone vs. Masvidal (dunno) • Ngannou > Arlovski • Knight > Caceres • Marquardt > Alvey • Assuncao > Sterling • Li vs. Nash • Silva vs. Johnson (dunno) • Chirico vs. Spicely (dunno) • Lima vs. Phillips (dunno) • Pantoja vs. Shelton (dunno) • Gonzalez vs. Cottrell (dunno) Two tough cards to predict back-to-back.

Can you bet on Masvidal vs Cerrone being a split decision loss for Masvidal that he really probably should have won? Cuz that's what I feel happens in most of his fights.

Crazy that a non-title womens fight headlines over Cerrone vs Masvidal... who would have thought that arguably the most violent sport on TV would be the one where women finally triumph

On January 20 2017 00:52 Baalim wrote: Crazy that a non-title womens fight headlines over Cerrone vs Masvidal... who would have thought that arguably the most violent sport on TV would be the one where women finally triumph

Plot twist: the UFC got both Shevchenko and Pena on the same cycle, so they'll both be fighting on their period.

Cerrone vs. Masvidal won't come close to two bloody women who are ultra aggressive and look forward to doing nothing but eating ice cream after their fight.

On January 20 2017 01:04 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On January 20 2017 00:52 Baalim wrote: Crazy that a non-title womens fight headlines over Cerrone vs Masvidal... who would have thought that arguably the most violent sport on TV would be the one where women finally triumph Plot twist: the UFC got both Shevchenko and Pena on the same cycle, so they'll both be fighting on their period. Cerrone vs. Masvidal won't come close to two bloody women who are ultra aggressive and look forward to doing nothing but eating ice cream after their fight.

LOL ^^ wtf PR how do you get info like this..

Jordan Johnson arrived in Denver on January 10. His opponent, Frankenstein Silva, is still in Brazil.

Denver is the highest elevation in USA that the UFC goes to. It's the 2nd highest location in the world that they visit, right behind Mexico City.

This is a quick turnaround for Frankenstein. Also, Jordan has a collegiate wrestling background.

----------

UPDATE

John Phillips pulled out of his light heavyweight bout against Marcos Rogerio de Lima and was replaced by fellow newcomer Jeremy Kimball on January 20, which is essentially 7 days short notice.

Kimball is well-known on the regional scene, and he's a Colorado native, so he'll be fine with the high elevation.

Betting huge on Jorge and also on over 1.5 rounds.

According to the Anik/Florian podcast, they said Colorado is NOT adopting the new rules / scoring / etc.

I'll keep looking for confirmation as we get closer to the event.

What changes in the rules are suppose to be in 2017?

Jason Knight has a deviated septum.

This event is in Denver, which has high elevation.

On January 25 2017 08:16 jvilla777 wrote: What changes in the rules are suppose to be in 2017?

The new rules were used last weekend during a Bellator event.

Valentina Shevchenko (134.4) vs. Julianna Pena (135)
Donald Cerrone (170.8) vs. Jorge Masvidal (171)
Andrei Arlovski (246) vs. Francis Ngannou (253.6)
Alex Caceres (145) vs. Jason Knight (145.6)
Nate Marquardt (185.6) vs. Sam Alvey (185.6)
Raphael Assuncao (135.4) vs. Aljamain Sterling (135.8)
Bobby Nash (170.8) vs. Li Jingliang (170.4)
Luis Henrique da Silva (205.8) vs. Jordan Johnson (205)
Eric Spicely (185.8) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (185.6)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (209.6) vs. Jeremy Kimball (204) - Kimball agreed to a catchweight and will receive 20% of Lima’s purse
Alexandre Pantoja (126) vs. Eric Shelton (125.8)
Jason Gonzalez (156) vs. J.C. Cottrell (155.8)

Reasonably hyped for Ngannou & Arlovski. Hopefully Ngannou wins as HW needs some contenders.

Cerone vs Masvidal is a good fight. No idea why Cerrone took it though. A really tough guy that's not ranked in the top 15 and does nothing for Cerrone. Gonna look really stupid if he loses because he could have waited and gotten Lawler in a main even or co-main and made way more money & title fight with a win. Or even Maia.

Really strong card, fights in the prelims even intrigue me.

BETS

+ Show Spoiler +

My final picks:

• Pena > Shevchenko
• Masvidal > Cerrone
• Ngannou > Arlovski
• Knight > Caceres
• Marquardt > Alvey
• Assuncao > Sterling
• Li > Nash
• Silva > Johnson
• Spicely > Chirico
• Kimball > Lima
• Shelton > Pantoja
• Cottrell > Gonzalez

Even though this looks like a fun card on paper, I don't really feel confident in any of my DK teams, so I kept it small this week.

If Shevchenko doesn't get a take down and is only able to strike for 5 rounds, I don't think she'll get many fantasy points, which is why I only have 1 team with her -- I almost faded her altogether.

On January 28 2017 20:58 PuertoRican wrote: Even though this looks like a fun card on paper, I don't really feel confident in any of my DK teams, so I kept it small this week. If Shevchenko doesn't get a take down and is only able to strike for 5 rounds, I don't think she'll get many fantasy points, which is why I only have 1 team with her -- I almost faded her altogether.

I forgot to do DK this week, my bad.

Who cost more, Schev or Pena? I assume it was around even? Schev more likely to win but Pena more likely to find a finish IMO

Watched tape on Pentoja and Shleton last night.

I think Shelton looked way better on tape so I'm going with him, seems athletic as shit and impoosible to choke

Edit: At first I was impressed looking at Pentoja's record because he subbed Moreno but after seeing the fight he was getting his ass kicked before pulling it off

Meh, coulda gone either way. Atleast it went the distance for teh parlaYZ. I scored it a draw.

On January 28 2017 21:25 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On January 28 2017 20:58 PuertoRican wrote: Even though this looks like a fun card on paper, I don't really feel confident in any of my DK teams, so I kept it small this week. If Shevchenko doesn't get a take down and is only able to strike for 5 rounds, I don't think she'll get many fantasy points, which is why I only have 1 team with her -- I almost faded her altogether. I forgot to do DK this week, my bad. Who cost more, Schev or Pena? I assume it was around even? Schev more likely to win but Pena more likely to find a finish IMO

Shevchenko is $8400
Pena is $7800

Shelton would've won the fight if Colorado was using the new MMA rules.

Yay DeLima rd 1, if you ever bet DeLima and don't bet round 1, you've got issues. He's got that Vitor Belfort in him.

On January 28 2017 21:56 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On January 28 2017 21:25 soberstone wrote:   On January 28 2017 20:58 PuertoRican wrote: Even though this looks like a fun card on paper, I don't really feel confident in any of my DK teams, so I kept it small this week. If Shevchenko doesn't get a take down and is only able to strike for 5 rounds, I don't think she'll get many fantasy points, which is why I only have 1 team with her -- I almost faded her altogether. I forgot to do DK this week, my bad. Who cost more, Schev or Pena? I assume it was around even? Schev more likely to win but Pena more likely to find a finish IMO Shevchenko is $8400 Pena is $7800 Shelton would've won the fight if Colorado was using the new MMA rules.

Yah I'd obv have to see the entire list, but I think Pena's value is pretty clear there. If she is able to dominate physically, shes gonna score a shit ton. If not, she'll get picked apart and methodically soul-stripped

Kimball slipping and then getting TKO`ed brings me to 0-3 on my picks.

On January 28 2017 22:22 PuertoRican wrote: Kimball slipping and then getting TKO`ed brings me to 0-3 on my picks.

That's rough. Kimbrall just needed to survive for 2 more minutes and DeLima would automatically find a way to lose

Well that was pathetic by DiChirico. Guess I really over-rated him. I understand Spicely is slick but come on... a basic triangle instantly? bad

Jordan Johnson: "I always look for the finish"

Guy who bet on fight not going distance: "Lies."

Wild fight between Nash and Jingliang.

Jingliang potn also ended up putting more cash on Jorge and also betting schevchenko

Aljo lost that fight due to not being aggro enough.

Assuncao's striking looked bad, probably cuz he feared the TD and Aljo kept threatening with the TD.

On January 29 2017 00:30 PuertoRican wrote: Aljo lost that fight due to not being aggro enough. Assuncao's striking looked bad, probably cuz he feared the TD and Aljo kept threatening with the TD.

Seems he's just terrified of being hit. That's why he throws all those low percentage sloppy punches, he's afraid to sit on his punches and commit to something that could get him countered.

Well, that was boring.

OooooooHHHHH that killllllled me.

Jason Knight, nice performance, needed that over to hit so bad

Nice submission for Jason Knight.

Sucks for Caceres that he'll probably be cut soon. He is on a 2-fight losing streak, and 2-2 in his last 4. However, he is 2-5 in his last 7. His 2 wins are over Cole Miller and Masio Fullen, which isn't a good look.

Ngganou & Arlovski really need to deliver some violence.

Hammering the under on Arlovski/Ngannu the minuie it was released was the easiest trigger ever pulled.

That Jason Knight choke is gonna end up costing me my biggest night ever, fucckckckckkc

GG Arlovski...

LETS GOO JORGE!! NOW YOU KNOW!

YES!

Masvidal is the one who called for this fight.

As I said really dumb fight for Cerrone. Jorge is a beast but not ranked. Not to mention Cerrone just had a war with Brown in which he was dropped and rocked hard just 6 weeks ago. Way too soon to come back. All that hype at WW killed off by a bad decision to fight so soon.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YEAAAH!!!

bet the two underdogs who I thought were alot better fighter than the favourites!! Lets go Jorge and Schev

Wow sick win from Shevchenko. Best female BW in the world imo. Would have def beat nunes if their fight was a 5 rounder.

On January 29 2017 02:53 Stim_Abuser wrote: As I said really dumb fight for Cerrone. Jorge is a beast but not ranked. Not to mention Cerrone just had a war with Brown in which he was dropped and rocked hard just 6 weeks ago. Way too soon to come back. All that hype at WW killed off by a bad decision to fight so soon.

You wouldnt be saying this if Cerrone won tho..

Sigh...

Shevchenko didn't do anything prior to getting the submission...

Sucks for Pena, but she didn't respect Shevchenko's guard.

+$435 - Woulda been thousands if Hick Diaz wasn't so damn good

+ Show Spoiler +

I thought Schev was super game and smart - knew she just had to avoid mistakes and Pena would gas herself and get wrecked somehow. Pena was exerting a lot of energy to get get stalemated for 1.5 rds, I was feeling great prior to the sub

On January 29 2017 03:04 jvilla777 wrote: [QUOTE]On January 29 2017 02:53 Stim_Abuser wrote: As I said really dumb fight for Cerrone. Jorge is a beast but not ranked. Not to mention Cerrone just had a war with Brown in which he was dropped and rocked hard just 6 weeks ago. Way too soon to come back. All that hype at WW killed off by a bad decision to fight so soon.

You wouldnt be saying this if Cerrone won tho..[/QUOTE

I said it before the fight. Even if he won it would have done nothing for his ranking or title shot hopes ]

On January 29 2017 03:04 jvilla777 wrote: Show nested quote + On January 29 2017 02:53 Stim_Abuser wrote: As I said really dumb fight for Cerrone. Jorge is a beast but not ranked. Not to mention Cerrone just had a war with Brown in which he was dropped and rocked hard just 6 weeks ago. Way too soon to come back. All that hype at WW killed off by a bad decision to fight so soon. You wouldnt be saying this if Cerrone won tho..

But Cerrone didnt just lose, he was almost dominated

On January 29 2017 03:06 PuertoRican wrote: Sigh... Shevchenko didn't do anything prior to getting the submission... Sucks for Pena, but she didn't respect Shevchenko's guard.

she was preserving energy, and did you see those sweeps? hella pts in a jj match

man masvidal was savage here. but then again cerrone's won 3 straight and it's time to fall back on the rankings again to avoid getting the title shot and get mauled lol. the guy's a gatekeeper if there ever was one. sport is just so insanely difficult now muay thai aint enough to get you to top 3

On January 29 2017 06:43 whamm! wrote: man masvidal was savage here. but then again cerrone's won 3 straight and it's time to fall back on the rankings again to avoid getting the title shot and get mauled lol. the guy's a gatekeeper if there ever was one. sport is just so insanely difficult now muay thai aint enough to get you to top 3

Dude wtf.

Cerrone is soooooo much more than just Muay Thai.... he's not even traditionally speaking all that thai style at all.

Super happy Masvidal won.

Even more happy Shevchenko won.

Cerrone just caves into pressure every damn time. He wins if he controls the center and that's all his wins, I've never seen him lose in the stand-up or be dead even with his opponent and win a fight. If somebody remotely has solid stand up and/or is unafraid of him (Brown, but he got lucky) gets in his face he just folds and acts like rousey, if he's lucky and clips his opponent in the exchange, he wins. Greg Jackson in his corner even told him, " you get clipped EVERY fight". His jiu jitsu is top level but seems like he only gets to use it in mad scrambles which never happens because he always keeps it standing (unless again, he clips his opponent).

His open shots for the takedown are a result of panic for the most part and if he even dreams about beating Conor that's going to be what's going to happen - he's going to shoot for his life, just like Eddie.

On January 30 2017 01:59 whamm! wrote: Cerrone just caves into pressure every damn time. He wins if he controls the center and that's all his wins, I've never seen him lose in the stand-up or be dead even with his opponent and win a fight. If somebody remotely has solid stand up and/or is unafraid of him (Brown, but he got lucky) gets in his face he just folds and acts like rousey, if he's lucky and clips his opponent in the exchange, he wins. Greg Jackson in his corner even told him, " you get clipped EVERY fight". His jiu jitsu is top level but seems like he only gets to use it in mad scrambles which never happens because he always keeps it standing (unless again, he clips his opponent). His open shots for the takedown are a result of panic for the most part and if he even dreams about beating Conor that's going to be what's going to happen - he's going to shoot for his life, just like Eddie.

He didn't get lucky vs Brown and he is a lot better than you are indicating, it's not "remotely solid standup and and/or is unafraid of him" - have you seen Cerrone vs Alvarez? Rousey mode is a bit much dude.

Agreed, however, pressure is his kryptonite and Conor probably toasts him but Masvidal ate some huge leg kicks and solid shots and was ultimately just better. It's not that bad on Cerrone's part, he didn't look scared until he got KTFO and Herb Dean showed once again what a terrible ref he is.

Props to Masvidal for being a savage and turning up the pressure vs his normal style, which he clearly did. One of the most technical strikers in the UFC bar none, and one of the most durable guys.

I would favor Masvidal over Woodley easily. Too durable to get 1-punched, too good to get held down. Those are the ways Woodley wins.

On January 30 2017 01:59 whamm! wrote: Cerrone just caves into pressure every damn time. He wins if he controls the center and that's all his wins, I've never seen him lose in the stand-up or be dead even with his opponent and win a fight. If somebody remotely has solid stand up and/or is unafraid of him (Brown, but he got lucky) gets in his face he just folds and acts like rousey, if he's lucky and clips his opponent in the exchange, he wins. Greg Jackson in his corner even told him, " you get clipped EVERY fight". His jiu jitsu is top level but seems like he only gets to use it in mad scrambles which never happens because he always keeps it standing (unless again, he clips his opponent). His open shots for the takedown are a result of panic for the most part and if he even dreams about beating Conor that's going to be what's going to happen - he's going to shoot for his life, just like Eddie.

His takedowns are generally pretty solid... Masvidal is honestly just really, really, really, really good.

Just loses many decisions he shouldn't lose.

I think you're underrating Cerrone quite badly, even if he's maybe a bit over-hyped on the whole...

I thought Cerrone was on top until he got caught at end of round 1? Obviously he got dominated in round 2 when he hadn't recovered, but looked to me like Cerrone was justifiably the favourite going into the fight based on what happened up until he got dropped

While watching the fight it seemed like every decent shot Jorge landed ruffled Cerrone, even jabs. This was essentially the first time Cerrone had ever been stopped via strikes to the head in 70 MMA/Kickboxing fights. His head is a block of cement. And while Jorge is a beast of a fighter and very underrated, he isn't really a big puncher. Only 13 of his 32 wins are via tko and almost al those are entirely over cans.

Seems pretty obvious to me Cerrone hadn't recovered from the war with Brown yet. Not saying Cerrone would have won otherwise, I thought this was a close fight that could go either way before hand, just don't think Cerrone was even remotely close to 100%.

It's crazy how far WW has fallen. Gastelum & Pig Rigg forced to MW, Rory to Bellator, Condit on the back end of his career losing 5 of his last 7. Lawler who essentially proven to be cheating pre USADA with his test levels released from the Rory fight and looks deflated and warn torn, I doubt he'll be a contender moving forward.

Only real top fighters at WW are Woodley/Wonderboy/Maia ( who's about to be 40 )

Was the most stacked division ever like 2 years ago.

Also I don't think Cerrones problems are mental that much. I simply think he's really good but not great, and fights a ton of mid level fighters due to activity and destroys them which bolsters his hype. He losses when he fights top competition not because a mental fault but because he really isn't that great. Also he fights too much to be optimal.

Not sure why everyone assumes that if you are good enough to beat mid level guys but not elite guys you simply must be mentally weak. RDA is simply a better fighter than him and also a bad style match up with his insane pressure. Diaz was just a really bad match up with his reach + pressure which never allowed Cerrone to get set and throw his kicks. His footwork was much worse back then at avoiding pressure, coupled with his poor head movement, which lead him to just eat combinations as he tried to plant for his kicks. Tho I do think current day Cerrone destroys Diaz.

Also cerrone is very easy to hit, maybe its because of the muay thay background standing tall and not evading shots just blocking it and trying to punish with a hard counter but they dont have much head or waist movement and cerrone sometimes moves the head, but almost never bends at the waist and doesnt uses much angles, with the amount of fights he takes I think he is a huge candidate for brain damage

back in the days when Jorge was a street fighter:

Alex Caceres too

On January 31 2017 15:25 alejandicto wrote: back in the days when Jorge was a street fighter:

Funny part is his opponent probably has better striking than the majority of UFC fighters lol