UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 - Page 2

On June 02 2016 04:49 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On June 01 2016 05:02 soberstone wrote: Rockhold by decision up to +640, opened at +330. This seems kinda nuts. If Bisping fights conservatively in the first couple rounds, he has a great gas tank and this could absolutely go the distance. If I was Bisping I'd want to take it into deep water anyway and rely on Rockhold feeling the pressure of being the overwhelming favorite / wanting a spectacular finish / hope he makes a mistake. Bisping is a smart fighter and I doubt he comes out "guns blazing". Would anyone really be +640 shocked if Rockhold took a decision? I'd be far more surprised at Faber winning, and that's down to +425 (aka lighting money on fire) Along that same line of thought I think the o 1.5 at +money is pretty great. I think he clearly said himself he isn't finishing the fight. Perhaps at +1500 ++ I would consider it, but his son and him both strategeze/prepare for either a lucky victory or gas out and get KOed. Well, actually it's only one of them is preparing for a lucky victory. I don't think they're liars here. Are you calling the Bispings liars?

I think I think you misunderstood, rockholds decition victory pays +640, not Bispings.

That line to me seems like the one with most value

Yeah, he clearly said himself his strategy is to go try to knock Rockhold out, and not fight a paced fight. He fully understands if it doesnt work the fight is ending. Like if he doesn't get lucky he will just have to all in over and over and die.

The O/U1.5 is a better question. I wouldn't mind the O1.5, but I don't like either.

The only question is Luke isn't the most dangerous counterstriker, as far as I've seen. He usually wears on people a litlte bit then crushes them when they come down a little. So I would propose 01.5, but don't like that either, under like +150.

I'm looking to probably take Jessica Andradge and James Vick ML's. Curious what Alecjandicto thinks about those. Do they qualify for your value system?

At 51:05 of the video, Rockhold says he had a knee injury during this camp (torn MCL) and has only been boxing.

Cruz said "you and your close eyes" to faber, can anyone explain that? Seems like people loved but i didnt get it :/

On June 02 2016 22:13 ERASA wrote: Cruz said "you and your close eyes" to faber, can anyone explain that? Seems like people loved but i didnt get it :/

Urijah Faber's eyes are quite close together, compared to other people's faces.

Thats all? I expected more... thanks for the explanation

how does the o1.5 line work

past the 2min 30s of 2nd round or past the 2 whole rounds

On June 03 2016 10:23 Spitfiree wrote: how does the o1.5 line work past the 2min 30s of 2nd round or past the 2 whole rounds

o1.5 = needs to go past 7 minutes and 30 seconds, which is 2:30 of Round 2.

o2.5 = needs to go past 12 minutes and 30 seconds, which is 2:30 of Round 3.

okay thanks, im considering betting o1.5 at +110 seems reasonable, ignoring the fact that Bisping said he wont go for the distance which is logical, but then again it would be Rockhold that sets the pace, the only variable is if he ll catch him fast enough

On June 02 2016 21:24 PuertoRican wrote: At 51:05 of the video, Rockhold says he had a knee injury during this camp (torn MCL) and has only been boxing.

Luke Rockhold: "I haven't grappled this entire camp, and I just started kicking last week."


According to some Sherdog detectives, Luke had a knee injury, but he has been fully healed for 2 months. There's also several videos that Luke posted himself of him kicking during his sparring sessions 3+ weeks ago: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/luk...m-throwing-kicks-3-weeks-ago.3258397/

Yeah I didn't actually believe or want to believe what Rockhold said about his knee when he did say it. Just a really odd time and manner in which to bring it up...as they were in scheduled face off interviews in order to market the fight. It's almost like Luke wanted to put an exaggeration out there so he can help sell the notion that this is a competitive fight...not that he's facing a 10:1 longshot. Kinda the same thing with his arrogant/dick'ish public persona. I mean yeah he kind of is one. But he comes off more so than he actually is and in sometimes weird, awkward ways because he's just not a natural or charismatic talker at all. He clearly has a lot of actual respect for Bisping. He basically humiliated Bisping with a one arm submission and instead of celebrating, instantly tried to help Bisping back up...barely fired up at all

Similar kinda thing...though I can believe it more that Bisping is just going to come in 'guns blazing nothing to lose etc etc.,' still feel there's an outside chance that it's just a little bit of bluster and maybe an attempt at a bit of misdirection. Yeah you'd think he'd do that because obviously he didn't have a full camp....but I mean...in 10+ years of professional fighting, when has Bisping ever just charged forward in order to throw haymakers on the inside. I just don't see how it suits him and his fighting style that hasn't changed ever even on a 2 week notice fight. Too long of a range and he's going to get kicked in the head by the longer Rockhold. Too close...I mean...Rockhold physically handled Weidman's inside pressure...don't see any doubt of Rockhold just grabbing ahold of Bisping and doing whatever he wants basically. Hopefully Bisping finds that good middle range for his boxing

Someone who really does need to just go all in on charging forward flurries is Faber. Bisping can actually box. Faber, not so much. And if he gets caught in an elongated outside technical striking fight against Dom like he did vs Edgar, he'll just lose another clear decision where he just feints and throws overhand rights from way too far...and further alienate the fan base that never wants to see him in a rankings relevant fight ever again. Hopefully he realizes he has about a 0.02% chance of outpointing Dom unless he makes the fight ugly the entire 25 minutes

Going to miss this event except possibly the main event. But will have bets on Holloway/Llamas over, Andrade, and Porier. Possibly light a little money on fire by putting a very small bias'd bet on Bisping just because I'm rooting for that feel good story and it'd cool to watch that mini miracle happen out at a bar

The UFC used a new weigh-in method for this card. Almost everyone weighed-in sometime after 10am local time, and they only had to step on the scale at 4pm local time to give the fans something to watch. Guida might have been the only guy who weighed in "for real" at 4pm.

Anyway, since everyone already re-hydrated before they got back on the scale at 4pm local time, we can't gain any new information from them. This weigh-in was basically a big waste of time from a betting point of view.

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Luke Rockhold (185) vs. Michael Bisping (185) – for middleweight title
Champ Dominick Cruz (135) vs. Urijah Faber (134.5) – for bantamweight title
Max Holloway (146) vs. Ricardo Lamas (145.5)
Dan Henderson (185.5) vs. Hector Lombard (184.5)
Bobby Green (155.5) vs. Dustin Poirier (155)
Clay Guida (146) vs. Brian Ortega (145)
Beneil Dariush (156) vs. James Vick (155.5)
Jessica Andrade (115.5) vs. Jessica Penne (115.5)
Alex Caceres (145.5) vs. Cole Miller (146)
Tom Breese (170.5) vs. Sean Strickland (171)
Luis Henrique da Silva (205.5) vs. Jonathan Wilson (205.5)
Kevin Casey (185) vs. Elvis Mutapcic (185)
“Maestro” Dong Hyun Kim (154.5) vs. Polo Reyes (155)

I think Faber has a good style against Cruz. I bet on him, but I'm not very confident. He's almost the only person that gave him trouble on Cruz's record. Thoughts?

On June 04 2016 00:36 Minsk wrote: I think Faber has a good style against Cruz. I bet on him, but I'm not very confident. He's almost the only person that gave him trouble on Cruz's record. Thoughts?

Their first fight was so long ago it's not relevant IMO.

In the second fight Faber had zero success for 25 straight minutes.

Since then, he's gotten worse relative to the game. He's the same fighter while everyone else has evolved and gotten better, including Cruz.

Faber is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC at this point. Frankie Saenz almost beat him.

Muhammad Ali died a couple of hours ago. He was Kevin Casey's father-in-law. Casey is married to his daughter, Hana Ali.

How will the effect Casey's performance? He either goes hard in Round 1 like he always does, then gasses. Or, he fights more patient and eventually loses a decision because he isn't a volume striker and will slow down anyway. Basically, I don't think this will change the fight at all. Casey's window to win the fight is still in R1.

just watched press conference, holy fuck dominic is annoying