UFC on FOX 17: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2

Date: Saturday, December 19th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/





Main Card (FOX)

Rafael dos Anjos (24-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (28-6) (Lightweight Championship)
Junior dos Santos (17-3) vs. Alistair Overeem (39-14) (Heavyweight)
Michael Johnson (16-9) vs. Nate Diaz (17-10) (Lightweight)
Randa Markos (5-2) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Charles Oliveira (20-5) vs. Myles Jury (15-1) (Featherweight)
C.B. Dollaway (15-7) vs. Nate Marquardt (33-15-2) (Middleweight)
Sarah Kaufman (17-3) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (11-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Josh Samman (12-2) vs. Tamdan McCrory (13-3) (Middleweight)
Nik Lentz (25-7-2) vs. Danny Castillo (17-9) (Lightweight)
Cole Miller (21-9) vs. Jim Alers (13-2) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Leon Edwards (10-2) vs. Kamaru Usman (6-1) (Welterweight)
Hayder Hassan (6-2) vs. Vicente Luque (7-5-1) (Welterweight)
Luiz Henrique (8-1) vs. Francis Ngannou (5-1) (Heavyweight)

Other

- Germaine de Randamie was scheduled to face Sarah Kaufman at the event. However, De Randamie pulled out of the fight on December 3 citing an injury. She was replaced by Valentina Shevchenko.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• RDA > Cerrone
• Overeem > JDS
• Johnson > Diaz (would be cool if MJ didn't use his wrestling, but I doubt it.)
• Kowalkiewicz > Markos
• Oliveira > Jury
• Dollaway > Marquardt
• Kaufman vs. Shevchenko (dunno)
• McCrory > Samman
• Lentz > Castillo
• Alers > Miller
• Edwards vs. Usman (dunno)
• Hassan vs. Luque (dunno)
• Henrique vs. Ngannou (dunno)

I'm taking Cerrone on this if the odds are really good which I think they will be. No IV rule means no more roido for RDA. I have had suspicions about this guy and we'll see if I'm correct or just a retard. Plus Cerrone is just way more awesome

On December 14 2015 01:13 whamm! wrote: I'm taking Cerrone on this if the odds are really good which I think they will be. No IV rule means no more roido for RDA. I have had suspicions about this guy and we'll see if I'm correct or just a retard. Plus Cerrone is just way more awesome

https://www.instagram.com/rdosanjosmma/

He looks pretty good still.

Cerrone one time via head kick round 1 plz so we can see cerrone vs mecgregor ufc 200

On December 14 2015 02:01 LikeASet wrote: Cerrone one time via head kick round 1 plz so we can see cerrone vs mecgregor ufc 200

I wonder what odds will be if it happens, McGregor vs Cerrone

I will be all over McGregor

Both have improved a lot but the last time they fought Cerrone was not really beat up in round 3 and RDA was starting to fade a bit. I think Cerrone being more aggressive early in his recent fights (and more relentless with his strikes from distance) will give RDA more problems than people think. I'd like to bet on Cerrone here in a 5 round war.

Cerrone sleeping RDA via head kick in round 1 would be amazing

I must be biased but I feel like the MJ/Diaz odds should be a little closer than over 4:1. Nate's still terrible at checking leg kicks properly but that's not what MJ does. MJ's quickness and boxing is really good. Gotta guess the gameplan is to use his large quickness advantage to dart in with flurries and move out laterally to not stay on the end of Nate's length and rinse/repeat. Not thinking Nate can stop that at all at first but if MJ can't really hurt Nate with those, would like to think an actual in shape Nate, not the one who showed up for RDA, can put enough eventual pressure on more than 1 in 4 times. Guess it does hurt that it's only for three rounds

Little sad about Weidman still. Still not sure how much of being confident on him was a bit of bias. Luke was clearly better everywhere...surprisingly by a significant margin in some areas like clinch control. Though he really was starting to breathe hard before he got a burst of energy by countering what turned out to be the worst thrown kick in a title fight (based on consequences following it) I've ever seen. Don't think it would've been the craziest 'what if' outlier in MMA to have seen an eventual Weidman win on that particular night if the silly notion of that kick hadn't ever occurred in his head. People instantly forgot that the first round was pretty 50/50 (MMAfighting scored it for Chris) and that Chris was probably winning a fairly uneventful third round til the kick...mostly because Luke won Rd 2 really hard and you can't get the image of what happened after out of your head. Was pretty hard watching the replay showing Weidman trying to throw up desperate punches from the bottom while fully mounted and after having absorbed about forty direct ground head strikes...and I'm sure already badly concussed...because he had so much heart trying anything to convince the ref to let it continue to the bell as he was getting beat all to hell

bets on RDA at -210 and Overeem at +280.

I see RDA dominating Cerrone in this match up. He is better than him everywhere and looks to be improving every time he steps in the cage. Cerrone can certainly cause him problems with his kicks and knees if he is able to establish his range, but I don't see that happening. RDA is probably even better than the last time they fought and Cowboy is remaining stagnant.

The Reem vs JDS is great fight and a long time coming. I think this is a pickem fight. Overeem has every advantage in the technical aspect of the game and I think the skills to expose Junior big weakness in the clinch. Still as we know with him there is every chance he completely dominates the fight until he becomes careless and getting KO'd out of nowhere. At this odds thought - definitely value in betting him.

On a side note Nate Diaz is looking in great shape for this fight:


Still think Michael Johnson movement should cause him big trouble, as Diaz brothers are struggling with that and he will get beaten down again.

I think RDA still has to prove himself even though he destroyed Pettis, however he didn't finish him even though he landed pretty nasty shots right in the beginning that made the fight the way it went. Cerrone s a decent test considering Nurmagumedov will probably retire? and everyone else in the division s just meh.
RDA was in probably in the best shape in his life during the Pettis fight so I think he will be a bit overhyped
I just hope if RDA wins McGregor wont pussy out of his words and fight him

My biggest pre-fight bet is 5u on Tamdan +145. There's some nice money to be made on this card.

If the same RDA that fought Pettis fights Cerrone he destroys him I think. Sure he slowed down in the first fight but thats before he went super sayain. A lot of fighters haven't been looking themselves lately so I don't even know what to think.

On December 15 2015 23:44 Stim_Abuser wrote: If the same RDA that fought Pettis fights Cerrone he destroys him. A lot of fighters haven't been looking themselves lately so I don't even know what to think.

Exactly my thoughts, but i honnestly doubt he has faded enough to lose that, so ill go with RDA

Edwards +175 looked like a dream, then i checked out his opponement, and i might just pass.

What do u guys think of Oliveira a +105?

Will post bets as I makem

RDA v Cerrone - Totally depends on what version of who shows up. Bet Cerrone at +250 a long time ago after line opened because of the juice issue. If RDA looks good, I'll probably buy-out of that at a profit, if not, I'll hold strong.
JDS > Overeem - Odds seem way too wide though.
Johnson > Diaz
Jury > Oliveria
Dolloway > Marquardt
Kaufman v ?
McCorry v Samman - Dunno, need to study the barncat and see how he matches up
Castillo > Lentz
Miller > Alers
Usman v Edwards - Dunno, need to see what kind of TDD and defensive footwork Edwards is working with
Luque > Hassan
? v ?

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 14 2015 16:09 Spitfiree wrote: I think RDA still has to prove himself even though he destroyed Pettis, however he didn't finish him even though he landed pretty nasty shots right in the beginning that made the fight the way it went. Cerrone s a decent test considering Nurmagumedov will probably retire? and everyone else in the division s just meh. RDA was in probably in the best shape in his life during the Pettis fight so I think he will be a bit overhyped I just hope if RDA wins McGregor wont pussy out of his words and fight him

IIRC Khabib already said he isn't retiring and is targetting..... I wanna say sometime spring 2016 for return? Can't remember. Maybe I just dreamt this tho but pretty sure.

Some thoughts on the RDA vs Cerrone rematch.

The one thing I noticed upon re-watching RDA vs Cerrone and subsequent tape is that even juice aside, RDA is a superior fighter, HOWEVER, Cerrone seems to match up with him really well relative to how good they are individually in a vacuum.

RDA's left body and occasional head kick, straight left, and unpredictable level changes or clinch initiations (followed by a great set of trips and top-game) are the crux of his offensive game.

The clinch and bottom game of Cerrone are unreal good. Equally elite are his threat of his counter-knee's vs level changing opponents, so he seemed to feel comfortable striking freely even with a guy as dangerous as RDA.

That said, in their first fight, Cerrone actually did really well in neutralizing the straight left and body kicks by being such an experienced striker and knowing how to use his range and knowledge to see it all coming and block and counter. RDA didn't seem comfortable throwing his best strikes.

But RDA still out-struck him with forward pressure, volume, and speed.

Where Cerrone actually did get caught and rattled consistently was RDA's right hook, which isn't that great but he landed for whatever reason (the fact that he was just the more durable, faster, pressuring guy is probably the reason in conjunction with Cerrone's non-existent head-movement, he relies completely on his guard and length for defense)

All of this, combined with the 5 round factor, the juicing factor, the RDA layoff factor, and the 2:1ish odds make me like Cerrone's odds, even if it's still an 80 percent RDA.

All that said, I still gotta lean RDA because at his peak, he's levels above anything Cerrone has ever even come close to. In fact, I think the RDA vs Pettis fight, that RDA on that night was the best light-weight we've ever seen in the Octagon, and may see for a while unless McGregor turns out to be even more of a God than he already is.

He was so good and so juiced vs Pettis that he was just an unstoppable robot. It was an insane performance. It really is more insane upon re-watch.

I think RDA is very good but also very overrated after he beat Pettis on a stylistic advantage. I think Cerrone is very good and underrated, and I can't see it possibly being more than 60/40 for RDA. I think there is good value on Cerrone.

RDA's main focal points are Leg Kicks, Constant Rhythmic Pressure, and Good Ground Game. None of which seem particularly great against Cerrone. It's like the things hes improved since their last fight, the things that made RDA very good shouldn't be huge advantages.

On December 16 2015 06:55 soberstone wrote: I think the RDA vs Pettis fight, that RDA on that night was the best light-weight we've ever seen in the Octagon. He was so good and so juiced vs Pettis that he was just an unstoppable robot.

Really like Cerrone and like your analysis on their matchup but ^^ is why I'm just going to pass. Some fights kinda widen your eyes because it's a crazy knockout of nowhere. That one was similar yet different where afterwards...just kinda shaking your head at how ridiculous RDA was for every minute of all five rounds.

Actually going to go small on Cerrone in hopes that the testing and layoff factors play out to be larger than I initially thought

On December 16 2015 22:46 Minsk wrote: I think RDA is very good but also very overrated after he beat Pettis on a stylistic advantage. I think Cerrone is very good and underrated, and I can't see it possibly being more than 60/40 for RDA. I think there is good value on Cerrone.

Where is Cerrone really underrated though? I think people's general opinion on him is pretty on par. Nice range of kicks with elite power. Dangerous with subs off his back and super quick at capitalizing with subs if he hurts you. Slowly improved his hands but still not the best IQ or as fluid with them in comparison to top level. Pretty susceptible to infighting on the feet if he's not moving forward with knees. Eddie Alvarez got in chains of dirty boxing uppercuts on him and Cerrone just kinda stood there taking them for awhile.

Really rooting for him though.

RDA was juicing? As in using steroids? Am I missing something here, any confirmed source or are these just assumptions?

On December 17 2015 13:19 jvilla777 wrote: RDA was juicing? As in using steroids? Am I missing something here, any confirmed source or are these just assumptions?

just random shit lol
dont know where people get these assumptions from, also basing their bets on random assumptions because he looked amazing vs pettis, just like "brazilian judges" that people insist, when 90% of the fights in Brazil the judges are the same as in vegas

so much value in RDA on this fight, his odds are getting better, will wait a bit more and put some good money on him

I just noticed that Nik Lentz is going back up to 155 for this fight. He fought his last 5 or so fights at 145 after previously spending most of his career at 155.

Training footage of RDA for the Cerrone fight. He still looks like a beast to me.

Johnson Diaz odds too wide now. Nate at +440

I'll throw a small bet on Nate. He looks in shape for this fight.

On December 17 2015 13:19 jvilla777 wrote: RDA was juicing? As in using steroids? Am I missing something here, any confirmed source or are these just assumptions?

As much as a Pettis fan boy i am, such accusations with no real ground underneath are to be dismissed.It's cause he looked really well plus given he s 31, however people forget its 155lb division so... And its not like he won the fight with pure strength, in fact he didn't have it to finish it, it was pure skill advantage sadly

Fight will be fun either way, both guys have improved a ton so it will be nice to see them fight, however if RDA wins and McGregor doesn't go up and Alvarez loses to Pettis the division will be pretty much dead. Can't really expect Khabib to have a healthy return for a long term period

On December 17 2015 23:15 northsails wrote: Johnson Diaz odds too wide now. Nate at +440 I'll throw a small bet on Nate. He looks in shape for this fight.

Mentally and physically, he's in the best shape he has ever been in.

Will it win him the fight? Dunno. But I'm waiting for his line to move a little higher on Bookmaker; it's currently +380. I don't think MJ will get the finish, so -550 for a guy whose likeliest path to victory is by decision is not worth it.

The average bettor expects MJ to employ the same strategy against Nate, that he used against Barboza, which I don't think will happen. Nate is dangerous on his back, as he's a black belt in BJJ and always scrambles, and MJ isn't an elite wrestler, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him have troubles taking Nate down and/or keeping him down and/or doing any significant damage from the top. I expect MJ to use a lot of kicks and work for take downs and LnP on top if he can't dominate the striking in R1.

On December 17 2015 05:20 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On December 16 2015 06:55 soberstone wrote: I think the RDA vs Pettis fight, that RDA on that night was the best light-weight we've ever seen in the Octagon. He was so good and so juiced vs Pettis that he was just an unstoppable robot. Really like Cerrone and like your analysis on their matchup but ^^ is why I'm just going to pass. Some fights kinda widen your eyes because it's a crazy knockout of nowhere. That one was similar yet different where afterwards...just kinda shaking your head at how ridiculous RDA was for every minute of all five rounds. Actually going to go small on Cerrone in hopes that the testing and layoff factors play out to be larger than I initially thought

I totally agree with your analysis of my analyses, lol, its a pass at the current odds and my bet on Cerrone was one of the rare future plays I made (I hate tying up money in fights that might fall through) but I just couldn't resist incase RDA really does come in completely different, which I think is more than probable. Even then it may have been a little fishy but I dunno, something just tells that without the ability to pressure and throw with 100 percent power for multiple minutes straight in a 25 minute fight, which is pretty much unprecedented outside of Mighty Mouse and Valasquez at see level, the complexion of the fight should look dramatically different. That doesn't mean Cerrone wins though, it just means it might get real interesting and despite RDA holding the belt, I think Cerrone gets the close rounds on 2/3 cards a lot of the time.

FWIW, this may sound totally self-righteous and dickish, but if you don't know that RDA was 100 percent juiced to the gills vs Pettis, go back and watch some fights from his loss to Jeremy Stephens up until that fight. Just watch the first 10 seconds of each. Watch the progression, particularly after he got ragdolled by Khabib and the fights after that. If at that point you aren't willing to admit that as fact, you don't know the fight game. I'm sorry, I have to be blunt about that.

If Vitor never tested positive would we still be right to assume steroids were a huge part of his career? Ofcourse we would be.

This is absolutely no different, and win or lose for RDA, Saturday will prove it. There's a reason RDA wanted almost a year off after whooping Pettis's ass and it wasn't 'family'. Cycling off takes time, it's very, very, important and I'm sure he knows this.

Roids or not, RDA has become an Elite, Elite MMA fighter. I'm not trying to take anything away from him technically, he's amazing. But I'm just calling it like I see it because I'd obviously rather make good decisions.

Supposedly he didn't even have a real s&c program until 3 years ago... not that any pro fighter being on something is ever unlikely.

For his last camp, Jim Alers trained at ATT alongside Cole Miller. For this fight against Cole Miller, he did his camp at MMA Masters.

http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Jim-Alers?id=

"TRAINING: I have complete changed everything up for this camp. My last fight I did zero strength & conditioning and zero stand-up mitt work. I was at ATT and we mainly focused on just sparring and live wrestling. I couldn't find the time to get everything I needed in. Now I have changed camps. I'm at MMA Masters and a lot has changed. I wake up early everyday to take my two-year-old and my five-month-old to my mom before I make the 45 minute drive to MMA Masters. There, we focus a lot on drilling and situational training that will get me prepared for Cole. I then take a small break and head to my S&C session that has taken my conditioning to new heights. I go there about three times a week. At night I'm either at Vagner Rocha Martial Arts sharpening my jiu-jitsu or hitting mitts with my boxing coach. I went from doing zero days of stand-up techniques and mitts to about four to five times a week. My focus this time around is to not make the same mistakes as last time. Of course, I find time for runs throughout the day in between all the training. My day usually ends at about 9:30-10pm.

Thoughts on opponent, Cole Miller? Cole is very seasoned and has had more fights in the UFC than I have had in my whole career. There is not really anything bad I can say about the guy. I used to train with him at American Top Team, so I'm sure he is very familiar with my old style and I am very familiar with his. He is very tricky on the ground and has the reach of a giraffe. I think he is going to be a great test for me because I never see him give up. I'm excited to put all my new skills to test against him. He's one of those fighters that you have to be precise with everything you do or he will capitalize on your mistakes."

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Rafael dos Anjos (154.5) vs. Donald Cerrone (154.5) – for lightweight title
Junior Dos Santos (239) vs. Alistair Overeem (243)
Nate Diaz (156) vs. Michael Johnson (155.5)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (114.5) vs. Randa Markos (116)
Myles Jury (146) vs. Charles Oliveira (150.5)*
C.B. Dollaway (185.5) vs. Nate Marquardt (186)
Sarah Kaufman (136) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (134)
Tamdan McCrory (185) vs. Josh Samman (186)
Danny Castillo (158)* vs. Nik Lentz (156)
Jim Alers (145) vs. Cole Miller (146)
Leon Edwards (171) vs. Kamaru Usman (171)
Hayder Hassan (170) vs. Vicente Luque (171)
Luis Henrique (248) vs. Francis Ngannou (254)

* – Missed weight on first attempt (there was a scale issue for several fighters; will update once they check the weight on a different scale)

Well RDA looked fantastic. Bought out of the Cerrone bet at a profit or breakeven depending on outcome, I fully expect RDA to win but still wouldn't be shocked otherwise simply cause of the style matchup. Should be a really, really great fight.

RDA looked pretty good despite all the rumours
Reem looked soft, damn

Added a second bet to Lentz b4 I knew there was an issue with the scale. I still think he'll win, but I was hoping Castillo missed weight.

On December 18 2015 21:41 drone666 wrote: RDA looked pretty good despite all the rumours Reem looked soft, damn

Both Overeem and JDS looked soft. Overeem because of the obvious reason, but I'm not sure what JDS' excuse is.

On December 18 2015 21:49 PuertoRican wrote: Added a second bet to Lentz b4 I knew there was an issue with the scale. I still think he'll win, but I was hoping Castillo missed weight. Show nested quote + On December 18 2015 21:41 drone666 wrote: RDA looked pretty good despite all the rumours Reem looked soft, damn Both Overeem and JDS looked soft. Overeem because of the obvious reason, but I'm not sure what JDS' excuse is.

JDS looked like he aged about 20 years.

WSOF 26: Palmer vs. Almeida (tonight, Friday)


Main Card (6pm PST/9pm EST @ NBC Sports)

Featherweight Lance Palmer vs. Alexandre de Almeida (weight)
Lightweight Ozzy Dugulubgov vs. Nic Herron-Webb (weight)
Featherweight Josh Hill vs. Bekbulat Magomedov (weight)
Featherweight Sheymon Moraes vs. Robbie Peralta (weight)
Light Heavyweight Clinton Williams vs. Jake Heun (weight)

Preliminary Card (3:30pm PST/6:30pm EST @ WSOF.com)

Welterweight Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Danny Davis Jr. (weight)
Lightweight Johnny Nunez vs. David Jordan (weight)
Featherweight Hakeem Dawodu vs. Marat Magomedov (weight)
Lightweight Giga Chikadze vs. Gil Guardado (weight)

----------

Palmer > Almeida
Ozzy > Webb
Hill vs. Magomedov (dunno)
Moraes > Peralta
Heun > Williams

RDA looked good. Not as psychotically good as vs Pettis. I remember thinking his neck was about to bulge out of his body when he was staring off against Pettis. I still think if Cerrone can avoid getting tagged hard early, he's going to be continually dangerous as the rounds go on but I guess it doesn't matter if the Pettis fight version of RDA shows up.

Don't care anymore if it's my bias. Definitely putting some on Nate. Even while knowing MJ is the better fighter at this point in time, feel too strongly like the odds reflect Nate's last appearance a bit much which really just wasn't him at 100%. Plus that was against robot RDA. Mentally healthy and in shape Nate showed up and when they squared up, I can't help but think Nate's length will be a factor to help him negate the big speed advantage MJ has.

- Although I did just remember that he was in shape vs Benson and I remember thinking he'd use his length well vs Benson but that didn't happen at all and he caught a beating. I'd like to think Benson's an overall better fighter than MJ though. Especially that year's Benson

- Think JDS's body still looks relatively healthy. It's just that his face looking like it aged a bunch is a little distracting

Myles Jury ?@FuryJury 2m2 minutes ago
There was no problem w/ scale. I made weight & Charles still weighed 5lbs over in back on 3 scales (AGAIN). He didn't try to cut after.

What a lame ass fighter, quits in fights all the time and didn't even try to make weight. Hope Jury comes to fight smart and well.

On December 18 2015 22:36 soberstone wrote: Myles Jury ?@FuryJury 2m2 minutes ago There was no problem w/ scale. I made weight & Charles still weighed 5lbs over in back on 3 scales (AGAIN). He didn't try to cut after. What a lame ass fighter, quits in fights all the time and didn't even try to make weight. Hope Jury comes to fight smart and well.

Weird, considering Joe Silva said Oliveira did a pre-weigh-in on the scale in the back and he was fine. You can hear Silva say it while Charles is on stage wondering what's going on.


Joe Silva: "That's impossible... ...they pre-weighed him in the back, he's not 5 pounds over."

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Charles Oliveira's official weight is 150.5 pounds, and he forfeits 20% of his prize purse.

Danny Castillo's official weight is 155.8 pounds.

That is weird. I trust Joe Silva, but if you are Chuck O. there's no way you don't know you are way off track when cutting weight and then missing by 5. There was probably a shitty scale backstage that was getting stuck on the proper weight or something cuz Castillo had the same reaction.

Also a side-note, if you go back and watch the 3 weigh-ins prior to 194 weekend, the scales were blatantly light every time. Everyone was weighing in at championship weight, some a pound under - particularly the Australia event (I thought they were just making sure Rousey made weight that one time but than it continued for 2 more weekends). Don't really care just found it interesting.

There's speculation on Sherdog that Cerrone might be injured. Overeem showed concern for something that happened to Cerrone, and he subtly gestures to Cerrone's right side or his lower body around: https://youtu.be/iSh8jCSWTF8?t=7m15s


This matches up with something that I noticed yesterday during the weigh-in, which is that Cerrone was holding his hand at a weird angle, almost like he hurt his thumb. So if we take Overeem's concern into question and how he pointed to the right side/lower portion of Cerrone's body, it can either be a leg issue, or a right hand issue: https://youtu.be/FzR1pORdJGw?t=34m35s

This might be nothing at all, but who knows... Cerrone would NEVER tell anyone he is hurt and give up the title shot he has been waiting many years for, especially since he will never earn a title shot again if he loses today.

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Final Pre-Fight Bets:

Excited for this card from a betting perspective because I think the fight dynamics allow for some pretty cool sharp profitable sharp angles, hence all the props.

Straight:
RDA > Cerrone SU -200 $200.00
Cerrone > RDA SU 250 $100.00
Overeem > Dos Santos SU 275 $200.00
Diaz > Johnson SU 425 $50.00
Jury > Oliveria SU -120 $550.00
Markos > Kowalkiewicz SU -170 $170.00
Marquardt > Dolloway SU 350 $50.00
Schevenko > Kaufman SU 185 $100.00
Miller > Ayers SU 115 $75.00
Luque > Hassan SU 100 $100.00

O/U:
Jury/Oliveria Under 2.5 Rounds O/U -120 $250
Dolloway / Marquardt Under 1.5 Rounds O/U 140 $50.00
Samman / McCrory Over 1.5 Rounds O/U -130 $130.00
Lentz / Castillo Over 2.5 Rounds O/U -200 $200.00

Props:
RDA wins by 5 Round Decision PROP 125 $250.00
Cerrone wins via KO/TKO/DQ PROP 415 $50.00
Cerrone wins in Rd 4 PROP 1,850 $25.00
Cerrone wins in Rd 5 PROP 2,350 $25.00
Overeem wins in Rd 1 PROP 1,025 $25.00
Johnson wins via 3 Round Decision PROP -125 $125.00
Johnson / Diaz Goes 3-Round Distance PROP -140 $140.00
Markos vs Kowalkiewicz Goes 3-Round Distance PROP -250 $225.00
Marqaurdt wins in Rd 1 PROP 915 $25.00
Schevenko wins in Rd 2 PROP 909 $25.00
Samman wins via 3 Round Decision PROP 365 $50.00
Lentz wins by 3 Round Decision PROP 198 $150.00
Lentz wins in Rd 3 PROP 1,425 $25.00
Castillo (Scorecards = No Action) PROP -110 $220.00
Miller (Scorecards = No Action) PROP -205 $205.00
Usman wins by 3 Round Decision PROP 105 $75.00
Edwards wins by TKO/KO/DQ PROP 500 $25.00
Edwards (Scorecards = No Action) PROP 121 $100.00
Ngannou wins by TKO/KO/DQ PROP 190 $100.00

Parlays:
Myles Jury (-150) + Not Santos Rd 1 (-145) PL 182 $100.00
Not Lentz ITD (-515) + Not Hassan ITD (-290) PL -165 $400.00
Overeem (+275) + Markos (-190) + Jury (-150) + Schvenko (185) + Castillo/Lentz o 1.5 (-200) + Miller (105) + Luque (-115) PL 15,529 $25.00

On December 19 2015 19:52 PuertoRican wrote: My bets pre-live betting: [spoiler]I have way too many bets on this card pre-fight, which is rare for me. I got carried away for some reason. Anyway, I plan to live bet a lot as usual, especially in the 3 spots I mention below: - I bet Hassan's line without knowing anything about his opponent, and now Hassan is the underdog.

Caught a round of Hassan's fight on TUF randomly one day. Decided he was really really terrible at MMA in about 12 seconds. Have no idea who his opponent is but I can't imagine laying money on Hassan in a fight unless he was fighting in RFA or something

Btw why did you like Tamdan so much? Just curious. I felt very neutral to the line.

WOW!

Ngannou with an UPPERCUT FROM HELL!

Great start to the card.

On December 19 2015 20:39 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On December 19 2015 19:52 PuertoRican wrote: My bets pre-live betting: [spoiler]I have way too many bets on this card pre-fight, which is rare for me. I got carried away for some reason. Anyway, I plan to live bet a lot as usual, especially in the 3 spots I mention below: - I bet Hassan's line without knowing anything about his opponent, and now Hassan is the underdog. Btw why did you like Tamdan so much? Just curious. I felt very neutral to the line.

I like Tamdan's skills, chin, striking, and power. Also, the odds, especially at +161, is way off.

Since I know what Samman has to offer, I like Tamdan in this spot.

Bookmaker line movement

Cerrone +160
RDA -185

Overeem +211
JDS -254

Diaz +345
MJ -425

Shevchenko +120
Kaufman -140

McCrory +170
Samman -200

On December 18 2015 01:31 soberstone wrote: FWIW .....

Okay and I might come off really naive, well I am, considering the topic and not aware of how exactly steroid cycles work, but If RDA has to cycle it well and the cycle takes a year he will definitely fail soon. I mean its not like the UFC will "allow" him to just fight once per year, at one point he ll be put under pressure where he could either fake an injury which would still lead to an interim title or force him into a situation where he s exposed. Now I know that probably the average fighter doesn't think into such depth as in what will happen in XX amount of months and even taking such a risk might seem justified in ones eyes, but still ... :/
Anyways I guess we ll see today and in his next fight whenever it is. Would not be surprised if you are absolutely right, problem is you cant prove it which doesn't prove you re wrong though

gg hassan

Dominant win for Usman.

Props to Edwards for working on his TDD and movement on the ground; he probably would've been submitted if he didn't work with AKA for this fight.

Was about to blind follow you guys on Shevchenko. A little less blind now. Just saw her last fight and she's actually really fluid. Not great that she has a tko loss to shitty Carmouche but it was a really long time ago so I imagine she was still getting used to MMA

On December 19 2015 21:59 iakim322 wrote: Was about to blind follow you guys on Shevchenko. A little less blind now. Just saw her last fight and she's actually really fluid. Not great that she has a tko loss to shitty Carmouche but it was a really long time ago so I imagine she was still getting used to MMA

I didn't see the fight, but other people said the loss to Carmouche was due to a cut.

Since Carmouche is a wrestler, she probably got Shevchenko down and sliced her with elbows.

Sigh...

Bitch ass eye pokes...

lol buffer trying to hype the no contest? :D

What a terrible terrible fight. Nik Lentz looks slower than Roy Nelson. Danny Castillo only slightly faster

Nik Lentz set a high pace, and he moved back up to 155 for this fight.

Danny Castillo lost ANOTHER split-decision! 3 split-decisions in his past 4 fights.

Just got home to see that the Lentz Castillo fight went exactly as expected.

Up big so far.

Pissed that Miller got NC'ed, looked like that was a fight he was going to win just reading play by play.

BtSports using the Ronda knockout to promote their social media, nice

On December 19 2015 21:59 iakim322 wrote: Was about to blind follow you guys on Shevchenko. A little less blind now. Just saw her last fight and she's actually really fluid. Not great that she has a tko loss to shitty Carmouche but it was a really long time ago so I imagine she was still getting used to MMA

She beat JJ 3 times in Muai Thai matches. Her striking accolades, combined with Kaufman slowing down fight by fight, and Kaufman's style as a high-volume forward-moving striker, combined with what I've heard about Schevchenko, made it a slam dunk bet at +185. I still have never seen her fight TBH. Excited to see what she's got.

Damn. All you Barncat lovers, I see why. Awesome fight IMO.

On December 19 2015 20:57 PuertoRican wrote: WOW! Ngannou with an UPPERCUT FROM HELL! Great start to the card. Show nested quote + On December 19 2015 20:39 iakim322 wrote:   On December 19 2015 19:52 PuertoRican wrote: My bets pre-live betting: [spoiler]I have way too many bets on this card pre-fight, which is rare for me. I got carried away for some reason. Anyway, I plan to live bet a lot as usual, especially in the 3 spots I mention below: - I bet Hassan's line without knowing anything about his opponent, and now Hassan is the underdog. Btw why did you like Tamdan so much? Just curious. I felt very neutral to the line. I like Tamdan's skills, chin, striking, and power. Also, the odds, especially at +161, is way off. Since I know what Samman has to offer, I like Tamdan in this spot.

Impressive.

I really liked how relaxed he was during the times Josh was controlling or trying to control in Rd 1 and some of 2.

Like a BOSS!

Like an OG!

any linx guys?

http://firstrowus1.eu/watch/396824/1/...-cerrone-2---early-preliminaries.html

Kaufman getting owned

Schevchenko looking like one of the bets of the year at +185.

Would love to see her fight Holm in a year, she looks like a true 25'er though which might hurt her.

If Kaufman had any form of a top game that could have gotten hairy, lol.

I have a bet on Shevshenko too, hearing she defeated joanna was enough for me :D

Another 4.6 units thanks to Shevchenko.

I'm sad she wasn't able to snatch a sub after throwing Kaufman, though.

And she speaks english too... doesn't hurt when trying to become a star

BAM. KO FOR NATE, SICK.

Dollaway stopped being patient for 1 moment, and then ran into a short right punch from Marquardt.

Sucks for all those schmucks who payed over -400 for Dollaway.

cb offered his face as a christmas gift to that fist...

anyone got a link? firstrow seems to be down.

On December 20 2015 00:21 Stim_Abuser wrote: anyone got a link? firstrow seems to be down.

You don't have Fox Sports 1?

There's just 1 more prelim fight left, then we switch to FOX for the main card, and I think everyone in America has FOX (usually channel 2 or 3 on every cable box).

Firstrow went down for me but is back up
http://firstrowus1.eu/watch/396822/1/...os-vs-cerrone-2---preliminairies.html

Just hit the under pretty big as a semi-hedge for Jury

Let's go miles

On December 20 2015 00:26 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 20 2015 00:21 Stim_Abuser wrote: anyone got a link? firstrow seems to be down. You don't have Fox Sports 1? There's just 1 more prelim fight left, then we switch to FOX for the main card, and I think everyone in America has FOX (usually channel 2 or 3 on every cable box).

Don't got cable since i don't watch tv, just use netflix or amazon firestick

CHARLES "DO BRONX" OLIVEIRA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SHIP ME MY MOTHERFUCKING MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If only he wouldn't miss weight all the time... really like him as a fighter :/

Ouch... Olivera such a luck box bum frontrunner. Jury bro cmon

Smart to take under with it

man in order to keep up with the level of competition in the UFC one must probably be insanely dedicated and talented. if i were i fighter id do belator first just get noticed before getting my ass whupped in the UFC lol
Miles Jury could probably be champ in Belator haha

Just hammered RDA at -175

RDA -165 @ 5dimes
RDA -175 @ Bookmaker

I have Markos, Diaz, JDS and RDA

firstrow died on me

http://www.vipbox.tv/boxing/335563/1/...os-vs-cerrone-live-stream-online.html

This guy "Barry Luxenberg" -- this is the first MMA he's judged in all of 2015. He's the guy who gave it to Kaufman and Castillo. He's also the only guy to give it 30-27 to Usman. (so he's been the outlier in all 3 fights)

Anyone else about to go all in on RDA?

Fudge. Had to step out for dinner and came back to see most of my prelims profits disappear on Jury. And killed a decent parlay with longshot Diaz as the 5th and last. Did he overextend and make a mistake or was Olivera just really good in snatching the submission?

Olivera took him down, took his back worked a bit from there, eventually jury got up, but olivera instantly sunk in the guillotine, jumped guard and jury tapped while still standing. Was pretty well done by Olivera i would say.

Jury is so overrated, especially his BJJ.

The kid has a name for his "own style" of BJJ called Jury JJ, which is laughable.

I dont always adjust my shorts, but when i do its with 17s in the 3rd round while being down on the scorecards... gg lol

+10.2 units from that Karolina's win.

Great night thus far!

nate Diaz is sooo fun omg

Wow Diaz is a bossss

NATEEEE! Ship it :D

How can you not love the Diaz brothers.

Fox is amused :D :D :D

Never seen 95% of a postfight censored out. Rofl

SICK FIGHT!!!

I'm so happy for Nate Diaz!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ohh wasn't censored on my stream.. thought you could hear that on fox :/

Oh yeah heard none of it on TV

Super nervous...
If JDS loses i will be soo sad...

Underdogs have won the last 6 fights in a row.

I hope overeem retreats to the cage like against nelson... JDS wont go for a double leg

Come on Overeem one time!

OH Fucking YES!!

Fuck my life...

With Overeem's win, underdogs won the last 7 fights in a row.

I hope RDA wins, thats my only left in a big parlay.

Great fight by Overeem. Greg Jackson has done a great job with him.

Cerrone let's do this shit!

Nice good work overeem. +270 was cash there

guess something was wrong withhis right side?

Yes motherfucker, I just won 300 bucks in my parlay (Diaz, Overeem, RDA)

Lol gl moving up mcgregor .

That line was all cerrone hype and fan favoritism
Especially dropping to -170 on bovada

ugh fanboyism didn't save my pick this time. RDA just to tough to handle for him

RDA vs Conor is going to be great(if it happens). I favor RDA slightly.

I always favor everybody slightly over mcgregor... and then he starts predicting deez tings =(

Good to see Reem fighting smart. So much talent he wasted for so long just being a cocky shit.

lol Olivera, Diaz and RDA calling out McGregor... and he is just sitting there "Its good to have options!"

On December 20 2015 03:12 ERASA wrote: I always favor everybody slightly over mcgregor... and then he starts predicting deez tings =(

RDA is a nightmare match up for McGregor.

I'm done going against McGregor, i'll just enjoy the show

fuckin aweful main / co main. Highlight of the night was prly seeing randa tug on polish chick's boobs and seeing diaz back in true stockton form

This was an exciting card for the most part, way better than all 3 of the cards last week, even though the hype (or lack thereof) was different.

Sucks for Cerrone, but he was never meant for the title in modern day MMA. He's way too easy to hit in round 1, and he still is weak to the body, especially after his motorcycle accident years back.

I'm super excited for Overeem. I didn't give him much of a chance, aside from a decision, which it looked like he was going to win with his movement.

I honneslty am still shocked RDA was -170.

To me, he clearly should have been an huge Fav. I think people don't understand how good RDA is. I'm kinda hoping conor dodges him cuz if one man can stop Conor, thats RDA.

On December 19 2015 19:52 PuertoRican wrote: My bets pre-live betting: + Show Spoiler + I have way too many bets on this card pre-fight, which is rare for me. I got carried away for some reason. Anyway, I plan to live bet a lot as usual, especially in the 3 spots I mention below: - While I think Karolina will win, I bet too much on her by accident; I bet her +170 line and forgot I already bet her +160 line. - I bet Hassan's line without knowing anything about his opponent, and now Hassan is the underdog. - I made a 2nd bet on Nik Lentz when I thought Castillo legit missed weight, but it was just a scale issue, and he made weight when they weighed him again. Rafael dos Anjos -200 $60 for $30 Donald Cerrone +190 $20 for $38 Cerrone/RDA u4.5 +125 $20 for $25 Overeem/JDS o1.5 +130 $10 for $13 Alistair Overeem submission +1500 $3 for $45 Nate Diaz +380 $5 for $19 Nate Diaz +414 $5 for $20.70 Nate Diaz submission +750 $3 for $22.50 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +170 $15 for $25.50 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +160 $10 for $16 Charles Oliveira +105 $15 for $15.75 Charles Oliveira +125 $10 for $12.50 Nate Marquardt submission +1025 $2 for $20.50 Valentina Shevchenko +180 $20 for $36 Valentina Shevchenko submission +1325 $5 for $66.25 Shevchenko/Kaufman u2.5 +180 $5 for $9 Tamdan McCrory +145 $50 for $72.50 McCrory/Samman u1.5 +110 $10 for $11 Nik Lentz -125 $12.50 for $10 Nik Lentz -110 $11 for $10 Cole Miller +100 $10 for $10 Cole Miller submission +350 $5 for $17.50 Kamaru Usman submission +498 $5 for $24.90 Hayder Hassan -115 $5.75 for $5 Luque/Hassan ITD -125 $18.75 for $15 Francis Ngannou -115 $17.25 for $15

My betting results:

+ Show Spoiler +

This was my best night of betting in a long time, and what's great about it, I felt SUPER confident going into it. The only thing that makes me a little sad is that I was #1 on DraftKings after Overeem won, and I was 43 points ahead of the guys who were closest to take over my thrown (mostly Cerrone backers), and then RDA gets a 1st round KO that bumped so many people ahead of me. So I went from looking at $4,000 to looking at $50 for my highest scoring team.

Regarding live betting, it couldn't have gone better... I was reading every fight so well, and I made sure not to go big pre-fight on fights I was uncertain of. I took advantage of a ton of big spots.


Bookmaker profit: $352.36, which equals 35.2 units of profit.
DraftKings profit: $97 winnings - $62 spent on teams = $35 profit


Rafael dos Anjos -200 $60 for $30
Donald Cerrone +190 $20 for $38
Cerrone/RDA u4.5 +125 $20 for $25
JDS $12.50 for $10
Overeem/JDS o1.5 +130 $10 for $13
Alistair Overeem submission +1500 $3 for $45
Nate Diaz +380 $5 for $19
Nate Diaz +414 $5 for $20.70
Nate $10 for $24.70
Nate $34 for $17
MJ $10 for $53.20
Nate Diaz submission +750 $3 for $22.50
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +170 $15 for $25.50
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +160 $10 for $16
Karolina $16.65 for $15
Karolina $10 for $16.10
Karolina $10 for $35.60
Randa Markos submission +430 $5.81 for $25
Charles Oliveira +105 $15 for $15.75
Charles Oliveira +125 $10 for $12.50
C.B. Dollaway KO/TKO/DQ +150 $5 for $7.50
Nate Marquardt submission +1025 $2 for $20.50
Valentina Shevchenko +180 $20 for $36
Shevchenko $35 for $20
Valentina Shevchenko submission +1325 $5 for $66.25
Shevchenko/Kaufman u2.5 +180 $5 for $9
Tamdan McCrory +145 $50 for $72.50
McCrory/Samman u1.5 +110 $10 for $11
Nik Lentz -125 $12.50 for $10
Nik Lentz -110 $11 for $10
Nik Lentz decision +204 $10 for $20.40
Castillo +311 $9.62
[yellow]Cole Miller +100 $10 for $10
Cole Miller submission +350 $5 for $17.50[/yellow]
Edwards/Usman u2.5 +150 $5 for $7.50
Kamaru Usman submission +498 $5 for $24.90
Hayder Hassan -115 $5.75 for $5
Luque/Hassan ITD -125 $18.75 for $15
Francis Ngannou -115 $17.25 for $15

Results for the night: + $1160

+ Show Spoiler +

Results for the year: + $5365.25

Weidman 10k swing taking a shot set me back. Wrong guy to pick to take a shot on and admittedly made some huge mistakes this year, but learned a lot and had a great first year of taking this seriously. Looking forward to next year because the sport is clearly in a small boom period and it could get bigger if things go well like they did this year. That means more Rousey type lines.

GG ya'll, good year and I'm glad it seemed like everyone did well tonight.

Happy NY and thanks for making these threads Rican.

PS: Nate Diaz is the shit, Michael Johnson is a warrior, and Henry Hooft is kind of a shitty head coach.

Yeah, I think most, or all of us in this thread won money tonight. Hopefully 2016 brings us more easy and entertaining cards like this.

Events in January 2016:

• UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (2nd)
• Invicta FC 15: Cyborg vs. Ibragimova (16th)
• UFC FN 81: Dillashaw vs. Cruz (17th)
• WSOF 27: Future Champs (23rd)
• Bellator 148: Koscheck vs. Secor (29th)
• UFC on Fox 18: Rumble vs. Bader (30th)

Regarding UFC 195, there's some good money to be made, so I look forward to it.

I start school at the end of January, so I'm gonna try and grind out as much money as possible before I take my usual break from betting.

Happy Holidays to everyone in this thread : whamm!, LikeASet, Floofy, iakim322, northsails, Spitfiree, Stim_Abuser, soberstone, TianYuan, Minsk, jvilla777, drone666, ERASA, traxamillion, NotSorry, alejandicto, [GiTM]-Ace, and even flounder44's whining self.

happy holidays everyone and thanks for always creating those threads, PuertoRican

I need to start betting on a site that accepts my country's deposits. Just for fun during weekends. Draftkings etc doesn't
Happy holidays LP

Overeem went from being a freight truck that always walked forward to the most tentative striker in the HW division come on I get some measuring and caution but throwing 3 strikes per round is boring as fuck.


I was pretty surprised that JDS was as passive as Reem

Well JDS is a bit of a counter striker isn't he (or am I crazy here? I don't watch HW that often lol)? Overeem gave him nothing to work with (not blaming him tho, he got going once he had things figured out).

And happy christmas/holidays to y'all as well=]

Hey PR cheers for the mma threads and also floofy for that one time he did it haha. Won some monies on mma betting to end the year but still betting low stakes tho. Cheers for the bets as well soberstone.

Happy New Years LP.

Happy holidays !

For me Overeem looked great. Obviously when you get starched by such an inferior strikers like Bigfoot Silva, Ben Rothwell and Travis Browne you need to make some adjustments to your game and The Reem under Greg Jackson in his last few fights showed great improvements. In this fight he made JDS looking clueless standing up. Yes the beating he took from Cain have def took its toll on Cigano, but he always needed his opponents to stay right in front of him to unload his combinations. Alistair kept great lateral movement, frequently changing stances keeping him guessing and was never in danger.

I always thought that Overeem has the best skills in the heavyweight div. His downfall has been his poor fight IQ, cardio and chin. It looks like the first 2 things have improved massively and he is very much aware of his weaknesses now. I can deffo see him taking that belt in 2016.

Enjoyed this card so much. BARNCAT FTW!!

Happy holidays guys !

Yes I also liked this card much better than the McGregor one

On December 21 2015 12:43 Spitfiree wrote: Happy holidays guys ! Yes I also liked this card much better than the McGregor one

I disagree

Both main events were a bit "similar"
Co-Main of ufc194 was WAYYYYY Better than fox's co main.
third fight i do admit was better on this Fox card, but the souza fight was pretty good too
the Maia fight was obviously way better than the Markos fight.

Overall i think they were both great main cards.

Soon as I heard RDA and Werdum were both being trained by Rafael Cordero and winning right now I knew it was a bad bet..

On December 20 2015 10:11 PuertoRican wrote: Yeah, I think most, or all of us in this thread won money tonight. Hopefully 2016 brings us more easy and entertaining cards like this. Events in January 2016: • UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (2nd) • Invicta FC 15: Cyborg vs. Ibragimova (16th) • UFC FN 81: Dillashaw vs. Cruz (17th) • WSOF 27: Future Champs (23rd) • Bellator 148: Koscheck vs. Secor (29th) • UFC on Fox 18: Rumble vs. Bader (30th) Regarding UFC 195, there's some good money to be made, so I look forward to it. I start school at the end of January, so I'm gonna try and grind out as much money as possible before I take my usual break from betting. Happy Holidays to everyone in this thread : whamm!, LikeASet, Floofy, iakim322, northsails, Spitfiree, Stim_Abuser, soberstone, TianYuan, Minsk, jvilla777, drone666, ERASA, traxamillion, NotSorry, alejandicto, [GiTM]-Ace, and even flounder44's whining self.

Happy Holidays MVP

On December 20 2015 10:11 PuertoRican wrote: Yeah, I think most, or all of us in this thread won money tonight. Hopefully 2016 brings us more easy and entertaining cards like this. Events in January 2016: • UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit (2nd) • Invicta FC 15: Cyborg vs. Ibragimova (16th) • UFC FN 81: Dillashaw vs. Cruz (17th) • WSOF 27: Future Champs (23rd) • Bellator 148: Koscheck vs. Secor (29th) • UFC on Fox 18: Rumble vs. Bader (30th) Regarding UFC 195, there's some good money to be made, so I look forward to it. I start school at the end of January, so I'm gonna try and grind out as much money as possible before I take my usual break from betting. Happy Holidays to everyone in this thread : whamm!, LikeASet, Floofy, iakim322, northsails, Spitfiree, Stim_Abuser, soberstone, TianYuan, Minsk, jvilla777, drone666, ERASA, traxamillion, NotSorry, alejandicto, [GiTM]-Ace, and even flounder44's whining self.

Happy holidays bud! Definitely appreciate the threads which help us discuss MMA here, and the insight on MMA.

I'm still butthurt about Cerrone losing to RDA - kinda lost hope for the guy to win a belt now
The Reem is just very unreliable, sure he looks great when he's not hit ONCE clean. Anyone in LW or even big MW could knock his ass out with a clean shot. He will probably go back to his douchey style soon enough.

On December 29 2015 17:26 whamm! wrote: I'm still butthurt about Cerrone losing to RDA - kinda lost hope for the guy to win a belt now The Reem is just very unreliable, sure he looks great when he's not hit ONCE clean. Anyone in LW or even big MW could knock his ass out with a clean shot. He will probably go back to his douchey style soon enough.

Overeem is legit.

He's got the moves, the power, and he now has good cardio.

^^ Nah bro, every fight with the reem it's just like if he gets hit once it's over lol