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UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson

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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 27 2015 07:30. Posts 13024

Date: Saturday, October 3rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Daniel Cormier (16-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (16-3) (Light Heavyweight Championship)
Johny Hendricks (17-3) vs. Tyron Woodley (15-3) (Welterweight)
Ryan Bader (19-4) vs. Rashad Evans (19-3-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Shawn Jordan (18-6) vs. Ruslan Magomedov (13-1) (Heavyweight)
Jessica Eye (11-3) vs. Julianna Pena (6-2) (Women's Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Joseph Benavidez (22-4) vs. Ali Bagautinov (13-3) (Flyweight)
Yair Rodriguez (5-1) vs. Dan Hooker (12-5) (Featherweight)
Alan Jouban (12-3) vs. Albert Tumenov (15-2) (Welterweight)
Rose Namajunas (2-2) vs. Angela Hill (2-1) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Islam Makhachev (12-0) vs. Adriano Martins (27-7) (Lightweight)
Chris Cariaso (17-7) vs. Sergio Pettis (12-2) (Flyweight)
Derrick Lewis (12-4) vs. Viktor Pesta (10-1) (Heavyweight)
Francisco Trevino (12-1) vs. Sage Northcutt (5-0) (Lightweight)

Other

- The event is expected to be headlined by a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout between current champion Daniel Cormier and top contender Alexander Gustafsson. The bout was initially linked as the event headliner for UFC 191. However, the bout was postponed to this event as a result of Cormier's knee injury.
- Leslie Smith was expected to face Raquel Pennington at this event. However, Smith was forced to pull out of the event due to injury and Pennington was rebooked against a separate opponent at another event.
- Anthony Hamilton was expected to face Derrick Lewis at the event. However, Hamilton was pulled from the bout and replaced by Viktor Pesta.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 03/10/2015 08:13

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 27 2015 07:35. Posts 13024

First impression of the match-ups:

• Cormier > Gustafsson
• Hendricks > Woodley
• Evans > Bader
• Jordan > Magomedov
• Pena > Eye
• Benavidez > Bagautinov (close fight on paper)
• Rodriguez > Hooker
• Tumenov > Jouban
• Namajunas > Hill
• Makhachev vs. Martins (dunno)
• Pettis > Cariaso
• Lewis > Pesta
• Northcutt > Trevino

Rekrul is a newb 

northsails   Bulgaria. Sep 27 2015 11:52. Posts 410

Cormier and Gustafsson is a very interesting match up and in my opinion very close one.

I really don't think that DC should be that big of a favorite, so I am laying big bet on Gus at + 300 odds. Gus wrestling is good and combined with his movement and length I really think he has a very good shot to win this fight. He had problems against AJ's pressure, but it should be noted that Rumble is very good at cutting the ring and Cormier more or less comes in straight line. Of course it is not going to be shocking at all if Cormier comes in and starts landing overhand rights and grinds Gustaffson down, but the way they match up, I really feel Gus is good enough to stay away from the clinch and the grappling and beat DC's up from outside. I think betting Gus is great value.

Also I am thinking about betting Ryan Bader. I am not his biggest fan and I think he sucks bad, but Rashad is coming after 2 years layoff, He is getting old at 36 and he has not fought anybody good since Jon Jones. He lost to Lil Nog, took a split from Hendo and beat up undersized and terrible Chael. I truly believe Rashad is done and Bader should take that win.


soberstone   United States. Sep 27 2015 17:23. Posts 2662

Yay quality thread is back. Thanks Rican.

Cormier > Gus - Odds too wide though
Hendricks > Woodley
Bader - Evans - Pickem
Magomedov > Jordan
Pena - Eye - Pickem
Benavidez > Bagutinov
Rodriguez > Hooker
Tumenov > Jouban
Namajunas > Hill
Makhachev > Martins
Pettis > Cariaso - lock of the card, obviously the knock on Pettis is his chin but Cariaso is picked for a reason, he doesn't hit very hard at all and is completely out-matched
Pesta > Lewis
Northcutt > Trevino

Bets so far (I think this is a key card to beating the lines as I really like the favorites for the most part and think they opened at a value but will close within proper no-bet range)

Summary on bets because there are always a million of them and there are a million weird parlays:
- Largest on Pettis. All parlays tie to him and have a large straight bet on him. Will be a shitty night if he loses and most likely great night if he wins.
- Also large on Northcutt not just because he's a hit-shit prospect but Trevino is awful.
- Honerable Mention Large on Tumenov, Hendricks, Gustaffson who I'm also big on.

I'll bet looking to smash Machachev, just waiting for him to become a bigger dog hopefully due to Martins name value. Machachev is by no means a lock but is absolutely a better fighter in my reality. He just hasn't done anything to prove it yet, so I'm looking for some solid odds.

+ Show Spoiler +

 Last edit: 03/10/2015 18:55

Minsk   United States. Sep 27 2015 21:30. Posts 1558

Magomedov is on another level from Jordan. Jordan's only chance to win is some kind of lucky strike very early. Techinically Magomedov is 10 levels above him.
I really think Magomedov is very good, and he ducked everything from Copeland, will probably be able to do the same.


iakim322   United States. Sep 28 2015 03:43. Posts 1335

Cormier > Gus - Don't like odds but don't hate them either
Bader > Evans - Just can't back a fighter coming off a long injury layoff against such a busy fighter even if Bader doesn't have the greatest fight IQ
Eye > Pena - As the dog
Jordan > Magomedov
Namajunas > Hill - Decision. A little crazy to think her hype wasn't that long ago and she was pretty close to catching a genuine beating from JJ. Not the soft one she got from Esparza


Zadan   Canada. Sep 28 2015 05:54. Posts 971

Agree with soberstone's picks

I'm actually surprised Pettis odds is that high, I thought it'd be lower, which actually worries me what oddsmakers are thinking


soberstone   United States. Sep 28 2015 19:08. Posts 2662


  On September 28 2015 02:43 iakim322 wrote:
Cormier > Gus - Don't like odds but don't hate them either
Bader > Evans - Just can't back a fighter coming off a long injury layoff against such a busy fighter even if Bader doesn't have the greatest fight IQ
Eye > Pena - As the dog
Jordan > Magomedov
Namajunas > Hill - Decision. A little crazy to think her hype wasn't that long ago and she was pretty close to catching a genuine beating from JJ. Not the soft one she got from Esparza



I'm with you here. I do think if they both come in at the same level as their last fights, Eye wins by decision a ton of the time. I think almost nobody will be betting/picking Eye and am just waiting for the public to drive up the odds. Really don't see either women getting a finish - Pena's success has all come based off her athleticism - her technique is complete trash (maybe that's improved a lot since she is young and inexperienced, but I'm willing to bet against it at big + money). The two likely scenarios I see are Eye boxing up Pena and staying out of the clinch and off the ground enough to win a decision, or Pena getting takedowns and probably stalling out on top with some mediocre ground and pound for large portions of the fight for a decision. Either way, I like the over in a big way.

Ofcourse, it's WMMA so that increases the chances of a terrible grappling mistake that leads to a submission, but that's about the only way I see a finish besides some major improvement by Pena either on the feet (where Eye's chin is very bad, or on the ground, where Eye's submission defense is mediocre and basic). I'll bet against any of that happening at the current over odds and will smash Jessica Eye if she gets to +300 (the decision prop will probably be almost the exact same odds as her moneyline so I doubt it will be worth taking).

I think its pretty funny how everyone was convinced Miesha was gonna win and therefore when she did they act like Eye had no chance at all. In reality, Eye was mopping her for 3+ minutes, got caught with a decent shot and shockingly got dropped (hence the chin comment) which changed the entire complexion of the fight.

If they re-made that fight again, I'd still take Eye Decision at +400 like last time, but unlike last time - I wouldn't even bother hedging with Miesha SU (broke even on the fight because I listened to a bunch of other people and we all got lucky IMO - no way Miesha wins that fight over 85 percent of the time which is what would have been necessary for it to be more than a break-even bet with her implied odds at 80 percent).

 Last edit: 28/09/2015 19:13

soberstone   United States. Sep 28 2015 19:19. Posts 2662


  On September 27 2015 20:30 Minsk wrote:
Magomedov is on another level from Jordan. Jordan's only chance to win is some kind of lucky strike very early. Techinically Magomedov is 10 levels above him.
I really think Magomedov is very good, and he ducked everything from Copeland, will probably be able to do the same.



I agree that Magomedov is a much better technical fighter than Shawn Jordan but at HW that doesn't always mean much. Shawn Jordan could just beat him via pure athleticism and strength or ofcourse the early KO is totally envision-able. Still, I favor Magomedov pretty significantly, as I believe he should win the vast majority of the time if he fights smart, uses his tremendous footwork, and picks Jordan apart which would allow him to avoid eating a huge shot or getting stuck on bottom (which could be a disaster for him even with a solid ground game, Jordan is just so heavy) - but I certainly wouldn't bank a lot of money on it (I do have a bit on him).

IMO, the Copeland fight is completely irrelevant as Copeland is absolute trash and about 1/10th the athlete and therefore presents about 1/10th the danger that Shawn Jordan does even though they both are equally terrible fighters technically speaking.

 Last edit: 28/09/2015 19:31

iakim322   United States. Sep 29 2015 02:29. Posts 1335

Had 0 idea why Copeland was used as a barometer for anything in any argument. I had to make sure it was the same guy referenced.

I think the notion that Gus will give DC problems in part due to DC having problems with that 'similar build' of a tall rangy fighter like Jon Jones is kinda garbage. Yeah Jones had a tough fight with Gus so the urge to compare is there but Jon is awesome at controlling fighting distance. Probably the best we've ever seen. And Gus has some striking unpredictability too but still not like Jon. So DC walking in to close the range on Gus (which apparently people think he'll have a problem with)...just going to feel so much easier for him as opposed to when he thinks back to doing that to Jon.


iakim322   United States. Sep 29 2015 02:30. Posts 1335

Gus does have underrated wrestling but that can't really be too much of a problem for DC if it's in that wheelhouse


soberstone   United States. Sep 29 2015 03:14. Posts 2662


  On September 29 2015 01:29 iakim322 wrote:
Had 0 idea why Copeland was used as a barometer for anything in any argument. I had to make sure it was the same guy referenced.

I think the notion that Gus will give DC problems in part due to DC having problems with that 'similar build' of a tall rangy fighter like Jon Jones is kinda garbage. Yeah Jones had a tough fight with Gus so the urge to compare is there but Jon is awesome at controlling fighting distance. Probably the best we've ever seen. And Gus has some striking unpredictability too but still not like Jon. So DC walking in to close the range on Gus (which apparently people think he'll have a problem with)...just going to feel so much easier for him as opposed to when he thinks back to doing that to Jon.



That's a really good point. On the other side of the coin though, Gus has a really good long quick jab on the move laterally, which Jones doesn't have at all, and that would seem to be one the better traditional strikes to employ against a DC-type. It's certainly easier to train for though on DC's side, I agree.

Rumble clipped DC good and DC certainly showed off a hell of a beard, but his overall game-plan, which was brilliant, to just weather the storm and gas him out was never really tested so his stock didn't really raise for me in that fight. It actually rose for me in his loss to Jones because I've always been really high on the guy... anyway, I really don't know how likely it is to matter.... I feel like the odds are wide but I'm not as confident as others who are actually picking Gus outright. It just feels like people have gotten too low on Gus following his Rumble KO.

 Last edit: 29/09/2015 03:15

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 29 2015 06:23. Posts 13024





Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 30/09/2015 06:15

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 30 2015 02:22. Posts 13024



Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Sep 30 2015 05:38. Posts 2662

I enjoy Firas Zahabi's little breakdowns. There's no way he can touch on all the relevant points in 4 minutes but the points he does touch he explains nicely and concisely, and the man obviously knows his shit so there's no need to take any of his generalities with grains of salt.

I just think his fighters are always boring as fuck to watch with the exception of Rory - never thought he was boring even when it was his MO.


iakim322   United States. Sep 30 2015 06:48. Posts 1335

Thoughts on Hooker's upset chances and the Lewis/Pesta fight?

I like Yair's potential but think he can be vulnerable as he is now.

Never seen Pesta fight.


PuertoRican   United States. Sep 30 2015 08:23. Posts 13024


  On September 30 2015 05:48 iakim322 wrote:
Thoughts on Hooker's upset chances and the Lewis/Pesta fight?

I like Yair's potential but think he can be vulnerable as he is now.

Never seen Pesta fight.



I see value in Hooker at his current line of +200 or better. I'd wait and see where his line moves. Yair will probably get bet more as we get closer to fight-day.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Sep 30 2015 17:37. Posts 2662

Hooker is super game and I really like him as a fighter. Obviously Rodriguez is a studly looking little prospect. Everything about his game seems pretty awesome except his wrestling, which won't matter here. I think the odds of Hooker winning are pretty slim based on the style matchup. Both guys are high output fighters but Rodriguez has way more tools in the tool-box, is a much much better athlete and will be moving around a lot more, and his cardio is redic, he's like the only guy who didn't gas out on that Mexico card. I see him winning a decision a lot of the time, but if there happens to be a finish I suppose both guys would have similar chances.

I think Pesta and Magomedov are probably the two best HW prospects the UFC has (I could be forgetting someone) and will both win. Derrick Lewis is always live obviously, but I think his chances are slim as well. Pesta is an awesome athlete, and very well rounded for a HW. If he gets on top after a minute or so, fight is over.





Zadan   Canada. Sep 30 2015 18:40. Posts 971

Chris Cariaso vs Sergio Pettis

There's a lot of hype on Pettis still and I'm not sure I quite buy into it. He's shown a questionable chin at times and he is certainly still developing as a fighter. In my mind this comes down to the martial artist vs the fighter. If Pettis can manage to weather the power strikes that Cariaso will inevitably land and keep his composure then he has a good chance here. The question on Cariaso's side is how he'll deal with the wrestling of Pettis. He's had issues with wrestlers in the past who are able to keep him pinned. While dangerous from his back, Cariaso isn't going to win any rounds from there. From what I've seen of both fighters I'm going to have to go against the grain on this one. I don't think Pettis is quite ready for this fight. Cariaso will do his best to turn this into a brawl and keep things standing long enough to put a beating on Pettis.

Chris Cariaso by Decision


EHHH


PuertoRican   United States. Sep 30 2015 21:42. Posts 13024


  On September 30 2015 17:40 Zadan wrote:
Chris Cariaso vs Sergio Pettis

There's a lot of hype on Pettis still and I'm not sure I quite buy into it. He's shown a questionable chin at times and he is certainly still developing as a fighter. In my mind this comes down to the martial artist vs the fighter. If Pettis can manage to weather the power strikes that Cariaso will inevitably land and keep his composure then he has a good chance here. The question on Cariaso's side is how he'll deal with the wrestling of Pettis. He's had issues with wrestlers in the past who are able to keep him pinned. While dangerous from his back, Cariaso isn't going to win any rounds from there. From what I've seen of both fighters I'm going to have to go against the grain on this one. I don't think Pettis is quite ready for this fight. Cariaso will do his best to turn this into a brawl and keep things standing long enough to put a beating on Pettis.

Chris Cariaso by Decision
EHHH



1. Cariaso isn't a powerful striker. You might be the only person who has ever worried about his power.

2. Pettis isn't a wrestler. You might be the only person who has thought of him as one.

3. If I were going to bet this match, I'd have no problem paying -185 or better for Cariaso's point spread.

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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