UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson

Date: Saturday, October 3rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (PPV)

Daniel Cormier (16-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (16-3) (Light Heavyweight Championship)
Johny Hendricks (17-3) vs. Tyron Woodley (15-3) (Welterweight)
Ryan Bader (19-4) vs. Rashad Evans (19-3-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Shawn Jordan (18-6) vs. Ruslan Magomedov (13-1) (Heavyweight)
Jessica Eye (11-3) vs. Julianna Pena (6-2) (Women's Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Joseph Benavidez (22-4) vs. Ali Bagautinov (13-3) (Flyweight)
Yair Rodriguez (5-1) vs. Dan Hooker (12-5) (Featherweight)
Alan Jouban (12-3) vs. Albert Tumenov (15-2) (Welterweight)
Rose Namajunas (2-2) vs. Angela Hill (2-1) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Islam Makhachev (12-0) vs. Adriano Martins (27-7) (Lightweight)
Chris Cariaso (17-7) vs. Sergio Pettis (12-2) (Flyweight)
Derrick Lewis (12-4) vs. Viktor Pesta (10-1) (Heavyweight)
Francisco Trevino (12-1) vs. Sage Northcutt (5-0) (Lightweight)

Other

- The event is expected to be headlined by a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout between current champion Daniel Cormier and top contender Alexander Gustafsson. The bout was initially linked as the event headliner for UFC 191. However, the bout was postponed to this event as a result of Cormier's knee injury.
- Leslie Smith was expected to face Raquel Pennington at this event. However, Smith was forced to pull out of the event due to injury and Pennington was rebooked against a separate opponent at another event.
- Anthony Hamilton was expected to face Derrick Lewis at the event. However, Hamilton was pulled from the bout and replaced by Viktor Pesta.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Cormier > Gustafsson
• Hendricks > Woodley
• Evans > Bader
• Jordan > Magomedov
• Pena > Eye
• Benavidez > Bagautinov (close fight on paper)
• Rodriguez > Hooker
• Tumenov > Jouban
• Namajunas > Hill
• Makhachev vs. Martins (dunno)
• Pettis > Cariaso
• Lewis > Pesta
• Northcutt > Trevino

Cormier and Gustafsson is a very interesting match up and in my opinion very close one.

I really don't think that DC should be that big of a favorite, so I am laying big bet on Gus at + 300 odds. Gus wrestling is good and combined with his movement and length I really think he has a very good shot to win this fight. He had problems against AJ's pressure, but it should be noted that Rumble is very good at cutting the ring and Cormier more or less comes in straight line. Of course it is not going to be shocking at all if Cormier comes in and starts landing overhand rights and grinds Gustaffson down, but the way they match up, I really feel Gus is good enough to stay away from the clinch and the grappling and beat DC's up from outside. I think betting Gus is great value.

Also I am thinking about betting Ryan Bader. I am not his biggest fan and I think he sucks bad, but Rashad is coming after 2 years layoff, He is getting old at 36 and he has not fought anybody good since Jon Jones. He lost to Lil Nog, took a split from Hendo and beat up undersized and terrible Chael. I truly believe Rashad is done and Bader should take that win.

Yay quality thread is back. Thanks Rican.

Cormier > Gus - Odds too wide though
Hendricks > Woodley
Bader - Evans - Pickem
Magomedov > Jordan
Pena - Eye - Pickem
Benavidez > Bagutinov
Rodriguez > Hooker
Tumenov > Jouban
Namajunas > Hill
Makhachev > Martins
Pettis > Cariaso - lock of the card, obviously the knock on Pettis is his chin but Cariaso is picked for a reason, he doesn't hit very hard at all and is completely out-matched
Pesta > Lewis
Northcutt > Trevino

Bets so far (I think this is a key card to beating the lines as I really like the favorites for the most part and think they opened at a value but will close within proper no-bet range)

Summary on bets because there are always a million of them and there are a million weird parlays:
- Largest on Pettis. All parlays tie to him and have a large straight bet on him. Will be a shitty night if he loses and most likely great night if he wins.
- Also large on Northcutt not just because he's a hit-shit prospect but Trevino is awful.
- Honerable Mention Large on Tumenov, Hendricks, Gustaffson who I'm also big on.

I'll bet looking to smash Machachev, just waiting for him to become a bigger dog hopefully due to Martins name value. Machachev is by no means a lock but is absolutely a better fighter in my reality. He just hasn't done anything to prove it yet, so I'm looking for some solid odds.

+ Show Spoiler +

Magomedov is on another level from Jordan. Jordan's only chance to win is some kind of lucky strike very early. Techinically Magomedov is 10 levels above him.
I really think Magomedov is very good, and he ducked everything from Copeland, will probably be able to do the same.

Cormier > Gus - Don't like odds but don't hate them either
Bader > Evans - Just can't back a fighter coming off a long injury layoff against such a busy fighter even if Bader doesn't have the greatest fight IQ
Eye > Pena - As the dog
Jordan > Magomedov
Namajunas > Hill - Decision. A little crazy to think her hype wasn't that long ago and she was pretty close to catching a genuine beating from JJ. Not the soft one she got from Esparza

Agree with soberstone's picks

I'm actually surprised Pettis odds is that high, I thought it'd be lower, which actually worries me what oddsmakers are thinking

On September 28 2015 02:43 iakim322 wrote: Cormier > Gus - Don't like odds but don't hate them either Bader > Evans - Just can't back a fighter coming off a long injury layoff against such a busy fighter even if Bader doesn't have the greatest fight IQ Eye > Pena - As the dog Jordan > Magomedov Namajunas > Hill - Decision. A little crazy to think her hype wasn't that long ago and she was pretty close to catching a genuine beating from JJ. Not the soft one she got from Esparza

I'm with you here. I do think if they both come in at the same level as their last fights, Eye wins by decision a ton of the time. I think almost nobody will be betting/picking Eye and am just waiting for the public to drive up the odds. Really don't see either women getting a finish - Pena's success has all come based off her athleticism - her technique is complete trash (maybe that's improved a lot since she is young and inexperienced, but I'm willing to bet against it at big + money). The two likely scenarios I see are Eye boxing up Pena and staying out of the clinch and off the ground enough to win a decision, or Pena getting takedowns and probably stalling out on top with some mediocre ground and pound for large portions of the fight for a decision. Either way, I like the over in a big way.

Ofcourse, it's WMMA so that increases the chances of a terrible grappling mistake that leads to a submission, but that's about the only way I see a finish besides some major improvement by Pena either on the feet (where Eye's chin is very bad, or on the ground, where Eye's submission defense is mediocre and basic). I'll bet against any of that happening at the current over odds and will smash Jessica Eye if she gets to +300 (the decision prop will probably be almost the exact same odds as her moneyline so I doubt it will be worth taking).

I think its pretty funny how everyone was convinced Miesha was gonna win and therefore when she did they act like Eye had no chance at all. In reality, Eye was mopping her for 3+ minutes, got caught with a decent shot and shockingly got dropped (hence the chin comment) which changed the entire complexion of the fight.

If they re-made that fight again, I'd still take Eye Decision at +400 like last time, but unlike last time - I wouldn't even bother hedging with Miesha SU (broke even on the fight because I listened to a bunch of other people and we all got lucky IMO - no way Miesha wins that fight over 85 percent of the time which is what would have been necessary for it to be more than a break-even bet with her implied odds at 80 percent).

On September 27 2015 20:30 Minsk wrote: Magomedov is on another level from Jordan. Jordan's only chance to win is some kind of lucky strike very early. Techinically Magomedov is 10 levels above him. I really think Magomedov is very good, and he ducked everything from Copeland, will probably be able to do the same.

I agree that Magomedov is a much better technical fighter than Shawn Jordan but at HW that doesn't always mean much. Shawn Jordan could just beat him via pure athleticism and strength or ofcourse the early KO is totally envision-able. Still, I favor Magomedov pretty significantly, as I believe he should win the vast majority of the time if he fights smart, uses his tremendous footwork, and picks Jordan apart which would allow him to avoid eating a huge shot or getting stuck on bottom (which could be a disaster for him even with a solid ground game, Jordan is just so heavy) - but I certainly wouldn't bank a lot of money on it (I do have a bit on him).

IMO, the Copeland fight is completely irrelevant as Copeland is absolute trash and about 1/10th the athlete and therefore presents about 1/10th the danger that Shawn Jordan does even though they both are equally terrible fighters technically speaking.

Had 0 idea why Copeland was used as a barometer for anything in any argument. I had to make sure it was the same guy referenced.

I think the notion that Gus will give DC problems in part due to DC having problems with that 'similar build' of a tall rangy fighter like Jon Jones is kinda garbage. Yeah Jones had a tough fight with Gus so the urge to compare is there but Jon is awesome at controlling fighting distance. Probably the best we've ever seen. And Gus has some striking unpredictability too but still not like Jon. So DC walking in to close the range on Gus (which apparently people think he'll have a problem with)...just going to feel so much easier for him as opposed to when he thinks back to doing that to Jon.

Gus does have underrated wrestling but that can't really be too much of a problem for DC if it's in that wheelhouse

On September 29 2015 01:29 iakim322 wrote: Had 0 idea why Copeland was used as a barometer for anything in any argument. I had to make sure it was the same guy referenced. I think the notion that Gus will give DC problems in part due to DC having problems with that 'similar build' of a tall rangy fighter like Jon Jones is kinda garbage. Yeah Jones had a tough fight with Gus so the urge to compare is there but Jon is awesome at controlling fighting distance. Probably the best we've ever seen. And Gus has some striking unpredictability too but still not like Jon. So DC walking in to close the range on Gus (which apparently people think he'll have a problem with)...just going to feel so much easier for him as opposed to when he thinks back to doing that to Jon.

That's a really good point. On the other side of the coin though, Gus has a really good long quick jab on the move laterally, which Jones doesn't have at all, and that would seem to be one the better traditional strikes to employ against a DC-type. It's certainly easier to train for though on DC's side, I agree.

Rumble clipped DC good and DC certainly showed off a hell of a beard, but his overall game-plan, which was brilliant, to just weather the storm and gas him out was never really tested so his stock didn't really raise for me in that fight. It actually rose for me in his loss to Jones because I've always been really high on the guy... anyway, I really don't know how likely it is to matter.... I feel like the odds are wide but I'm not as confident as others who are actually picking Gus outright. It just feels like people have gotten too low on Gus following his Rumble KO.

I enjoy Firas Zahabi's little breakdowns. There's no way he can touch on all the relevant points in 4 minutes but the points he does touch he explains nicely and concisely, and the man obviously knows his shit so there's no need to take any of his generalities with grains of salt.

I just think his fighters are always boring as fuck to watch with the exception of Rory - never thought he was boring even when it was his MO.

Thoughts on Hooker's upset chances and the Lewis/Pesta fight?

I like Yair's potential but think he can be vulnerable as he is now.

Never seen Pesta fight.

On September 30 2015 05:48 iakim322 wrote: Thoughts on Hooker's upset chances and the Lewis/Pesta fight? I like Yair's potential but think he can be vulnerable as he is now. Never seen Pesta fight.

I see value in Hooker at his current line of +200 or better. I'd wait and see where his line moves. Yair will probably get bet more as we get closer to fight-day.

Hooker is super game and I really like him as a fighter. Obviously Rodriguez is a studly looking little prospect. Everything about his game seems pretty awesome except his wrestling, which won't matter here. I think the odds of Hooker winning are pretty slim based on the style matchup. Both guys are high output fighters but Rodriguez has way more tools in the tool-box, is a much much better athlete and will be moving around a lot more, and his cardio is redic, he's like the only guy who didn't gas out on that Mexico card. I see him winning a decision a lot of the time, but if there happens to be a finish I suppose both guys would have similar chances.

I think Pesta and Magomedov are probably the two best HW prospects the UFC has (I could be forgetting someone) and will both win. Derrick Lewis is always live obviously, but I think his chances are slim as well. Pesta is an awesome athlete, and very well rounded for a HW. If he gets on top after a minute or so, fight is over.

Chris Cariaso vs Sergio Pettis

There's a lot of hype on Pettis still and I'm not sure I quite buy into it. He's shown a questionable chin at times and he is certainly still developing as a fighter. In my mind this comes down to the martial artist vs the fighter. If Pettis can manage to weather the power strikes that Cariaso will inevitably land and keep his composure then he has a good chance here. The question on Cariaso's side is how he'll deal with the wrestling of Pettis. He's had issues with wrestlers in the past who are able to keep him pinned. While dangerous from his back, Cariaso isn't going to win any rounds from there. From what I've seen of both fighters I'm going to have to go against the grain on this one. I don't think Pettis is quite ready for this fight. Cariaso will do his best to turn this into a brawl and keep things standing long enough to put a beating on Pettis.

Chris Cariaso by Decision


EHHH

On September 30 2015 17:40 Zadan wrote: Chris Cariaso vs Sergio Pettis There's a lot of hype on Pettis still and I'm not sure I quite buy into it. He's shown a questionable chin at times and he is certainly still developing as a fighter. In my mind this comes down to the martial artist vs the fighter. If Pettis can manage to weather the power strikes that Cariaso will inevitably land and keep his composure then he has a good chance here. The question on Cariaso's side is how he'll deal with the wrestling of Pettis. He's had issues with wrestlers in the past who are able to keep him pinned. While dangerous from his back, Cariaso isn't going to win any rounds from there. From what I've seen of both fighters I'm going to have to go against the grain on this one. I don't think Pettis is quite ready for this fight. Cariaso will do his best to turn this into a brawl and keep things standing long enough to put a beating on Pettis. Chris Cariaso by Decision EHHH

1. Cariaso isn't a powerful striker. You might be the only person who has ever worried about his power.

2. Pettis isn't a wrestler. You might be the only person who has thought of him as one.

3. If I were going to bet this match, I'd have no problem paying -185 or better for Cariaso's point spread.

Cariaso has t-rex arms and is a slow FW, won't be able to get inside punching distance at all. He's at a massive disadvantage everywhere in this fight, especially at kicking range. It would take an epic fail on Pettis's part to lose this fight. I don't buy into his hype, it's simply the fact that he is much, much better than Cariaso everywhere. They do not want Pettis to lose right now. Sean Shelby is a very smart man. Cariaso was picked for a reason.

IMO - the only reason the odds are where they are for this fight is because a lot of people who were buying the Pettis hype remember him getting epically KO'd and upset in his last fight and are probably looking to fade him vs a 'name' which Cariaso has due to him getting fed to Might Mouse.

If Cariaso lands a strike and KO's Pettis or alters the fight that way, so be it, but if he actually outfights him over time, I will quit betting this sport.

This one is out now too!!

I should have stated I didn't write that I copy and pasted from a site

On September 30 2015 21:17 soberstone wrote: Cariaso has t-rex arms and is a slow FW, won't be able to get inside punching distance at all. He's at a massive disadvantage everywhere in this fight, especially at kicking range. It would take an epic fail on Pettis's part to lose this fight. I don't buy into his hype, it's simply the fact that he is much, much better than Cariaso everywhere. They do not want Pettis to lose right now. Sean Shelby is a very smart man. Cariaso was picked for a reason. IMO - the only reason the odds are where they are for this fight is because a lot of people who were buying the Pettis hype remember him getting epically KO'd and upset in his last fight and are probably looking to fade him vs a 'name' which Cariaso has due to him getting fed to Might Mouse. If Cariaso lands a strike and KO's Pettis or alters the fight that way, so be it, but if he actually outfights him over time, I will quit betting this sport.

hahaha

On September 30 2015 23:56 Zadan wrote: I should have stated I didn't write that I copy and pasted from a site

;/

No love for Woodley at + 300?

And Gus dec is at +750 at bet365. I like that line a lot .

I was kind of leaning towards Gus placing bets + parlays on him and just because I like him personally, however I just checked most of dc's past fights and most were all quality opponents.

This has me thinking that Gus has a super slim chance at winning here, I don't even know HOW he is suppose to win vs dc.

Good analysis here from Dominick Cruz for DC - Gus. :

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/25...down-gustafsson-vs-cormier-at-ufc-192

Northcutt looks incredibly athletic. New breed. Hopefully he has a chin and some toughness to go along with it

On October 01 2015 18:11 iakim322 wrote: Northcutt looks incredibly athletic. New breed. Hopefully he has a chin and some toughness to go along with it

I'd hit it.

On October 01 2015 18:11 iakim322 wrote: Northcutt looks incredibly athletic. New breed. Hopefully he has a chin and some toughness to go along with it

Agreed. Doubt this fight tells us much though, Trevino sucks. He's just a tough crafty guy with some okay defensive technique but pretty garbage athleticism and nothing to hang his hat on.

Happy to have gotten Northcutt at -230 but if he blows him out of the water and isn't tested (highly likely), his next fight will probably be a pass. I did see the fight he got KO'd in and it was a clean shot but one that probably shouldn't be KOing a guy of his caliber/ceiling. It's a concern.

Hendricks out. Weight-cutting / health issues.

Pretty surprising despite his history, he was 183 on Wednesday.

Really shitty.

On October 02 2015 16:43 soberstone wrote: Hendricks out. Weight-cutting / health issues. Pretty surprising despite his history, he was 183 on Wednesday. Really shitty.

Fuck that country ass motherfucker.

Hopefully Dana White makes him go up to 185 like he said he was gonna do earlier today.

Thoughts on weigh-ins:

Trevino weighed in at 160, looked fat and clearly didn't try to make the weight, doesn't affect my view of the fight, infact it could potentially benefit him if they grapple a lot

Adriano Martins may have looked a little smaller to me but I'd have to watch old weigh-ins to be sure, either way I already have my bets on Mackachev.

I thought Joe B looked like he had a tough cut and I just added a decent bet on Bagautinov at +275

Evans looked small compared to Bader, wasn't really expecting that but can't take much away from it (looks like money is coming in on Bader though)

DC said he had his best cut ever and his face did indeed look less sunk in than normal at 205. It's actually pretty significant to me personally in a 5 round fight. I just bought out of my little Gus bet at a $5.00 profit and am just playing the props.

On October 02 2015 22:16 soberstone wrote: Thoughts on weigh-ins: I thought Joe B looked like he had a tough cut and I just added a decent bet on Bagautinov at +275 Evans looked small compared to Bader, wasn't really expecting that but can't take much away from it (looks like money is coming in on Bader though)

Joe B looked less drained than usual. If you watch his past weigh-ins, he usually looks like shit. His cheeks are usually super sucked in. I think the fight goes the distance, and there's value on Ali. If I were to bet Ali, I'd bet his Decision like at +425 or better.

Evans being shorter than Bader was expected. Bader is one of the bigger guys in the division, while Evans has always been one of the shorter guys in the top 10 at light heavyweight. People have asked him if he ever thought about going down to 185, but he said no because he has thick legs and it would be worth it. Bader always looks so thick and muscular during the weigh-ins; he wears his weight well, imo.

I agree Ali by decision at +425 would be a better bet. I'm completely with you. Unfortunately my 5dimes is all accounted for and BM doesn't have the props out yet. I might make that bet later.

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/47556...mma-cormier-vs-gustafsson-103-T-free/

$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/47463...mma-cormier-vs-gustafsson-103-T-free/

----------

New Fight Pass start time: 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST

Tumenov looked surprisingly smaller than Jouban. Any read on that fight?

On October 03 2015 07:19 iakim322 wrote: Tumenov looked surprisingly smaller than Jouban. Any read on that fight?

I was a little surprised at the frame difference itself... but big aesthetic muscles don't scare me in a striker vs striker affair where the only potential advantage that was somewhat likely to play out Jouban's favor in the first place was cardio - in fact, that shit could really cost him in the cardio department if he's really carrying around more weight than before (I don't think so though, I think he's the same Jouban and Tumenov is just a smallish WW). Maybe he's gonna come out of nowhere and try to wrestle/submit Tumenov, which would suit his size advantage nicely, but I highly doubt it - he doesn't have an advantage there on paper and never fights like that.

Tumenov is just too good on the feet. He's so good in fact that I could see him wearing the gold one day if he really gets stellar TDD. I think him and Stephen Thompson are clearly the two best pure strikers in the division - yes better than Lawler and Macdonald. Whether they are as tough/durable as those guys is a whole other can of worms.

Tumenov is like Gunnar Nelson - cuts little to no weight, looks the same on fight-night, has a thin natural coating of fat over a rock-solid frame, but is therefore very consistent and shouldn't fade and is very hard to hurt with body shots. I'm good with it.

C'mon Gustafsson !! Let's do this.

Small bets on Gustafsson +300 and Bader +140. Let's go dogs.

Bader ML
Cormier ML
Magomedov ML (Although I'm not nearly as enthusiastic about it as I was at first)
Hooker ML

Thinking about taking O1.5 on Magomedov x Jordan because Magomedov is techincal and good defense, so if he doesn't get KO'ed he probably wont KO Jordan at first. It feels like a flimsy bet though.

I'm glad Lewis got that TKO in the 3rd. Viktor Pesta is such a faggot.

On October 03 2015 22:53 PuertoRican wrote: I'm glad Lewis got that TKO in the 3rd. Viktor Pesta is such a faggot.

+1. even though i just lost a decent amount of money. ROFL at Lewis interview, love that terrible fuck.

Please Mini-Pettis, one time. Anyway it takes, just don't lose please.

It's probably profitable to bet on Lewis in his hometown against a Checkoslovakian there. Crowd wanted him to win, Lewis wanted to win, even the Ref wanted him to win standing him up. You can usually tell in those fights, I've noticed where the loser just feels drained all of the sudden.

Baby pettis is terrible, I already forgot. For some reason you want to think hes good because he almost has to be, but hes a little doll compared to his brother.

It's tricky because he moves kind of the same, so you see the similarity...but has none of the power or timing to a high enough level.

And Cariasco, nobody really knows what the fuck it is that he does.

Holddddddddd Pettis!!!!!

Omg no retarded Shit plz

BAM. OWNAGE. Pettis clearly wins that 9/10 times, decided to stay in guard in 3rd round and not risk any chin issues.

Ladies and gentlemen, Sage NorthGOAT has arrived!

Dude. That was insaaanannnnnnnneeeeeee. That fool is the real deal, but will want to see him tested before betting him at the redic odds hell probably be at. He could be a future champ if he turns out to be tough, not chinny, and a good defensive wrestler.

On October 03 2015 23:08 Minsk wrote: Baby pettis is terrible, I already forgot. For some reason you want to think hes good because he almost has to be, but hes a little doll compared to his brother. It's tricky because he moves kind of the same, so you see the similarity...but has none of the power or timing to a high enough level.

Just because he doesn't have the power of timing of his brother...who happens to be perennially rated top three in the world in his division...doesn't make him shit

I'm really not sure why I kinda idiotically blind bet Pesta and had him in a few of my DK lineups. But anyways, pretty sure the Black Beast is gonna get Mitrioned again when he steps in level again.

And yeah Sage's rise is going to be really fun to watch. The under on this fight seemed like a ridic easy bet. Snuck it in just in time

link for stream ?

Easy win for Thug Rose.

Hill will get her walking papers pretty soon.

Two more somewhat carefully matched wins and then farms can be bet on JJ when Rose gets confident enough

Actually I guess PVZ vs Rose will make for a good, highly promoted match within the next 12-18 months

On October 03 2015 23:53 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On October 03 2015 23:08 Minsk wrote: Baby pettis is terrible, I already forgot. For some reason you want to think hes good because he almost has to be, but hes a little doll compared to his brother. It's tricky because he moves kind of the same, so you see the similarity...but has none of the power or timing to a high enough level. Just because he doesn't have the power of timing of his brother...who happens to be perennially rated top three in the world in his division...doesn't make him shit

I agree. Hes developing. Just when the fight started, I was like "oh no, this is baby pettis again".

"Dear valued customer,

Tonight, we experienced a contest data issue in MMA, causing a fight included in tonight's MMA contests to start and conclude before our scheduled time tonight of 7pm ET. Because it started early, users were able to edit or change lineups in MMA with full knowledge of the results of that fight.

Given that the integrity of tonight's MMA games is impacted by this fight starting early, we have no choice but to cancel the MMA 7pm ET contests and refund all contest entries. This process is underway and refunds will be issued promptly this evening.

We understand the frustration this will cause for our players, and investigated several options, but ultimately determined that this is the only fair and equitable solution for our players. We will be doing a full investigation into the root cause of the start time data being off, and how to prevent this from happening again."

- DraftKings

So shitty and so random. Had Lewis, Pettis, Northcutt already in two lineups. Oh well

Holy shit. Lights out Mackachev. :/

Wow. Like I said. Tumenov is absolutely out of this world on the feet.

Good call on him Soberstone. Never seen Tumenov fight. Actually like Jouban and don't think he's terrible...and Tumenov looked awesome against him. Put a bet on Tumenov to rail you. And fuck had him everywhere on DK.

On October 04 2015 01:09 iakim322 wrote: Good call on him Soberstone. Never seen Tumenov fight. Actually like Jouban and don't think he's terrible...and Tumenov looked awesome against him. Put a bet on Tumenov to rail you. And fuck had him everywhere on DK.

I had Tumenov and Northcutt combined in 9 of my 11 teams, as they were the biggest locks on paper. The only bad bet I made was 2 teams with Islam, as he got knocked the fuck out.

DraftKings just refunded my account for all of my teams.

there's any decent paid site that streams UFC ?? I dont mind paying every month to avoid the headache of searching for streams every event

On October 04 2015 01:30 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On October 04 2015 01:09 iakim322 wrote: Good call on him Soberstone. Never seen Tumenov fight. Actually like Jouban and don't think he's terrible...and Tumenov looked awesome against him. Put a bet on Tumenov to rail you. And fuck had him everywhere on DK. I had Tumenov and Northcutt combined in 9 of my 11 teams, as they were the biggest locks on paper. The only bad bet I made was 2 teams with Islam, as he got knocked the fuck out. DraftKings just refunded my account for all of my teams.

Yeah I just got my refund too.

I had Pettis, Lewis, Northcutt in two.

Tumenov, Pettis, Nortchutt in I think four.

Don't want to know how much the tickets were going to be worth if Bader wins.

Really good main event. Really good card overall.

On October 04 2015 04:51 iakim322 wrote: Really good main event. Really good card overall.

agreed, sick main event
I'm sad gus lost cuz i bet on him but the fight delivered.

Btw its crazy how much better Jones is against Cormier than Gus is.

Besides the snoozers at the beginning of the main event great card.

Betting wise +$600.00. Very solid night. Couple mistakes on Mackachev and Pesta but that's about it, I think the Bagautinov decision bet was the best bet in that particular fight and Gus was clearly live.

I found the Gus fight to be a lot closer than the media did but w/e.

I agreed with the 49-46 DC. But one of those somewhat rare good, close 4-1 fights. Only gave Gus round 2. Round 3 is where he hurt DC really bad but rest of the round was DC. Could've given Gus round 4 I guess but a little too inactive

On October 04 2015 05:04 soberstone wrote: Besides the snoozers at the beginning of the main event great card. Betting wise +$600.00. Very solid night. Couple mistakes on Mackachev and Pesta but that's about it, I think the Bagautinov decision bet was the best bet in that particular fight and Gus was clearly live. I found the Gus fight to be a lot closer than the media did but w/e.

I'm not sure Pesta is a "mistake" tho. Are you sure that isn't result oriented? He was owning pretty hard before Lewis landed that hard punch.

DraftKings fucked me over so bad tonight, I would've cashed in most of my teams...
I wouldn't have taken 1st place since I didn't have Adriano Martins in my teams, but I would've made some decent coin. Too bad there was some "bug" that made them cancel one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, fantasy event for MMA in 2015 thus far.

I won $280 from DraftOps with the 2 teams I made: https://www.draftops.com/#!/mission/7.../3a110259-167a-4606-9840-6006f4c672a4

Regarding the fights, I stopped watching the fight-card during the FS1 prelims since DraftKings had that bug, and I had no other bets on the card. Although, I caught the main event, which was decent, but both guys didn't look their best IMO. I thought both fighters looked better against Jones than they did tonight. Cormier and Gus tired faster tonight, and Gus didn't throw as many strikes as he could've since he was gassed and also focusing on TDD.

We don't have another UFC card until 3 weeks from now (October 24th), so you might as well start researching now while you have time.

Main was sick Cormier a boss.

Funny how much shittier the #4-5 ranked LHW fighters were compared to the #1 and 2 guys in the very next fight. Night and day

At least there are contenders to JBJ now, unlike before when he just stomped ppl it wont be as easy this time

On October 04 2015 16:57 Spitfiree wrote: At least there are contenders to JBJ now, unlike before when he just stomped ppl it wont be as easy this time

Jon Jones has only been gone for 9 months, and nothing has changed in his division. Moreover, the people you see as contenders are the same people who were in the top 10 when he last fought in January 2015.

Jones already beat 7 of the current top 10 fighters in his division: http://www.ufc.com/rankings?redirect=no

The only guys he didn't fight yet are Rumble, Cummins, and Manuwa. Rumble and Cummins are only on 1-win streaks, and were finished in their fights before their most recent win. Manuwa lost his last fight, where he was finished.

Win streak wise, Bader is the only "contender" in the division, and he hasn't looked impressive in his latest wins. His only improvement is that he's more patient now, which let him win a split-decision over Phil Davis. The other guys he beat recently were guys who got out-wrestled or couldn't take him down. Bader is on a 5-fight win streak, and all 5 wins are by decision.

Rumble will have the belt; especially if he can avoid Cormier. Rumble gonna cake Jones

Might've rushed into conclusions indeed
I know he s beaten them, they just seem better .. well Gustafsson at least
Still think DC s drawing dead vs Jones, Rumble would be a nice fight imo

Tbh i hope the rumours are true and Jones goes to heavyweight where his fights will much more contested or at least it ll be a new challenge
Don't think Rumble is better than Jones, but he can certainly beat him in some given circumstances

Rumble is drawing dead against nobody imo.

I think if you can't quickly get Rumble down, your in trouble.

Of course, Jones is a god and i'm sure he can take rumble down, but its def not a lock for Jones.

On October 04 2015 19:31 traxamillion wrote: Rumble will have the belt; especially if he can avoid Cormier. Rumble gonna cake Jones

He does probably have a better shot at beating Jones than DC. I truly believe DC's chin finally may have cracked in his bout with Gus when he ate that knee. He had never even really been hurt before that. Things change when people that are 36 with amazing chins finally get ko/tko'd - which Cormier essentially did but was savvy and tough enough to grind it out. I think if the same Jones comes back he finishes him.

But I wouldn't favor Rumble or anything, I'd throw a small bet on him at around +350 or better vs a returning Jones. But regardless, Jones will finish DC next time IMO.

I'm also curious to see how Alan Jouban holds up in future wars. Without his amazing chin he becomes an average fighter and Tumenov may have cracked his chin permanently, only time will tell - doubt it cuz he's still young but its something to look out for.

Yair Rodriguez is a special fighter. He threw a bunch of brand new techniques effectively. His cardio maybe be an issue based on his style, as well as his defensive wrestling and chin being untested to this point.

Still, I truly believe the undercard/main card has a whole host of people who will fight for the belt:

Sage Northcutt at some point
Sergio Pettis MAYBE if he's lucky but he can beat a lot of people
Albert Tumenov
Yair Rodriguez
Ruslan Magomedov MAYBE if he's lucky (really doubt that one though)
Juliana Pena - ABSOLUTE TRASH as I said before the fight but they want to feed Rousey easy opponents and keep her away from Nunez who could quite possibly KO her

I will be looking to fade Adriano Martins hard in his next fight if the opponent is proper - which I do think he will be. I actually wouldn't mind them throwing Sage Northcutt into deep waters right away with him. He looked old, slow, smaller, and was getting outstruck prior to the KO - which was very nice but lets be honest, Mackachev just made a beginner mistake and learned the hard way that he's not invincible.

I'm not really convinced like others are that Rumble could give Jones problems. Which is a little depressing since that means there'd be no one left. Don't think Rumble can stop Jones from getting into the clinch. Dumped to the floor after that and a few of those nasty elbows will bring out the somewhat questionable heart Rumble has.

Looking forward to seeing a lot more of Northcutt and Tumenov. Tumenov looked more than ready for a top ten opponent in his next fight. Ridiculously fluid

Jones will wipe the floor with Rumble. Due to his power he is live dog against anyone though.

Also I can't really see Jones finishing DC. He has not finished anyone in some time and Cormier is tough. That knee was pretty hard and he ate a clean left hook behind it and was able to recover very good. JJ is not known for his power and I don't see him submitting DC.

I still feel Gus is the hardest match up for Jones in this division. I hope he makes his way up again and we can see this rematch.

I think DC makes a huge mistake in not wrestling more.

He said post fight he wanted to prove he can strike but he didn't really prove that - he wrestled fucked gustafsson 1st round and got half his life bar down and second round and on he is like "now i prove my superior striking skills" and goes on to have a pretty close fight almost getting knocked out.

Jones has faced many KO artists, and he absolutely destroyed them without even looking in danger at any point

On October 05 2015 20:53 CamilaPunt wrote: I think DC makes a huge mistake in not wrestling more. He said post fight he wanted to prove he can strike but he didn't really prove that - he wrestled fucked gustafsson 1st round and got half his life bar down and second round and on he is like "now i prove my superior striking skills" and goes on to have a pretty close fight almost getting knocked out.

I'm quite sure if he thought he had it in the tank to wrestle more... he would have. Picking up a 225 pound dude and flipping him over only for him to get right back up is cool, but is actually a tremendous waste of energy if your not punishing him on the ground, which DC didn't and probably couldn't. How many guys does Gustaffson have to counter-wrestle, punish for takedowns with knees to the body, takedown himself, etc etc before people will give him his credit in the grappling department. I HIGHLY doubt he said "now I have to prove my superior striking skills". More like "fuck this guy is hard to get a hold of and even when I do it takes me way to much energy to get him down".

Gus is Elite. DC is even better, fought his best and won. Good fight.

If someone displays terrible fight IQ I'm all for some good commentary on strategy.... but I'm not with you here.

DC doesn't use GnP in the traditional sense, he usually just takes a guy down and controls their movement to get them off balance and then continues to hit them; this was partially covered in the Jones vs. Cormier thread.

Moreover, as we all know, Gustafsson has sick TDD and above average TDs himself. Once Cormier flipped Gus over and couldn't control him on the ground as well as he thought he could, he probably gave up on wrestling to save energy. That being said, after Gus got flipped, Gus adjusted his movement and kept circling out as fast as possible, which looked like he was running, but he was actually jogging away from the cage and placing himself right in the center of the cage.

Anyway, I still stand by my original statement that while their fight was good, they both didn't look their best. Both gassed out much quicker than they did in their fight against Jon Jones, which made the rest of their game look weak.

I'd like to see Gustafsson versus OSP next, that way Gus can get a win under his belt against a Top 10 fighter and rebuild his confidence and his record. Both guys are coming off of a loss. The only other guy in the Top 10 that he hasn't fought yet and/or is not already booked for a fight is Rampage, and his UFC contract is still in limbo due to the issue with Bellator that he's still dealing with in court.

On October 06 2015 23:55 PuertoRican wrote: DC doesn't use GnP in the traditional sense, he usually just takes a guy down and controls their movement to get them off balance and then continues to hit them; this was partially covered in the Jones vs. Cormier thread. Moreover, as we all know, Gustafsson has sick TDD and above average TDs himself. Once Cormier flipped Gus over and couldn't control him on the ground as well as he thought he could, he probably gave up on wrestling to save energy. That being said, after Gus got flipped, Gus adjusted his movement and kept circling out as fast as possible, which looked like he was running, but he was actually jogging away from the cage and placing himself right in the center of the cage. Anyway, I still stand by my original statement that while their fight was good, they both didn't look their best. Both gassed out much quicker than they did in their fight against Jon Jones, which made the rest of their game look weak. I'd like to see Gustafsson versus OSP next, that way Gus can get a win under his belt against a Top 10 fighter and rebuild his confidence and his record. Both guys are coming off of a loss. The only other guy in the Top 10 that he hasn't fought yet and/or is not already booked for a fight is Rampage, and his UFC contract is still in limbo due to the issue with Bellator that he's still dealing with in court.

+1 on all accounts except I wouldn't agree on the Gus front, I thought he looked as good as ever. When I say DC fought his best fight, I just meant given that while he did look like he was starting to age a bit, he did enough to win over a damn tough matchup. I especially agree wth your statement about Gus's movement. The 'he was running' shit is non-sense. He was re-setting intelligently on the outside in space, just as you said Rican, where he had the best chance. As soon as he re-set he re-engaged. I've seen people get in other people's grills and and just stand there staring, fighting a lot less. The fact that the optics of his 'running' affected people's scorecards just shows how subjective and up for idiocy that MMA judging is unfortunately.

48-47 DC, 49-46 cards are just plain wrong. Gus won 2 & 3. I actually think 48-47 Gus is a better scorecard (leaving aside that the wrong guy wins) than 49-46 DC because you could easily have given Gus rd 4 IMO (where he outstruck a sloppy aggressive DC via Fightmetric), but how the fuck could you not give him 3 where he nearly finished the God Damn fight. That is just people's pre-fight pick bias's creeping in for sure.

And as for Jones, I will stick by what I have always said. He is unarguably the best fighter in the sport on paper but I don't believe he is actually the best P4P fighter in the world. Cormier, the #2 fighter in a shallow division is a dream matchup for him style wise. You really think Jon Jones will have his belt WRESTLED away from him? No, Jon Jones has is an incredible chin, but he does also get hit a lot when he faces a good long striker with decent defensive wrestling - see Machida, Gus, DC, . If Johnson found his range, I don't think any chin can stamp up to what he throws if he lands clean. I don't think he would, and I do think he would gas and lose in most realities, but he is more live than any other fighter at LHW vs Jones, plain and simple, and Jon Jones is by no means invincible. Someone that people THINK is invincible coming off a year+ layoff and still by what I can tell doing the dirty would be a dream dog opportunity if he were to fight a revampled grappling centric Rumble. Fortunately for Jones, Cormier won and Cormier's best days are indeed behind him, this was his pinnacle, and Jones will crush him if they fight. Of that I am nearly sure.

I actually thought Gus won rounds 2/3/4. Sad for him but I like DC a lot as well and Gus is still young. Jones will beat DC handily again I'm afraid.

Jones may have been banging coke the last year and come out shitty as fuck like Cain did. Never liked Jones and think he will lose his comeback fight

On October 06 2015 09:13 Baalim wrote: Jones has faced many KO artists, and he absolutely destroyed them without even looking in danger at any point

None of them even close to as good at it as AJ though. Honestly the only reason he didn't KO DC is DC has a fucking crazy chin.

I mean the dude KO'D Gus and nearly KO'D DC. Only thing that saved DC was a great chin. And both those guys gave Jones a hell of a fight.

Wonder how AJ will look with the new testing, as he's certainly juiced to max.

On October 07 2015 03:32 soberstone wrote: 48-47 DC, 49-46 cards are just plain wrong. Gus won 2 & 3. I actually think 48-47 Gus is a better scorecard (leaving aside that the wrong guy wins) than 49-46 DC because you could easily have given Gus rd 4 IMO (where he outstruck a sloppy aggressive DC via Fightmetric), but how the fuck could you not give him 3 where he nearly finished the God Damn fight. That is just people's pre-fight pick bias's creeping in for sure.

Why would Gus be given the third round because of one great shot followed up by one more good shot when he did almost nothing of significance for the other 4 minutes and 45 seconds. Has nothing to do with pre-fight pick bias. I'd rather have given Gus the 4th round instead of the 3rd. Used to happen in boxing all the time which is what I first started watching where there'd be mass outrage over a round just like that. Becomes a bit subjective on what a person/judge values more. It doesn't become absolute because you think those 15 seconds outweigh the rest of the round. Maybe if it was more of an extended sequence.

Not saying I would say someone has no merit for wanting to give that round to Gus. But it doesn't work the other way around either. One of those fights where I thought DC won 4-1 but I could see a lot of 3-2 DC scores and wouldn't have been shocked if it was Gus 3-2.

On October 07 2015 23:07 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On October 06 2015 09:13 Baalim wrote: Jones has faced many KO artists, and he absolutely destroyed them without even looking in danger at any point None of them even close to as good at it as AJ though. Honestly the only reason he didn't KO DC is DC has a fucking crazy chin. I mean the dude KO'D Gus and nearly KO'D DC. Only thing that saved DC was a great chin. And both those guys gave Jones a hell of a fight. Wonder how AJ will look with the new testing, as he's certainly juiced to max.

Matyushenko, prime Shogun, Rampage, prime Machida, TRT Belfort, Gustaffson, Texeira.


In what universe is AJ a better striker than all of those?

Of all the best guys at 205 ( DC,Gus,AJ). I see Jones having the easiest fight against Rumble. He will dominate him and finish him inside 3 rounds. I am certain of that.

AJ matches up well with Gustaffson ( I will stick pick Gus in a rematch ), but Cormier and Jones will always smash him, even though he is a live dog due to his knockout power.

On October 08 2015 22:13 northsails wrote: Of all the best guys at 205 ( DC,Gus,AJ). I see Jones having the easiest fight against Rumble. He will dominate him and finish him inside 3 rounds. I am certain of that. AJ matches up well with Gustaffson ( I will stick pick Gus in a rematch ), but Cormier and Jones will always smash him, even though he is a live dog due to his knockout power.

you said it yourself, AJ is a live dog against Jones. I think Cormier isn't. Cormier is drawing dead against Jones.

We aren't saying AJ is an hard fight for Jones, he isn't. But AJ is at least a threat.

Well, I don't think Cormier is drawing dead against Jones. He arguably won 2nd and 3rd rounds in their first fight. It is not like he has been blown away. Jones is coming off a 1 year lay off also.

He gassed due to the body shots he ate early in the fight and lost the last rounds, but if the odds are over +250 I will deffo throw some money on DC.

On October 07 2015 23:40 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On October 07 2015 03:32 soberstone wrote: 48-47 DC, 49-46 cards are just plain wrong. Gus won 2 & 3. I actually think 48-47 Gus is a better scorecard (leaving aside that the wrong guy wins) than 49-46 DC because you could easily have given Gus rd 4 IMO (where he outstruck a sloppy aggressive DC via Fightmetric), but how the fuck could you not give him 3 where he nearly finished the God Damn fight. That is just people's pre-fight pick bias's creeping in for sure. Why would Gus be given the third round because of one great shot followed up by one more good shot when he did almost nothing of significance for the other 4 minutes and 45 seconds . Has nothing to do with pre-fight pick bias. I'd rather have given Gus the 4th round instead of the 3rd. Used to happen in boxing all the time which is what I first started watching where there'd be mass outrage over a round just like that. Becomes a bit subjective on what a person/judge values more. It doesn't become absolute because you think those 15 seconds outweigh the rest of the round. Maybe if it was more of an extended sequence.

uhhhh I don't remember any point of the fight past the 1st round where DC dominated 2 minutes straight, let alone 4:45. think you may need a re-watch. if a round is close but clear for 4 minutes and then 1 guy almost finishes the fight multiple times in a 20 second sequence, it's that guys round. it's not rocket science and it shouldn't be that subjective. if you can re-watch the 3rd round and honestly give it to DC, then we just have to agree to disagree, but until then I think you are just remembering very poorly.

On October 08 2015 06:38 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On October 07 2015 23:07 Stim_Abuser wrote:   On October 06 2015 09:13 Baalim wrote: Jones has faced many KO artists, and he absolutely destroyed them without even looking in danger at any point None of them even close to as good at it as AJ though. Honestly the only reason he didn't KO DC is DC has a fucking crazy chin. I mean the dude KO'D Gus and nearly KO'D DC. Only thing that saved DC was a great chin. And both those guys gave Jones a hell of a fight. Wonder how AJ will look with the new testing, as he's certainly juiced to max. Matyushenko, prime Shogun, Rampage, prime Machida, TRT Belfort, Gustaffson, Texeira. In what universe is AJ a better striker than all of those?

rumble by far hits harder than any of those guys ever did; if we are talking purely mass x acceleration of your head bouncing off his fist

On October 08 2015 06:38 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On October 07 2015 23:07 Stim_Abuser wrote:   On October 06 2015 09:13 Baalim wrote: Jones has faced many KO artists, and he absolutely destroyed them without even looking in danger at any point None of them even close to as good at it as AJ though. Honestly the only reason he didn't KO DC is DC has a fucking crazy chin. I mean the dude KO'D Gus and nearly KO'D DC. Only thing that saved DC was a great chin. And both those guys gave Jones a hell of a fight. Wonder how AJ will look with the new testing, as he's certainly juiced to max. Matyushenko, prime Shogun, Rampage, prime Machida, TRT Belfort, Gustaffson, Texeira. In what universe is AJ a better striker than all of those?

Only in the the universe we are living in. Besides that, great point.

Johnson is a superior and more relevantly, more dangerous striker than every single other fighter on that list and its really not even all that close considering we are talking about who is 'live' vs JBJ. You aren't going to win a decision more than a few times out of a hundred vs the Jon Jones that fought DC (because yes, that version was far better than the one that fought Gus) unless you are far better than anyone on this list. Admittedly, he's just too good over 5 rounds to outpoint. You need to finish him - Belfort almost did it with an armbar, there's no reason AJ couldn't split his wig with a well timed counter in the pocket.

And BTW, Johnson is not juiced to the max necessarily - I'd be a fool to say he wasn't for sure - but his body has never morphed (besides when he did extreme weight cutting) - he's just a brick shithouse that hits and kicks harder than anyone else on the planet. Jones is actually the guy who has had some shaky testosterone levels if we are being honest.